ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 507
Avg Goals 3.12
Avg Home 1.65
Avg Away 1.47
Home Win % 38.1%
Draw % 26.6%
Away Win % 35.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 507
Avg Brier Score 0.6395
Pick Accuracy 46.2%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6395
Market Brier 0.6421
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 7
Value Bet Hit Rate 28.6%
ROI (flat stake) 142.9%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 71.4% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 5 of 507 matches had at least one · staked 7.00, profit 10.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
away 5 40.0% 5.00 12.00 240.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 17.2% 17.7% 62
20–30% 25.6% 27.1% 733
30–40% 35.0% 33.3% 339
40–50% 44.4% 44.6% 231
50–60% 54.0% 47.6% 126
60–70% 63.6% 67.9% 28
70–80% 72.0% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
20.10.23 Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners 3-0 38% 41% -8.0 27% 27% -1.5 36% 39% -8.7
21.10.23 Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar 1-1 36% 37% -3.4 27% 29% -4.1 37% 42% -12.8
21.10.23 Melbourne City vs Western United FC 1-2 56% 62% -9.5 24% 24% -2.2 20% 21% -3.7
21.10.23 Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory 0-2 47% 53% -10.8 27% 29% -4.5 26% 26% -2.1
22.10.23 Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets 2-2 41% 47% -12.2 27% 29% -4.1 32% 33% -4.7
22.10.23 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Wellington Phoenix 0-0 52% 59% -11.0 25% 25% -0.8 23% 23% -1.0
27.10.23 Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC 3-0 33% 36% -8.7 28% 29% -3.5 40% 43% -8.4
28.10.23 Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory 2-1 44% 49% -9.6 27% 28% -3.2 29% 31% -5.8
28.10.23 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Western United FC 5-0 47% 53% -9.9 26% 27% -3.1 26% 28% -5.1
29.10.23 Adelaide United vs Melbourne City 6-0 34% 38% -9.3 26% 27% -1.3 39% 43% -9.3
29.10.23 Central Coast Mariners vs Macarthur FC 1-2 56% 62% -10.8 23% 23% 0.2 21% 22% -3.1
29.10.23 Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets 5-3 54% 62% -12.7 25% 25% -0.3 21% 20% 6.0
03.11.23 Melbourne City vs Sydney FC 2-0 49% 55% -11.0 25% 26% -1.4 26% 27% -4.3
04.11.23 Macarthur FC vs Western United FC 1-0 40% 42% -5.1 27% 28% -3.2 33% 37% -10.8
04.11.23 Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United 1-1 43% 50% -13.6 26% 27% -1.5 31% 31% -2.2
04.11.23 Perth Glory vs Central Coast Mariners 2-0 31% 36% -14.2 27% 28% -3.1 42% 43% -3.7
04.11.23 Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar 5-2 37% 41% -8.2 27% 28% -2.9 36% 39% -9.3
05.11.23 Newcastle Jets vs Western Sydney Wanderers 2-2 27% 29% -7.4 26% 27% -1.3 46% 51% -9.4
10.11.23 Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix 1-1 54% 61% -12.3 24% 24% 0.4 22% 21% 3.2
11.11.23 Adelaide United vs Sydney FC 1-5 42% 48% -11.7 26% 26% -1.2 32% 34% -5.8
11.11.23 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Perth Glory 2-0 57% 65% -12.3 24% 24% -0.4 19% 18% 4.3
11.11.23 Western United FC vs Newcastle Jets 0-1 45% 51% -11.5 26% 26% -1.7 29% 30% -5.1
12.11.23 Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar 1-2 44% 48% -7.3 26% 27% -3.5 30% 33% -10.7
12.11.23 Melbourne City vs Macarthur FC 3-3 57% 65% -11.9 23% 23% 1.2 20% 20% 0.8
24.11.23 Macarthur FC vs Melbourne Victory 1-1 29% 30% -3.0 27% 27% -1.7 44% 51% -12.8
25.11.23 Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets 3-1 53% 58% -9.6 24% 24% -0.4 23% 25% -6.3
25.11.23 Sydney FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers 0-1 39% 43% -9.2 27% 27% -1.6 35% 38% -7.8
25.11.23 Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City 1-0 25% 27% -8.1 27% 28% -3.2 48% 53% -8.3
26.11.23 Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory 2-1 52% 59% -11.1 25% 25% -1.5 23% 24% -3.1
26.11.23 Western United FC vs Adelaide United 1-3 37% 42% -11.6 27% 27% -1.8 37% 39% -6.6
01.12.23 Brisbane Roar vs Western Sydney Wanderers 2-2 40% 44% -9.6 27% 29% -4.0 32% 35% -7.2
02.12.23 Sydney FC vs Perth Glory 3-2 56% 64% -12.0 23% 23% 1.5 21% 20% 2.6
02.12.23 Western United FC vs Wellington Phoenix 0-1 43% 48% -10.6 27% 28% -3.0 30% 32% -5.5
03.12.23 Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory 2-2 38% 41% -7.3 26% 27% -2.1 36% 40% -10.7
03.12.23 Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne City 0-2 27% 29% -9.8 26% 26% -1.4 48% 52% -8.3
04.12.23 Macarthur FC vs Adelaide United 4-3 38% 42% -9.4 26% 27% -1.6 36% 39% -9.3
08.12.23 Central Coast Mariners vs Western United FC 4-0 51% 56% -9.6 25% 25% -1.3 24% 26% -5.4
08.12.23 Perth Glory vs Melbourne City 1-2 22% 24% -7.6 25% 26% -1.3 53% 58% -8.9
09.12.23 Sydney FC vs Macarthur FC 0-2 54% 62% -11.8 23% 23% 1.6 22% 22% -0.5
09.12.23 Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets 0-3 49% 56% -12.4 26% 26% -1.8 25% 25% -0.2
10.12.23 Adelaide United vs Brisbane Roar 0-2 41% 47% -11.9 26% 26% -0.2 33% 36% -6.4
10.12.23 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne Victory 3-4 36% 40% -9.1 28% 29% -3.6 36% 39% -8.0
15.12.23 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Adelaide United 1-0 52% 60% -14.4 24% 24% 2.2 24% 23% 4.5
15.12.23 Western United FC vs Brisbane Roar 2-1 35% 38% -8.8 27% 28% -2.2 38% 41% -7.5
16.12.23 Melbourne Victory vs Sydney FC 3-0 43% 49% -11.6 27% 28% -3.0 30% 31% -4.2
16.12.23 Newcastle Jets vs Perth Glory 2-2 45% 51% -11.2 27% 27% -1.8 29% 29% -2.7
17.12.23 Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners 3-3 47% 53% -10.9 25% 26% -1.1 28% 29% -5.6
18.12.23 Macarthur FC vs Wellington Phoenix 0-3 45% 49% -7.3 27% 28% -4.5 28% 31% -9.6
21.12.23 Brisbane Roar vs Central Coast Mariners 0-3 35% 37% -6.2 27% 27% -1.7 39% 43% -11.1
22.12.23 Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets 3-1 45% 51% -11.0 26% 26% -0.5 30% 31% -5.5
23.12.23 Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory 0-0 38% 42% -8.2 27% 29% -4.0 34% 38% -9.1
23.12.23 Perth Glory vs Macarthur FC 3-2 37% 41% -10.3 27% 28% -2.7 36% 39% -7.3
23.12.23 Sydney FC vs Western United FC 4-2 56% 65% -13.6 23% 23% 1.6 21% 20% 4.0
23.12.23 Wellington Phoenix vs Western Sydney Wanderers 2-0 37% 42% -12.3 28% 29% -3.5 35% 37% -4.3
28.12.23 Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar 8-1 53% 61% -12.6 24% 24% 0.3 23% 22% 1.6
29.12.23 Sydney FC vs Wellington Phoenix 3-1 50% 56% -11.8 25% 26% -1.0 25% 25% -1.0
30.12.23 Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United 2-0 53% 59% -10.3 24% 24% -0.6 23% 24% -3.6
30.12.23 Newcastle Jets vs Western United FC 2-0 41% 45% -10.1 27% 28% -2.5 32% 34% -5.4
31.12.23 Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory 4-2 58% 67% -12.9 22% 22% 3.2 19% 18% 5.0
01.01.24 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Macarthur FC 3-1 52% 60% -12.7 24% 24% 0.9 24% 24% -1.5
04.01.24 Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix 2-2 45% 52% -12.3 26% 26% 0.1 29% 29% -1.8
05.01.24 Macarthur FC vs Newcastle Jets 1-1 42% 47% -8.7 26% 26% -1.4 32% 34% -8.4
06.01.24 Brisbane Roar vs Sydney FC 1-2 33% 35% -6.1 26% 26% 0.6 42% 47% -10.8
06.01.24 Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory 2-3 23% 24% -3.3 26% 26% -1.2 51% 57% -10.8
06.01.24 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Central Coast Mariners 0-1 35% 38% -7.9 27% 28% -2.8 38% 42% -9.8
07.01.24 Western United FC vs Melbourne City 1-2 22% 23% -2.9 25% 24% 1.2 53% 60% -11.6
08.01.24 Adelaide United vs Macarthur FC 1-1 55% 65% -14.7 23% 22% 5.0 22% 21% 5.3
12.01.24 Macarthur FC vs Western United FC 3-3 38% 41% -6.1 26% 26% -1.0 36% 40% -10.9
12.01.24 Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers 0-1 41% 44% -6.7 26% 27% -2.4 32% 36% -9.9
13.01.24 Adelaide United vs Sydney FC 4-3 29% 29% 1.8 25% 24% 2.2 46% 54% -15.0
13.01.24 Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory 1-1 36% 39% -7.0 28% 29% -3.8 36% 40% -9.9
14.01.24 Brisbane Roar vs Newcastle Jets 3-2 39% 42% -6.1 26% 27% -2.6 35% 39% -11.9
14.01.24 Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix 3-4 33% 34% -4.0 27% 28% -2.7 40% 45% -12.3
18.01.24 Brisbane Roar vs Macarthur FC 1-3 44% 49% -10.7 25% 26% -0.6 31% 33% -7.2
19.01.24 Sydney FC vs Newcastle Jets 4-0 56% 64% -11.3 22% 22% 3.5 21% 21% -0.2
19.01.24 Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory 1-1 31% 34% -8.8 27% 28% -2.6 42% 45% -8.7
20.01.24 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Perth Glory 1-2 59% 68% -13.7 22% 21% 4.6 19% 18% 5.8
21.01.24 Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City 2-1 42% 47% -10.4 26% 27% -1.9 32% 35% -7.6
23.01.24 Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar 3-1 45% 52% -12.7 26% 26% -0.4 29% 30% -3.4
25.01.24 Melbourne City vs Adelaide United 1-0 46% 53% -13.0 25% 24% 1.1 29% 30% -4.2
26.01.24 Melbourne Victory vs Sydney FC 1-1 42% 47% -9.1 27% 27% -1.8 31% 33% -6.4
27.01.24 Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar 2-0 62% 70% -11.6 21% 21% 2.9 16% 15% 6.2
27.01.24 Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix 1-2 40% 45% -12.4 26% 27% -2.1 34% 36% -5.6
27.01.24 Western United FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers 0-1 30% 32% -7.7 26% 26% -0.7 44% 49% -9.6
28.01.24 Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory 2-2 48% 56% -13.9 24% 24% 2.0 28% 29% -2.4
02.02.24 Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix 1-1 41% 48% -12.9 27% 27% -0.6 32% 32% -0.7
02.02.24 Perth Glory vs Melbourne City 4-2 29% 32% -9.1 26% 26% -0.8 45% 49% -8.7
03.02.24 Adelaide United vs Central Coast Mariners 0-4 34% 38% -9.1 26% 26% -0.6 40% 43% -9.1
03.02.24 Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory 1-1 27% 28% -4.3 27% 27% -1.6 47% 53% -11.0
03.02.24 Western United FC vs Sydney FC 2-2 25% 26% -3.6 25% 24% 1.8 50% 57% -11.7
04.02.24 Macarthur FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers 4-3 33% 36% -9.5 27% 27% -1.7 41% 44% -8.8
06.02.24 Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners 0-0 31% 34% -8.5 28% 29% -3.0 41% 44% -7.1
09.02.24 Adelaide United vs Perth Glory 3-3 53% 60% -12.8 23% 23% 2.9 24% 24% -1.3
10.02.24 Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City 5-1 28% 31% -8.2 26% 26% -1.0 46% 51% -9.6
10.02.24 Central Coast Mariners vs Sydney FC 1-3 45% 51% -10.3 26% 26% -1.4 29% 30% -5.2
10.02.24 Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur FC 0-1 66% 76% -13.2 19% 17% 10.1 15% 13% 13.3
10.02.24 Wellington Phoenix vs Western United FC 2-0 44% 49% -9.8 27% 28% -3.2 29% 31% -5.4
11.02.24 Western Sydney Wanderers vs Newcastle Jets 3-3 54% 61% -12.4 24% 24% 0.7 22% 22% 0.3
16.02.24 Western United FC vs Newcastle Jets 2-0 41% 45% -10.3 26% 27% -2.4 33% 36% -8.1
17.02.24 Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory 0-0 33% 35% -6.2 27% 28% -2.2 40% 44% -9.7
Showing the 100 most recent of 507 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Adelaide United 1978.49
2 Melbourne Victory 1966.59
3 Melbourne City 1962.31
4 Western Sydney Wanderers 1956.97
5 Sydney FC 1948.27
6 Newcastle Jets 1927.99
7 Auckland FC 1924.30
8 Macarthur FC 1903.71
9 Brisbane Roar 1895.97
10 Wellington Phoenix 1858.46
11 Perth Glory 1853.06
12 Central Coast Mariners 1760.51

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Melbourne City 1941.39
2 Auckland FC 1923.27
3 Western Sydney Wanderers 1921.28
4 Melbourne Victory 1889.59
5 Sydney FC 1879.61
6 Adelaide United 1860.01
7 Wellington Phoenix 1856.14
8 Macarthur FC 1831.25
9 Perth Glory 1818.26
10 Brisbane Roar 1748.01
11 Newcastle Jets 1729.29
12 Central Coast Mariners 1717.47