ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 277
Avg Goals 3.85
Avg Home 2.03
Avg Away 1.83
Home Win % 43.3%
Draw % 13.7%
Away Win % 43.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 277
Avg Brier Score 0.4826
Pick Accuracy 66.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4934
Market Brier 0.4912
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 22
Value Bet Hit Rate 31.8%
ROI (flat stake) -31.1%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 22 of 277 matches had at least one · staked 22.00, profit -6.85 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 12 41.7% 12.00 -1.45 -12.1%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 10 20.0% 10.00 -5.40 -54.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.4% 11.5% 104
10–20% 15.9% 14.3% 314
20–30% 23.8% 24.4% 86
30–40% 34.7% 28.0% 50
40–50% 45.5% 50.0% 46
50–60% 55.6% 54.4% 57
60–70% 65.1% 70.1% 67
70–80% 75.0% 76.8% 56
80–90% 84.9% 81.1% 37
90–100% 92.6% 78.6% 14
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 Tuggeranong United vs O'Connor Knights 0-2 6% 9% -33.0 9% 14% -32.6 85% 85% -0.7
05.08.23 West Canberra Wanderers FC vs Monaro Panthers 1-3 5% 7% -32.9 7% 11% -32.3 88% 89% -1.4
06.08.23 Gungahlin United FC vs Canberra Olympic FC 1-3 53% 52% 2.8 19% 26% -27.5 28% 32% -12.7
08.08.23 Canberra Croatia vs Cooma Tigers 5-1 65% 62% 4.1 16% 22% -28.9 19% 24% -21.5
12.08.23 Cooma Tigers vs Gungahlin United FC 1-2 36% 38% -6.4 18% 25% -26.1 46% 47% -2.1
12.08.23 Monaro Panthers vs O'Connor Knights 1-2 32% 36% -10.8 20% 28% -27.2 47% 45% 4.2
12.08.23 Tuggeranong United vs Canberra Olympic FC 1-0 10% 14% -31.6 13% 19% -32.1 77% 75% 2.8
13.08.23 Canberra Croatia vs West Canberra Wanderers FC 5-2 93% 95% -2.4 4% 6% -33.6 3% 4% -33.8
19.08.23 Canberra Croatia vs Monaro Panthers 0-1 58% 56% 2.9 18% 26% -28.0 23% 27% -13.5
19.08.23 Canberra Olympic FC vs Cooma Tigers 1-0 56% 56% 0.3 18% 24% -26.9 26% 29% -10.1
19.08.23 West Canberra Wanderers FC vs Tuggeranong United 2-4 21% 23% -10.4 18% 24% -27.1 62% 62% -0.3
20.08.23 Gungahlin United FC vs O'Connor Knights 0-1 43% 44% -3.2 19% 26% -26.0 38% 39% -3.1
26.08.23 Canberra Olympic FC vs Monaro Panthers 1-1 44% 45% -3.3 20% 28% -27.0 36% 36% -1.7
26.08.23 O'Connor Knights vs West Canberra Wanderers FC 6-0 96% 99% -3.2 3% 4% -33.5 1% 2% -33.7
26.08.23 Tuggeranong United vs Cooma Tigers 1-4 15% 22% -29.0 16% 23% -31.0 69% 65% 6.4
27.08.23 Gungahlin United FC vs Canberra Croatia 2-5 47% 49% -4.3 20% 27% -26.8 34% 34% -1.1
02.09.23 Cooma Tigers vs O'Connor Knights 0-3 21% 29% -25.0 18% 25% -29.3 61% 56% 9.6
02.09.23 Monaro Panthers vs Tuggeranong United 6-2 83% 83% 0.1 10% 15% -33.7 6% 10% -33.3
03.09.23 Canberra Croatia vs Canberra Olympic FC 8-1 62% 62% 0.8 17% 24% -27.9 21% 24% -13.4
09.09.23 Canberra Olympic FC vs Canberra Croatia 0-0 20% 24% -18.4 17% 23% -27.7 63% 62% 2.7
09.09.23 O'Connor Knights vs Gungahlin United FC 2-1 51% 50% 1.9 20% 28% -28.0 29% 32% -10.0
16.09.23 Gungahlin United FC vs Canberra Croatia 2-2 36% 37% -3.9 20% 27% -26.2 45% 45% -1.6
23.09.23 O'Connor Knights vs Canberra Croatia 1-1 41% 42% -1.4 20% 27% -27.1 39% 42% -5.9
05.04.24 Monaro Panthers vs Canberra Olympic FC 3-0 56% 53% 6.2 20% 28% -29.2 24% 29% -16.9
13.04.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs Yoogali SC 7-2 66% 75% -12.9 15% 19% -22.9 20% 15% 33.6
13.04.24 Monaro Panthers vs O'Connor Knights 1-2 35% 39% -10.5 20% 27% -26.9 45% 43% 3.8
14.04.24 Canberra Croatia vs Gungahlin United FC 2-4 59% 56% 4.1 18% 24% -28.2 24% 29% -17.2
14.04.24 Tuggeranong United vs Cooma Tigers 0-3 12% 17% -28.9 12% 17% -29.9 75% 74% 1.9
20.04.24 Cooma Tigers vs Canberra Croatia 2-2 18% 23% -22.1 18% 25% -29.5 64% 62% 4.3
20.04.24 O'Connor Knights vs Tuggeranong United 2-1 95% 97% -2.4 4% 6% -32.9 1% 2% -32.8
21.04.24 Gungahlin United FC vs Canberra Olympic FC 3-2 64% 61% 4.9 16% 23% -28.7 20% 26% -21.2
21.04.24 Yoogali SC vs Monaro Panthers 0-2 4% 6% -31.7 7% 11% -31.6 89% 90% -1.7
27.04.24 Cooma Tigers vs Canberra Olympic FC 3-1 49% 49% 1.4 19% 26% -27.3 31% 35% -9.9
27.04.24 O'Connor Knights vs Yoogali SC 3-0 92% 94% -2.3 5% 8% -33.9 3% 4% -34.0
28.04.24 Gungahlin United FC vs Monaro Panthers 1-0 42% 42% -0.1 20% 27% -26.8 39% 42% -6.7
28.04.24 Tuggeranong United vs Canberra Croatia 3-2 6% 10% -34.3 9% 13% -33.6 85% 85% -0.3
04.05.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs Tuggeranong United 1-2 79% 78% 1.1 11% 16% -32.2 10% 15% -31.4
04.05.24 Monaro Panthers vs Cooma Tigers 3-1 53% 49% 7.9 19% 27% -28.6 28% 34% -17.9
05.05.24 Canberra Croatia vs O'Connor Knights 1-3 32% 36% -11.5 19% 26% -26.9 49% 48% 3.2
11.05.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs Canberra Croatia 1-4 21% 26% -18.1 17% 24% -27.9 62% 60% 2.7
11.05.24 Monaro Panthers vs Tuggeranong United 1-1 79% 76% 3.0 13% 19% -34.1 9% 13% -33.9
11.05.24 Yoogali SC vs Cooma Tigers 0-4 5% 8% -33.4 8% 11% -32.7 87% 88% -1.7
18.05.24 Cooma Tigers vs Gungahlin United FC 0-3 27% 35% -23.0 18% 26% -28.9 55% 50% 9.8
18.05.24 O'Connor Knights vs Canberra Olympic FC 2-1 79% 78% 1.7 12% 17% -32.6 9% 13% -31.3
19.05.24 Canberra Croatia vs Monaro Panthers 0-0 53% 48% 11.0 19% 27% -29.1 28% 36% -20.9
19.05.24 Tuggeranong United vs Yoogali SC 6-0 77% 76% 1.2 14% 20% -32.4 9% 13% -28.8
25.05.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs Monaro Panthers 1-3 19% 20% -7.0 17% 23% -26.9 65% 67% -3.2
25.05.24 Cooma Tigers vs O'Connor Knights 1-1 19% 26% -26.7 17% 24% -30.2 65% 61% 6.6
26.05.24 Canberra Croatia vs Yoogali SC 3-1 91% 93% -2.0 6% 9% -34.1 3% 5% -34.2
26.05.24 Tuggeranong United vs Gungahlin United FC 2-3 11% 16% -33.9 13% 19% -33.4 77% 74% 4.4
01.06.24 Cooma Tigers vs Tuggeranong United 1-1 69% 65% 6.3 15% 22% -31.7 15% 22% -29.3
01.06.24 O'Connor Knights vs Monaro Panthers 1-3 63% 57% 9.7 18% 27% -31.6 19% 26% -26.7
02.06.24 Gungahlin United FC vs Canberra Croatia 0-1 57% 56% 1.9 18% 25% -27.9 25% 29% -13.8
02.06.24 Yoogali SC vs Canberra Olympic FC 3-4 10% 14% -31.3 13% 19% -32.1 77% 76% 2.0
12.06.24 Gungahlin United FC vs O'Connor Knights 0-0 25% 31% -19.5 18% 26% -28.3 56% 53% 6.1
15.06.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs Cooma Tigers 1-4 30% 31% -4.3 18% 24% -26.2 52% 55% -4.7
15.06.24 Monaro Panthers vs Gungahlin United FC 3-0 46% 45% 1.2 20% 27% -26.9 34% 37% -7.4
16.06.24 Canberra Croatia vs Tuggeranong United 3-0 75% 72% 4.6 13% 20% -33.9 12% 17% -33.7
16.06.24 Yoogali SC vs O'Connor Knights 1-2 3% 4% -34.0 6% 8% -33.8 92% 94% -2.5
22.06.24 Cooma Tigers vs Monaro Panthers 4-0 32% 33% -3.4 20% 28% -27.1 48% 49% -2.5
22.06.24 O'Connor Knights vs Canberra Croatia 2-4 60% 53% 11.7 18% 26% -30.8 23% 31% -26.8
23.06.24 Tuggeranong United vs Canberra Olympic FC 1-0 40% 43% -8.2 19% 26% -25.8 41% 40% 2.6
29.06.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs Canberra Croatia 1-6 14% 17% -22.2 15% 21% -28.9 72% 71% 1.0
29.06.24 Monaro Panthers vs Tuggeranong United 1-1 76% 74% 3.3 13% 20% -32.8 11% 15% -31.2
30.06.24 Gungahlin United FC vs O'Connor Knights 4-2 36% 43% -18.3 19% 27% -27.6 45% 40% 12.9
30.06.24 Yoogali SC vs Cooma Tigers 0-3 4% 6% -31.6 7% 10% -31.3 89% 90% -1.7
06.07.24 Cooma Tigers vs Gungahlin United FC 0-3 32% 36% -9.2 19% 26% -26.7 49% 49% -0.0
06.07.24 O'Connor Knights vs Canberra Olympic FC 3-0 82% 81% 1.1 10% 15% -32.4 8% 12% -32.1
07.07.24 Canberra Croatia vs Monaro Panthers 2-1 60% 56% 6.7 18% 25% -29.4 22% 29% -21.5
07.07.24 Tuggeranong United vs Yoogali SC 3-0 79% 78% 1.4 12% 18% -32.8 9% 13% -31.1
10.07.24 O'Connor Knights vs Cooma Tigers 3-2 57% 51% 12.1 18% 27% -30.7 24% 32% -25.5
13.07.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs Gungahlin United FC 0-3 10% 14% -28.0 12% 17% -29.8 78% 78% 0.6
13.07.24 Monaro Panthers vs Yoogali SC 0-0 91% 93% -2.3 6% 8% -33.6 3% 5% -33.9
14.07.24 Canberra Croatia vs Cooma Tigers 3-1 62% 56% 9.5 17% 25% -31.0 21% 29% -26.9
14.07.24 Tuggeranong United vs O'Connor Knights 1-2 14% 21% -31.3 16% 23% -32.1 70% 65% 7.1
21.07.24 Gungahlin United FC vs Tuggeranong United 1-0 80% 79% 1.4 11% 17% -32.3 9% 13% -31.1
21.07.24 Yoogali SC vs Canberra Croatia 0-3 3% 4% -34.0 5% 8% -33.6 92% 95% -3.2
27.07.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs Yoogali SC 0-1 73% 68% 6.0 14% 21% -33.5 13% 20% -33.1
27.07.24 Monaro Panthers vs O'Connor Knights 2-3 34% 39% -14.0 21% 29% -27.8 45% 41% 10.3
28.07.24 Canberra Croatia vs Gungahlin United FC 2-3 49% 47% 4.4 19% 26% -27.2 33% 38% -13.2
28.07.24 Tuggeranong United vs Cooma Tigers 2-2 23% 29% -17.9 19% 26% -28.4 58% 55% 5.0
03.08.24 Cooma Tigers vs Canberra Croatia 2-3 21% 24% -14.8 16% 22% -27.0 63% 63% -0.5
03.08.24 O'Connor Knights vs Tuggeranong United 2-2 74% 71% 3.8 14% 20% -31.9 12% 17% -29.7
04.08.24 Gungahlin United FC vs Canberra Olympic FC 1-0 87% 88% -1.4 7% 10% -33.2 6% 9% -33.7
04.08.24 Yoogali SC vs Monaro Panthers 0-3 8% 12% -33.5 11% 17% -33.0 81% 79% 2.1
10.08.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs Cooma Tigers 0-1 15% 19% -21.1 14% 20% -27.9 71% 70% 0.9
10.08.24 Monaro Panthers vs Gungahlin United FC 2-2 22% 29% -23.5 19% 26% -29.6 60% 55% 8.5
10.08.24 Yoogali SC vs O'Connor Knights 1-1 3% 4% -33.1 6% 9% -32.5 91% 93% -2.4
11.08.24 Canberra Croatia vs Tuggeranong United 1-0 78% 76% 2.4 13% 19% -33.1 9% 13% -32.0
17.08.24 Cooma Tigers vs Monaro Panthers 3-0 42% 42% 0.7 20% 27% -27.2 38% 42% -7.9
17.08.24 O'Connor Knights vs Canberra Croatia 2-1 45% 43% 2.5 20% 27% -27.0 36% 39% -9.0
18.08.24 Tuggeranong United vs Canberra Olympic FC 4-1 64% 62% 2.6 17% 24% -28.9 19% 23% -17.9
21.08.24 O'Connor Knights vs Cooma Tigers 3-1 54% 47% 15.5 18% 25% -29.0 29% 38% -24.4
24.08.24 Cooma Tigers vs Yoogali SC 2-1 83% 82% 1.2 11% 16% -34.3 7% 10% -34.4
24.08.24 O'Connor Knights vs Gungahlin United FC 2-3 41% 43% -4.3 20% 28% -27.3 39% 40% -2.3
25.08.24 Canberra Croatia vs Canberra Olympic FC 3-2 87% 88% -1.3 9% 13% -33.9 5% 7% -33.7
25.08.24 Tuggeranong United vs Monaro Panthers 1-0 22% 28% -22.0 19% 26% -29.5 60% 56% 6.4
31.08.24 Canberra Olympic FC vs O'Connor Knights 4-3 9% 13% -31.3 12% 17% -31.8 79% 78% 1.4
31.08.24 Monaro Panthers vs Canberra Croatia 1-2 23% 28% -16.4 18% 25% -27.9 59% 57% 2.8
01.09.24 Gungahlin United FC vs Cooma Tigers 4-2 62% 58% 7.5 17% 24% -30.4 21% 29% -25.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 277 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

11 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Canberra Croatia 1516.96
2 Monaro Panthers 1496.22
3 Cooma Tigers 1461.98
4 Queanbeyan City FC 1323.91
5 Tuggeranong United 1303.63
6 Canberra Juventus FC 1243.18
7 Canberra Olympic FC 1236.74
8 Belconnen United 1170.58
9 O'Connor Knights 1146.87
10 Canberra White Eagles 1068.06
11 Brindabella Blues FC 932.08

Away Ratings

11 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Canberra Croatia 1492.64
2 Cooma Tigers 1487.93
3 Monaro Panthers 1463.39
4 Queanbeyan City FC 1319.08
5 Canberra Olympic FC 1224.74
6 Tuggeranong United 1195.31
7 Canberra Juventus FC 1183.73
8 O'Connor Knights 1145.45
9 Belconnen United 1119.36
10 Canberra White Eagles 1089.64
11 Brindabella Blues FC 911.46