ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1865
Avg Goals 3.05
Avg Home 1.61
Avg Away 1.44
Home Win % 42.1%
Draw % 24.0%
Away Win % 33.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1103
Avg Brier Score 0.5713
Pick Accuracy 54.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5734
Market Brier 0.5713
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 5
Value Bet Hit Rate 40.0%
ROI (flat stake) 255.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 80.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 1103 matches had at least one · staked 5.00, profit 12.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 100.0% 1.00 4.75 475.0%
away 4 25.0% 4.00 8.00 200.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.6% 5.7% 105
10–20% 16.0% 13.6% 523
20–30% 25.3% 26.2% 1316
30–40% 34.9% 34.9% 410
40–50% 44.6% 43.1% 353
50–60% 54.8% 54.8% 279
60–70% 64.3% 65.4% 185
70–80% 74.4% 75.9% 108
80–90% 84.2% 100.0% 30
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
11.08.23 Burnley FC vs Manchester City 0-3 10% 11% -7.4 18% 20% -7.7 71% 75% -4.5
12.08.23 AFC Bournemouth vs West Ham United 1-1 35% 38% -9.5 27% 29% -5.8 38% 39% -2.4
12.08.23 Arsenal FC vs Nottingham Forest 2-1 79% 85% -7.3 14% 14% 0.4 7% 7% 2.5
12.08.23 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Luton Town 4-1 70% 76% -7.3 19% 19% -2.2 11% 11% 0.2
12.08.23 Everton FC vs Fulham FC 0-1 43% 44% -4.3 28% 31% -7.5 29% 30% -4.3
12.08.23 Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 5-1 56% 61% -8.2 24% 25% -3.2 20% 20% 0.9
12.08.23 Sheffield United vs Crystal Palace 0-1 26% 28% -6.8 28% 31% -8.9 46% 47% -1.9
13.08.23 Brentford FC vs Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 36% 38% -6.2 28% 29% -6.0 36% 38% -3.9
13.08.23 Chelsea FC vs Liverpool FC 1-1 32% 36% -9.8 26% 27% -4.5 42% 43% -3.5
14.08.23 Manchester United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0 74% 78% -5.8 17% 17% -0.4 10% 10% -2.2
18.08.23 Nottingham Forest vs Sheffield United 2-1 48% 52% -7.3 27% 29% -6.7 24% 24% 0.4
19.08.23 Fulham FC vs Brentford FC 0-3 33% 35% -4.6 30% 32% -8.4 37% 38% -3.2
19.08.23 Liverpool FC vs AFC Bournemouth 3-1 78% 83% -6.3 14% 13% 3.5 8% 8% -3.0
19.08.23 Manchester City vs Newcastle United 1-0 51% 53% -3.7 25% 27% -6.0 23% 25% -7.6
19.08.23 Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United 2-0 31% 34% -7.3 26% 27% -3.8 43% 45% -5.6
19.08.23 Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Brighton & Hove Albion 1-4 22% 25% -11.2 24% 26% -6.4 54% 56% -3.2
20.08.23 Aston Villa vs Everton FC 4-0 50% 53% -6.0 26% 27% -5.0 24% 25% -3.9
20.08.23 West Ham United vs Chelsea FC 3-1 28% 31% -7.4 27% 29% -6.2 45% 47% -3.8
21.08.23 Crystal Palace vs Arsenal FC 0-1 20% 22% -7.9 26% 28% -8.1 54% 56% -2.8
25.08.23 Chelsea FC vs Luton Town 3-0 74% 79% -6.2 16% 16% 1.6 9% 9% 1.9
26.08.23 AFC Bournemouth vs Tottenham Hotspur 0-2 28% 30% -8.9 25% 27% -4.8 47% 49% -3.6
26.08.23 Arsenal FC vs Fulham FC 2-2 74% 78% -5.4 17% 17% -2.9 9% 10% -3.0
26.08.23 Brentford FC vs Crystal Palace 1-1 44% 47% -5.9 28% 31% -7.7 28% 29% -2.6
26.08.23 Brighton & Hove Albion vs West Ham United 1-3 60% 66% -8.2 22% 22% -0.4 18% 18% -1.2
26.08.23 Everton FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-1 41% 41% 0.8 28% 30% -8.1 31% 35% -11.7
26.08.23 Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest 3-2 68% 72% -5.8 19% 19% -0.9 13% 13% -3.6
27.08.23 Burnley FC vs Aston Villa 1-3 29% 32% -10.3 27% 29% -6.9 44% 45% -2.2
27.08.23 Newcastle United vs Liverpool FC 1-2 42% 45% -8.0 26% 27% -3.4 32% 34% -4.3
27.08.23 Sheffield United vs Manchester City 1-2 7% 8% -6.1 14% 15% -4.2 79% 83% -4.9
02.09.23 Brentford FC vs AFC Bournemouth 2-2 55% 60% -8.2 25% 26% -4.2 20% 20% 0.7
02.09.23 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Newcastle United 3-1 36% 40% -10.7 26% 27% -4.2 38% 39% -2.2
02.09.23 Burnley FC vs Tottenham Hotspur 2-5 26% 28% -6.0 26% 27% -5.1 48% 51% -5.9
02.09.23 Chelsea FC vs Nottingham Forest 0-1 65% 70% -7.2 21% 22% -3.7 14% 14% -0.6
02.09.23 Manchester City vs Fulham FC 5-1 81% 85% -4.2 13% 13% -5.3 6% 7% -10.5
02.09.23 Sheffield United vs Everton FC 2-2 31% 33% -6.2 28% 31% -7.9 40% 42% -4.3
03.09.23 Arsenal FC vs Manchester United 3-1 52% 56% -8.3 24% 25% -3.1 24% 25% -4.2
03.09.23 Crystal Palace vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-2 50% 53% -5.3 27% 29% -7.6 23% 24% -3.4
03.09.23 Liverpool FC vs Aston Villa 3-0 59% 63% -7.5 22% 22% -0.7 19% 20% -3.1
16.09.23 Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace 3-1 49% 53% -7.0 26% 28% -5.6 25% 26% -3.2
16.09.23 Fulham FC vs Luton Town 1-0 56% 60% -5.3 25% 27% -6.9 18% 19% -2.9
16.09.23 Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion 1-3 48% 52% -7.3 25% 25% -1.7 27% 29% -4.1
16.09.23 Newcastle United vs Brentford FC 1-0 58% 62% -6.3 24% 25% -5.6 18% 19% -4.5
16.09.23 Tottenham Hotspur vs Sheffield United 2-1 73% 78% -6.7 17% 17% 0.6 10% 11% -1.8
16.09.23 West Ham United vs Manchester City 1-3 17% 18% -7.3 23% 24% -6.3 60% 62% -3.5
16.09.23 Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Liverpool FC 1-3 20% 22% -9.9 23% 24% -5.0 58% 60% -4.0
17.09.23 AFC Bournemouth vs Chelsea FC 0-0 23% 26% -10.2 25% 26% -6.3 52% 54% -3.2
17.09.23 Everton FC vs Arsenal FC 0-1 17% 18% -8.1 22% 24% -6.2 61% 64% -4.3
18.09.23 Nottingham Forest vs Burnley FC 1-1 44% 48% -7.0 28% 29% -5.7 28% 28% 0.6
23.09.23 Brentford FC vs Everton FC 1-3 49% 51% -5.2 27% 29% -6.3 25% 26% -4.0
23.09.23 Burnley FC vs Manchester United 0-1 23% 25% -9.6 25% 26% -6.3 53% 55% -3.5
23.09.23 Crystal Palace vs Fulham FC 0-0 47% 49% -4.4 28% 30% -7.6 25% 26% -3.6
23.09.23 Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest 2-0 81% 85% -4.5 13% 13% -2.0 6% 6% -3.4
24.09.23 Arsenal FC vs Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 57% 62% -6.8 23% 23% -2.1 20% 21% -4.6
24.09.23 Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth 3-1 62% 66% -6.5 21% 21% -0.9 17% 18% -5.3
24.09.23 Chelsea FC vs Aston Villa 0-1 50% 54% -7.8 25% 26% -3.5 25% 25% -1.0
24.09.23 Liverpool FC vs West Ham United 3-1 68% 74% -8.0 18% 17% 4.9 14% 13% 2.0
24.09.23 Sheffield United vs Newcastle United 0-8 15% 17% -11.1 22% 24% -8.6 63% 65% -1.7
30.09.23 AFC Bournemouth vs Arsenal FC 0-4 16% 17% -6.8 22% 23% -5.8 63% 66% -4.7
30.09.23 Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion 6-1 37% 41% -8.4 26% 28% -4.7 36% 38% -4.2
30.09.23 Everton FC vs Luton Town 1-2 59% 62% -5.0 24% 26% -6.5 17% 18% -4.5
30.09.23 Manchester United vs Crystal Palace 0-1 61% 65% -6.7 23% 24% -4.6 16% 17% -2.1
30.09.23 Newcastle United vs Burnley FC 2-0 67% 72% -6.5 20% 21% -3.6 13% 13% -1.7
30.09.23 Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool FC 2-1 32% 34% -6.4 25% 26% -2.1 43% 45% -6.2
30.09.23 Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Manchester City 2-1 11% 12% -12.3 18% 20% -8.8 71% 73% -3.0
01.10.23 Nottingham Forest vs Brentford FC 1-1 36% 39% -9.1 29% 31% -8.1 36% 36% -0.3
02.10.23 Fulham FC vs Chelsea FC 0-2 28% 30% -8.9 27% 29% -7.7 45% 47% -2.7
07.10.23 Burnley FC vs Chelsea FC 1-4 20% 21% -5.7 25% 26% -6.7 56% 59% -5.1
07.10.23 Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest 0-0 43% 44% -4.0 29% 32% -8.6 28% 29% -2.5
07.10.23 Everton FC vs AFC Bournemouth 3-0 51% 53% -5.5 26% 27% -5.1 24% 25% -4.6
07.10.23 Fulham FC vs Sheffield United 3-1 62% 66% -6.2 23% 23% -1.7 16% 15% 5.4
07.10.23 Luton Town vs Tottenham Hotspur 0-1 14% 15% -7.6 19% 20% -3.0 66% 70% -5.0
07.10.23 Manchester United vs Brentford FC 2-1 54% 59% -8.0 24% 25% -2.9 22% 22% -0.7
08.10.23 Arsenal FC vs Manchester City 1-0 32% 35% -8.9 29% 31% -8.5 39% 40% -1.4
08.10.23 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Liverpool FC 2-2 29% 31% -6.7 24% 24% -1.1 47% 50% -6.5
08.10.23 West Ham United vs Newcastle United 2-2 30% 32% -7.6 27% 29% -6.2 43% 45% -4.5
08.10.23 Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Aston Villa 1-1 27% 29% -7.5 26% 28% -5.8 47% 49% -4.4
21.10.23 AFC Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-2 40% 43% -5.8 28% 29% -6.2 32% 34% -4.6
21.10.23 Brentford FC vs Burnley FC 3-0 53% 56% -5.7 26% 28% -7.1 21% 22% -4.5
21.10.23 Chelsea FC vs Arsenal FC 2-2 29% 31% -5.9 29% 31% -8.3 42% 43% -3.6
21.10.23 Liverpool FC vs Everton FC 2-0 67% 71% -5.6 19% 19% -1.2 14% 15% -7.0
21.10.23 Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 70% 74% -5.9 18% 18% -0.7 12% 13% -5.0
21.10.23 Newcastle United vs Crystal Palace 4-0 65% 69% -6.5 22% 23% -4.7 13% 13% 0.8
21.10.23 Nottingham Forest vs Luton Town 2-2 56% 59% -5.3 25% 28% -8.5 19% 20% -5.6
21.10.23 Sheffield United vs Manchester United 1-2 11% 12% -6.9 18% 18% -3.2 71% 75% -4.7
22.10.23 Aston Villa vs West Ham United 4-1 51% 56% -8.3 25% 26% -4.3 24% 24% -2.1
23.10.23 Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham FC 2-0 63% 68% -7.7 21% 21% -0.7 16% 17% -2.0
27.10.23 Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur 1-2 21% 22% -4.1 25% 27% -5.6 54% 56% -5.3
28.10.23 AFC Bournemouth vs Burnley FC 2-1 43% 47% -6.6 27% 29% -5.5 30% 31% -3.8
28.10.23 Arsenal FC vs Sheffield United 5-0 84% 88% -4.7 11% 11% 1.0 5% 5% -5.2
28.10.23 Chelsea FC vs Brentford FC 0-2 57% 61% -6.5 24% 26% -4.7 19% 19% -0.8
28.10.23 Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Newcastle United 2-2 21% 24% -10.4 24% 26% -7.0 54% 56% -2.5
29.10.23 Aston Villa vs Luton Town 3-1 70% 75% -6.4 18% 18% -1.2 12% 12% -4.0
29.10.23 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Fulham FC 1-1 58% 62% -7.5 23% 24% -3.5 19% 20% -4.0
29.10.23 Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest 3-0 77% 81% -5.5 15% 15% -0.0 8% 9% -4.1
29.10.23 Manchester United vs Manchester City 0-3 18% 19% -3.0 23% 24% -4.3 58% 62% -6.3
29.10.23 West Ham United vs Everton FC 0-1 46% 50% -7.2 26% 28% -4.8 27% 28% -2.3
04.11.23 Brentford FC vs West Ham United 3-2 43% 48% -9.1 27% 28% -4.4 30% 30% -0.4
04.11.23 Burnley FC vs Crystal Palace 0-2 30% 31% -3.7 29% 32% -8.7 41% 43% -3.9
04.11.23 Everton FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1 34% 37% -8.2 27% 28% -4.6 39% 41% -3.3
04.11.23 Fulham FC vs Manchester United 0-1 30% 33% -9.5 27% 29% -6.0 43% 43% -1.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 1103 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

20 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Manchester City 2563.93
2 Arsenal FC 2525.07
3 Manchester United 2438.26
4 Liverpool FC 2435.86
5 Chelsea FC 2429.30
6 Brentford FC 2404.56
7 Tottenham Hotspur 2361.88
8 Brighton & Hove Albion 2348.95
9 AFC Bournemouth 2346.89
10 Newcastle United 2322.37
11 Leeds United 2319.86
12 Everton FC 2308.53
13 Crystal Palace 2299.11
14 Nottingham Forest 2295.47
15 Sunderland FC 2286.57
16 Fulham FC 2279.41
17 Aston Villa 2267.07
18 Ipswich Town 2239.96
19 Coventry City 2181.31
20 Hull City 2086.15

Away Ratings

20 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Manchester City 2508.45
2 Arsenal FC 2493.27
3 Liverpool FC 2414.54
4 Manchester United 2376.63
5 Chelsea FC 2347.59
6 Brighton & Hove Albion 2311.32
7 Brentford FC 2306.44
8 Newcastle United 2304.93
9 Tottenham Hotspur 2301.54
10 Everton FC 2288.66
11 Leeds United 2286.60
12 AFC Bournemouth 2285.63
13 Aston Villa 2259.77
14 Fulham FC 2250.56
15 Crystal Palace 2226.93
16 Sunderland FC 2211.22
17 Nottingham Forest 2199.29
18 Coventry City 2150.20
19 Ipswich Town 2128.22
20 Hull City 2081.54