ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 661
Avg Goals 2.46
Avg Home 1.35
Avg Away 1.11
Home Win % 42.1%
Draw % 24.4%
Away Win % 33.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 661
Avg Brier Score 0.5621
Pick Accuracy 56.3%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5631
Market Brier 0.5626
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 15
Value Bet Hit Rate 20.0%
ROI (flat stake) 88.3%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 86.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 14 of 661 matches had at least one · staked 15.00, profit 13.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 2 50.0% 2.00 7.00 350.0%
away 13 15.4% 13.00 6.25 48.1%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.3% 2.2% 89
10–20% 15.6% 15.6% 276
20–30% 26.1% 23.9% 785
30–40% 34.2% 33.6% 280
40–50% 45.0% 50.5% 220
50–60% 54.8% 62.0% 150
60–70% 64.9% 63.5% 104
70–80% 74.9% 78.3% 46
80–90% 85.3% 79.2% 24
90–100% 92.1% 100.0% 9
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
19.08.23 Atletico Lanus (W) vs CA Excursionistas (W) 0-0 27% 30% -10.0 26% 28% -6.9 47% 54% -13.2
19.08.23 Boca Juniors (W) vs Huracan (W) 3-0 85% 93% -8.9 10% 11% -0.9 4% 4% 2.1
19.08.23 Racing Club (W) vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) 1-0 57% 67% -15.0 24% 26% -5.3 19% 18% 2.7
20.08.23 CA Independiente (W) vs Defensores de Belgrano (W) 2-0 74% 83% -10.6 18% 19% -7.9 9% 9% -1.3
20.08.23 Social Atletico Television (W) vs CA Banfield (W) 1-3 39% 45% -13.5 29% 32% -10.9 32% 35% -8.2
22.08.23 San Lorenzo (W) vs CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 1-0 53% 63% -15.7 25% 26% -6.2 22% 23% -3.4
25.08.23 Huracan (W) vs Atletico Lanus (W) 2-3 71% 81% -12.4 19% 20% -3.5 10% 9% 10.7
26.08.23 Boca Juniors (W) vs CA Estudiantes Caseros (W) 3-1 84% 92% -8.2 11% 11% -4.4 5% 6% -9.0
26.08.23 CA Excursionistas (W) vs Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 3-1 41% 48% -13.7 28% 31% -10.7 31% 34% -10.2
27.08.23 CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) vs CA Banfield (W) 1-1 49% 56% -12.3 27% 31% -11.2 23% 26% -8.7
27.08.23 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) vs Rosario Central (W) 0-0 28% 31% -11.4 29% 33% -12.2 43% 48% -9.6
28.08.23 CA Independiente (W) vs Social Atletico Television (W) 2-1 52% 60% -13.0 26% 29% -10.3 21% 23% -6.6
02.09.23 Atletico Lanus (W) vs Boca Juniors (W) 0-3 4% 5% -16.8 11% 12% -14.1 85% 91% -6.4
02.09.23 Social Atletico Television (W) vs CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 1-1 27% 30% -11.7 28% 32% -11.7 45% 50% -10.5
02.09.23 UAI Urquiza (W) vs CA Independiente (W) 3-2 70% 78% -9.8 19% 22% -10.8 11% 12% -9.1
03.09.23 CA Estudiantes Caseros (W) vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) 1-0 35% 41% -15.2 29% 33% -11.9 36% 38% -6.3
03.09.23 Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Huracan (W) 0-0 33% 40% -18.3 29% 34% -13.3 38% 39% -3.3
03.09.23 Racing Club (W) vs CA Excursionistas (W) 4-0 62% 71% -12.9 23% 24% -7.0 16% 16% -2.8
04.09.23 San Lorenzo (W) vs Estudiantes La Plata (W) 1-0 67% 77% -13.3 20% 21% -3.7 13% 13% 1.1
08.09.23 UAI Urquiza (W) vs Social Atletico Television (W) 2-1 77% 83% -8.2 15% 17% -11.8 8% 10% -14.6
09.09.23 Atletico Lanus (W) vs CA Estudiantes Caseros (W) 1-2 23% 27% -13.6 26% 29% -9.6 51% 56% -10.1
09.09.23 CA Independiente (W) vs CA Platense (W) 2-0 43% 51% -15.4 29% 33% -11.7 28% 29% -2.4
09.09.23 Huracan (W) vs Racing Club (W) 0-1 23% 27% -13.8 29% 34% -14.3 48% 52% -8.1
10.09.23 River Plate (W) vs CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 2-2 62% 70% -11.7 22% 24% -7.8 16% 17% -8.8
11.09.23 Boca Juniors (W) vs Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1-0 84% 91% -8.0 11% 12% -9.3 5% 6% -10.2
11.09.23 Estudiantes La Plata (W) vs CA Banfield (W) 1-3 34% 38% -11.2 29% 32% -10.9 38% 43% -11.2
12.09.23 Defensores de Belgrano (W) vs San Lorenzo (W) 1-3 10% 12% -16.9 19% 22% -13.9 71% 78% -8.2
15.09.23 Huracan (W) vs San Lorenzo (W) 2-0 27% 32% -17.7 29% 34% -14.3 44% 47% -4.5
15.09.23 Racing Club (W) vs CA Independiente (W) 3-1 45% 52% -12.2 29% 33% -12.8 25% 28% -8.3
15.09.23 River Plate (W) vs Boca Juniors (W) 1-3 24% 27% -8.5 29% 32% -11.6 47% 53% -11.5
16.09.23 CA Banfield (W) vs Atletico Lanus (W) 0-0 74% 85% -13.5 17% 17% 0.3 9% 7% 20.7
16.09.23 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) vs Estudiantes La Plata (W) 2-1 53% 61% -13.9 26% 29% -9.0 21% 22% -4.6
02.10.23 CA Platense (W) vs River Plate (W) 3-2 22% 26% -13.8 24% 26% -7.9 54% 61% -11.4
05.10.23 River Plate (W) vs San Lorenzo (W) 1-0 47% 54% -12.3 27% 30% -10.0 25% 28% -8.8
06.10.23 CA Banfield (W) vs Defensores de Belgrano (W) 3-0 77% 87% -11.6 16% 16% -1.1 7% 6% 13.6
07.10.23 Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Atletico Lanus (W) 3-0 54% 62% -13.0 25% 28% -8.3 20% 21% -4.2
07.10.23 Rosario Central (W) vs Huracan (W) 2-2 47% 52% -9.2 31% 36% -15.2 22% 24% -7.1
08.10.23 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) vs CA Excursionistas (W) 1-0 48% 56% -14.3 28% 31% -10.8 24% 25% -4.2
09.10.23 CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) vs Estudiantes La Plata (W) 5-1 65% 75% -13.8 22% 24% -7.0 13% 12% 4.5
09.10.23 San Lorenzo (W) vs CA Independiente (W) 2-2 49% 58% -14.5 27% 29% -9.1 24% 25% -4.6
10.10.23 Social Atletico Television (W) vs River Plate (W) 2-1 14% 15% -6.6 22% 24% -7.8 64% 72% -11.4
14.10.23 Defensores de Belgrano (W) vs CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 1-4 5% 5% -2.5 13% 14% -7.0 82% 89% -8.6
15.10.23 Atletico Lanus (W) vs Racing Club (W) 0-3 10% 12% -13.9 18% 20% -10.2 72% 79% -9.4
15.10.23 Estudiantes La Plata (W) vs River Plate (W) 0-4 12% 14% -12.6 20% 23% -10.0 67% 74% -9.5
15.10.23 Huracan (W) vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) 0-0 40% 48% -15.7 29% 33% -11.6 30% 31% -2.8
16.10.23 CA Independiente (W) vs CA Banfield (W) 0-1 46% 55% -15.3 27% 29% -8.2 27% 28% -3.9
16.10.23 Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs CA Estudiantes Caseros (W) 3-0 45% 54% -15.9 28% 30% -9.1 27% 28% -2.7
17.10.23 UAI Urquiza (W) vs San Lorenzo (W) 0-1 62% 71% -12.5 23% 26% -9.6 15% 15% -4.1
10.11.23 Racing Club (W) vs Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1-4 62% 68% -10.0 23% 26% -11.4 15% 17% -9.6
10.11.23 San Lorenzo (W) vs CA Platense (W) 2-0 58% 68% -15.4 25% 26% -6.6 18% 17% 5.1
12.11.23 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) vs Boca Juniors (W) 1-4 11% 12% -9.1 20% 22% -9.6 69% 76% -9.7
12.11.23 Rosario Central (W) vs Atletico Lanus (W) 1-0 76% 85% -10.4 16% 17% -4.7 8% 8% -1.8
13.11.23 CA Banfield (W) vs UAI Urquiza (W) 0-4 16% 19% -17.3 22% 26% -12.2 62% 67% -8.0
13.11.23 CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) vs CA Independiente (W) 2-1 64% 75% -14.8 22% 22% -2.7 14% 13% 7.5
13.11.23 River Plate (W) vs Defensores de Belgrano (W) 9-0 93% 99% -6.1 5% 6% -12.7 2% 2% -12.8
14.11.23 Social Atletico Television (W) vs Estudiantes La Plata (W) 4-1 48% 56% -14.0 28% 31% -10.1 24% 25% -4.0
17.11.23 Racing Club (W) vs Boca Juniors (W) 0-2 18% 19% -5.7 25% 28% -9.4 57% 65% -13.0
22.11.23 Boca Juniors (W) vs Rosario Central (W) 2-1 76% 85% -10.7 16% 17% -3.9 8% 8% -0.2
24.11.23 CA Independiente (W) vs River Plate (W) 2-2 22% 26% -17.0 25% 28% -10.5 53% 58% -7.8
25.11.23 Atletico Lanus (W) vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) 1-1 20% 23% -15.2 25% 28% -10.9 56% 61% -8.2
25.11.23 Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Rosario Central (W) 1-0 32% 37% -14.4 29% 32% -11.0 40% 43% -7.0
25.11.23 Huracan (W) vs CA Excursionistas (W) 2-1 47% 56% -15.3 27% 30% -9.4 25% 26% -3.2
25.11.23 Racing Club (W) vs CA Estudiantes Caseros (W) 1-0 54% 61% -11.7 24% 26% -8.0 22% 24% -11.5
26.11.23 CA Platense (W) vs CA Banfield (W) 1-1 40% 48% -16.5 28% 31% -9.9 32% 33% -3.8
26.11.23 San Lorenzo (W) vs Social Atletico Television (W) 2-1 61% 69% -11.7 23% 25% -8.2 16% 17% -5.7
26.11.23 UAI Urquiza (W) vs CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 3-2 57% 65% -13.2 24% 26% -7.6 19% 20% -5.1
29.11.23 CA Estudiantes Caseros (W) vs Huracan (W) 0-3 45% 55% -17.6 29% 32% -10.9 26% 26% 2.3
29.11.23 CA Excursionistas (W) vs Boca Juniors (W) 0-0 4% 4% -5.2 9% 9% 3.6 87% 95% -8.8
29.11.23 River Plate (W) vs UAI Urquiza (W) 1-0 35% 42% -15.9 27% 30% -9.5 38% 41% -8.1
30.11.23 CA Banfield (W) vs San Lorenzo (W) 2-1 32% 38% -15.9 27% 30% -9.6 40% 43% -7.4
30.11.23 CA Platense (W) vs CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 0-3 28% 33% -17.2 28% 32% -12.9 44% 48% -7.0
30.11.23 Estudiantes La Plata (W) vs CA Independiente (W) 0-2 19% 22% -13.2 23% 26% -8.5 58% 65% -10.6
30.11.23 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) vs Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 4-1 39% 43% -10.6 29% 33% -11.9 32% 36% -11.0
30.11.23 Rosario Central (W) vs Racing Club (W) 1-2 34% 38% -11.2 29% 33% -11.9 37% 42% -10.9
30.11.23 Social Atletico Television (W) vs Defensores de Belgrano (W) 2-0 74% 83% -10.8 17% 18% -6.1 9% 10% -3.5
03.12.23 Boca Juniors (W) vs CA Banfield (W) 1-0 77% 85% -10.2 15% 16% -4.7 8% 8% -4.0
03.12.23 Racing Club (W) vs CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 0-0 38% 45% -15.3 30% 34% -12.3 32% 33% -4.7
03.12.23 San Lorenzo (W) vs Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 0-1 57% 65% -11.5 25% 28% -10.9 18% 20% -9.3
03.12.23 UAI Urquiza (W) vs Huracan (W) 1-0 72% 81% -10.5 18% 20% -8.6 10% 10% -4.3
06.12.23 Boca Juniors (W) vs Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 4-1 76% 83% -7.5 15% 17% -12.5 8% 10% -16.6
06.12.23 UAI Urquiza (W) vs CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 1-2 51% 58% -13.0 27% 29% -9.8 23% 24% -7.2
10.12.23 CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) vs Boca Juniors (W) 0-1 19% 21% -11.0 24% 26% -8.6 57% 65% -11.3
13.12.23 Boca Juniors (W) vs CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 2-0 66% 75% -12.7 20% 20% -2.5 15% 16% -7.1
09.03.24 Huracan (W) vs San Luis FC (W) 0-1 51% 61% -16.6 27% 29% -9.0 22% 22% 1.7
10.03.24 CA Excursionistas (W) vs Social Atletico Television (W) 0-3 30% 34% -10.1 29% 32% -11.1 41% 47% -12.2
10.03.24 CA Independiente (W) vs CA Estudiantes Caseros (W) 4-3 48% 56% -14.4 27% 30% -9.9 25% 27% -5.7
10.03.24 CA Platense (W) vs Newell's Old Boys (W) 0-0 40% 45% -12.5 28% 31% -9.7 32% 35% -8.8
10.03.24 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) vs Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1-1 42% 48% -11.7 28% 31% -9.5 30% 33% -9.8
10.03.24 River Plate (W) vs Boca Juniors (W) 0-2 21% 22% -6.6 27% 30% -10.7 52% 60% -12.3
10.03.24 Rosario Central (W) vs CA Banfield (W) 0-1 41% 49% -16.9 29% 32% -11.3 31% 32% -4.3
11.03.24 UAI Urquiza (W) vs Racing Club (W) 0-2 48% 53% -8.6 26% 29% -10.7 26% 30% -15.4
12.03.24 CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) vs San Lorenzo (W) 2-3 44% 51% -15.0 28% 31% -9.7 29% 30% -5.6
15.03.24 CA Estudiantes Caseros (W) vs River Plate (W) 1-3 19% 23% -16.6 24% 27% -10.9 57% 62% -8.2
16.03.24 Boca Juniors (W) vs UAI Urquiza (W) 8-0 64% 72% -11.5 22% 24% -9.6 14% 15% -6.5
16.03.24 Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs CA Independiente (W) 3-1 33% 38% -12.2 29% 32% -11.0 38% 43% -10.3
16.03.24 Newell's Old Boys (W) vs San Luis FC (W) 2-1 35% 38% -7.5 30% 35% -13.3 35% 40% -13.2
17.03.24 CA Banfield (W) vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) 2-5 44% 50% -12.9 29% 32% -11.3 28% 30% -8.2
17.03.24 CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) vs Huracan (W) 2-0 57% 66% -13.4 26% 29% -10.6 17% 17% -1.8
17.03.24 Racing Club (W) vs CA Excursionistas (W) 6-0 76% 85% -10.9 17% 17% -5.1 8% 8% 3.2
17.03.24 Social Atletico Television (W) vs CA Platense (W) 0-0 39% 47% -16.1 30% 35% -13.2 31% 31% -2.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 661 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Racing Club (W) 1899.18
2 Boca Juniors (W) 1877.11
3 San Lorenzo (W) 1866.83
4 CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) 1836.47
5 River Plate (W) 1803.12
6 CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 1795.50
7 Social Atletico Television (W) 1750.46
8 CA Banfield (W) 1710.59
9 Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1697.21
10 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) 1654.66
11 San Luis FC (W) 1645.66
12 Huracan (W) 1601.04
13 Newell's Old Boys (W) 1571.63
14 Atletico Lanus (W) 1564.89
15 CA Union de Santa Fe (W) 1510.87
16 CA Independiente (W) 1507.96

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Racing Club (W) 1866.68
2 Boca Juniors (W) 1826.60
3 San Lorenzo (W) 1812.38
4 CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) 1801.16
5 CA Belgrano de Cordoba (W) 1786.50
6 River Plate (W) 1753.92
7 CA Banfield (W) 1673.48
8 Social Atletico Television (W) 1629.00
9 Club Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1621.75
10 San Luis FC (W) 1621.55
11 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (W) 1582.38
12 Huracan (W) 1524.28
13 CA Independiente (W) 1501.75
14 Atletico Lanus (W) 1490.58
15 Newell's Old Boys (W) 1473.64
16 CA Union de Santa Fe (W) 1461.25