ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 112
Avg Goals 2.95
Avg Home 1.60
Avg Away 1.35
Home Win % 42.9%
Draw % 26.8%
Away Win % 30.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 112
Avg Brier Score 0.5719
Pick Accuracy 53.6%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5723
Market Brier 0.5785
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 25.0%
ROI (flat stake) 7.5%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 112 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit 0.30 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 2 50.0% 2.00 2.30 115.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.6% 0.0% 19
10–20% 15.4% 15.4% 52
20–30% 25.5% 26.4% 129
30–40% 34.5% 36.8% 38
40–50% 45.4% 38.9% 36
50–60% 54.9% 66.7% 24
60–70% 64.6% 64.7% 17
70–80% 75.4% 64.7% 17
80–90% 82.6% 100.0% 4
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
28.09.23 FK Zaqatala vs FK MOIK Baku 2-2 54% 46% 18.1 22% 30% -27.0 23% 37% -36.7
29.09.23 FK Karvan Yevlakh vs Difai Agsu 2-0 51% 68% -24.4 26% 28% -6.8 23% 18% 29.0
29.09.23 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs Irevan FK 0-1 47% 56% -16.1 30% 34% -12.4 23% 23% 0.8
04.10.23 Difai Agsu vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 0-1 20% 29% -32.1 24% 32% -24.2 56% 52% 8.0
04.10.23 FK Zaqatala vs FK Karvan Yevlakh 2-2 46% 44% 4.6 25% 28% -11.7 29% 40% -28.8
05.10.23 FK MOIK Baku vs Shamakhi FK 3-3 35% 35% -0.5 26% 28% -6.4 39% 50% -22.2
19.09.24 Difai Agsu vs Imisli FK 0-4 19% 29% -33.4 22% 30% -25.5 58% 53% 9.9
19.09.24 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs FK Qabala 0-5 20% 28% -26.2 24% 29% -16.8 56% 56% 0.3
25.09.24 FK MOIK Baku vs Difai Agsu 2-2 75% 75% 0.1 15% 23% -33.4 9% 15% -37.8
26.09.24 FK Zaqatala vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 4-0 64% 67% -3.8 23% 27% -15.4 13% 18% -26.7
03.10.24 Difai Agsu vs FK Karvan Yevlakh 1-4 12% 18% -36.4 16% 24% -31.3 72% 71% 0.9
03.10.24 Energetik Mingechevir vs FK Zaqatala 2-3 18% 23% -22.3 26% 32% -17.6 56% 56% -0.7
03.10.24 Imisli FK vs FK MOIK Baku 3-0 48% 53% -9.1 28% 31% -11.1 24% 29% -17.1
16.10.24 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs Energetik Mingechevir 0-0 55% 60% -8.0 25% 27% -7.9 20% 25% -18.5
19.10.24 FK Qabala vs Difai Agsu 1-0 87% 92% -5.5 9% 14% -33.7 4% 7% -37.3
24.10.24 FK MOIK Baku vs FK Karvan Yevlakh 2-3 29% 27% 5.5 26% 27% -5.4 45% 58% -21.8
25.10.24 Difai Agsu vs FK Zaqatala 3-1 12% 17% -30.6 20% 26% -23.6 68% 69% -0.9
06.11.24 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs Difai Agsu 4-2 63% 65% -3.8 22% 27% -16.9 15% 21% -29.7
07.11.24 FK Qabala vs FK MOIK Baku 3-0 74% 75% -1.0 17% 24% -29.5 9% 14% -36.5
08.11.24 FK Zaqatala vs Imisli FK 1-4 23% 28% -18.4 26% 30% -12.8 51% 53% -4.8
27.11.24 FK MOIK Baku vs FK Zaqatala 3-1 51% 52% -1.6 26% 29% -10.4 23% 31% -23.9
27.11.24 Imisli FK vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 2-1 66% 68% -2.0 21% 27% -20.1 12% 18% -31.4
28.11.24 Difai Agsu vs Energetik Mingechevir 3-3 29% 34% -14.7 26% 28% -7.2 45% 50% -10.3
11.12.24 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs FK MOIK Baku 3-0 34% 38% -12.6 27% 29% -7.9 39% 44% -11.6
13.12.24 FK Zaqatala vs FK Karvan Yevlakh 2-2 22% 27% -17.5 25% 28% -11.0 53% 57% -7.4
19.12.24 FK Qabala vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 3-0 81% 85% -4.1 13% 17% -26.3 6% 9% -35.1
19.12.24 Imisli FK vs Difai Agsu 1-0 75% 77% -2.5 16% 21% -24.7 9% 14% -35.0
24.12.24 Difai Agsu vs FK MOIK Baku 0-1 18% 24% -24.5 22% 26% -14.6 60% 63% -5.0
24.12.24 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs FK Zaqatala 1-1 40% 45% -11.2 26% 28% -6.0 33% 38% -13.8
30.01.25 FK Karvan Yevlakh vs Difai Agsu 3-3 79% 81% -2.9 14% 19% -28.6 7% 12% -36.3
30.01.25 FK MOIK Baku vs Imisli FK 4-3 26% 30% -15.8 28% 31% -11.7 47% 50% -6.2
31.01.25 FK Zaqatala vs Energetik Mingechevir 2-1 67% 69% -2.9 20% 25% -18.2 13% 18% -30.7
06.02.25 Difai Agsu vs FK Qabala 0-1 5% 8% -37.0 12% 19% -35.4 82% 85% -2.7
07.02.25 Energetik Mingechevir vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 1-1 19% 24% -19.3 24% 28% -12.8 57% 61% -6.7
13.02.25 FK Karvan Yevlakh vs FK MOIK Baku 3-1 56% 56% 0.2 24% 28% -14.6 20% 28% -29.0
14.02.25 FK Zaqatala vs Difai Agsu 1-1 64% 65% -2.6 22% 26% -16.1 14% 20% -28.6
19.02.25 FK MOIK Baku vs FK Qabala 0-4 10% 15% -32.5 19% 26% -26.7 71% 71% -0.9
19.02.25 Imisli FK vs FK Zaqatala 1-0 59% 60% -0.5 24% 29% -16.9 16% 23% -28.2
20.02.25 Difai Agsu vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 2-1 30% 36% -17.4 27% 30% -10.2 43% 45% -6.0
28.02.25 Energetik Mingechevir vs Difai Agsu 1-0 39% 43% -8.6 29% 33% -10.7 32% 37% -14.1
28.02.25 FK MOIK Baku vs FK Zaqatala 0-0 48% 50% -4.2 28% 31% -10.3 24% 30% -19.2
28.02.25 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs Imisli FK 0-1 23% 29% -23.2 26% 30% -15.2 52% 53% -1.7
06.03.25 FK MOIK Baku vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 2-2 49% 51% -3.6 26% 29% -9.8 25% 32% -23.1
07.03.25 FK Karvan Yevlakh vs FK Zaqatala 3-2 63% 65% -3.0 23% 27% -16.2 14% 20% -27.9
13.03.25 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs FK Karvan Yevlakh 1-1 26% 33% -21.1 25% 28% -10.5 49% 51% -3.9
13.03.25 FK Zaqatala vs FK Qabala 1-1 9% 14% -35.3 18% 26% -31.4 73% 72% 1.1
14.03.25 Energetik Mingechevir vs FK MOIK Baku 1-0 31% 38% -19.1 30% 34% -14.2 40% 41% -2.2
27.03.25 FK MOIK Baku vs Difai Agsu 1-3 49% 50% -2.4 27% 31% -11.9 24% 31% -22.9
27.03.25 FK Zaqatala vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 0-0 38% 41% -7.9 28% 30% -7.4 35% 41% -14.8
03.04.25 Cebrayil vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 0-0 40% 34% 16.3 28% 33% -15.9 32% 45% -29.9
03.04.25 Difai Agsu vs FK Karvan Yevlakh 3-5 19% 26% -27.5 22% 27% -17.6 59% 59% 0.6
03.04.25 Energetik Mingechevir vs FK Zaqatala 2-2 42% 45% -8.2 28% 31% -8.8 30% 34% -13.7
04.04.25 Baku Sporting vs FK Qabala 0-5 9% 12% -19.9 20% 24% -17.4 71% 77% -7.8
04.04.25 Imisli FK vs FK MOIK Baku 2-1 68% 69% -1.6 20% 26% -20.8 12% 17% -32.0
10.04.25 FK MOIK Baku vs Cebrayil 2-1 53% 56% -4.9 26% 30% -11.7 20% 26% -21.3
10.04.25 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs Energetik Mingechevir 0-0 40% 40% 1.1 29% 33% -11.7 31% 39% -22.0
10.04.25 FK Zaqatala vs Baku Sporting 6-1 43% 47% -7.5 28% 31% -9.0 29% 33% -14.3
17.04.25 Baku Sporting vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 0-1 40% 42% -5.2 29% 32% -10.5 32% 38% -17.7
17.04.25 Cebrayil vs Energetik Mingechevir 2-0 32% 37% -13.1 30% 34% -12.5 38% 41% -7.8
17.04.25 Difai Agsu vs FK Zaqatala 1-0 21% 24% -12.3 27% 31% -11.5 52% 56% -6.6
24.04.25 Energetik Mingechevir vs Baku Sporting 4-0 56% 60% -6.4 25% 28% -10.0 19% 24% -20.8
24.04.25 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs Difai Agsu 3-1 63% 62% 1.1 22% 28% -19.3 14% 21% -30.8
01.05.25 Cebrayil vs Baku Sporting 2-1 47% 54% -13.2 28% 30% -7.8 25% 27% -5.7
01.05.25 Difai Agsu vs Energetik Mingechevir 1-4 34% 42% -18.3 28% 31% -10.1 38% 38% -1.5
02.05.25 FK Zaqatala vs FK MOIK Baku 1-0 49% 49% -0.4 28% 31% -11.8 24% 31% -22.4
02.05.25 Imisli FK vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 3-1 74% 77% -4.3 18% 22% -18.7 9% 12% -30.6
08.05.25 Baku Sporting vs Difai Agsu 1-2 38% 41% -7.5 29% 32% -9.7 33% 38% -13.8
08.05.25 FK Qabala vs Cebrayil 3-1 79% 80% -1.2 14% 21% -31.5 7% 11% -36.4
09.05.25 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs FK MOIK Baku 0-1 53% 57% -7.8 26% 29% -10.3 21% 26% -18.4
09.05.25 FK Zaqatala vs FK Karvan Yevlakh 3-0 31% 36% -14.0 26% 29% -7.5 43% 48% -10.0
16.05.25 Difai Agsu vs Cebrayil 1-1 46% 48% -4.1 32% 38% -15.6 22% 26% -14.7
16.05.25 FK Karvan Yevlakh vs FK Qaradag Lokbatan 2-2 75% 80% -6.2 17% 20% -15.1 8% 11% -28.0
16.05.25 FK MOIK Baku vs Energetik Mingechevir 1-3 45% 50% -10.2 28% 31% -9.8 27% 31% -13.9
16.05.25 Imisli FK vs Baku Sporting 0-0 78% 81% -3.5 15% 20% -26.2 7% 11% -35.0
22.05.25 FK Qaradag Lokbatan vs FK Qabala 0-3 8% 13% -36.8 14% 21% -32.0 77% 80% -3.6
11.09.25 FK MOIK Baku vs FK Sahdag Samur 1-2 46% 61% -24.6 26% 29% -8.1 28% 23% 20.5
11.09.25 FK Zaqatala vs Cebrayil 1-0 59% 61% -4.1 24% 29% -14.7 17% 23% -26.1
12.09.25 Sabail FC vs Energetik Mingechevir 2-0 63% 59% 7.2 22% 29% -25.9 15% 23% -34.8
13.09.25 Baku Sporting vs Difai Agsu 2-2 38% 43% -10.8 30% 33% -11.3 33% 37% -12.2
17.09.25 Cebrayil vs Energetik Mingechevir 1-3 26% 32% -18.9 28% 32% -13.4 46% 48% -3.5
18.09.25 Difai Agsu vs Sabail FC 1-2 14% 20% -30.2 21% 28% -23.0 64% 65% -0.2
18.09.25 FK Sahdag Samur vs Baku Sporting 2-3 41% 45% -10.9 31% 35% -12.4 29% 32% -9.5
24.09.25 Energetik Mingechevir vs Difai Agsu 2-0 63% 67% -5.8 24% 28% -15.2 14% 18% -24.9
24.09.25 Sabail FC vs FK Sahdag Samur 2-0 77% 80% -4.2 16% 20% -22.2 8% 12% -33.5
25.09.25 FK MOIK Baku vs FK Zaqatala 0-1 45% 51% -11.7 27% 30% -7.9 27% 31% -11.4
01.10.25 FK Sahdag Samur vs Energetik Mingechevir 0-0 12% 16% -28.0 20% 26% -21.8 68% 69% -1.1
02.10.25 FK Zaqatala vs Baku Sporting 1-1 50% 51% -3.2 28% 32% -14.3 23% 30% -23.9
03.10.25 Cebrayil vs Difai Agsu 4-0 38% 47% -17.3 29% 32% -10.4 33% 33% -2.0
15.10.25 Sabail FC vs FK Zaqatala 1-0 79% 83% -5.0 15% 20% -25.8 6% 9% -34.5
16.10.25 Difai Agsu vs FK Sahdag Samur 1-2 38% 42% -8.2 27% 29% -6.4 35% 42% -15.9
16.10.25 FK MOIK Baku vs Cebrayil 4-1 47% 50% -6.8 27% 29% -9.3 27% 33% -19.8
22.10.25 FK MOIK Baku vs Baku Sporting 0-0 46% 49% -6.1 27% 30% -10.2 27% 34% -20.3
23.10.25 Cebrayil vs FK Sahdag Samur 3-1 41% 43% -4.1 29% 33% -10.8 30% 36% -17.6
23.10.25 FK Zaqatala vs Energetik Mingechevir 2-3 25% 32% -24.0 26% 30% -15.2 50% 51% -2.9
05.11.25 Baku Sporting vs Cebrayil 2-0 49% 51% -3.8 27% 31% -11.5 23% 30% -21.5
05.11.25 Sabail FC vs FK MOIK Baku 1-0 80% 83% -3.9 13% 17% -25.0 7% 11% -35.0
06.11.25 Difai Agsu vs FK Zaqatala 1-2 32% 39% -19.3 28% 32% -12.1 40% 43% -4.9
20.11.25 FK MOIK Baku vs Energetik Mingechevir 0-3 26% 31% -17.2 27% 30% -11.6 47% 51% -7.7
20.11.25 FK Zaqatala vs FK Sahdag Samur 1-0 47% 50% -5.3 28% 31% -10.6 25% 31% -19.6
21.11.25 Baku Sporting vs Sabail FC 0-0 14% 21% -33.2 22% 30% -27.3 64% 62% 3.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 112 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Sabail FC 1575.22
2 FK MOIK Baku 1378.13
3 FK Zaqatala 1374.04
4 Baku Sporting 1351.98
5 FK Sahdag Samur 1335.01
6 Cebrayil 1303.34
7 FK Qaradag Lokbatan 1289.94
8 Difai Agsu 1258.63

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Sabail FC 1501.41
2 FK Zaqatala 1307.89
3 Cebrayil 1303.60
4 Baku Sporting 1291.74
5 FK MOIK Baku 1273.51
6 FK Sahdag Samur 1243.95
7 Difai Agsu 1229.48
8 FK Qaradag Lokbatan 1197.24