ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 380
Avg Goals 3.52
Avg Home 1.98
Avg Away 1.54
Home Win % 47.9%
Draw % 18.7%
Away Win % 33.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 380
Avg Brier Score 0.5873
Pick Accuracy 56.6%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5918
Market Brier 0.5902
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 11
Value Bet Hit Rate 36.4%
ROI (flat stake) 17.7%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 11 of 380 matches had at least one · staked 11.00, profit 1.95 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 11 36.4% 11.00 1.95 17.7%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.1% 20.0% 5
10–20% 17.4% 17.4% 184
20–30% 23.1% 22.0% 418
30–40% 34.8% 26.9% 171
40–50% 44.8% 55.6% 160
50–60% 54.9% 54.0% 124
60–70% 64.6% 70.5% 61
70–80% 73.0% 62.5% 16
80–90% 80.7% 0.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
06.05.24 Brunswick City vs Preston Lions 1-2 34% 38% -10.1 23% 28% -17.5 43% 48% -9.3
06.05.24 Bulleen Lions vs Western United U21 0-3 30% 28% 8.8 21% 24% -13.4 49% 61% -18.9
06.05.24 Kingston City vs Melbourne Victory U21 1-2 31% 24% 31.0 20% 24% -14.7 48% 65% -24.8
10.05.24 Bentleigh Greens vs Brunswick City 3-1 54% 58% -7.0 22% 28% -19.2 24% 27% -11.9
10.05.24 Preston Lions vs Langwarrin SC 4-1 64% 67% -4.3 19% 24% -20.2 17% 21% -18.3
11.05.24 North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne City U21 0-3 33% 29% 10.9 23% 28% -17.1 44% 55% -19.3
12.05.24 Western United U21 vs Melbourne Victory U21 4-4 50% 48% 4.0 21% 26% -19.5 30% 39% -23.9
13.05.24 Bulleen Lions vs Northcote City 1-1 36% 32% 13.1 22% 27% -17.2 41% 53% -22.1
17.05.24 Bentleigh Greens vs Langwarrin SC 1-2 63% 67% -5.8 19% 24% -19.6 18% 22% -17.1
17.05.24 Preston Lions vs Bulleen Lions 3-2 62% 63% -2.1 19% 24% -21.6 19% 24% -22.4
18.05.24 Eastern Lions vs Brunswick City 1-0 33% 35% -6.2 24% 29% -18.0 43% 48% -9.7
18.05.24 Kingston City vs Western United U21 1-2 26% 22% 18.3 20% 22% -11.5 55% 68% -19.7
18.05.24 North Geelong Warriors vs Werribee City 1-2 42% 42% 0.7 23% 29% -18.6 34% 42% -17.8
19.05.24 Melbourne Victory U21 vs Northcote City 1-2 52% 56% -7.2 22% 27% -17.8 27% 30% -12.5
24.05.24 Bentleigh Greens vs Bulleen Lions 2-2 60% 62% -2.8 19% 24% -19.9 21% 27% -21.4
25.05.24 Brunswick City vs North Geelong Warriors 0-2 63% 66% -4.7 19% 24% -20.3 17% 21% -17.3
25.05.24 Eastern Lions vs Langwarrin SC 2-1 46% 49% -5.8 23% 28% -17.6 31% 36% -12.7
26.05.24 Western United U21 vs Northcote City 3-3 49% 52% -4.7 22% 27% -17.9 28% 33% -14.7
27.05.24 Melbourne Victory U21 vs Preston Lions 2-2 34% 38% -10.3 23% 28% -17.6 43% 48% -9.2
31.05.24 Bentleigh Greens vs Melbourne Victory U21 0-0 42% 42% 1.6 22% 26% -17.1 36% 44% -19.4
31.05.24 Brunswick City vs Caroline Springs George Cross FC 3-1 43% 37% 16.7 22% 29% -22.2 35% 48% -27.4
31.05.24 Kingston City vs Northcote City 2-5 28% 27% 2.8 22% 26% -15.2 50% 60% -15.2
01.06.24 Eastern Lions vs Bulleen Lions 0-2 45% 47% -2.3 23% 28% -17.9 32% 38% -15.8
01.06.24 North Geelong Warriors vs Langwarrin SC 1-0 37% 38% -1.0 23% 27% -16.5 40% 48% -15.8
02.06.24 Western United U21 vs Preston Lions 4-2 43% 49% -11.7 22% 26% -15.6 35% 37% -6.3
07.06.24 Langwarrin SC vs Caroline Springs George Cross FC 3-2 41% 36% 13.1 22% 28% -20.0 37% 49% -24.9
07.06.24 Northcote City vs Preston Lions 1-1 41% 48% -14.6 23% 27% -16.1 37% 37% -1.1
08.06.24 Bulleen Lions vs North Geelong Warriors 1-0 58% 61% -3.9 20% 25% -19.6 22% 27% -18.8
08.06.24 Melbourne City U21 vs Brunswick City 2-1 52% 55% -5.3 21% 26% -17.1 27% 31% -14.5
08.06.24 Western United U21 vs Bentleigh Greens 4-1 56% 62% -9.6 20% 23% -14.2 24% 27% -9.9
09.06.24 Eastern Lions vs Melbourne Victory U21 1-3 24% 23% 6.0 21% 25% -15.0 55% 65% -15.3
14.06.24 Northcote City vs Bentleigh Greens 2-0 53% 60% -12.1 21% 25% -15.4 26% 27% -4.2
14.06.24 Werribee City vs Brunswick City 2-1 32% 34% -4.7 23% 28% -17.3 45% 51% -12.8
15.06.24 Eastern Lions vs Western United U21 0-4 18% 17% 3.3 18% 20% -11.2 64% 74% -12.6
15.06.24 Langwarrin SC vs Melbourne City U21 2-2 34% 36% -5.2 22% 26% -15.9 44% 51% -12.9
15.06.24 North Geelong Warriors vs Melbourne Victory U21 2-3 17% 15% 9.3 16% 17% -7.2 67% 78% -14.2
17.06.24 Bulleen Lions vs Caroline Springs George Cross FC 0-0 46% 41% 13.8 22% 28% -21.8 32% 43% -26.8
21.06.24 Langwarrin SC vs Werribee City 3-1 56% 60% -6.4 21% 25% -17.7 24% 28% -14.8
21.06.24 Northcote City vs Eastern Lions 2-0 68% 74% -8.2 17% 21% -16.3 15% 16% -8.9
23.06.24 Melbourne Victory U21 vs Caroline Springs George Cross FC 0-4 71% 71% -0.8 16% 22% -27.0 13% 18% -28.9
23.06.24 Western United U21 vs North Geelong Warriors 2-2 81% 86% -6.4 12% 15% -20.3 7% 8% -15.8
24.06.24 Bulleen Lions vs Melbourne City U21 2-1 47% 50% -6.1 22% 27% -17.1 31% 35% -12.7
24.06.24 Kingston City vs Brunswick City 1-1 46% 50% -7.8 22% 27% -16.6 32% 36% -11.4
28.06.24 Werribee City vs Bulleen Lions 0-0 24% 24% -1.2 20% 24% -14.2 55% 64% -12.9
29.06.24 Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs Western United U21 3-2 23% 24% -7.1 20% 23% -14.8 58% 65% -10.6
29.06.24 Langwarrin SC vs Brunswick City 6-3 41% 43% -6.0 24% 29% -17.5 36% 40% -11.1
29.06.24 Melbourne City U21 vs Melbourne Victory U21 3-3 31% 32% -4.4 23% 28% -17.5 46% 53% -13.1
29.06.24 Northcote City vs North Geelong Warriors 2-3 70% 76% -7.7 17% 20% -16.5 13% 15% -10.0
05.07.24 Langwarrin SC vs Kingston City 1-2 49% 53% -7.8 22% 26% -16.6 30% 33% -11.4
06.07.24 Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs Northcote City 1-2 28% 29% -4.2 22% 26% -15.2 50% 56% -11.3
06.07.24 Preston Lions vs North Geelong Warriors 3-2 68% 73% -7.0 18% 22% -18.6 14% 17% -13.4
07.07.24 Melbourne Victory U21 vs Werribee City 2-0 63% 64% -1.3 19% 24% -23.0 18% 24% -24.6
07.07.24 Western United U21 vs Melbourne City U21 1-2 51% 56% -8.8 21% 25% -15.9 28% 31% -11.2
08.07.24 Bulleen Lions vs Brunswick City 2-0 51% 54% -5.6 22% 27% -17.6 27% 31% -13.6
12.07.24 Brunswick City vs Melbourne Victory U21 3-2 28% 28% -0.6 21% 24% -14.3 52% 60% -14.5
12.07.24 Langwarrin SC vs Bulleen Lions 4-2 40% 43% -7.3 23% 28% -16.8 37% 41% -10.4
12.07.24 Werribee City vs Western United U21 0-2 18% 17% 3.6 17% 19% -9.9 65% 75% -13.1
13.07.24 Melbourne City U21 vs Northcote City 3-1 32% 31% 2.2 23% 28% -16.8 45% 53% -15.5
13.07.24 North Geelong Warriors vs Bentleigh Greens 2-3 28% 31% -8.1 23% 28% -17.5 49% 53% -8.7
19.07.24 Northcote City vs Werribee City 1-1 77% 83% -6.5 13% 16% -18.4 10% 12% -17.6
21.07.24 Melbourne Victory U21 vs Langwarrin SC 4-1 58% 60% -3.1 20% 24% -18.7 22% 28% -19.1
21.07.24 Western United U21 vs Brunswick City 1-2 58% 62% -7.7 20% 24% -17.1 23% 26% -14.3
22.07.24 Kingston City vs Bulleen Lions 0-4 36% 38% -4.5 23% 28% -17.3 41% 48% -13.9
26.07.24 Brunswick City vs Northcote City 5-3 25% 26% -3.4 21% 25% -15.3 53% 61% -11.9
27.07.24 Langwarrin SC vs Western United U21 1-2 27% 28% -3.4 21% 24% -14.7 52% 60% -13.1
28.07.24 Kingston City vs North Geelong Warriors 3-2 51% 54% -4.7 22% 27% -17.9 27% 31% -14.8
29.07.24 Bulleen Lions vs Melbourne Victory U21 5-5 31% 30% 3.0 23% 27% -16.3 46% 55% -16.0
09.08.24 Northcote City vs Langwarrin SC 2-0 62% 65% -4.8 19% 23% -18.6 19% 23% -17.7
09.08.24 Preston Lions vs Brunswick City 1-0 57% 61% -7.0 20% 24% -17.1 23% 26% -13.7
10.08.24 Melbourne Victory U21 vs Kingston City 4-0 65% 68% -4.9 18% 23% -19.8 17% 21% -18.9
10.08.24 North Geelong Warriors vs Caroline Springs George Cross FC 1-1 36% 37% -3.1 23% 27% -16.6 42% 49% -14.7
11.08.24 Western United U21 vs Bulleen Lions 5-0 55% 58% -5.3 21% 26% -17.9 24% 29% -15.1
17.08.24 Brunswick City vs Bentleigh Greens 1-2 44% 47% -4.6 23% 28% -17.4 33% 38% -13.4
17.08.24 Langwarrin SC vs Preston Lions 1-3 28% 29% -3.2 22% 26% -16.4 50% 57% -13.4
17.08.24 Melbourne City U21 vs North Geelong Warriors 2-2 62% 67% -7.0 19% 24% -18.3 18% 21% -13.1
17.08.24 Melbourne Victory U21 vs Western United U21 2-4 45% 45% -2.1 22% 27% -17.6 33% 40% -17.0
17.08.24 Northcote City vs Bulleen Lions 0-0 56% 59% -4.8 21% 26% -18.1 23% 27% -14.9
07.02.25 Brunswick City vs Eastern Lions 2-0 55% 57% -4.2 22% 27% -19.3 23% 28% -15.6
07.02.25 Northcote City vs North Sunshine Eagles 3-2 57% 60% -5.3 20% 25% -18.4 23% 27% -16.4
08.02.25 Langwarrin SC vs Caroline Springs George Cross FC 0-3 34% 32% 5.8 23% 27% -16.6 43% 53% -18.5
08.02.25 Manningham United Blues vs Melbourne City U21 2-2 43% 48% -8.7 22% 27% -17.0 34% 38% -11.4
10.02.25 Bulleen Lions vs Western United U21 2-3 34% 38% -8.7 22% 26% -16.1 43% 49% -10.9
10.02.25 Kingston City vs FC Melbourne Srbija 3-2 33% 31% 7.0 23% 27% -16.2 44% 53% -17.9
14.02.25 Brunswick City vs FC Melbourne Srbija 1-1 52% 53% -1.5 21% 26% -19.0 27% 33% -19.5
14.02.25 Eastern Lions vs Manningham United Blues 2-3 31% 33% -6.5 21% 25% -14.9 48% 54% -12.0
14.02.25 Langwarrin SC vs Bulleen Lions 1-4 37% 38% -2.2 22% 26% -15.2 41% 49% -15.2
15.02.25 Moreland City vs Northcote City 0-1 26% 29% -10.5 21% 25% -16.2 53% 58% -8.8
15.02.25 North Sunshine Eagles vs Caroline Springs George Cross FC 3-0 33% 29% 16.2 21% 24% -14.9 46% 60% -22.6
15.02.25 Western United U21 vs Kingston City 4-0 65% 68% -4.5 16% 19% -16.6 19% 24% -21.5
21.02.25 Brunswick City vs Western United U21 2-2 33% 33% 0.2 22% 27% -16.2 44% 53% -15.9
21.02.25 North Sunshine Eagles vs Moreland City 5-0 48% 49% -0.7 22% 28% -19.2 29% 36% -18.6
21.02.25 Northcote City vs Melbourne City U21 0-0 45% 43% 3.7 23% 29% -19.5 32% 40% -20.2
22.02.25 Manningham United Blues vs FC Melbourne Srbija 2-2 50% 52% -2.7 22% 27% -19.0 28% 34% -18.8
24.02.25 Bulleen Lions vs Caroline Springs George Cross FC 3-1 44% 44% -1.8 22% 27% -17.3 34% 41% -16.7
24.02.25 Kingston City vs Langwarrin SC 3-3 46% 49% -5.9 22% 26% -16.4 32% 37% -13.4
28.02.25 Eastern Lions vs Northcote City 1-1 28% 31% -8.1 23% 28% -17.8 49% 54% -9.6
01.03.25 Langwarrin SC vs Brunswick City 1-2 33% 33% -2.3 22% 26% -16.0 45% 53% -14.8
02.03.25 Western United U21 vs Manningham United Blues 5-0 58% 62% -6.6 19% 23% -16.1 23% 28% -16.1
03.03.25 Bulleen Lions vs North Sunshine Eagles 6-1 45% 47% -3.0 22% 26% -17.2 33% 40% -17.2
07.03.25 Bentleigh Greens vs Western United U21 2-0 44% 48% -7.7 23% 27% -16.7 34% 38% -11.2
Showing the 100 most recent of 380 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Brunswick Juventus FC 1627.20
2 Melbourne Knights 1565.90
3 Eltham Redbacks 1511.24
4 Northcote City 1503.23
5 Melbourne Victory U21 1485.27
6 Bulleen Lions 1476.26
7 FC Melbourne Srbija 1464.97
8 North Geelong Warriors 1376.83
9 North Sunshine Eagles 1370.37
10 Brunswick City 1369.32
11 Manningham United Blues 1359.21
12 Langwarrin SC 1337.69
13 Western United U21 1270.48
14 Port Melbourne Sharks 1109.26

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Brunswick Juventus FC 1501.91
2 Melbourne Victory U21 1499.49
3 Northcote City 1485.27
4 Bulleen Lions 1481.49
5 Melbourne Knights 1448.50
6 North Sunshine Eagles 1429.00
7 Eltham Redbacks 1388.98
8 FC Melbourne Srbija 1376.56
9 Brunswick City 1332.45
10 Langwarrin SC 1315.45
11 Manningham United Blues 1261.82
12 North Geelong Warriors 1248.02
13 Western United U21 1236.18
14 Port Melbourne Sharks 1114.60