ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 387
Avg Goals 3.45
Avg Home 1.78
Avg Away 1.67
Home Win % 41.6%
Draw % 20.7%
Away Win % 37.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 387
Avg Brier Score 0.5933
Pick Accuracy 51.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5970
Market Brier 0.5934
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 3
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 387 matches had at least one · staked 3.00, profit -3.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.1% 0.0% 10
10–20% 16.3% 17.2% 128
20–30% 23.3% 22.3% 461
30–40% 35.2% 34.4% 212
40–50% 44.7% 48.3% 178
50–60% 54.9% 51.4% 107
60–70% 64.9% 75.6% 41
70–80% 74.4% 65.0% 20
80–90% 82.2% 100.0% 2
90–100% 91.1% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 Adelaide City vs Campbelltown City 1-2 32% 34% -5.8 24% 28% -14.7 44% 48% -6.8
05.08.23 Adelaide Comets vs Modbury Jets 1-0 46% 52% -10.3 22% 26% -13.2 31% 32% -3.0
05.08.23 Adelaide Olympic vs White City FK Beograd 2-2 38% 42% -10.9 23% 26% -13.9 40% 42% -4.5
05.08.23 Croydon Kings vs Adelaide United U21 1-2 49% 55% -11.1 22% 25% -12.5 29% 29% -0.4
05.08.23 West Adelaide vs South Adelaide Panthers 0-1 42% 47% -9.4 23% 27% -13.9 35% 36% -3.1
11.08.23 Adelaide United U21 vs West Adelaide 3-1 49% 54% -9.7 22% 25% -12.7 29% 30% -3.1
11.08.23 Campbelltown City vs Adelaide Olympic 2-1 67% 72% -8.1 17% 19% -11.3 17% 17% -5.0
11.08.23 Croydon Kings vs Adelaide City 1-0 30% 34% -10.4 22% 26% -14.6 47% 50% -5.7
11.08.23 Modbury Jets vs MetroStars 0-1 14% 16% -10.2 16% 18% -12.2 70% 75% -6.6
11.08.23 South Adelaide Panthers vs Adelaide Comets 1-2 29% 32% -10.8 22% 25% -13.7 50% 53% -5.7
11.08.23 White City FK Beograd vs Sturt Lions 3-1 52% 58% -9.8 21% 24% -13.0 27% 28% -4.0
19.08.23 Adelaide City vs Modbury Jets 1-2 58% 64% -9.7 20% 23% -12.1 22% 22% -0.3
19.08.23 Adelaide United U21 vs Adelaide Comets 2-2 36% 40% -10.6 24% 28% -15.1 41% 42% -3.7
25.08.23 Adelaide United U21 vs Campbelltown City 2-1 26% 29% -7.6 22% 26% -14.2 52% 56% -7.1
25.08.23 Modbury Jets vs MetroStars 2-3 14% 15% -8.5 17% 19% -13.3 70% 75% -6.3
02.09.23 Campbelltown City vs Adelaide United U21 1-3 57% 64% -10.6 20% 23% -11.7 23% 22% 2.0
02.09.23 MetroStars vs Modbury Jets 0-3 76% 83% -8.5 13% 14% -7.5 11% 10% 2.9
08.09.23 Modbury Jets vs Adelaide United U21 2-7 30% 30% -0.8 22% 26% -12.9 48% 53% -11.0
23.02.24 Modbury Jets vs Para Hills Knights 2-3 55% 58% -6.7 21% 25% -14.8 24% 26% -8.1
24.02.24 Adelaide City vs South Adelaide Panthers 4-0 65% 71% -9.0 18% 21% -12.2 17% 17% 0.1
24.02.24 Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide Olympic 2-0 55% 62% -11.0 21% 24% -12.2 24% 24% 1.4
24.02.24 Adelaide Raiders vs Croydon Kings 4-1 37% 42% -10.7 23% 27% -14.1 40% 42% -4.3
24.02.24 Adelaide United U21 vs Campbelltown City 0-5 27% 28% -3.6 22% 26% -13.6 51% 56% -9.1
25.02.24 White City FK Beograd vs MetroStars 0-3 21% 25% -15.3 20% 24% -16.0 59% 61% -3.0
01.03.24 Para Hills Knights vs Adelaide City 2-3 15% 16% -5.7 18% 21% -13.8 67% 72% -7.2
01.03.24 South Adelaide Panthers vs Adelaide Comets 0-5 20% 21% -3.6 20% 23% -12.9 60% 65% -8.5
02.03.24 Adelaide Olympic vs White City FK Beograd 1-5 34% 38% -11.5 24% 28% -15.2 42% 43% -2.4
02.03.24 Adelaide United U21 vs Modbury Jets 1-5 43% 45% -6.2 22% 26% -13.2 35% 38% -8.7
02.03.24 Croydon Kings vs Campbelltown City 1-0 20% 20% 0.8 20% 22% -11.3 60% 67% -10.4
02.03.24 MetroStars vs Adelaide Raiders 4-3 70% 76% -8.6 16% 18% -11.2 14% 14% -1.6
07.03.24 Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide City 1-0 40% 44% -9.7 24% 29% -15.2 36% 36% -2.1
08.03.24 Campbelltown City vs MetroStars 2-0 37% 42% -10.3 23% 27% -14.2 39% 41% -3.4
08.03.24 Modbury Jets vs Croydon Kings 3-2 45% 49% -8.3 23% 26% -13.8 33% 34% -5.6
08.03.24 Para Hills Knights vs Adelaide United U21 2-1 39% 47% -15.9 22% 26% -13.2 39% 37% 4.3
08.03.24 White City FK Beograd vs South Adelaide Panthers 2-3 56% 62% -9.5 20% 23% -11.8 24% 25% -3.6
22.03.24 Adelaide City vs White City FK Beograd 0-1 59% 67% -12.4 21% 24% -13.0 20% 19% 7.5
22.03.24 Adelaide Comets vs Para Hills Knights 3-1 71% 80% -11.6 16% 17% -7.7 13% 11% 15.7
22.03.24 MetroStars vs Modbury Jets 1-1 60% 66% -9.0 19% 22% -12.3 21% 22% -5.2
23.03.24 Adelaide Olympic vs Campbelltown City 0-2 18% 19% -7.2 20% 23% -14.5 63% 67% -6.1
23.03.24 Croydon Kings vs Adelaide United U21 2-4 43% 50% -13.7 22% 26% -13.2 35% 34% 0.3
28.03.24 Adelaide Raiders vs Adelaide City 2-0 26% 29% -8.1 22% 26% -14.3 52% 56% -6.8
28.03.24 Adelaide United U21 vs MetroStars 0-4 19% 22% -11.3 19% 22% -14.1 62% 65% -5.7
30.03.24 Campbelltown City vs South Adelaide Panthers 1-1 75% 81% -8.1 14% 15% -9.5 11% 11% -0.9
30.03.24 Para Hills Knights vs Croydon Kings 0-4 29% 32% -10.5 23% 28% -16.0 48% 50% -4.4
30.03.24 White City FK Beograd vs Adelaide Comets 1-0 23% 24% -6.0 22% 26% -14.8 55% 60% -7.2
05.04.24 Adelaide City vs Campbelltown City 1-3 36% 39% -9.2 26% 31% -17.1 39% 40% -2.8
05.04.24 MetroStars vs Croydon Kings 4-1 68% 75% -9.1 17% 19% -11.3 15% 15% -0.8
06.04.24 Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide Raiders 2-3 58% 63% -8.9 21% 24% -13.9 22% 23% -4.0
06.04.24 Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide United U21 2-3 31% 34% -9.8 22% 26% -13.6 47% 50% -5.4
06.04.24 White City FK Beograd vs Para Hills Knights 0-3 55% 62% -11.4 21% 24% -13.0 24% 24% 1.3
19.04.24 Croydon Kings vs Adelaide Olympic 2-2 49% 53% -8.3 22% 26% -13.6 29% 30% -4.9
19.04.24 Modbury Jets vs Adelaide City 2-0 37% 42% -10.9 24% 28% -15.2 39% 41% -3.7
19.04.24 Para Hills Knights vs MetroStars 0-5 13% 15% -12.4 16% 19% -14.8 70% 75% -5.8
20.04.24 Adelaide Raiders vs White City FK Beograd 3-2 43% 48% -9.2 24% 28% -15.2 33% 35% -4.7
20.04.24 Campbelltown City vs Adelaide Comets 0-4 46% 51% -9.4 23% 28% -15.5 30% 31% -3.7
21.04.24 Adelaide United U21 vs South Adelaide Panthers 2-1 69% 79% -12.0 15% 15% -2.5 16% 14% 9.8
25.04.24 White City FK Beograd vs Campbelltown City 2-2 22% 24% -9.7 20% 24% -14.3 58% 62% -5.9
26.04.24 Adelaide City vs Adelaide United U21 2-3 44% 49% -10.2 23% 27% -14.3 33% 34% -2.6
26.04.24 South Adelaide Panthers vs Croydon Kings 2-2 28% 31% -10.1 22% 26% -14.4 50% 53% -6.1
27.04.24 Adelaide Comets vs Modbury Jets 1-1 46% 50% -7.5 23% 28% -15.5 30% 32% -6.1
27.04.24 Adelaide Olympic vs MetroStars 4-3 10% 10% -2.2 13% 15% -9.3 77% 83% -8.2
27.04.24 Adelaide Raiders vs Para Hills Knights 2-2 55% 62% -10.6 21% 24% -12.3 24% 24% 0.6
03.05.24 Campbelltown City vs Adelaide Raiders 2-0 57% 61% -7.5 21% 24% -14.4 22% 24% -6.0
04.05.24 Adelaide United U21 vs Adelaide Comets 1-1 32% 35% -7.9 23% 27% -14.4 45% 48% -6.0
04.05.24 Croydon Kings vs Adelaide City 1-0 33% 37% -10.1 24% 29% -15.9 43% 44% -4.0
04.05.24 MetroStars vs South Adelaide Panthers 2-0 83% 90% -8.4 10% 11% -4.5 7% 7% 3.5
04.05.24 Modbury Jets vs White City FK Beograd 2-1 55% 62% -10.4 21% 24% -12.9 24% 24% -1.9
04.05.24 Para Hills Knights vs Adelaide Olympic 0-0 39% 43% -9.3 24% 28% -14.8 37% 38% -4.1
10.05.24 Adelaide City vs MetroStars 2-2 21% 22% -5.5 20% 23% -12.8 59% 64% -7.6
11.05.24 Adelaide Comets vs Croydon Kings 0-0 55% 60% -8.2 21% 25% -14.4 23% 24% -4.4
11.05.24 Campbelltown City vs Para Hills Knights 2-2 70% 77% -8.4 17% 19% -12.9 13% 13% 0.4
11.05.24 White City FK Beograd vs Adelaide United U21 2-2 31% 35% -10.1 22% 26% -13.4 46% 49% -4.7
17.05.24 Modbury Jets vs Campbelltown City 0-1 33% 36% -8.0 24% 28% -14.9 43% 45% -5.6
17.05.24 Para Hills Knights vs South Adelaide Panthers 3-0 47% 52% -9.9 23% 27% -14.4 30% 31% -1.9
18.05.24 Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide City 1-6 27% 29% -7.2 22% 26% -14.1 51% 56% -7.4
18.05.24 Adelaide United U21 vs Adelaide Raiders 0-2 43% 47% -7.2 22% 26% -13.4 35% 38% -8.3
18.05.24 Croydon Kings vs White City FK Beograd 2-3 43% 48% -9.1 23% 27% -14.3 34% 35% -4.3
18.05.24 MetroStars vs Adelaide Comets 2-2 50% 54% -7.1 22% 26% -14.9 27% 29% -6.9
24.05.24 South Adelaide Panthers vs Adelaide City 1-3 15% 15% -2.4 17% 19% -10.8 68% 75% -8.9
25.05.24 Adelaide Olympic vs Adelaide Comets 0-2 19% 20% -3.8 20% 23% -13.4 61% 66% -8.3
25.05.24 Campbelltown City vs Adelaide United U21 2-4 56% 62% -10.4 21% 24% -12.8 24% 24% -0.8
25.05.24 Croydon Kings vs Adelaide Raiders 2-1 39% 42% -7.6 23% 27% -13.9 38% 41% -6.8
25.05.24 MetroStars vs White City FK Beograd 2-1 73% 79% -8.5 15% 17% -10.4 12% 12% -0.6
25.05.24 Para Hills Knights vs Modbury Jets 2-0 25% 28% -11.5 21% 25% -14.9 54% 57% -5.2
01.06.24 Adelaide City vs Para Hills Knights 1-0 59% 65% -8.8 21% 24% -13.8 21% 21% -2.0
01.06.24 Adelaide Comets vs South Adelaide Panthers 6-1 74% 81% -7.6 14% 16% -11.4 11% 12% -3.8
01.06.24 Adelaide Raiders vs MetroStars 0-0 20% 21% -6.3 20% 23% -13.1 61% 65% -7.4
01.06.24 Campbelltown City vs Croydon Kings 1-1 52% 56% -7.4 22% 26% -14.5 26% 28% -6.3
01.06.24 Modbury Jets vs Adelaide United U21 4-4 47% 53% -10.9 22% 24% -11.7 32% 32% -2.0
01.06.24 White City FK Beograd vs Adelaide Olympic 4-0 45% 50% -9.5 23% 26% -14.1 32% 34% -5.1
07.06.24 MetroStars vs Campbelltown City 3-3 52% 58% -9.2 22% 26% -14.2 26% 26% -3.1
07.06.24 South Adelaide Panthers vs White City FK Beograd 1-1 22% 24% -5.9 21% 24% -13.5 57% 62% -8.8
08.06.24 Adelaide City vs Adelaide Comets 2-1 35% 38% -9.0 24% 29% -15.9 41% 43% -5.7
08.06.24 Croydon Kings vs Modbury Jets 0-4 39% 43% -10.3 23% 27% -14.2 38% 39% -3.5
09.06.24 Adelaide United U21 vs Para Hills Knights 4-4 44% 47% -6.0 22% 26% -14.6 34% 38% -10.4
14.06.24 Modbury Jets vs MetroStars 1-1 21% 23% -7.8 20% 23% -13.5 59% 64% -7.3
15.06.24 Adelaide United U21 vs Croydon Kings 3-4 35% 37% -6.3 22% 26% -13.3 43% 48% -9.5
15.06.24 Campbelltown City vs Adelaide Olympic 3-2 61% 67% -8.0 19% 22% -12.8 20% 21% -5.4
15.06.24 Para Hills Knights vs Adelaide Comets 2-2 23% 24% -6.8 22% 26% -15.3 56% 60% -7.8
15.06.24 White City FK Beograd vs Adelaide City 0-1 26% 27% -5.4 22% 26% -14.1 52% 57% -8.2
Showing the 100 most recent of 387 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 West Torrens Birkalla 1704.05
2 Adelaide City 1688.54
3 MetroStars 1669.23
4 Playford City Patriots 1529.79
5 Croydon Kings 1528.24
6 Sturt Lions 1493.58
7 White City FK Beograd 1477.33
8 Campbelltown City 1467.04
9 Adelaide United U21 1403.78
10 Adelaide Comets 1398.19
11 West Adelaide 1359.86
12 Para Hills Knights 1109.14

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 MetroStars 1689.87
2 Adelaide City 1635.91
3 West Torrens Birkalla 1560.65
4 Croydon Kings 1515.15
5 White City FK Beograd 1491.53
6 Playford City Patriots 1489.70
7 Sturt Lions 1465.02
8 Campbelltown City 1440.52
9 Adelaide Comets 1366.36
10 West Adelaide 1336.18
11 Adelaide United U21 1242.41
12 Para Hills Knights 1077.28