ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1139
Avg Goals 2.53
Avg Home 1.35
Avg Away 1.18
Home Win % 40.1%
Draw % 28.2%
Away Win % 31.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1139
Avg Brier Score 0.5743
Pick Accuracy 54.3%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5735
Market Brier 0.5758
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 1139 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.0% 6.2% 80
10–20% 15.5% 14.4% 515
20–30% 25.8% 23.0% 1104
30–40% 33.2% 33.7% 819
40–50% 44.5% 48.8% 346
50–60% 54.8% 58.6% 256
60–70% 64.7% 69.0% 210
70–80% 73.8% 76.9% 78
80–90% 82.3% 66.7% 9
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
19.08.23 Empoli FC vs Hellas Verona 0-1 41% 44% -8.0 30% 30% -1.1 29% 31% -6.7
19.08.23 Frosinone Calcio vs SSC Napoli 1-3 12% 16% -22.4 20% 23% -10.0 67% 67% 0.7
19.08.23 Genoa FC vs AC Fiorentina 1-4 25% 29% -15.0 29% 31% -5.0 46% 47% -1.6
19.08.23 Inter Milan vs SSD Monza 1912 2-0 67% 72% -7.2 21% 20% 5.0 12% 13% -8.4
20.08.23 AS Roma vs Salernitana Calcio 1919 2-2 61% 65% -5.2 25% 26% -1.8 14% 15% -7.7
20.08.23 Udinese Calcio vs Juventus Torino 0-3 24% 26% -9.7 30% 31% -3.5 47% 49% -4.5
20.08.23 US Lecce vs Lazio Roma 2-1 24% 27% -10.5 30% 31% -4.1 46% 48% -3.7
20.08.23 US Sassuolo Calcio vs Atalanta Bergamo 0-2 26% 30% -14.3 27% 28% -1.2 47% 49% -4.5
21.08.23 Bologna FC vs AC Milan 0-2 23% 26% -8.7 28% 29% -1.2 48% 52% -6.7
21.08.23 Torino FC vs Cagliari Calcio 0-0 57% 61% -5.3 27% 27% -1.6 16% 17% -7.8
26.08.23 AC Milan vs Torino FC 4-1 55% 58% -4.2 27% 29% -4.7 17% 20% -13.0
26.08.23 Frosinone Calcio vs Atalanta Bergamo 2-1 17% 21% -18.6 24% 25% -5.1 59% 60% -1.5
26.08.23 Hellas Verona vs AS Roma 2-1 19% 21% -7.8 28% 29% -3.5 52% 56% -6.0
26.08.23 SSD Monza 1912 vs Empoli FC 2-0 46% 51% -9.8 29% 29% 0.4 25% 26% -4.8
27.08.23 AC Fiorentina vs US Lecce 2-2 56% 58% -4.2 27% 28% -3.5 17% 20% -12.6
27.08.23 Juventus Torino vs Bologna FC 1-1 56% 60% -5.5 27% 27% -1.8 17% 19% -9.8
27.08.23 Lazio Roma vs Genoa FC 0-1 55% 57% -3.8 26% 27% -2.5 19% 22% -14.0
27.08.23 SSC Napoli vs US Sassuolo Calcio 2-0 70% 76% -7.4 19% 18% 5.7 11% 12% -9.6
28.08.23 Cagliari Calcio vs Inter Milan 0-2 12% 15% -18.7 20% 21% -5.1 68% 69% -2.1
28.08.23 Salernitana Calcio 1919 vs Udinese Calcio 1-1 33% 36% -8.4 31% 31% -2.1 37% 39% -6.4
01.09.23 AS Roma vs AC Milan 1-2 32% 34% -5.9 32% 33% -4.2 36% 39% -7.8
01.09.23 US Sassuolo Calcio vs Hellas Verona 3-1 49% 52% -5.8 28% 29% -1.2 23% 26% -10.5
02.09.23 Atalanta Bergamo vs SSD Monza 1912 3-0 56% 60% -7.4 25% 25% 1.7 19% 21% -9.8
02.09.23 Bologna FC vs Cagliari Calcio 2-1 54% 56% -4.0 27% 27% -1.4 19% 22% -12.7
02.09.23 SSC Napoli vs Lazio Roma 1-2 58% 63% -9.0 25% 24% 3.7 18% 19% -7.0
02.09.23 Udinese Calcio vs Frosinone Calcio 0-0 51% 54% -6.5 28% 29% -1.8 21% 24% -10.2
03.09.23 Empoli FC vs Juventus Torino 0-2 16% 18% -10.8 25% 26% -2.2 59% 62% -4.9
03.09.23 Inter Milan vs AC Fiorentina 4-0 51% 58% -11.9 27% 26% 4.3 22% 22% 0.1
03.09.23 Torino FC vs Genoa FC 1-0 46% 49% -5.4 30% 31% -3.7 24% 26% -9.8
03.09.23 US Lecce vs Salernitana Calcio 1919 2-0 49% 51% -5.4 30% 31% -3.4 22% 24% -8.6
16.09.23 Genoa FC vs SSC Napoli 2-2 16% 19% -16.2 24% 26% -5.2 60% 61% -2.7
16.09.23 Inter Milan vs AC Milan 5-1 44% 47% -6.4 29% 29% -0.1 27% 29% -7.9
16.09.23 Juventus Torino vs Lazio Roma 3-1 49% 52% -5.9 29% 29% -1.7 22% 24% -8.5
17.09.23 AC Fiorentina vs Atalanta Bergamo 3-2 36% 38% -6.9 30% 30% -0.7 34% 37% -7.9
17.09.23 AS Roma vs Empoli FC 7-0 67% 71% -5.9 22% 22% 0.7 11% 12% -9.0
17.09.23 Cagliari Calcio vs Udinese Calcio 0-0 32% 36% -9.7 31% 31% -2.3 37% 39% -5.1
17.09.23 Frosinone Calcio vs US Sassuolo Calcio 4-2 30% 35% -12.9 29% 29% -0.1 41% 43% -3.4
17.09.23 SSD Monza 1912 vs US Lecce 1-1 41% 44% -6.9 30% 31% -1.7 28% 31% -7.7
18.09.23 Hellas Verona vs Bologna FC 0-0 30% 31% -4.9 29% 29% -0.1 41% 45% -10.0
18.09.23 Salernitana Calcio 1919 vs Torino FC 0-3 25% 27% -7.6 31% 32% -4.1 44% 47% -5.2
22.09.23 Salernitana Calcio 1919 vs Frosinone Calcio 1-1 38% 41% -6.7 31% 31% -1.9 31% 34% -7.8
22.09.23 US Lecce vs Genoa FC 1-0 38% 39% -2.7 31% 32% -3.6 31% 35% -11.8
23.09.23 AC Milan vs Hellas Verona 1-0 69% 72% -3.6 20% 21% -3.2 10% 12% -15.4
23.09.23 Lazio Roma vs SSD Monza 1912 1-1 51% 56% -7.4 27% 27% 1.0 22% 24% -9.2
23.09.23 US Sassuolo Calcio vs Juventus Torino 4-2 21% 24% -11.8 26% 26% 0.5 53% 56% -5.3
24.09.23 Atalanta Bergamo vs Cagliari Calcio 2-0 68% 71% -3.4 20% 21% -3.0 11% 13% -16.9
24.09.23 Bologna FC vs SSC Napoli 0-0 24% 28% -14.6 28% 29% -2.7 48% 49% -0.6
24.09.23 Empoli FC vs Inter Milan 0-1 9% 10% -12.9 17% 17% 1.3 74% 78% -4.8
24.09.23 Torino FC vs AS Roma 1-1 28% 31% -8.6 32% 33% -4.5 40% 42% -3.9
24.09.23 Udinese Calcio vs AC Fiorentina 0-2 27% 31% -13.3 29% 30% -3.0 44% 44% -2.1
26.09.23 Juventus Torino vs US Lecce 1-0 64% 67% -4.2 23% 24% -3.4 13% 15% -14.3
27.09.23 Cagliari Calcio vs AC Milan 1-3 19% 23% -16.9 27% 29% -7.2 54% 53% 0.1
27.09.23 Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Bergamo 0-1 22% 24% -11.2 28% 29% -2.6 50% 53% -5.1
27.09.23 Inter Milan vs US Sassuolo Calcio 1-2 75% 80% -6.2 16% 15% 8.5 9% 10% -13.1
27.09.23 Lazio Roma vs Torino FC 2-0 44% 45% -4.0 30% 31% -2.5 26% 29% -9.3
27.09.23 SSC Napoli vs Udinese Calcio 4-1 68% 72% -6.7 21% 20% 2.9 12% 13% -11.4
28.09.23 Frosinone Calcio vs AC Fiorentina 1-1 23% 27% -15.7 28% 29% -3.7 50% 50% -0.6
28.09.23 Genoa FC vs AS Roma 4-1 23% 25% -9.7 31% 32% -5.4 47% 49% -3.8
28.09.23 SSD Monza 1912 vs Bologna FC 0-0 41% 44% -7.9 30% 29% 0.6 29% 31% -5.6
30.09.23 AC Milan vs Lazio Roma 2-0 53% 58% -8.5 27% 27% 0.5 20% 21% -5.8
30.09.23 Salernitana Calcio 1919 vs Inter Milan 0-4 11% 13% -16.8 20% 21% -5.3 69% 71% -2.9
30.09.23 US Lecce vs SSC Napoli 0-4 19% 22% -13.5 27% 28% -4.1 55% 56% -3.4
01.10.23 AS Roma vs Frosinone Calcio 2-0 69% 73% -6.1 21% 20% 2.6 11% 12% -9.8
01.10.23 Atalanta Bergamo vs Juventus Torino 0-0 38% 42% -9.6 31% 31% -2.0 32% 33% -4.9
01.10.23 Bologna FC vs Empoli FC 3-0 56% 59% -5.5 26% 26% -1.1 18% 21% -11.9
01.10.23 Udinese Calcio vs Genoa FC 2-2 43% 45% -6.0 30% 31% -2.7 27% 29% -8.7
02.10.23 AC Fiorentina vs Cagliari Calcio 3-0 61% 65% -7.2 25% 24% 0.7 15% 16% -7.4
02.10.23 Torino FC vs Hellas Verona 0-0 53% 56% -6.1 28% 29% -3.2 18% 20% -7.7
02.10.23 US Sassuolo Calcio vs SSD Monza 1912 0-1 43% 49% -12.2 28% 27% 3.5 30% 31% -3.9
06.10.23 Empoli FC vs Udinese Calcio 0-0 31% 34% -9.3 30% 31% -1.8 39% 41% -5.6
06.10.23 US Lecce vs US Sassuolo Calcio 1-1 35% 38% -8.1 29% 29% -0.0 35% 38% -8.3
07.10.23 Genoa FC vs AC Milan 0-1 21% 24% -13.9 29% 31% -6.2 51% 51% -1.3
07.10.23 Inter Milan vs Bologna FC 2-2 70% 75% -6.3 20% 19% 2.9 10% 11% -9.9
07.10.23 Juventus Torino vs Torino FC 2-0 49% 51% -3.7 30% 32% -5.5 20% 22% -9.4
08.10.23 Cagliari Calcio vs AS Roma 1-4 17% 19% -12.3 26% 28% -4.9 57% 59% -3.3
08.10.23 Frosinone Calcio vs Hellas Verona 2-1 38% 43% -9.8 31% 32% -2.9 30% 31% -3.0
08.10.23 Lazio Roma vs Atalanta Bergamo 3-2 32% 35% -6.9 31% 31% -2.0 37% 40% -7.7
08.10.23 SSC Napoli vs AC Fiorentina 1-3 57% 62% -9.2 25% 24% 5.1 18% 19% -4.2
08.10.23 SSD Monza 1912 vs Salernitana Calcio 1919 3-0 56% 60% -6.7 26% 26% 1.6 18% 20% -7.8
21.10.23 Hellas Verona vs SSC Napoli 1-3 16% 19% -15.7 24% 24% -3.3 60% 62% -3.4
21.10.23 Torino FC vs Inter Milan 0-3 18% 20% -10.9 26% 27% -2.8 56% 59% -4.9
21.10.23 US Sassuolo Calcio vs Lazio Roma 0-2 33% 37% -11.2 29% 29% 0.5 38% 41% -5.9
22.10.23 AC Milan vs Juventus Torino 0-1 42% 45% -6.9 31% 31% -1.8 27% 29% -5.6
22.10.23 AS Roma vs SSD Monza 1912 1-0 54% 57% -5.5 27% 27% -0.4 19% 21% -9.5
22.10.23 Atalanta Bergamo vs Genoa FC 2-0 62% 66% -6.1 24% 24% -0.5 14% 15% -9.1
22.10.23 Bologna FC vs Frosinone Calcio 2-1 53% 56% -6.8 27% 27% 0.2 20% 22% -8.8
22.10.23 Salernitana Calcio 1919 vs Cagliari Calcio 2-2 40% 43% -7.0 31% 31% -1.4 30% 31% -5.3
23.10.23 AC Fiorentina vs Empoli FC 0-2 66% 70% -6.6 22% 21% 3.0 13% 14% -9.2
23.10.23 Udinese Calcio vs US Lecce 1-1 44% 48% -6.6 30% 31% -2.7 25% 27% -7.1
27.10.23 Genoa FC vs Salernitana Calcio 1919 1-0 53% 58% -8.2 28% 28% -0.5 19% 20% -5.0
28.10.23 Juventus Torino vs Hellas Verona 1-0 69% 73% -4.9 21% 21% -1.3 10% 11% -12.2
28.10.23 US Lecce vs Torino FC 0-1 34% 37% -8.2 33% 34% -5.3 33% 35% -5.0
28.10.23 US Sassuolo Calcio vs Bologna FC 1-1 35% 38% -8.3 29% 29% 0.9 37% 40% -8.7
29.10.23 Cagliari Calcio vs Frosinone Calcio 4-3 42% 47% -9.1 29% 29% -0.2 28% 30% -6.5
29.10.23 Inter Milan vs AS Roma 1-0 57% 64% -10.0 26% 25% 2.7 17% 17% -2.1
29.10.23 SSC Napoli vs AC Milan 2-2 41% 44% -7.0 30% 30% -1.2 29% 31% -8.1
29.10.23 SSD Monza 1912 vs Udinese Calcio 1-1 45% 49% -7.8 29% 29% -0.0 26% 27% -5.2
30.10.23 Empoli FC vs Atalanta Bergamo 0-3 17% 20% -13.8 25% 25% -1.9 58% 60% -3.3
30.10.23 Lazio Roma vs AC Fiorentina 1-0 40% 43% -8.5 30% 30% -1.0 30% 32% -6.4
03.11.23 Bologna FC vs Lazio Roma 1-0 35% 38% -6.1 32% 33% -3.8 32% 35% -6.8
Showing the 100 most recent of 1139 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

20 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Como Calcio 2424.59
2 Inter Milan 2410.49
3 Juventus Torino 2387.61
4 AC Milan 2371.34
5 AS Roma 2347.11
6 SSC Napoli 2334.44
7 Atalanta Bergamo 2283.42
8 Bologna FC 2200.77
9 Lazio Roma 2190.58
10 Udinese Calcio 2170.52
11 SSC Venezia 2158.63
12 AC Fiorentina 2148.28
13 Torino FC 2135.19
14 US Sassuolo Calcio 2118.04
15 Genoa FC 2094.73
16 Frosinone Calcio 2094.25
17 US Lecce 2074.93
18 Cagliari Calcio 2063.61
19 Parma Calcio 2025.73
20 SSD Monza 1912 2015.81

Away Ratings

20 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 AS Roma 2359.59
2 Inter Milan 2343.80
3 Juventus Torino 2331.45
4 Como Calcio 2281.87
5 AC Milan 2254.46
6 SSC Napoli 2216.06
7 Atalanta Bergamo 2192.90
8 Bologna FC 2160.98
9 AC Fiorentina 2155.83
10 Lazio Roma 2125.76
11 US Sassuolo Calcio 2091.62
12 Torino FC 2078.57
13 Cagliari Calcio 2058.79
14 Udinese Calcio 2054.72
15 SSD Monza 1912 2050.96
16 Genoa FC 2047.67
17 SSC Venezia 2038.74
18 Parma Calcio 2030.28
19 Frosinone Calcio 2011.03
20 US Lecce 1978.05