ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 527
Avg Goals 3.19
Avg Home 1.72
Avg Away 1.47
Home Win % 43.3%
Draw % 19.5%
Away Win % 37.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 527
Avg Brier Score 0.5567
Pick Accuracy 59.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5568
Market Brier 0.5539
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 42
Value Bet Hit Rate 14.3%
ROI (flat stake) 18.4%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 39 of 527 matches had at least one · staked 42.00, profit 7.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 24 20.8% 24.00 17.25 71.9%
draw 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
away 15 6.7% 15.00 -6.50 -43.3%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.9% 0.0% 12
10–20% 16.1% 12.3% 227
20–30% 24.8% 21.7% 654
30–40% 35.5% 32.5% 252
40–50% 44.8% 55.5% 173
50–60% 54.7% 62.2% 135
60–70% 64.1% 69.4% 85
70–80% 73.7% 81.6% 38
80–90% 82.2% 100.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
08.08.23 North Geelong Warriors vs Oakleigh Cannons 2-4 11% 11% 2.8 16% 17% -1.5 72% 81% -10.5
12.08.23 Altona Magic vs Bentleigh Greens 1-0 45% 52% -12.4 25% 26% -6.6 30% 31% -3.8
12.08.23 Avondale Heights vs South Melbourne 2-1 58% 65% -10.7 23% 24% -7.0 20% 20% -1.4
12.08.23 Hume City vs Port Melbourne Sharks 1-1 29% 29% -2.4 25% 28% -8.6 46% 53% -13.7
12.08.23 Moreland City vs St. Albans Saints 0-1 43% 48% -9.4 25% 28% -8.2 31% 34% -7.5
13.08.23 Green Gully SC vs Heidelberg United 1-2 57% 66% -13.6 23% 24% -5.3 21% 20% 3.1
13.08.23 Melbourne Knights vs Dandenong Thunder 2-1 47% 51% -9.3 25% 28% -9.1 28% 31% -8.2
16.08.23 Heidelberg United vs South Melbourne 2-1 24% 24% -2.1 24% 26% -6.8 52% 60% -12.3
19.08.23 Avondale Heights vs Bentleigh Greens 2-1 69% 76% -10.0 18% 19% -5.9 13% 14% -3.1
19.08.23 Dandenong Thunder vs Hume City 3-4 49% 55% -11.3 24% 26% -7.0 27% 29% -6.9
19.08.23 Heidelberg United vs Melbourne Knights 3-2 36% 39% -8.9 25% 27% -7.3 40% 44% -11.0
19.08.23 North Geelong Warriors vs South Melbourne 0-2 16% 16% -0.3 19% 20% -3.0 65% 73% -11.4
19.08.23 Oakleigh Cannons vs Moreland City 5-0 79% 88% -9.6 13% 12% 1.8 8% 7% 7.9
19.08.23 Port Melbourne Sharks vs Altona Magic 4-0 51% 57% -10.2 24% 26% -7.7 25% 27% -7.5
19.08.23 St. Albans Saints vs Green Gully SC 0-2 23% 25% -8.7 22% 24% -6.5 55% 61% -10.5
25.08.23 Oakleigh Cannons vs Altona Magic 5-0 72% 81% -11.9 16% 16% 2.0 12% 11% 8.8
01.09.23 South Melbourne vs Oakleigh Cannons 2-1 25% 24% 3.2 24% 26% -6.0 51% 60% -14.8
02.09.23 Avondale Heights vs Melbourne Knights 1-0 64% 71% -10.5 20% 21% -5.7 16% 17% -2.7
10.09.23 Avondale Heights vs South Melbourne 4-0 55% 60% -8.4 23% 26% -9.2 22% 24% -9.0
08.02.24 South Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights 1-0 40% 42% -4.9 25% 28% -9.0 35% 41% -14.0
09.02.24 Green Gully SC vs Moreland City 1-0 70% 80% -12.2 17% 17% 2.2 13% 11% 11.3
09.02.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs Manningham United Blues 3-0 83% 88% -6.2 10% 11% -9.8 7% 8% -13.6
10.02.24 Altona Magic vs Heidelberg United 0-1 28% 29% -0.9 25% 27% -7.2 47% 55% -14.1
10.02.24 Avondale Heights vs Dandenong City 4-3 77% 83% -7.4 14% 15% -6.5 9% 10% -5.6
10.02.24 Dandenong Thunder vs Hume City 1-2 38% 40% -5.4 26% 29% -9.5 36% 42% -12.9
10.02.24 Port Melbourne Sharks vs St. Albans Saints 0-0 54% 57% -5.5 24% 27% -12.0 22% 26% -13.3
16.02.24 Dandenong City vs Altona Magic 3-2 50% 58% -13.9 24% 26% -7.4 26% 26% -0.2
16.02.24 Heidelberg United vs Oakleigh Cannons 1-1 23% 22% 2.2 23% 24% -4.9 54% 62% -13.5
17.02.24 Hume City vs Green Gully SC 2-0 38% 43% -11.5 26% 29% -9.0 36% 38% -5.9
17.02.24 Manningham United Blues vs Dandenong Thunder 2-1 30% 31% -4.4 26% 28% -8.2 45% 51% -11.6
17.02.24 Moreland City vs South Melbourne 0-1 15% 13% 15.4 20% 20% -0.2 65% 75% -14.0
18.02.24 St. Albans Saints vs Avondale Heights 1-2 12% 10% 16.8 18% 17% 1.4 70% 81% -12.7
23.02.24 Green Gully SC vs Manningham United Blues 4-1 62% 68% -9.5 21% 23% -7.1 17% 17% -2.7
23.02.24 Melbourne Knights vs Avondale Heights 3-3 25% 25% 0.6 24% 26% -7.0 50% 58% -13.8
24.02.24 Dandenong Thunder vs Heidelberg United 0-2 29% 31% -5.9 25% 28% -8.5 46% 51% -11.0
25.02.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs Altona Magic 3-0 79% 88% -10.3 12% 11% 8.7 8% 7% 15.1
25.02.24 St. Albans Saints vs Dandenong City 1-3 35% 37% -6.1 26% 28% -7.8 40% 44% -10.8
26.02.24 South Melbourne vs Hume City 1-0 49% 53% -7.5 25% 28% -10.0 26% 29% -9.7
01.03.24 Dandenong City vs Oakleigh Cannons 1-1 15% 14% 7.6 19% 19% 0.2 66% 75% -12.8
01.03.24 Heidelberg United vs Green Gully SC 3-0 39% 43% -8.2 27% 31% -11.4 34% 37% -9.1
01.03.24 Moreland City vs Avondale Heights 0-1 11% 10% 9.9 16% 15% 2.8 73% 83% -11.4
02.03.24 Altona Magic vs Dandenong Thunder 2-3 30% 31% -5.1 27% 30% -11.0 43% 49% -11.1
02.03.24 Hume City vs Port Melbourne Sharks 4-0 39% 43% -9.2 26% 29% -10.1 35% 38% -9.2
02.03.24 Manningham United Blues vs South Melbourne 2-5 18% 16% 11.4 21% 22% -2.2 61% 71% -14.8
03.03.24 Melbourne Knights vs St. Albans Saints 3-0 66% 74% -10.6 20% 21% -6.1 14% 14% 1.4
08.03.24 Green Gully SC vs Altona Magic 2-4 69% 79% -12.5 18% 17% 0.8 13% 12% 10.8
08.03.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs Dandenong Thunder 2-0 72% 81% -11.0 16% 17% -1.5 12% 11% 3.5
08.03.24 South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United 1-1 45% 49% -7.9 27% 31% -12.1 28% 31% -8.8
09.03.24 Hume City vs Avondale Heights 1-2 26% 28% -5.4 25% 27% -8.1 49% 55% -10.6
10.03.24 Melbourne Knights vs Dandenong City 2-2 49% 53% -7.8 24% 27% -9.1 27% 31% -11.5
10.03.24 St. Albans Saints vs Moreland City 4-0 42% 47% -9.1 26% 29% -9.3 32% 35% -8.7
11.03.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs Altona Magic 3-1 75% 83% -9.5 15% 15% -1.6 11% 11% -1.9
15.03.24 Dandenong City vs Dandenong Thunder 1-2 47% 53% -10.9 24% 26% -7.6 29% 31% -7.9
15.03.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs Green Gully SC 4-1 67% 76% -12.7 18% 18% 1.1 15% 14% 8.5
16.03.24 Altona Magic vs South Melbourne 1-4 16% 14% 12.8 19% 19% 1.8 64% 75% -14.2
16.03.24 Hume City vs St. Albans Saints 2-1 63% 71% -11.4 21% 22% -6.0 16% 15% 3.1
16.03.24 Manningham United Blues vs Avondale Heights 3-0 13% 12% 13.1 17% 17% 4.0 69% 80% -13.3
16.03.24 Port Melbourne Sharks vs Heidelberg United 2-2 33% 33% -2.4 26% 29% -9.5 42% 49% -14.7
22.03.24 Green Gully SC vs Dandenong Thunder 1-1 48% 54% -11.5 25% 27% -8.0 28% 29% -6.1
22.03.24 Melbourne Knights vs Hume City 2-5 39% 42% -6.9 26% 29% -9.4 35% 40% -11.7
22.03.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne 0-0 46% 49% -6.0 26% 29% -10.4 29% 32% -11.5
22.03.24 St. Albans Saints vs Manningham United Blues 2-1 40% 43% -7.5 25% 27% -7.6 35% 39% -11.2
23.03.24 Avondale Heights vs Heidelberg United 0-0 53% 58% -9.0 23% 26% -8.5 24% 26% -9.1
23.03.24 Moreland City vs Dandenong City 1-2 23% 23% 1.0 24% 25% -5.8 53% 61% -13.4
23.03.24 Port Melbourne Sharks vs Altona Magic 1-1 58% 65% -10.2 22% 23% -6.9 21% 22% -7.6
01.04.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs Dandenong Thunder 1-1 75% 84% -11.2 15% 15% 1.5 10% 10% 8.7
05.04.24 Dandenong City vs Green Gully SC 1-1 40% 43% -8.5 25% 28% -8.3 35% 38% -9.7
05.04.24 Heidelberg United vs St. Albans Saints 6-0 67% 76% -10.9 19% 20% -5.5 14% 13% 2.1
05.04.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs Port Melbourne Sharks 3-0 63% 71% -10.6 20% 22% -6.5 16% 17% -2.4
06.04.24 Avondale Heights vs Altona Magic 4-0 74% 82% -9.6 15% 15% -1.9 11% 11% -0.3
06.04.24 Dandenong Thunder vs South Melbourne 1-2 22% 21% 3.2 23% 25% -6.1 55% 64% -13.6
06.04.24 Hume City vs Moreland City 3-2 67% 76% -11.5 19% 19% -2.4 14% 14% 4.1
12.04.24 Melbourne Knights vs Heidelberg United 0-1 32% 33% -2.6 25% 28% -8.2 42% 49% -13.8
12.04.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs Avondale Heights 1-2 46% 51% -9.5 25% 28% -9.1 28% 31% -8.0
12.04.24 South Melbourne vs Green Gully SC 3-0 58% 65% -11.0 23% 24% -6.9 19% 19% 0.5
13.04.24 Altona Magic vs St. Albans Saints 1-0 46% 51% -10.1 25% 27% -7.9 29% 31% -7.2
13.04.24 Hume City vs Dandenong City 0-0 48% 53% -9.6 25% 28% -9.1 27% 29% -6.7
13.04.24 Port Melbourne Sharks vs Dandenong Thunder 3-0 47% 51% -8.9 26% 29% -10.3 28% 30% -8.8
19.04.24 Dandenong City vs South Melbourne 0-4 24% 23% 3.3 24% 26% -6.1 52% 61% -14.1
19.04.24 Heidelberg United vs Moreland City 3-2 74% 83% -11.3 16% 15% 1.1 11% 10% 10.6
19.04.24 Oakleigh Cannons vs St. Albans Saints 3-2 80% 88% -9.7 12% 12% 2.0 8% 7% 7.9
20.04.24 Altona Magic vs Melbourne Knights 1-0 28% 29% -3.5 25% 26% -6.6 47% 53% -12.0
20.04.24 Dandenong Thunder vs Avondale Heights 0-8 16% 15% 9.5 20% 21% -2.1 63% 74% -13.8
20.04.24 Green Gully SC vs Port Melbourne Sharks 1-2 37% 39% -6.8 27% 29% -9.6 37% 41% -9.7
20.04.24 Manningham United Blues vs Hume City 1-3 24% 24% -3.2 23% 24% -5.5 53% 61% -12.0
26.04.24 Melbourne Knights vs Oakleigh Cannons 0-1 23% 24% -1.7 23% 24% -4.7 54% 62% -13.2
27.04.24 Avondale Heights vs Green Gully SC 0-1 67% 76% -11.8 19% 19% -2.4 14% 13% 5.4
27.04.24 Dandenong Thunder vs St. Albans Saints 3-0 51% 58% -11.0 24% 27% -8.8 24% 26% -5.5
27.04.24 Hume City vs Heidelberg United 2-2 35% 38% -7.3 26% 29% -10.2 39% 43% -11.2
27.04.24 Manningham United Blues vs Dandenong City 2-3 29% 30% -4.0 25% 27% -7.1 46% 53% -12.3
27.04.24 Moreland City vs Altona Magic 2-3 34% 37% -7.9 25% 27% -7.2 41% 45% -10.2
27.04.24 Port Melbourne Sharks vs South Melbourne 2-3 24% 23% 5.6 25% 27% -7.0 51% 60% -14.6
03.05.24 Altona Magic vs Hume City 0-2 31% 34% -8.4 26% 29% -9.4 43% 48% -9.6
03.05.24 Dandenong Thunder vs Melbourne Knights 0-3 37% 40% -8.7 26% 29% -8.7 37% 41% -8.4
04.05.24 Green Gully SC vs St. Albans Saints 4-0 58% 66% -12.6 22% 24% -6.0 20% 20% 0.5
04.05.24 Heidelberg United vs Manningham United Blues 5-0 71% 80% -11.6 17% 17% -1.6 12% 11% 6.6
04.05.24 Port Melbourne Sharks vs Dandenong City 3-1 47% 51% -9.1 25% 28% -9.6 28% 31% -9.6
04.05.24 South Melbourne vs Avondale Heights 1-3 40% 44% -9.2 27% 30% -11.1 33% 36% -8.4
04.05.24 Werribee City vs Bentleigh Greens 2-2 19% 20% -3.1 22% 24% -7.6 59% 68% -13.8
05.05.24 Melbourne City U21 vs Eastern Lions 3-1 37% 38% -3.9 25% 29% -11.0 38% 45% -17.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 527 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Oakleigh Cannons 1826.93
2 Heidelberg United 1816.79
3 South Melbourne 1813.92
4 Hume City 1769.94
5 Avondale Heights 1769.35
6 Preston Lions 1759.14
7 Dandenong City 1679.86
8 St. Albans Saints 1671.02
9 Caroline Springs George Cross FC 1660.76
10 Altona Magic 1612.73
11 Green Gully SC 1533.05
12 Bentleigh Greens 1487.72
13 Melbourne City U21 1482.50
14 Dandenong Thunder 1326.23

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Oakleigh Cannons 1816.55
2 South Melbourne 1773.68
3 Avondale Heights 1767.88
4 Hume City 1746.89
5 Preston Lions 1743.58
6 Heidelberg United 1696.98
7 Dandenong City 1615.07
8 Altona Magic 1586.30
9 Green Gully SC 1570.33
10 Melbourne City U21 1558.80
11 St. Albans Saints 1545.77
12 Caroline Springs George Cross FC 1542.04
13 Bentleigh Greens 1502.46
14 Dandenong Thunder 1336.63