ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 553
Avg Goals 2.52
Avg Home 1.34
Avg Away 1.18
Home Win % 40.9%
Draw % 25.0%
Away Win % 34.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 553
Avg Brier Score 0.5664
Pick Accuracy 53.3%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5692
Market Brier 0.5675
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 553 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.5% 12.2% 74
10–20% 15.5% 10.2% 256
20–30% 26.1% 27.3% 649
30–40% 34.0% 34.0% 200
40–50% 44.7% 38.8% 188
50–60% 54.4% 61.3% 119
60–70% 64.4% 71.6% 95
70–80% 74.9% 69.2% 52
80–90% 83.1% 88.0% 25
90–100% 91.2% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.08.23 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs PFK Turan Tovuz 0-3 29% 30% -5.0 27% 30% -9.6 44% 52% -15.5
05.08.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs Zira IK 0-1 78% 81% -4.6 15% 19% -20.9 7% 10% -26.2
05.08.23 Sabail FC vs FK Standard Sumgayit 1-4 46% 49% -4.9 28% 32% -13.8 26% 31% -17.4
06.08.23 FK Kapaz vs FK Neftchi Baku 1-0 18% 24% -24.8 24% 29% -16.7 57% 58% -2.3
06.08.23 Sabah FK vs FK Qabala 5-0 68% 70% -3.1 20% 25% -20.2 12% 17% -26.1
12.08.23 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs FK Qabala 2-0 32% 36% -10.5 28% 31% -9.9 40% 44% -10.3
12.08.23 Zira IK vs FK Kapaz 1-0 59% 63% -6.2 24% 29% -15.2 16% 20% -17.8
13.08.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs PFK Turan Tovuz 3-0 77% 78% -1.2 14% 19% -25.9 9% 14% -32.4
14.08.23 FK Neftchi Baku vs Sabail FC 1-1 65% 70% -7.1 21% 24% -13.0 14% 17% -17.0
18.08.23 FK Kapaz vs PFK Turan Tovuz 0-2 36% 40% -9.9 29% 33% -12.2 35% 39% -11.5
19.08.23 FK Qabala vs FK Standard Sumgayit 1-2 47% 52% -8.6 27% 30% -10.9 26% 29% -12.8
19.08.23 Sabail FC vs Zira IK 1-2 30% 34% -11.9 29% 33% -12.7 41% 45% -10.9
20.08.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 2-1 83% 85% -2.4 11% 16% -29.5 6% 9% -33.7
20.08.23 Sabah FK vs FK Neftchi Baku 1-1 46% 51% -8.9 26% 29% -9.6 28% 33% -15.6
25.08.23 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs FK Standard Sumgayit 1-1 48% 52% -7.1 27% 30% -12.3 25% 30% -16.6
26.08.23 PFK Turan Tovuz vs Sabail FC 1-3 43% 48% -10.3 28% 32% -11.7 29% 32% -10.6
26.08.23 Zira IK vs Sabah FK 1-0 24% 29% -14.5 28% 32% -12.9 47% 52% -8.4
27.08.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs FK Kapaz 1-1 80% 83% -4.4 14% 17% -22.3 7% 10% -28.3
27.08.23 FK Neftchi Baku vs FK Qabala 2-0 54% 56% -3.0 25% 29% -15.1 21% 27% -21.7
01.09.23 Sabah FK vs PFK Turan Tovuz 0-3 73% 78% -5.7 17% 21% -17.1 10% 12% -22.9
02.09.23 FK Qabala vs Zira IK 1-0 35% 41% -13.4 30% 34% -12.5 35% 38% -7.2
02.09.23 FK Standard Sumgayit vs FK Neftchi Baku 0-1 16% 20% -18.9 24% 27% -12.9 60% 65% -6.6
03.09.23 FK Kapaz vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 1-2 37% 41% -8.4 29% 33% -12.5 33% 38% -13.0
03.09.23 Sabail FC vs FK Karabakh Agdam 2-1 9% 12% -26.6 17% 21% -18.4 74% 78% -5.2
15.09.23 Zira IK vs FK Standard Sumgayit 1-0 56% 60% -5.8 25% 29% -14.8 19% 23% -18.4
16.09.23 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs FK Neftchi Baku 1-0 22% 24% -11.8 26% 29% -10.4 52% 58% -9.8
16.09.23 FK Kapaz vs Sabail FC 0-3 35% 41% -15.0 29% 33% -12.7 36% 39% -7.7
17.09.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs Sabah FK 2-0 48% 51% -6.3 27% 30% -12.4 25% 31% -17.3
17.09.23 PFK Turan Tovuz vs FK Qabala 2-2 40% 45% -12.7 29% 33% -12.4 31% 34% -8.2
23.09.23 FK Standard Sumgayit vs PFK Turan Tovuz 0-0 36% 43% -14.3 29% 33% -12.4 34% 37% -7.3
23.09.23 Zira IK vs FK Neftchi Baku 1-1 31% 34% -8.8 30% 35% -13.2 38% 43% -10.5
24.09.23 Sabah FK vs FK Kapaz 2-2 74% 77% -3.9 17% 22% -21.8 9% 12% -26.3
24.09.23 Sabail FC vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 1-0 39% 42% -8.3 29% 33% -12.6 32% 37% -13.2
25.09.23 FK Qabala vs FK Karabakh Agdam 1-2 10% 13% -25.8 17% 21% -17.0 73% 77% -4.9
29.09.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs FK Standard Sumgayit 5-0 81% 84% -3.4 13% 17% -24.0 6% 9% -29.5
30.09.23 PFK Turan Tovuz vs FK Neftchi Baku 0-1 25% 29% -15.3 28% 32% -13.0 47% 51% -8.2
30.09.23 Sabail FC vs Sabah FK 2-2 22% 28% -22.6 26% 31% -15.2 52% 54% -3.1
01.10.23 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs Zira IK 1-0 40% 45% -11.4 31% 36% -14.9 29% 31% -8.0
01.10.23 FK Kapaz vs FK Qabala 0-1 28% 32% -12.1 29% 32% -11.6 43% 48% -9.5
06.10.23 Zira IK vs PFK Turan Tovuz 2-1 44% 49% -10.7 28% 32% -11.9 28% 31% -10.4
07.10.23 FK Qabala vs Sabail FC 0-1 46% 53% -13.8 27% 30% -10.1 27% 29% -6.8
07.10.23 Sabah FK vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 1-1 58% 61% -5.1 24% 29% -16.7 17% 22% -20.6
08.10.23 FK Neftchi Baku vs FK Karabakh Agdam 0-2 20% 25% -18.1 26% 29% -12.7 54% 58% -6.9
08.10.23 FK Standard Sumgayit vs FK Kapaz 1-0 42% 45% -6.5 29% 34% -13.9 28% 33% -14.9
20.10.23 PFK Turan Tovuz vs FK Karabakh Agdam 2-2 10% 13% -23.3 18% 21% -14.3 72% 77% -6.5
20.10.23 Sabail FC vs FK Neftchi Baku 2-4 22% 28% -19.6 27% 31% -14.2 51% 54% -5.9
21.10.23 FK Kapaz vs Zira IK 0-0 27% 31% -12.1 28% 32% -12.2 45% 50% -10.8
21.10.23 Sabah FK vs FK Standard Sumgayit 3-1 67% 71% -4.9 20% 24% -17.2 12% 16% -22.6
22.10.23 FK Qabala vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 1-4 41% 45% -10.5 29% 32% -11.5 31% 34% -10.8
25.10.23 FK Standard Sumgayit vs Sabah FK 1-0 16% 20% -18.1 23% 26% -11.2 61% 66% -8.1
28.10.23 PFK Turan Tovuz vs FK Kapaz 4-0 44% 47% -5.3 28% 32% -12.9 28% 33% -16.4
28.10.23 Zira IK vs Sabail FC 2-2 49% 56% -11.9 28% 31% -11.9 24% 26% -8.3
29.10.23 FK Neftchi Baku vs Sabah FK 0-1 33% 37% -10.1 29% 33% -12.2 37% 42% -11.3
29.10.23 FK Standard Sumgayit vs FK Qabala 0-0 32% 36% -12.6 29% 32% -11.2 40% 43% -9.0
30.10.23 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs FK Karabakh Agdam 2-1 14% 17% -20.5 22% 25% -13.4 65% 68% -5.8
03.11.23 Sabail FC vs PFK Turan Tovuz 2-1 36% 41% -12.2 28% 31% -10.7 36% 41% -11.2
04.11.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs FK Kapaz 7-1 82% 85% -3.7 12% 15% -24.5 6% 9% -30.5
04.11.23 FK Standard Sumgayit vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 2-0 30% 36% -14.9 29% 33% -13.1 41% 44% -8.6
05.11.23 FK Qabala vs FK Neftchi Baku 0-2 28% 34% -16.3 28% 32% -12.4 43% 47% -6.8
05.11.23 Sabah FK vs Zira IK 0-1 53% 55% -3.5 26% 31% -15.9 21% 26% -20.2
10.11.23 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs FK Kapaz 0-1 63% 67% -6.4 23% 27% -14.5 14% 17% -15.6
11.11.23 FK Neftchi Baku vs FK Standard Sumgayit 1-2 62% 66% -5.7 22% 26% -15.2 15% 19% -20.0
11.11.23 PFK Turan Tovuz vs Sabah FK 2-3 26% 30% -15.0 27% 30% -10.9 47% 52% -8.8
12.11.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs Sabail FC 3-1 83% 86% -4.0 11% 15% -24.5 6% 9% -30.9
12.11.23 Zira IK vs FK Qabala 1-0 47% 53% -11.0 28% 32% -12.1 25% 27% -8.3
24.11.23 Sabah FK vs FK Karabakh Agdam 1-2 19% 24% -20.1 25% 29% -14.1 56% 59% -5.3
25.11.23 FK Qabala vs PFK Turan Tovuz 4-0 41% 48% -13.4 28% 31% -10.8 31% 34% -8.9
25.11.23 Sabail FC vs FK Kapaz 0-0 45% 49% -7.7 28% 31% -11.9 27% 32% -14.9
26.11.23 FK Neftchi Baku vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 1-1 42% 47% -9.3 29% 33% -13.4 29% 33% -13.2
26.11.23 FK Standard Sumgayit vs Zira IK 0-0 30% 35% -12.5 30% 35% -13.3 39% 43% -7.6
02.12.23 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs Sabail FC 1-1 58% 63% -8.1 24% 28% -13.2 18% 21% -15.8
02.12.23 PFK Turan Tovuz vs FK Standard Sumgayit 2-2 48% 53% -9.7 27% 30% -12.0 26% 30% -14.8
03.12.23 FK Kapaz vs Sabah FK 0-2 16% 20% -18.1 24% 27% -12.7 60% 65% -8.2
03.12.23 FK Neftchi Baku vs Zira IK 1-0 45% 48% -6.1 29% 34% -15.1 26% 31% -15.5
04.12.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs FK Qabala 3-0 76% 81% -5.3 15% 19% -19.2 8% 11% -25.7
08.12.23 FK Standard Sumgayit vs FK Karabakh Agdam 1-6 10% 13% -24.5 18% 21% -15.6 72% 76% -5.5
09.12.23 FK Qabala vs FK Kapaz 0-3 52% 56% -5.7 26% 31% -14.8 21% 26% -18.6
09.12.23 Zira IK vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 0-0 41% 47% -12.5 31% 36% -14.0 29% 30% -5.5
10.12.23 FK Neftchi Baku vs PFK Turan Tovuz 3-2 54% 58% -6.9 26% 29% -13.2 20% 24% -15.9
10.12.23 Sabah FK vs Sabail FC 4-0 66% 71% -7.0 21% 24% -13.9 13% 16% -18.5
14.12.23 FK Kapaz vs FK Standard Sumgayit 1-1 35% 41% -13.1 28% 31% -10.7 37% 41% -10.3
15.12.23 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs Sabah FK 2-0 25% 29% -13.5 26% 29% -9.9 48% 53% -10.1
15.12.23 Sabail FC vs FK Qabala 3-0 30% 34% -12.9 28% 31% -10.4 42% 47% -8.7
16.12.23 PFK Turan Tovuz vs Zira IK 1-0 35% 41% -14.4 30% 34% -13.3 35% 38% -6.8
18.12.23 FK Karabakh Agdam vs FK Neftchi Baku 2-0 74% 80% -7.3 16% 19% -13.7 9% 12% -20.1
22.12.23 FK Qabala vs Sabah FK 1-0 24% 24% 0.4 24% 26% -4.8 52% 63% -18.4
23.12.23 FK Standard Sumgayit vs Sabail FC 1-0 42% 49% -13.6 28% 31% -10.5 30% 32% -7.3
23.12.23 PFK Turan Tovuz vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 2-1 38% 43% -12.0 28% 31% -10.5 34% 38% -10.5
24.12.23 FK Neftchi Baku vs FK Kapaz 2-0 57% 58% -2.0 23% 28% -16.3 19% 26% -24.3
24.12.23 Zira IK vs FK Karabakh Agdam 0-1 11% 15% -26.9 19% 24% -18.8 69% 72% -3.5
21.01.24 Sabah FK vs FK Neftchi Baku 0-0 51% 54% -5.7 26% 30% -14.2 23% 29% -19.4
22.01.24 FK Kapaz vs PFK Turan Tovuz 2-1 31% 37% -16.2 28% 32% -12.0 41% 43% -6.7
22.01.24 Sabail FC vs Zira IK 0-0 28% 31% -9.2 30% 34% -13.1 42% 47% -10.5
23.01.24 FK Karabakh Agdam vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK 3-1 80% 85% -6.0 13% 16% -16.4 7% 9% -23.7
23.01.24 FK Qabala vs FK Standard Sumgayit 0-1 44% 43% 0.1 28% 32% -14.6 29% 37% -21.9
26.01.24 PFK Turan Tovuz vs Sabail FC 3-1 48% 54% -10.5 27% 30% -11.1 25% 28% -11.2
27.01.24 FK Kapaz vs FK Karabakh Agdam 1-2 6% 9% -28.9 14% 17% -20.9 80% 84% -5.1
27.01.24 Zira IK vs Sabah FK 0-1 31% 37% -15.2 30% 35% -14.0 38% 41% -5.9
28.01.24 Araz Nakhchivan PFK vs FK Standard Sumgayit 1-1 49% 53% -7.5 27% 31% -13.1 24% 28% -15.0
28.01.24 FK Neftchi Baku vs FK Qabala 3-1 62% 67% -7.0 22% 26% -13.1 16% 19% -17.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 553 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FK Karabakh Agdam 2043.22
2 Sabah FK 2036.41
3 FK Neftchi Baku 1998.96
4 PFK Turan Tovuz 1898.45
5 Zira IK 1874.08
6 Shamakhi FK 1757.74
7 Araz Nakhchivan PFK 1750.94
8 FK Qabala 1726.35
9 Shafa FK Baku 1717.13
10 FK Kapaz 1710.46
11 FK Standard Sumgayit 1706.51
12 Imisli FK 1685.03
13 FK Karvan Yevlakh 1565.22
14 Energetik Mingechevir 1405.15

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 FK Karabakh Agdam 2005.94
2 Sabah FK 1970.70
3 FK Neftchi Baku 1937.50
4 PFK Turan Tovuz 1826.45
5 Zira IK 1809.99
6 FK Kapaz 1751.99
7 FK Qabala 1709.82
8 FK Standard Sumgayit 1704.74
9 Shamakhi FK 1667.81
10 Araz Nakhchivan PFK 1654.52
11 Imisli FK 1630.50
12 Shafa FK Baku 1607.85
13 FK Karvan Yevlakh 1584.15
14 Energetik Mingechevir 1517.20