ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 296
Avg Goals 3.55
Avg Home 1.89
Avg Away 1.66
Home Win % 44.9%
Draw % 17.9%
Away Win % 37.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 296
Avg Brier Score 0.5603
Pick Accuracy 59.1%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5632
Market Brier 0.5626
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 6
Value Bet Hit Rate 33.3%
ROI (flat stake) 89.2%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 6 of 296 matches had at least one · staked 6.00, profit 5.35 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 3 33.3% 3.00 3.75 125.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 3 33.3% 3.00 1.60 53.3%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.3% 3.8% 26
10–20% 16.3% 17.4% 247
20–30% 22.7% 22.7% 225
30–40% 35.4% 29.8% 104
40–50% 44.2% 55.3% 85
50–60% 54.5% 50.0% 76
60–70% 64.6% 68.0% 75
70–80% 74.5% 60.5% 38
80–90% 84.1% 90.0% 10
90–100% 90.6% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
10.05.24 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane vs St. George Willawong 1-3 38% 43% -11.0 22% 28% -21.6 40% 42% -4.4
11.05.24 Brisbane Strikers vs Caboolture FC 3-1 75% 78% -3.1 14% 18% -24.6 11% 15% -24.7
11.05.24 Ipswich FC vs Broadbeach United 2-1 24% 15% 58.9 17% 20% -14.3 59% 76% -22.3
11.05.24 Moreton City Excelsior U21 vs Logan Lightning 1-5 34% 31% 11.6 21% 27% -20.8 45% 55% -18.9
12.05.24 Capalaba Bulldogs vs SWQ Thunder 2-0 25% 26% -3.9 18% 23% -18.9 57% 63% -10.0
18.05.24 Broadbeach United vs Moreton City Excelsior U21 5-0 73% 74% -1.4 15% 21% -27.7 12% 17% -28.7
18.05.24 Caboolture FC vs Ipswich FC 3-0 42% 54% -21.6 21% 26% -21.4 37% 31% 18.3
19.05.24 Logan Lightning vs Mitchelton FC 4-0 82% 84% -2.0 10% 15% -29.3 7% 11% -31.4
19.05.24 St. George Willawong vs Brisbane Strikers 3-2 44% 42% 4.8 21% 27% -22.4 35% 44% -20.5
25.05.24 Broadbeach United vs Mitchelton FC 3-0 89% 93% -3.8 6% 9% -31.1 5% 7% -34.0
25.05.24 Caboolture FC vs Moreton City Excelsior U21 3-2 51% 64% -19.3 19% 23% -17.7 30% 26% 16.6
25.05.24 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane vs Capalaba Bulldogs 5-2 59% 65% -8.9 19% 23% -19.3 23% 24% -7.2
25.05.24 Southside Eagles vs Logan Lightning 2-3 18% 23% -19.9 18% 24% -24.6 64% 65% -1.5
25.05.24 SWQ Thunder vs Brisbane Strikers 4-4 34% 29% 19.8 22% 29% -22.1 44% 55% -20.8
26.05.24 St. George Willawong vs Ipswich FC 2-0 78% 84% -6.6 12% 15% -19.5 9% 11% -13.4
28.05.24 Southside Eagles vs Capalaba Bulldogs 1-3 30% 33% -9.7 21% 26% -21.6 49% 53% -7.4
01.06.24 Brisbane Strikers vs Capalaba Bulldogs 3-1 70% 74% -4.8 15% 19% -20.7 15% 18% -18.2
01.06.24 Ipswich FC vs SWQ Thunder 2-1 13% 16% -17.9 15% 20% -24.1 72% 75% -4.7
02.06.24 Mitchelton FC vs Caboolture FC 2-3 13% 15% -15.1 14% 18% -21.8 73% 77% -5.5
02.06.24 St. George Willawong vs Moreton City Excelsior U21 2-0 83% 88% -6.7 10% 12% -17.9 7% 8% -13.7
07.06.24 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane vs Brisbane Strikers 2-1 37% 43% -13.3 20% 24% -19.6 44% 45% -4.3
08.06.24 Caboolture FC vs Logan Lightning 1-1 20% 26% -22.3 19% 26% -26.3 61% 60% 0.8
08.06.24 Capalaba Bulldogs vs Ipswich FC 0-5 51% 57% -10.6 21% 27% -20.9 28% 29% -2.7
09.06.24 Broadbeach United vs Southside Eagles 1-1 78% 78% -0.8 13% 18% -29.8 10% 14% -31.9
09.06.24 St. George Willawong vs Mitchelton FC 3-1 89% 93% -4.4 7% 10% -30.6 4% 6% -33.0
11.06.24 Capalaba Bulldogs vs Logan Lightning 1-2 20% 26% -22.3 18% 24% -25.0 62% 62% -0.7
15.06.24 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane vs Ipswich FC 1-1 74% 81% -8.6 13% 16% -15.7 13% 14% -7.2
15.06.24 Moreton City Excelsior U21 vs Capalaba Bulldogs 0-5 34% 40% -14.7 20% 24% -20.0 46% 48% -2.6
15.06.24 Southside Eagles vs Brisbane Strikers 1-0 19% 23% -16.1 16% 21% -21.7 64% 68% -5.2
16.06.24 Broadbeach United vs Caboolture FC 0-3 66% 65% 3.0 17% 23% -27.5 17% 24% -29.5
16.06.24 St. George Willawong vs Logan Lightning 3-1 51% 55% -7.8 22% 28% -22.2 28% 30% -8.5
21.06.24 Brisbane Strikers vs Ipswich FC 4-1 65% 67% -2.5 17% 23% -23.3 18% 22% -20.9
22.06.24 Capalaba Bulldogs vs Mitchelton FC 5-0 65% 65% -0.7 13% 17% -19.2 22% 29% -26.4
23.06.24 Caboolture FC vs Southside Eagles 4-0 56% 58% -4.5 20% 26% -21.6 24% 28% -13.4
23.06.24 St. George Willawong vs Broadbeach United 2-2 53% 56% -5.5 21% 26% -21.6 26% 29% -11.8
23.06.24 SWQ Thunder vs Logan Lightning 1-2 37% 40% -7.3 22% 28% -21.3 41% 44% -7.6
26.06.24 Logan Lightning vs Broadbeach United 6-0 47% 51% -6.8 21% 27% -20.9 32% 34% -8.5
29.06.24 SWQ Thunder vs Broadbeach United 1-2 39% 41% -4.5 21% 27% -20.8 40% 44% -10.8
05.07.24 Logan Lightning vs Capalaba Bulldogs 1-1 67% 69% -3.8 17% 22% -23.2 16% 21% -20.8
05.07.24 Moreton City Excelsior U21 vs Brisbane Strikers 1-4 11% 14% -19.2 12% 15% -22.1 77% 81% -5.5
06.07.24 Caboolture FC vs St. George Willawong 2-3 19% 26% -27.1 18% 25% -27.8 63% 61% 3.6
06.07.24 Southside Eagles vs Ipswich FC 1-0 43% 47% -8.4 21% 27% -20.7 36% 38% -6.5
12.07.24 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane vs Logan Lightning 3-2 47% 55% -14.6 20% 26% -20.1 33% 32% 1.8
13.07.24 Brisbane Strikers vs Mitchelton FC 1-0 91% 95% -4.3 6% 8% -29.8 3% 4% -31.7
13.07.24 Capalaba Bulldogs vs Broadbeach United 1-4 37% 42% -11.3 21% 27% -20.9 41% 43% -4.6
13.07.24 Ipswich FC vs Moreton City Excelsior U21 1-1 58% 62% -5.8 19% 24% -20.8 23% 26% -11.9
14.07.24 St. George Willawong vs Southside Eagles 0-2 75% 78% -2.9 15% 20% -26.4 10% 13% -24.9
14.07.24 SWQ Thunder vs Caboolture FC 0-4 46% 45% 2.2 22% 28% -22.5 32% 39% -18.3
21.07.24 Capalaba Bulldogs vs Caboolture FC 1-4 36% 37% -1.9 20% 26% -20.1 43% 50% -13.6
21.07.24 Mitchelton FC vs Ipswich FC 0-0 19% 25% -22.8 18% 25% -26.2 62% 62% -0.4
21.07.24 St. George Willawong vs SWQ Thunder 4-1 62% 64% -2.9 18% 24% -22.8 20% 24% -19.0
27.07.24 Broadbeach United vs SWQ Thunder 4-1 49% 51% -5.3 21% 26% -21.2 31% 35% -12.4
02.08.24 Ipswich FC vs Logan Lightning 1-2 16% 21% -25.0 18% 24% -27.8 67% 67% 0.1
03.08.24 Capalaba Bulldogs vs St. George Willawong 1-3 15% 19% -20.3 16% 22% -25.0 69% 71% -3.4
03.08.24 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane vs Caboolture FC 3-0 58% 61% -5.5 18% 23% -20.3 24% 28% -14.9
04.08.24 Brisbane Strikers vs Broadbeach United 2-2 53% 55% -3.4 21% 27% -22.2 26% 31% -14.8
10.08.24 Broadbeach United vs Ipswich FC 1-2 74% 76% -3.6 15% 19% -23.0 12% 15% -20.7
10.08.24 Caboolture FC vs Brisbane Strikers 0-3 33% 38% -12.4 21% 26% -21.5 46% 49% -5.1
10.08.24 Logan Lightning vs Moreton City Excelsior U21 5-0 90% 95% -5.5 6% 8% -23.3 4% 5% -25.2
10.08.24 St. George Willawong vs Eastern Suburbs Brisbane 2-1 45% 45% -2.0 21% 27% -20.9 34% 40% -14.1
10.08.24 SWQ Thunder vs Capalaba Bulldogs 2-1 54% 55% -0.3 19% 24% -21.5 27% 34% -20.9
18.08.24 Brisbane Strikers vs St. George Willawong 1-0 42% 45% -7.1 21% 27% -21.4 37% 41% -10.5
18.08.24 Capalaba Bulldogs vs Southside Eagles 0-1 41% 41% -0.7 22% 28% -21.3 38% 43% -13.5
18.08.24 Ipswich FC vs Caboolture FC 1-2 23% 28% -16.1 20% 26% -23.8 57% 58% -2.6
18.08.24 Mitchelton FC vs Logan Lightning 5-3 7% 10% -33.0 10% 14% -32.2 84% 85% -2.2
18.08.24 Moreton City Excelsior U21 vs Broadbeach United 0-3 8% 11% -28.3 10% 14% -27.9 82% 85% -3.8
31.08.24 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane vs Brisbane Strikers 2-1 39% 42% -6.0 21% 26% -20.5 40% 44% -10.2
31.08.24 St. George Willawong vs Logan Lightning 2-1 39% 43% -9.2 21% 27% -21.1 39% 42% -7.1
07.09.24 St. George Willawong vs Eastern Suburbs Brisbane 2-2 42% 43% -2.3 21% 27% -20.9 37% 43% -13.0
21.02.25 Holland Park Hawks vs Redlands United 1-4 50% 53% -6.4 21% 26% -19.9 29% 32% -8.8
22.02.25 Caboolture FC vs Rochedale Rovers 0-1 26% 29% -12.1 20% 25% -21.6 55% 58% -5.6
22.02.25 Capalaba Bulldogs vs Brisbane Strikers 2-3 9% 10% -14.3 14% 19% -25.2 77% 81% -5.3
22.02.25 Ipswich FC vs Logan Lightning 3-1 18% 25% -27.8 18% 26% -28.8 64% 62% 3.2
23.02.25 SWQ Thunder vs Broadbeach United 0-2 20% 22% -8.7 18% 23% -20.9 62% 67% -7.3
01.03.25 Broadbeach United vs Ipswich FC 2-0 67% 67% 0.6 17% 23% -26.3 15% 21% -26.4
01.03.25 Logan Lightning vs Caboolture FC 2-2 54% 56% -4.7 20% 26% -21.5 26% 30% -14.0
01.03.25 Magic United FC vs Holland Park Hawks 4-0 69% 72% -4.3 16% 20% -22.3 15% 19% -20.5
02.03.25 Capalaba Bulldogs vs Rochedale Rovers 3-2 10% 12% -14.6 14% 18% -23.4 76% 80% -5.3
02.03.25 SWQ Thunder vs Redlands United 0-2 21% 23% -8.3 19% 24% -21.5 60% 65% -7.5
21.03.25 Rochedale Rovers vs Holland Park Hawks 2-3 71% 73% -2.7 17% 22% -25.5 12% 16% -22.2
22.03.25 Brisbane Strikers vs SWQ Thunder 2-0 76% 76% -0.8 14% 19% -28.8 11% 15% -30.6
22.03.25 Ipswich FC vs Capalaba Bulldogs 2-4 45% 47% -2.2 21% 27% -21.6 33% 39% -15.0
22.03.25 Logan Lightning vs Southside Eagles 3-0 74% 78% -4.9 15% 19% -23.3 11% 14% -19.4
23.03.25 Broadbeach United vs Caboolture FC 3-2 61% 62% -2.2 18% 24% -22.8 20% 26% -20.1
23.03.25 Magic United FC vs Redlands United 2-3 64% 68% -6.7 18% 23% -20.9 19% 21% -12.0
04.04.25 Caboolture FC vs Southside Eagles 1-2 72% 77% -6.3 16% 20% -21.8 12% 14% -13.8
05.04.25 Brisbane Strikers vs Magic United FC 5-0 47% 52% -8.6 21% 26% -19.9 32% 34% -6.9
05.04.25 Redlands United vs Rochedale Rovers 1-4 38% 44% -14.6 22% 28% -21.8 40% 40% 0.8
06.04.25 Logan Lightning vs SWQ Thunder 4-2 67% 67% -0.4 18% 24% -26.2 16% 21% -25.2
13.04.25 SWQ Thunder vs Ipswich FC 2-1 44% 44% -1.0 22% 28% -21.7 34% 40% -14.4
22.04.25 Broadbeach United vs Capalaba Bulldogs 4-3 65% 63% 2.8 17% 23% -27.1 18% 26% -29.4
26.04.25 Brisbane Strikers vs Rochedale Rovers 0-5 41% 44% -6.7 21% 26% -19.9 38% 42% -9.9
26.04.25 Caboolture FC vs SWQ Thunder 6-1 63% 65% -3.1 17% 22% -22.3 19% 24% -20.5
26.04.25 Ipswich FC vs Redlands United 1-1 24% 31% -22.2 21% 28% -25.8 55% 53% 3.0
03.05.25 Brisbane Strikers vs Logan Lightning 4-1 51% 52% -2.5 21% 26% -21.8 29% 34% -16.1
03.05.25 Capalaba Bulldogs vs SWQ Thunder 1-2 54% 55% -1.7 20% 26% -22.3 26% 32% -18.3
03.05.25 Holland Park Hawks vs Southside Eagles 5-1 64% 67% -4.7 18% 23% -22.3 18% 22% -16.8
03.05.25 Magic United FC vs Ipswich FC 3-0 68% 70% -2.4 16% 21% -23.2 16% 20% -22.1
03.05.25 Rochedale Rovers vs Broadbeach United 2-2 56% 58% -2.7 20% 26% -22.9 24% 29% -18.4
06.05.25 Redlands United vs Caboolture FC 1-4 47% 51% -8.7 20% 25% -19.4 33% 36% -7.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 296 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Brisbane Strikers 1539.33
2 Broadbeach United 1500.30
3 Sunshine Coast FC 1450.36
4 Robina City 1418.10
5 Caboolture FC 1394.69
6 Ipswich FC 1392.62
7 Logan Lightning 1353.15
8 Redlands United 1343.82
9 North Star 1308.62
10 St. George Willawong 1207.66
11 Holland Park Hawks 1179.28
12 Capalaba Bulldogs 1108.34

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Broadbeach United 1500.56
2 Brisbane Strikers 1477.18
3 Sunshine Coast FC 1415.26
4 Logan Lightning 1362.52
5 Ipswich FC 1342.75
6 Robina City 1315.10
7 Caboolture FC 1313.82
8 Redlands United 1308.41
9 North Star 1298.98
10 Holland Park Hawks 1227.93
11 St. George Willawong 1211.36
12 Capalaba Bulldogs 1115.68