ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 402
Avg Goals 2.92
Avg Home 1.58
Avg Away 1.34
Home Win % 46.3%
Draw % 21.1%
Away Win % 32.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 402
Avg Brier Score 0.6022
Pick Accuracy 51.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6077
Market Brier 0.6016
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 402 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.2% 0.0% 4
10–20% 16.9% 16.2% 136
20–30% 24.2% 25.3% 526
30–40% 34.8% 30.5% 177
40–50% 44.9% 46.9% 175
50–60% 54.4% 48.6% 109
60–70% 63.7% 75.0% 64
70–80% 73.9% 66.7% 15
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
14.10.23 Central Coast Mariners (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W) 0-1 41% 35% 17.9 22% 28% -19.2 36% 49% -25.8
14.10.23 Perth Glory (W) vs Western United (W) 2-0 33% 35% -6.7 24% 29% -14.8 43% 49% -12.0
14.10.23 Sydney FC (W) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 2-0 76% 83% -8.8 14% 17% -14.5 10% 10% -4.7
15.10.23 Adelaide United (W) vs Canberra United (W) 4-4 36% 40% -8.8 24% 28% -14.7 40% 45% -12.3
15.10.23 Melbourne Victory (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 1-2 64% 72% -10.8 19% 22% -14.2 17% 17% -3.5
15.10.23 Wellington Phoenix (W) vs Melbourne City (W) 0-1 18% 19% -3.0 20% 23% -10.2 61% 70% -12.6
20.10.23 Adelaide United (W) vs Central Coast Mariners (W) 1-2 57% 60% -5.0 21% 26% -18.6 22% 26% -16.4
21.10.23 Brisbane Roar (W) vs Sydney FC (W) 1-0 19% 21% -9.4 22% 25% -13.6 60% 66% -10.1
21.10.23 Melbourne City (W) vs Canberra United (W) 2-1 63% 70% -11.2 19% 22% -13.5 18% 19% -4.4
22.10.23 Perth Glory (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W) 1-0 50% 55% -8.0 24% 29% -17.4 26% 29% -11.2
22.10.23 Western Sydney Wanderers (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W) 0-3 46% 50% -8.5 26% 32% -18.7 28% 30% -7.5
22.10.23 Western United (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W) 2-1 38% 43% -9.6 25% 30% -16.6 36% 40% -9.4
04.11.23 Canberra United (W) vs Perth Glory (W) 2-3 42% 45% -7.6 24% 29% -16.9 34% 38% -12.7
04.11.23 Melbourne Victory (W) vs Adelaide United (W) 2-0 56% 64% -11.6 21% 25% -14.8 22% 24% -6.1
04.11.23 Wellington Phoenix (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 2-1 33% 36% -7.5 26% 31% -16.1 41% 45% -9.4
05.11.23 Newcastle Jets (W) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 1-1 45% 51% -12.9 25% 29% -16.2 31% 32% -4.8
05.11.23 Western United (W) vs Melbourne City (W) 2-2 29% 30% -4.9 25% 29% -15.7 46% 53% -12.8
11.11.23 Perth Glory (W) vs Adelaide United (W) 2-1 60% 68% -12.7 21% 24% -13.4 19% 18% 4.8
12.11.23 Central Coast Mariners (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 1-1 35% 38% -9.3 26% 31% -16.6 39% 43% -9.2
12.11.23 Melbourne City (W) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 4-3 77% 85% -9.7 14% 16% -11.9 9% 9% 3.2
12.11.23 Melbourne Victory (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W) 4-0 67% 75% -10.5 18% 21% -13.3 14% 14% 1.2
12.11.23 Wellington Phoenix (W) vs Western United (W) 3-1 31% 34% -9.3 25% 29% -15.3 44% 49% -9.1
18.11.23 Central Coast Mariners (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W) 1-0 36% 39% -8.3 25% 29% -15.9 39% 44% -11.5
18.11.23 Perth Glory (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W) 2-2 26% 27% -3.1 25% 29% -15.3 49% 56% -12.0
19.11.23 Adelaide United (W) vs Sydney FC (W) 1-3 15% 16% -7.1 19% 22% -11.2 66% 74% -10.5
19.11.23 Brisbane Roar (W) vs Western United (W) 0-1 35% 40% -13.1 25% 29% -15.7 40% 43% -7.0
19.11.23 Newcastle Jets (W) vs Melbourne City (W) 2-3 15% 16% -3.2 19% 21% -9.0 66% 75% -12.1
25.11.23 Wellington Phoenix (W) vs Perth Glory (W) 2-1 38% 43% -11.4 26% 31% -16.5 37% 39% -6.7
25.11.23 Western United (W) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 0-2 53% 58% -9.1 23% 28% -16.5 24% 26% -7.8
26.11.23 Brisbane Roar (W) vs Adelaide United (W) 1-1 51% 60% -14.3 23% 27% -13.9 26% 25% 2.8
26.11.23 Canberra United (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W) 3-4 46% 51% -8.1 24% 29% -16.8 30% 34% -12.1
26.11.23 Melbourne Victory (W) vs Central Coast Mariners (W) 2-1 68% 74% -7.1 18% 22% -18.4 14% 16% -12.9
26.11.23 Sydney FC (W) vs Melbourne City (W) 2-3 54% 62% -11.8 22% 26% -14.7 24% 25% -5.3
08.12.23 Western Sydney Wanderers (W) vs Central Coast Mariners (W) 3-0 44% 47% -6.3 25% 30% -17.5 31% 36% -12.1
09.12.23 Adelaide United (W) vs Western United (W) 1-3 31% 34% -8.8 25% 29% -15.6 44% 49% -10.3
09.12.23 Melbourne City (W) vs Perth Glory (W) 1-3 63% 69% -9.7 19% 22% -14.4 18% 20% -8.6
10.12.23 Canberra United (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 5-1 36% 38% -5.6 25% 29% -15.7 39% 44% -12.5
10.12.23 Newcastle Jets (W) vs Sydney FC (W) 0-1 17% 18% -7.9 20% 23% -11.9 63% 70% -10.0
10.12.23 Wellington Phoenix (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W) 2-2 24% 27% -9.2 24% 28% -14.9 52% 58% -10.3
15.12.23 Central Coast Mariners (W) vs Melbourne City (W) 1-1 21% 23% -7.6 20% 23% -10.0 59% 66% -11.6
16.12.23 Adelaide United (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W) 2-1 31% 34% -7.8 24% 29% -15.1 44% 51% -11.9
16.12.23 Melbourne Victory (W) vs Canberra United (W) 2-0 66% 72% -8.2 18% 21% -15.3 16% 17% -10.0
17.12.23 Brisbane Roar (W) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 1-1 41% 44% -7.4 25% 30% -16.8 34% 38% -10.8
17.12.23 Newcastle Jets (W) vs Western United (W) 4-2 32% 34% -6.4 24% 29% -14.8 44% 50% -12.1
17.12.23 Perth Glory (W) vs Sydney FC (W) 0-0 20% 22% -8.4 22% 26% -13.7 57% 65% -10.9
22.12.23 Sydney FC (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 1-1 68% 74% -8.1 18% 22% -17.6 14% 15% -8.2
22.12.23 Western United (W) vs Perth Glory (W) 1-0 42% 44% -6.3 25% 29% -16.3 34% 38% -12.2
23.12.23 Canberra United (W) vs Central Coast Mariners (W) 0-3 37% 38% -3.1 25% 30% -16.6 37% 43% -13.9
23.12.23 Melbourne City (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W) 1-0 39% 43% -10.1 24% 29% -15.3 37% 41% -10.1
23.12.23 Wellington Phoenix (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W) 2-0 48% 53% -10.3 24% 28% -15.3 28% 31% -7.4
23.12.23 Western Sydney Wanderers (W) vs Adelaide United (W) 0-1 50% 56% -9.3 22% 26% -15.0 27% 30% -10.2
28.12.23 Melbourne City (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 5-3 63% 69% -9.9 20% 23% -15.1 18% 19% -6.5
29.12.23 Sydney FC (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W) 1-0 61% 67% -8.4 20% 24% -17.5 18% 21% -11.7
30.12.23 Canberra United (W) vs Western United (W) 1-1 30% 31% -3.7 23% 27% -13.4 46% 54% -14.0
30.12.23 Western Sydney Wanderers (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W) 2-0 22% 23% -4.8 23% 26% -13.3 55% 62% -11.7
31.12.23 Central Coast Mariners (W) vs Perth Glory (W) 1-2 40% 44% -10.1 27% 32% -17.7 33% 36% -6.3
31.12.23 Newcastle Jets (W) vs Adelaide United (W) 3-1 47% 52% -9.1 24% 29% -16.4 29% 32% -10.0
03.01.24 Sydney FC (W) vs Canberra United (W) 1-1 75% 83% -8.7 14% 17% -14.6 10% 11% -7.3
06.01.24 Adelaide United (W) vs Melbourne City (W) 0-5 19% 21% -6.7 20% 23% -10.3 60% 68% -11.5
06.01.24 Melbourne Victory (W) vs Western United (W) 1-4 54% 59% -8.0 22% 27% -16.7 24% 27% -11.3
06.01.24 Newcastle Jets (W) vs Canberra United (W) 3-3 49% 55% -10.6 23% 27% -14.4 28% 30% -7.4
07.01.24 Brisbane Roar (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W) 2-1 50% 56% -11.8 23% 28% -15.6 27% 29% -5.5
07.01.24 Central Coast Mariners (W) vs Sydney FC (W) 0-0 25% 29% -12.4 25% 29% -16.4 50% 55% -7.8
07.01.24 Perth Glory (W) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 0-2 39% 42% -7.1 26% 31% -16.8 35% 39% -10.3
12.01.24 Melbourne Victory (W) vs Perth Glory (W) 1-1 57% 62% -7.8 22% 26% -17.6 21% 24% -12.1
12.01.24 Wellington Phoenix (W) vs Central Coast Mariners (W) 1-2 35% 38% -7.8 25% 30% -16.2 40% 44% -10.4
13.01.24 Brisbane Roar (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W) 1-2 49% 54% -10.2 23% 27% -14.6 28% 31% -7.7
13.01.24 Canberra United (W) vs Adelaide United (W) 3-1 47% 52% -10.0 23% 27% -14.0 30% 33% -8.7
14.01.24 Western Sydney Wanderers (W) vs Melbourne City (W) 1-0 25% 27% -7.0 23% 26% -13.3 52% 60% -12.0
14.01.24 Western United (W) vs Sydney FC (W) 0-1 28% 31% -8.6 25% 29% -15.3 47% 52% -9.3
17.01.24 Sydney FC (W) vs Central Coast Mariners (W) 1-2 53% 58% -8.0 24% 29% -17.7 23% 26% -9.1
20.01.24 Canberra United (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W) 2-3 24% 26% -7.3 22% 26% -12.5 54% 61% -11.2
20.01.24 Melbourne City (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W) 2-1 65% 72% -10.0 19% 22% -14.8 16% 17% -6.5
20.01.24 Perth Glory (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 0-0 39% 43% -7.8 25% 30% -16.3 35% 39% -9.7
21.01.24 Central Coast Mariners (W) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 1-2 45% 48% -5.8 25% 30% -18.0 30% 35% -13.1
21.01.24 Sydney FC (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W) 2-1 60% 66% -8.6 21% 25% -16.6 19% 21% -8.7
21.01.24 Western United (W) vs Adelaide United (W) 1-0 64% 70% -9.4 20% 23% -15.2 17% 17% -4.5
25.01.24 Melbourne City (W) vs Western United (W) 1-3 52% 58% -10.3 23% 27% -15.4 25% 27% -7.6
26.01.24 Melbourne Victory (W) vs Sydney FC (W) 1-1 38% 41% -7.4 25% 31% -17.3 37% 42% -11.9
27.01.24 Adelaide United (W) vs Perth Glory (W) 2-1 34% 38% -10.1 25% 29% -15.5 41% 45% -9.3
27.01.24 Western Sydney Wanderers (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 1-3 45% 50% -10.7 24% 29% -15.6 31% 34% -7.8
28.01.24 Newcastle Jets (W) vs Central Coast Mariners (W) 0-2 34% 36% -5.8 24% 28% -14.1 43% 49% -12.8
28.01.24 Wellington Phoenix (W) vs Canberra United (W) 2-0 54% 62% -12.9 22% 25% -13.4 24% 25% -3.1
03.02.24 Adelaide United (W) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 2-1 30% 32% -8.3 25% 29% -15.8 46% 51% -11.0
03.02.24 Brisbane Roar (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W) 1-2 37% 42% -12.9 25% 29% -15.4 38% 41% -6.0
03.02.24 Sydney FC (W) vs Perth Glory (W) 3-1 69% 77% -10.1 18% 21% -14.5 13% 13% 0.8
03.02.24 Western United (W) vs Central Coast Mariners (W) 2-1 50% 55% -9.8 24% 29% -16.4 27% 29% -7.1
04.02.24 Canberra United (W) vs Melbourne City (W) 3-1 18% 19% -5.5 19% 21% -8.3 63% 71% -11.6
04.02.24 Newcastle Jets (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W) 3-2 45% 51% -10.7 24% 29% -16.0 31% 34% -8.9
09.02.24 Western Sydney Wanderers (W) vs Newcastle Jets (W) 2-1 48% 53% -10.2 24% 28% -15.3 28% 31% -7.5
10.02.24 Central Coast Mariners (W) vs Melbourne Victory (W) 1-1 34% 37% -9.1 25% 29% -15.8 42% 47% -10.7
10.02.24 Melbourne City (W) vs Sydney FC (W) 0-0 35% 37% -5.9 25% 30% -16.5 40% 45% -12.3
10.02.24 Perth Glory (W) vs Canberra United (W) 2-2 41% 44% -8.3 25% 29% -16.4 35% 39% -11.6
11.02.24 Western United (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 3-2 52% 60% -11.8 23% 27% -14.8 24% 25% -2.1
16.02.24 Melbourne Victory (W) vs Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 4-0 52% 58% -9.9 24% 29% -17.1 24% 26% -6.6
17.02.24 Canberra United (W) vs Sydney FC (W) 0-0 18% 19% -3.6 21% 24% -12.0 60% 68% -11.5
17.02.24 Newcastle Jets (W) vs Brisbane Roar (W) 3-0 37% 42% -11.2 24% 29% -14.8 38% 42% -8.3
18.02.24 Melbourne City (W) vs Adelaide United (W) 1-1 65% 70% -7.9 18% 22% -16.8 17% 19% -12.6
18.02.24 Perth Glory (W) vs Central Coast Mariners (W) 1-3 26% 26% -1.9 24% 28% -14.1 50% 58% -13.5
18.02.24 Western United (W) vs Wellington Phoenix (W) 3-0 68% 79% -13.0 18% 20% -11.8 14% 13% 7.7
Showing the 100 most recent of 402 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Wellington Phoenix (W) 1386.11
2 Canberra United (W) 1384.63
3 Melbourne City (W) 1379.69
4 Melbourne Victory (W) 1308.65
5 Western United (W) 1303.13
6 Brisbane Roar (W) 1261.35
7 Central Coast Mariners (W) 1233.45
8 Adelaide United (W) 1202.67
9 Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 1199.97
10 Perth Glory (W) 1171.63
11 Sydney FC (W) 1165.81
12 Newcastle Jets (W) 1150.79

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Melbourne City (W) 1398.61
2 Canberra United (W) 1311.33
3 Wellington Phoenix (W) 1295.34
4 Western United (W) 1280.53
5 Melbourne Victory (W) 1224.85
6 Adelaide United (W) 1206.47
7 Brisbane Roar (W) 1199.97
8 Perth Glory (W) 1167.10
9 Central Coast Mariners (W) 1153.74
10 Newcastle Jets (W) 1153.10
11 Western Sydney Wanderers (W) 1084.29
12 Sydney FC (W) 1078.92