ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 393
Avg Goals 3.50
Avg Home 1.81
Avg Away 1.69
Home Win % 44.0%
Draw % 17.3%
Away Win % 38.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 393
Avg Brier Score 0.5402
Pick Accuracy 58.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5424
Market Brier 0.5423
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 393 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.6% 8.7% 46
10–20% 16.0% 13.5% 275
20–30% 23.2% 23.5% 362
30–40% 35.4% 36.0% 125
40–50% 44.8% 46.2% 106
50–60% 55.0% 54.0% 113
60–70% 64.7% 68.4% 76
70–80% 74.1% 79.2% 53
80–90% 83.6% 77.3% 22
90–100% 90.3% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
11.08.23 Redlands United vs Brisbane City 2-2 25% 29% -15.8 21% 26% -16.6 54% 55% -2.0
13.08.23 Brisbane Olympic vs Rochedale Rovers 1-0 35% 38% -8.4 24% 28% -15.3 41% 43% -5.1
13.08.23 Brisbane Roar U23 vs Moreton Bay United 0-3 31% 32% -2.7 23% 26% -14.2 46% 51% -10.3
13.08.23 Gold Coast Knights vs Queensland Lions 1-1 60% 64% -6.0 20% 24% -16.7 20% 22% -9.0
13.08.23 Peninsula Power vs Eastern Suburbs Brisbane 6-0 74% 78% -4.0 15% 19% -20.4 10% 12% -16.5
13.08.23 Sunshine Coast FC vs Gold Coast United 3-1 27% 31% -12.2 23% 28% -16.6 49% 51% -2.2
20.08.23 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane vs Queensland Lions 1-1 6% 8% -24.5 10% 13% -21.4 84% 87% -3.9
20.08.23 Gold Coast Knights vs Brisbane Olympic 4-2 85% 88% -3.3 10% 13% -24.5 5% 7% -24.4
20.08.23 Gold Coast United vs Rochedale Rovers 0-2 58% 62% -6.7 21% 25% -15.8 21% 23% -6.1
20.08.23 Moreton Bay United vs Peninsula Power 0-1 47% 52% -9.4 23% 28% -16.1 30% 31% -3.4
20.08.23 Redlands United vs Brisbane Roar U23 3-0 48% 51% -6.5 22% 27% -15.7 30% 32% -8.4
20.08.23 Sunshine Coast FC vs Brisbane City 1-2 22% 27% -15.8 21% 25% -16.8 57% 58% -2.4
26.08.23 Brisbane City vs Gold Coast United 4-1 54% 59% -7.8 22% 26% -15.1 24% 25% -3.9
26.08.23 Brisbane Olympic vs Eastern Suburbs Brisbane 6-1 64% 67% -4.6 18% 21% -15.3 18% 21% -12.9
26.08.23 Peninsula Power vs Redlands United 3-1 53% 60% -11.6 22% 25% -13.5 26% 25% 3.0
26.08.23 Queensland Lions vs Moreton Bay United 1-1 56% 58% -3.9 21% 26% -17.4 23% 27% -12.8
26.08.23 Rochedale Rovers vs Gold Coast Knights 1-2 18% 24% -23.9 19% 24% -21.2 63% 61% 2.1
26.08.23 Sunshine Coast FC vs Brisbane Roar U23 2-2 48% 51% -7.0 22% 25% -13.7 31% 33% -7.8
01.09.23 Gold Coast United vs Peninsula Power 1-3 38% 40% -6.0 24% 29% -15.7 38% 41% -6.1
03.09.23 Brisbane City vs Queensland Lions 2-1 45% 50% -10.2 23% 27% -15.2 32% 33% -3.4
08.09.23 Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power 5-0 65% 68% -3.9 18% 22% -17.9 16% 19% -14.2
09.09.23 Moreton Bay United vs Brisbane City 2-1 32% 37% -14.9 22% 26% -15.0 47% 48% -1.9
17.09.23 Gold Coast Knights vs Moreton Bay United 1-0 67% 69% -3.5 18% 23% -18.8 15% 17% -12.8
23.02.24 Gold Coast Knights vs Wynnum Wolves 9-0 90% 94% -4.2 6% 8% -19.1 3% 4% -17.3
24.02.24 Brisbane City vs Brisbane Roar U23 1-0 78% 83% -5.1 12% 14% -14.7 9% 11% -13.1
24.02.24 Peninsula Power vs Queensland Lions 0-3 31% 36% -13.9 23% 28% -16.4 46% 47% -1.0
24.02.24 Rochedale Rovers vs Redlands United 2-2 54% 62% -13.2 21% 24% -12.9 24% 23% 7.8
24.02.24 Sunshine Coast FC vs Gold Coast United 0-4 22% 23% -5.7 22% 26% -15.9 56% 60% -6.9
25.02.24 Brisbane Olympic vs Moreton City Excelsior FC 1-1 29% 32% -11.0 23% 27% -15.7 49% 51% -3.9
01.03.24 Gold Coast United vs Gold Coast Knights 1-2 19% 21% -8.1 20% 24% -14.9 60% 65% -6.4
01.03.24 Queensland Lions vs Rochedale Rovers 3-2 60% 65% -7.2 20% 23% -14.5 20% 22% -6.1
01.03.24 Redlands United vs Brisbane Olympic 1-3 33% 34% -4.8 23% 27% -15.1 44% 49% -9.4
02.03.24 Brisbane City vs Sunshine Coast FC 3-2 71% 74% -4.1 16% 20% -17.8 12% 14% -12.5
02.03.24 Moreton City Excelsior FC vs Brisbane Roar U23 3-2 65% 70% -6.5 18% 22% -15.4 16% 17% -6.8
02.03.24 Wynnum Wolves vs Peninsula Power 2-1 12% 15% -21.8 16% 20% -20.4 72% 74% -2.7
09.03.24 Gold Coast United vs Brisbane City 3-0 37% 42% -12.9 24% 29% -16.6 39% 40% -1.4
09.03.24 Peninsula Power vs Gold Coast Knights 1-0 16% 17% -5.3 19% 22% -13.9 66% 70% -7.0
09.03.24 Redlands United vs Brisbane Roar U23 1-1 45% 49% -7.3 23% 27% -14.6 32% 34% -5.6
09.03.24 Rochedale Rovers vs Wynnum Wolves 1-4 62% 65% -4.0 19% 23% -16.2 19% 21% -11.0
09.03.24 Sunshine Coast FC vs Moreton City Excelsior FC 3-5 26% 31% -14.3 22% 27% -16.6 51% 53% -2.4
10.03.24 Brisbane Olympic vs Queensland Lions 0-2 27% 30% -11.1 22% 26% -15.7 51% 53% -4.8
15.03.24 Gold Coast Knights vs Rochedale Rovers 2-0 82% 85% -3.6 11% 13% -19.5 8% 10% -20.4
16.03.24 Peninsula Power vs Gold Coast United 3-1 48% 51% -5.6 23% 28% -16.4 28% 31% -7.7
17.03.24 Queensland Lions vs Brisbane Roar U23 1-2 77% 81% -5.9 14% 16% -15.4 10% 11% -10.4
17.03.24 Wynnum Wolves vs Brisbane Olympic 4-3 26% 31% -14.2 22% 26% -16.4 52% 53% -3.0
23.03.24 Brisbane City vs Redlands United 1-0 69% 72% -4.9 17% 20% -16.9 14% 17% -13.4
23.03.24 Rochedale Rovers vs Peninsula Power 0-2 18% 20% -11.2 20% 24% -16.2 62% 65% -4.7
24.03.24 Brisbane Olympic vs Gold Coast Knights 0-1 10% 12% -16.8 14% 17% -17.1 76% 79% -4.1
24.03.24 Brisbane Roar U23 vs Wynnum Wolves 1-1 51% 56% -9.5 22% 25% -13.8 28% 29% -3.3
05.04.24 Gold Coast Knights vs Brisbane Roar U23 4-2 87% 91% -3.8 8% 10% -23.3 5% 6% -24.6
06.04.24 Queensland Lions vs Brisbane City 6-0 46% 53% -12.9 23% 27% -14.7 31% 29% 4.0
06.04.24 Wynnum Wolves vs Sunshine Coast FC 3-2 37% 42% -12.9 22% 26% -14.6 41% 42% -2.1
13.04.24 Brisbane City vs Wynnum Wolves 2-3 65% 67% -3.2 18% 22% -17.7 18% 21% -16.6
13.04.24 Gold Coast United vs Redlands United 4-0 60% 65% -6.3 20% 24% -15.8 20% 21% -7.3
14.04.24 Brisbane Olympic vs Rochedale Rovers 2-0 54% 58% -7.6 22% 26% -15.6 25% 26% -6.4
14.04.24 Brisbane Roar U23 vs Peninsula Power 1-1 20% 24% -17.7 20% 24% -17.5 61% 62% -2.2
14.04.24 Moreton City Excelsior FC vs Queensland Lions 2-4 26% 31% -14.1 22% 27% -16.6 51% 53% -2.5
14.04.24 Sunshine Coast FC vs Gold Coast Knights 0-1 8% 10% -19.6 12% 15% -18.4 80% 83% -3.7
17.04.24 Gold Coast United vs Rochedale Rovers 2-2 67% 71% -6.7 18% 22% -16.0 15% 16% -5.8
19.04.24 Gold Coast Knights vs Brisbane City 3-1 76% 80% -4.8 14% 17% -17.5 10% 12% -14.3
20.04.24 Peninsula Power vs Sunshine Coast FC 1-2 67% 69% -3.7 17% 21% -18.1 16% 19% -16.6
20.04.24 Redlands United vs Queensland Lions 2-4 13% 16% -17.2 16% 19% -16.6 71% 75% -5.0
20.04.24 Wynnum Wolves vs Moreton City Excelsior FC 0-4 28% 31% -11.9 20% 23% -12.7 52% 56% -5.8
21.04.24 Brisbane Olympic vs Gold Coast United 0-0 32% 36% -12.4 23% 28% -15.9 45% 45% -1.5
21.04.24 Rochedale Rovers vs Brisbane Roar U23 1-5 40% 44% -10.1 24% 28% -15.0 36% 37% -1.7
23.04.24 Redlands United vs Moreton City Excelsior FC 0-1 19% 20% -5.8 19% 22% -12.5 62% 67% -7.4
24.04.24 Sunshine Coast FC vs Queensland Lions 3-1 13% 16% -17.5 15% 18% -15.6 71% 75% -4.2
27.04.24 Moreton City Excelsior FC vs Gold Coast Knights 2-3 17% 21% -18.6 19% 23% -18.5 64% 66% -2.4
28.04.24 Brisbane City vs Peninsula Power 2-4 34% 37% -9.5 23% 28% -15.8 43% 45% -5.2
28.04.24 Brisbane Roar U23 vs Brisbane Olympic 3-2 34% 38% -11.3 23% 28% -15.6 42% 43% -2.4
28.04.24 Gold Coast United vs Queensland Lions 3-2 27% 31% -13.1 23% 27% -16.5 50% 52% -3.0
28.04.24 Sunshine Coast FC vs Rochedale Rovers 0-1 50% 54% -8.2 22% 26% -15.0 28% 29% -4.8
11.05.24 Gold Coast Knights vs Redlands United 4-1 85% 87% -2.6 10% 13% -25.3 6% 8% -26.2
11.05.24 Peninsula Power vs Moreton City Excelsior FC 0-0 43% 44% -3.0 23% 27% -15.5 34% 38% -11.4
11.05.24 Wynnum Wolves vs Queensland Lions 0-7 10% 12% -16.2 14% 17% -15.8 76% 79% -4.9
12.05.24 Brisbane Olympic vs Sunshine Coast FC 0-2 56% 61% -7.2 21% 25% -15.2 23% 24% -5.2
12.05.24 Brisbane Roar U23 vs Gold Coast United 1-1 28% 34% -17.1 22% 26% -16.7 50% 50% -0.1
12.05.24 Rochedale Rovers vs Brisbane City 0-8 27% 33% -18.1 22% 26% -17.1 51% 51% 0.8
18.05.24 Brisbane City vs Brisbane Olympic 0-4 43% 48% -9.3 22% 26% -14.6 34% 36% -5.5
18.05.24 Queensland Lions vs Gold Coast Knights 1-1 34% 38% -11.2 23% 27% -14.8 44% 45% -3.7
18.05.24 Redlands United vs Peninsula Power 0-4 15% 17% -9.7 18% 21% -14.6 67% 71% -5.6
19.05.24 Moreton City Excelsior FC vs Rochedale Rovers 2-0 64% 67% -4.4 18% 22% -17.0 17% 20% -13.2
19.05.24 Sunshine Coast FC vs Brisbane Roar U23 3-0 39% 43% -10.0 23% 27% -14.6 38% 40% -4.7
24.05.24 Redlands United vs Rochedale Rovers 0-1 37% 40% -6.9 22% 26% -13.7 41% 44% -8.5
25.05.24 Moreton City Excelsior FC vs Brisbane Olympic 1-1 46% 49% -5.7 23% 27% -15.6 31% 35% -9.7
25.05.24 Queensland Lions vs Peninsula Power 3-1 56% 58% -3.8 21% 25% -16.3 23% 27% -11.9
25.05.24 Wynnum Wolves vs Gold Coast Knights 3-5 6% 8% -21.2 9% 11% -17.0 84% 88% -4.0
26.05.24 Brisbane Roar U23 vs Brisbane City 2-3 27% 30% -11.9 22% 26% -15.2 52% 54% -4.6
26.05.24 Gold Coast United vs Sunshine Coast FC 0-0 58% 61% -4.5 21% 25% -17.2 21% 24% -12.0
01.06.24 Gold Coast Knights vs Gold Coast United 5-1 71% 73% -2.7 16% 20% -19.1 13% 15% -16.9
01.06.24 Peninsula Power vs Wynnum Wolves 5-0 74% 77% -3.8 15% 18% -19.3 11% 14% -17.8
01.06.24 Rochedale Rovers vs Queensland Lions 0-4 9% 11% -19.2 13% 17% -19.2 78% 81% -4.0
02.06.24 Brisbane Olympic vs Redlands United 3-0 64% 66% -3.3 19% 24% -18.6 17% 19% -12.9
02.06.24 Brisbane Roar U23 vs Moreton City Excelsior FC 1-3 26% 29% -11.9 22% 26% -15.3 52% 55% -4.1
04.06.24 Sunshine Coast FC vs Brisbane City 2-1 29% 33% -13.0 22% 26% -15.1 49% 51% -4.0
07.06.24 Wynnum Wolves vs Rochedale Rovers 2-1 33% 35% -6.7 23% 26% -14.5 45% 49% -8.3
08.06.24 Gold Coast Knights vs Peninsula Power 3-2 61% 65% -5.0 19% 23% -16.5 20% 23% -13.2
08.06.24 Moreton City Excelsior FC vs Sunshine Coast FC 5-0 57% 60% -4.2 20% 24% -16.9 23% 26% -13.7
08.06.24 Queensland Lions vs Brisbane Olympic 3-2 66% 68% -4.1 18% 22% -17.5 16% 19% -14.2
09.06.24 Brisbane City vs Gold Coast United 1-1 39% 42% -8.0 22% 26% -13.4 39% 42% -6.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 393 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Queensland Lions 1801.36
2 Peninsula Power 1753.88
3 Moreton City Excelsior FC 1744.64
4 Gold Coast Knights 1665.48
5 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane 1641.51
6 Brisbane City 1610.69
7 Brisbane Roar U23 1561.83
8 Gold Coast United 1555.27
9 Wynnum Wolves 1544.11
10 Brisbane Olympic 1527.33
11 Rochedale Rovers 1525.34
12 Magic United FC 1456.99

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Queensland Lions 1691.61
2 Moreton City Excelsior FC 1683.45
3 Gold Coast Knights 1648.74
4 Peninsula Power 1630.58
5 Brisbane City 1630.30
6 Wynnum Wolves 1601.94
7 Rochedale Rovers 1552.44
8 Brisbane Olympic 1537.39
9 Eastern Suburbs Brisbane 1526.85
10 Gold Coast United 1464.38
11 Magic United FC 1431.69
12 Brisbane Roar U23 1431.00