ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 254
Avg Goals 4.16
Avg Home 2.04
Avg Away 2.11
Home Win % 45.3%
Draw % 13.4%
Away Win % 41.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 254
Avg Brier Score 0.4027
Pick Accuracy 72.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4153
Market Brier 0.4039
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 16
Value Bet Hit Rate 56.2%
ROI (flat stake) 9.4%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 68.8% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 16 of 254 matches had at least one · staked 16.00, profit 1.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 5 40.0% 5.00 -0.40 -8.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 11 63.6% 11.00 1.90 17.3%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 5.3% 5.7% 209
10–20% 15.1% 15.2% 197
20–30% 22.7% 27.0% 74
30–40% 34.7% 31.0% 29
40–50% 44.7% 51.7% 29
50–60% 55.6% 44.0% 25
60–70% 64.9% 66.0% 47
70–80% 74.9% 68.9% 45
80–90% 85.5% 86.9% 61
90–100% 93.6% 91.3% 46
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.08.23 Clarence Zebras FC vs South Hobart 1-6 14% 21% -34.0 15% 22% -31.5 71% 67% 6.3
05.08.23 Kingborough Lions vs Riverside Olympic 5-3 89% 90% -1.7 7% 11% -33.8 4% 6% -34.6
05.08.23 Launceston City vs Glenorchy Knights 2-1 14% 20% -30.8 16% 23% -28.7 70% 67% 4.9
12.08.23 Glenorchy Knights vs Riverside Olympic 3-0 87% 88% -0.7 8% 12% -34.4 5% 8% -34.8
12.08.23 Launceston City vs Devonport City Strikers 0-1 10% 16% -34.6 11% 17% -32.6 78% 76% 3.4
12.08.23 South Hobart vs Launceston United 7-0 96% 99% -2.7 3% 4% -32.9 1% 2% -32.9
13.08.23 Clarence Zebras FC vs Kingborough Lions 2-5 22% 29% -23.9 18% 24% -23.2 59% 57% 3.8
18.08.23 Glenorchy Knights vs South Hobart 1-1 28% 32% -11.8 22% 27% -20.3 50% 50% 0.0
19.08.23 Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City 2-0 69% 67% 3.8 16% 21% -25.6 15% 21% -28.1
19.08.23 Launceston United vs Clarence Zebras FC 1-2 5% 8% -34.4 6% 10% -33.4 88% 89% -1.0
19.08.23 Riverside Olympic vs Devonport City Strikers 0-6 3% 5% -34.4 6% 9% -34.3 91% 93% -2.0
23.08.23 Launceston United vs Devonport City Strikers 0-5 3% 4% -34.0 3% 5% -34.1 94% 97% -3.1
25.08.23 Kingborough Lions vs Glenorchy Knights 2-0 34% 38% -10.9 21% 26% -19.5 45% 45% -2.0
26.08.23 Devonport City Strikers vs South Hobart 2-0 56% 60% -5.1 20% 24% -18.9 24% 26% -7.4
26.08.23 Launceston City vs Clarence Zebras FC 0-3 49% 52% -6.1 20% 25% -18.5 31% 33% -7.1
26.08.23 Launceston United vs Riverside Olympic 1-1 19% 26% -29.5 17% 24% -26.9 64% 60% 7.6
30.08.23 Riverside Olympic vs Launceston City 1-0 14% 21% -34.2 14% 21% -31.6 72% 68% 5.7
01.09.23 Glenorchy Knights vs Clarence Zebras FC 4-0 79% 78% 1.6 12% 17% -30.6 9% 14% -33.2
02.09.23 Kingborough Lions vs Devonport City Strikers 4-3 14% 21% -33.2 15% 22% -30.6 71% 67% 6.0
02.09.23 Launceston United vs Launceston City 2-2 7% 10% -35.2 10% 16% -34.7 83% 82% 1.1
02.09.23 Riverside Olympic vs South Hobart 1-6 2% 3% -34.3 5% 7% -33.9 93% 96% -3.0
09.09.23 Clarence Zebras FC vs Riverside Olympic 5-2 81% 81% 0.6 10% 15% -30.6 9% 13% -33.6
09.09.23 Glenorchy Knights vs Devonport City Strikers 0-2 19% 26% -28.6 18% 24% -26.4 64% 60% 5.7
09.09.23 South Hobart vs Launceston City 1-1 79% 78% 1.2 12% 17% -31.7 9% 14% -34.1
16.09.23 Devonport City Strikers vs Kingborough Lions 2-1 72% 68% 5.5 16% 23% -31.4 13% 19% -33.6
16.09.23 South Hobart vs Glenorchy Knights 2-0 50% 45% 9.0 22% 28% -22.4 29% 36% -20.6
23.09.23 Devonport City Strikers vs South Hobart 0-2 62% 60% 3.5 19% 26% -24.7 19% 25% -23.7
15.03.24 Riverside Olympic vs Launceston City 1-1 18% 27% -33.6 17% 25% -31.0 65% 57% 13.4
16.03.24 Devonport City Strikers vs Clarence Zebras FC 3-0 89% 91% -2.0 7% 11% -33.0 4% 6% -34.4
16.03.24 Kingborough Lions vs South Hobart 1-3 32% 40% -19.3 20% 26% -20.5 47% 44% 6.5
16.03.24 Launceston United vs Glenorchy Knights 0-9 2% 3% -34.0 5% 8% -34.0 93% 95% -2.6
23.03.24 Kingborough Lions vs Riverside Olympic 8-1 84% 84% 0.1 9% 13% -33.5 7% 11% -35.0
23.03.24 Launceston City vs Glenorchy Knights 0-4 6% 9% -33.9 8% 12% -32.1 86% 86% -0.5
23.03.24 Launceston United vs Devonport City Strikers 4-6 1% 2% -33.2 3% 4% -33.2 96% 99% -2.9
23.03.24 South Hobart vs Clarence Zebras FC 3-1 87% 88% -1.8 8% 11% -29.1 5% 8% -32.3
06.04.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Kingborough Lions 2-6 12% 18% -33.0 14% 20% -30.2 74% 71% 4.1
06.04.24 Devonport City Strikers vs Launceston City 0-0 88% 89% -1.3 7% 11% -33.7 5% 7% -34.6
06.04.24 Glenorchy Knights vs Riverside Olympic 8-1 93% 96% -2.9 4% 6% -33.9 3% 4% -34.2
13.04.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Launceston United 6-1 83% 83% 0.3 10% 14% -31.5 7% 11% -33.9
13.04.24 Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City 2-1 84% 84% -0.2 10% 14% -32.7 7% 10% -34.5
13.04.24 South Hobart vs Glenorchy Knights 1-1 31% 36% -15.6 22% 28% -21.6 48% 47% 2.2
19.04.24 Glenorchy Knights vs Kingborough Lions 2-2 61% 57% 7.0 19% 25% -25.6 20% 28% -27.2
19.04.24 Riverside Olympic vs Launceston United 4-1 62% 61% 2.1 18% 23% -22.2 20% 26% -22.5
20.04.24 Devonport City Strikers vs South Hobart 1-1 53% 53% 0.7 21% 27% -21.5 26% 30% -15.0
20.04.24 Launceston City vs Clarence Zebras FC 2-1 35% 42% -15.5 22% 28% -20.8 43% 41% 4.8
04.05.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Glenorchy Knights 1-2 5% 7% -34.2 7% 11% -33.3 88% 88% -0.9
04.05.24 Kingborough Lions vs Devonport City Strikers 0-0 26% 34% -24.7 20% 26% -23.9 54% 50% 8.9
04.05.24 South Hobart vs Riverside Olympic 5-1 96% 98% -2.5 3% 4% -32.8 1% 2% -32.8
11.05.24 Devonport City Strikers vs Glenorchy Knights 1-1 43% 43% -1.7 23% 29% -20.9 34% 37% -8.2
11.05.24 Launceston City vs South Hobart 1-2 12% 19% -35.3 14% 22% -34.3 73% 68% 7.9
11.05.24 Riverside Olympic vs Clarence Zebras FC 1-2 25% 36% -30.7 18% 24% -26.6 57% 50% 14.7
24.05.24 Riverside Olympic vs Launceston City 0-1 11% 17% -33.9 13% 19% -31.4 75% 72% 4.1
25.05.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Devonport City Strikers 0-4 6% 9% -34.9 9% 14% -34.3 85% 85% 0.3
25.05.24 South Hobart vs Kingborough Lions 3-3 51% 55% -6.5 20% 25% -18.6 29% 30% -5.7
01.06.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs South Hobart 0-1 9% 13% -35.3 11% 17% -34.3 80% 79% 2.1
01.06.24 Launceston City vs Glenorchy Knights 1-1 6% 9% -34.7 9% 13% -33.3 85% 85% -0.3
01.06.24 Riverside Olympic vs Kingborough Lions 4-3 6% 9% -35.0 7% 11% -34.5 87% 88% -1.2
15.06.24 Devonport City Strikers vs Launceston City 4-1 77% 74% 4.7 13% 20% -33.3 10% 15% -34.7
15.06.24 Glenorchy Knights vs Riverside Olympic 7-1 89% 91% -1.7 7% 10% -34.5 4% 6% -34.7
15.06.24 Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras FC 4-3 80% 79% 1.4 11% 17% -31.8 9% 13% -34.1
22.06.24 Devonport City Strikers vs Riverside Olympic 2-0 93% 96% -3.1 5% 7% -34.2 2% 3% -34.2
22.06.24 Launceston City vs Kingborough Lions 1-3 19% 27% -29.1 18% 25% -27.0 63% 58% 8.2
22.06.24 Launceston United vs Clarence Zebras FC 1-3 9% 14% -33.7 11% 15% -31.2 80% 79% 1.9
23.06.24 South Hobart vs Glenorchy Knights 3-2 35% 38% -6.2 22% 28% -19.9 42% 44% -4.7
29.06.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Launceston City 1-1 25% 31% -17.3 20% 26% -21.3 54% 53% 1.7
29.06.24 Kingborough Lions vs Glenorchy Knights 3-7 24% 30% -21.3 19% 25% -22.4 57% 55% 3.9
30.06.24 South Hobart vs Devonport City Strikers 2-2 32% 38% -16.3 23% 29% -21.8 45% 42% 7.5
05.07.24 Glenorchy Knights vs Clarence Zebras FC 5-2 92% 93% -1.9 6% 9% -33.5 3% 4% -34.0
05.07.24 Launceston City vs Launceston United 4-0 89% 91% -1.8 7% 10% -33.8 4% 6% -34.5
06.07.24 Devonport City Strikers vs Kingborough Lions 1-2 69% 67% 3.2 16% 22% -25.6 15% 20% -27.1
06.07.24 Riverside Olympic vs South Hobart 2-2 3% 4% -34.0 5% 8% -33.9 92% 94% -2.3
13.07.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Riverside Olympic 1-2 60% 58% 4.5 18% 23% -22.6 22% 29% -24.1
13.07.24 Glenorchy Knights vs Devonport City Strikers 4-0 45% 45% -1.8 22% 28% -20.0 33% 36% -8.9
13.07.24 Launceston City vs South Hobart 4-2 12% 18% -34.4 15% 22% -32.4 73% 69% 5.2
19.07.24 Launceston United vs Riverside Olympic 0-5 4% 6% -32.1 8% 11% -29.6 88% 90% -2.5
26.07.24 Launceston City vs Riverside Olympic 2-1 70% 65% 7.9 15% 22% -31.8 16% 24% -34.6
27.07.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Devonport City Strikers 0-6 6% 9% -34.9 9% 14% -34.5 85% 85% 0.3
27.07.24 Kingborough Lions vs South Hobart 1-4 22% 31% -28.1 17% 23% -24.6 60% 55% 9.4
03.08.24 Glenorchy Knights vs Launceston City 5-2 82% 82% 0.6 10% 15% -32.3 7% 11% -34.1
03.08.24 Riverside Olympic vs Kingborough Lions 0-4 14% 21% -33.6 13% 19% -30.5 73% 68% 6.3
04.08.24 South Hobart vs Clarence Zebras FC 6-1 89% 90% -1.4 7% 10% -33.5 5% 7% -34.5
09.08.24 Kingborough Lions vs Clarence Zebras FC 3-0 81% 81% -0.6 10% 14% -25.9 9% 13% -30.2
10.08.24 Launceston City vs Devonport City Strikers 0-2 12% 18% -34.3 14% 20% -32.1 74% 71% 5.0
10.08.24 Riverside Olympic vs Glenorchy Knights 0-4 2% 3% -33.9 5% 7% -33.7 93% 95% -2.5
16.08.24 Glenorchy Knights vs South Hobart 1-3 54% 55% -0.9 20% 26% -20.4 25% 29% -13.5
17.08.24 Devonport City Strikers vs Riverside Olympic 3-0 89% 91% -1.7 6% 9% -34.4 5% 7% -34.6
17.08.24 Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City 1-2 55% 58% -5.2 20% 24% -18.4 25% 27% -6.5
17.08.24 Launceston United vs Clarence Zebras FC 3-1 11% 17% -34.5 13% 19% -32.4 76% 73% 4.4
23.08.24 Glenorchy Knights vs Kingborough Lions 4-2 69% 67% 3.6 15% 21% -25.8 16% 22% -28.7
23.08.24 Riverside Olympic vs Launceston United 2-0 80% 78% 2.3 11% 17% -33.4 9% 14% -35.0
24.08.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Launceston City 2-2 15% 22% -33.0 16% 23% -30.4 69% 64% 8.4
24.08.24 South Hobart vs Devonport City Strikers 1-2 35% 39% -11.5 23% 29% -20.9 43% 43% 0.3
30.08.24 Launceston City vs Launceston United 3-1 94% 97% -3.3 4% 6% -34.0 2% 3% -34.2
31.08.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Glenorchy Knights 1-3 3% 4% -34.5 5% 8% -34.2 92% 95% -3.0
31.08.24 Devonport City Strikers vs Kingborough Lions 4-1 73% 71% 2.9 15% 21% -28.3 12% 17% -30.5
31.08.24 South Hobart vs Riverside Olympic 1-0 92% 95% -3.0 5% 8% -34.2 3% 4% -34.5
07.09.24 Clarence Zebras FC vs Riverside Olympic 0-1 34% 36% -6.2 20% 24% -17.4 46% 49% -6.2
07.09.24 Glenorchy Knights vs Devonport City Strikers 0-0 51% 51% 0.1 21% 26% -20.5 28% 32% -13.9
07.09.24 South Hobart vs Launceston City 2-1 70% 66% 5.9 16% 22% -29.7 15% 22% -32.5
14.03.25 Glenorchy Knights vs Clarence Zebras FC 4-1 91% 93% -2.5 6% 9% -34.3 3% 5% -34.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 254 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 South Hobart 1695.64
2 Devonport City Strikers 1631.42
3 Kingborough Lions 1593.64
4 Launceston City 1436.36
5 Clarence Zebras FC 1361.20
6 Riverside Olympic 1355.04
7 Glenorchy Knights 1348.59
8 South East United 1105.60
9 Launceston United 1091.43
10 Ulverstone 1018.83

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 South Hobart 1660.10
2 Kingborough Lions 1598.96
3 Devonport City Strikers 1575.22
4 Launceston City 1371.32
5 Riverside Olympic 1336.71
6 Clarence Zebras FC 1328.74
7 Glenorchy Knights 1240.88
8 South East United 1139.25
9 Ulverstone 1031.99
10 Launceston United 1028.83