ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 94
Avg Goals 2.04
Avg Home 1.14
Avg Away 0.90
Home Win % 39.4%
Draw % 33.0%
Away Win % 27.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 94
Avg Brier Score 0.5578
Pick Accuracy 50.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5662
Market Brier 0.5624
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 100.0%
ROI (flat stake) 90.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 94 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit 0.90 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 100.0% 1.00 0.90 90.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.2% 5.3% 19
10–20% 15.6% 8.9% 45
20–30% 25.2% 24.6% 69
30–40% 34.7% 43.4% 76
40–50% 44.7% 29.6% 27
50–60% 55.2% 50.0% 16
60–70% 63.9% 71.4% 14
70–80% 73.9% 76.9% 13
80–90% 81.9% 100.0% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
02.08.23 AA Dimensao Saude AL vs SC Penedense 0-1 14% 17% -18.2 27% 26% 4.4 59% 68% -13.9
20.01.24 Murici SC vs CS Esportivo 2-1 35% 42% -17.4 35% 35% 1.8 30% 36% -16.9
20.01.24 SC Penedense vs CRB Maceio 0-1 18% 21% -16.6 29% 27% 6.6 54% 64% -15.8
21.01.24 ASA Arapiraca vs Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 2-1 62% 64% -2.3 25% 28% -11.0 13% 20% -34.8
21.01.24 CS Alagoano vs AA Coruripe 1-0 79% 83% -5.4 16% 19% -14.4 5% 7% -34.7
24.01.24 Cruzeiro de Arapiraca vs CS Alagoano 0-2 18% 28% -35.9 23% 31% -26.6 59% 53% 12.6
25.01.24 CRB Maceio vs Murici SC 1-0 77% 82% -6.7 18% 19% -7.1 6% 9% -33.4
26.01.24 AA Coruripe vs SC Penedense 0-0 43% 45% -6.5 33% 32% 1.8 25% 34% -28.5
26.01.24 CS Esportivo vs ASA Arapiraca 2-0 28% 34% -16.2 34% 33% 2.9 37% 45% -17.9
28.01.24 ASA Arapiraca vs AA Coruripe 1-1 58% 64% -9.0 29% 29% -1.1 13% 18% -28.7
28.01.24 CS Alagoano vs CRB Maceio 1-3 30% 39% -22.8 33% 32% 2.4 37% 42% -11.9
28.01.24 SC Penedense vs CS Esportivo 1-1 38% 39% -3.5 33% 32% 3.4 29% 40% -27.9
03.02.24 Murici SC vs Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 2-0 45% 53% -15.1 33% 31% 5.3 22% 28% -21.8
07.02.24 CRB Maceio vs CS Esportivo 1-1 63% 62% 0.6 21% 24% -12.6 16% 26% -36.4
08.02.24 ASA Arapiraca vs CS Alagoano 2-0 30% 37% -17.9 35% 35% 1.2 34% 41% -15.9
10.02.24 AA Coruripe vs Murici SC 1-1 28% 34% -18.9 36% 36% -1.2 36% 42% -13.3
11.02.24 Cruzeiro de Arapiraca vs SC Penedense 0-1 43% 48% -10.5 33% 32% 3.3 24% 32% -25.5
17.02.24 CS Esportivo vs AA Coruripe 1-1 50% 52% -3.8 32% 34% -5.5 18% 26% -31.2
17.02.24 Murici SC vs CS Alagoano 0-0 25% 33% -24.8 33% 34% -2.9 42% 45% -7.5
18.02.24 CRB Maceio vs Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 1-0 76% 80% -4.5 17% 20% -15.8 7% 11% -35.6
18.02.24 SC Penedense vs ASA Arapiraca 1-2 28% 33% -17.1 34% 33% 2.7 38% 45% -16.1
24.02.24 ASA Arapiraca vs Murici SC 2-2 47% 51% -6.8 33% 34% -2.2 20% 28% -28.8
24.02.24 CS Alagoano vs SC Penedense 1-1 63% 66% -4.2 25% 29% -11.9 11% 17% -34.7
25.02.24 AA Coruripe vs CRB Maceio 0-1 12% 19% -35.7 21% 29% -27.4 66% 63% 4.9
25.02.24 Cruzeiro de Arapiraca vs CS Esportivo 1-2 26% 32% -18.0 34% 34% 1.6 39% 45% -13.9
02.03.24 AA Coruripe vs Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 1-0 39% 47% -15.4 36% 35% 1.4 25% 31% -19.7
02.03.24 CRB Maceio vs ASA Arapiraca 0-2 56% 56% 0.3 29% 33% -12.6 15% 23% -34.4
02.03.24 CS Esportivo vs CS Alagoano 3-2 28% 35% -19.0 36% 36% -1.0 36% 41% -12.3
02.03.24 Murici SC vs SC Penedense 0-0 51% 55% -6.6 31% 32% -2.6 18% 25% -29.8
09.03.24 Murici SC vs CRB Maceio 1-2 20% 28% -29.2 32% 36% -12.3 48% 49% -0.7
10.03.24 CS Esportivo vs ASA Arapiraca 0-2 42% 45% -8.5 34% 34% 1.4 24% 32% -25.6
16.03.24 CRB Maceio vs Murici SC 3-0 61% 63% -4.0 27% 30% -11.6 12% 19% -34.5
17.03.24 ASA Arapiraca vs CS Esportivo 2-0 45% 51% -11.0 34% 34% 0.7 21% 28% -24.8
11.01.25 SC Penedense vs Murici SC 1-0 47% 56% -15.7 36% 36% -0.5 17% 21% -17.8
12.01.25 AA Coruripe vs ASA Arapiraca 0-0 21% 31% -32.1 29% 34% -14.1 50% 48% 4.3
12.01.25 CS Alagoano vs CS Esportivo 3-0 59% 66% -9.7 28% 28% 0.0 13% 18% -29.4
16.01.25 Murici SC vs AA Coruripe 2-2 40% 45% -11.6 36% 36% -0.7 24% 31% -23.0
17.01.25 ASA Arapiraca vs CRB Maceio 0-0 29% 38% -25.4 34% 36% -3.5 37% 38% -4.2
17.01.25 CS Esportivo vs SC Penedense 1-2 42% 47% -9.9 35% 35% -0.5 23% 31% -25.8
18.01.25 CS Alagoano vs Murici SC 2-0 72% 76% -5.4 21% 24% -13.5 7% 11% -34.8
19.01.25 ASA Arapiraca vs SC Penedense 1-1 52% 57% -8.3 33% 34% -4.1 15% 21% -28.2
19.01.25 CS Esportivo vs CRB Maceio 1-5 14% 21% -31.3 25% 29% -14.6 61% 62% -1.9
25.01.25 CRB Maceio vs CS Alagoano 2-3 45% 49% -7.8 33% 33% -0.3 22% 30% -28.2
26.01.25 Murici SC vs ASA Arapiraca 0-3 20% 29% -30.4 31% 36% -13.5 48% 47% 3.4
26.01.25 SC Penedense vs AA Coruripe 0-0 50% 52% -3.8 33% 36% -7.7 17% 25% -31.3
30.01.25 AA Coruripe vs CS Alagoano 1-1 15% 22% -32.7 30% 38% -21.2 55% 53% 5.1
30.01.25 CS Esportivo vs Murici SC 0-0 41% 43% -4.4 33% 33% -0.1 26% 37% -29.8
01.02.25 CS Alagoano vs ASA Arapiraca 0-0 44% 49% -9.3 37% 39% -5.0 19% 24% -24.1
01.02.25 CS Esportivo vs AA Coruripe 0-0 48% 49% -2.3 33% 35% -6.0 20% 29% -31.4
01.02.25 Murici SC vs CRB Maceio 0-0 12% 18% -32.6 22% 27% -17.8 66% 66% -1.1
08.02.25 ASA Arapiraca vs CS Esportivo 4-0 64% 67% -4.1 26% 29% -12.3 10% 15% -33.7
08.02.25 CRB Maceio vs AA Coruripe 5-0 72% 72% -1.2 20% 26% -22.2 8% 12% -36.3
08.02.25 SC Penedense vs CS Alagoano 2-0 21% 29% -25.1 35% 39% -9.5 43% 44% -3.0
15.02.25 CRB Maceio vs SC Penedense 2-0 65% 66% -2.0 25% 29% -15.8 10% 16% -35.2
16.02.25 ASA Arapiraca vs CS Alagoano 1-0 30% 35% -13.7 38% 39% -2.5 32% 38% -17.5
22.02.25 CS Alagoano vs ASA Arapiraca 1-0 55% 60% -9.2 29% 29% 0.6 17% 24% -30.5
23.02.25 SC Penedense vs CRB Maceio 1-3 26% 36% -28.2 31% 32% -3.9 43% 44% -3.4
08.03.25 ASA Arapiraca vs CRB Maceio 2-2 26% 35% -24.2 35% 36% -4.2 39% 42% -7.0
15.03.25 CRB Maceio vs ASA Arapiraca 2-1 57% 61% -5.4 30% 32% -8.0 13% 19% -31.8
03.04.25 CS Alagoano vs CS Esportivo 0-0 70% 74% -4.9 21% 24% -13.2 8% 13% -35.0
10.01.26 ASA Arapiraca vs Murici SC 0-0 73% 76% -4.3 20% 24% -16.7 7% 10% -35.2
10.01.26 CRB Maceio vs CS Esportivo 1-0 75% 78% -3.8 18% 22% -18.3 7% 11% -35.9
10.01.26 SC Penedense vs Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 1-0 40% 47% -14.4 36% 36% 0.7 24% 30% -20.0
11.01.26 CS Alagoano vs AA Coruripe 3-0 71% 73% -3.1 21% 26% -17.2 8% 12% -35.4
14.01.26 AA Coruripe vs CS Esportivo 1-1 34% 39% -14.6 37% 37% -0.8 30% 37% -19.7
15.01.26 Cruzeiro de Arapiraca vs ASA Arapiraca 2-4 9% 14% -36.1 18% 26% -30.4 73% 72% 1.9
15.01.26 CS Alagoano vs SC Penedense 2-0 69% 70% -2.7 22% 27% -17.4 9% 14% -35.8
16.01.26 CRB Maceio vs Murici SC 3-2 80% 85% -5.0 15% 18% -17.3 4% 7% -35.2
17.01.26 ASA Arapiraca vs CS Alagoano 0-0 43% 43% -2.1 37% 39% -6.8 21% 29% -29.0
18.01.26 CS Esportivo vs Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 1-2 56% 60% -5.8 29% 30% -4.9 15% 22% -32.0
18.01.26 Murici SC vs AA Coruripe 1-0 40% 45% -11.8 36% 37% -1.4 23% 30% -22.8
18.01.26 SC Penedense vs CRB Maceio 0-1 13% 20% -36.7 21% 31% -31.8 66% 61% 9.0
21.01.26 Murici SC vs CS Alagoano 0-1 13% 20% -33.5 25% 32% -21.0 61% 60% 1.6
21.01.26 SC Penedense vs CS Esportivo 0-2 38% 44% -14.8 36% 35% 2.1 26% 32% -18.4
22.01.26 ASA Arapiraca vs AA Coruripe 2-0 76% 78% -2.5 18% 23% -23.1 6% 10% -36.2
22.01.26 CRB Maceio vs Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 1-0 84% 88% -4.6 12% 15% -21.1 4% 6% -35.6
24.01.26 Cruzeiro de Arapiraca vs Murici SC 0-2 30% 35% -15.7 36% 36% 0.6 34% 42% -17.3
24.01.26 CS Alagoano vs CRB Maceio 1-1 20% 27% -25.0 35% 38% -9.7 45% 48% -5.0
25.01.26 AA Coruripe vs SC Penedense 1-1 30% 36% -17.9 37% 38% -1.8 33% 38% -14.0
25.01.26 CS Esportivo vs ASA Arapiraca 1-2 19% 28% -32.4 29% 35% -16.7 52% 50% 4.0
31.01.26 CRB Maceio vs ASA Arapiraca 0-3 51% 56% -7.5 33% 35% -5.6 16% 22% -29.3
31.01.26 Cruzeiro de Arapiraca vs AA Coruripe 2-1 35% 40% -12.9 37% 37% -0.5 28% 36% -20.6
01.02.26 CS Esportivo vs CS Alagoano 0-1 17% 24% -27.2 30% 32% -8.4 53% 56% -6.0
01.02.26 SC Penedense vs Murici SC 0-0 44% 47% -6.4 35% 36% -2.0 21% 29% -27.0
07.02.26 AA Coruripe vs CRB Maceio 2-1 9% 14% -36.9 17% 26% -34.4 74% 72% 3.5
07.02.26 ASA Arapiraca vs SC Penedense 2-0 72% 75% -3.7 20% 24% -17.8 8% 12% -35.7
07.02.26 CS Alagoano vs Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 2-0 81% 83% -3.1 14% 18% -23.6 5% 8% -35.9
07.02.26 Murici SC vs CS Esportivo 3-1 33% 37% -12.2 42% 44% -6.4 26% 31% -15.9
14.02.26 Murici SC vs ASA Arapiraca 0-0 14% 22% -34.6 25% 33% -23.9 60% 57% 5.7
19.02.26 CRB Maceio vs CS Alagoano 2-0 48% 51% -5.3 33% 34% -4.7 19% 28% -30.6
21.02.26 CS Alagoano vs CRB Maceio 1-1 30% 36% -16.7 36% 36% 0.4 34% 41% -17.0
22.02.26 ASA Arapiraca vs Murici SC 3-0 67% 68% -1.6 23% 28% -17.0 10% 15% -35.3
28.02.26 CRB Maceio vs ASA Arapiraca 0-3 54% 58% -7.2 33% 35% -6.2 13% 18% -28.1
07.03.26 ASA Arapiraca vs CRB Maceio 1-1 29% 40% -27.5 33% 35% -4.7 38% 38% -0.5

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 CRB Maceio 1911.77
2 CS Alagoano 1875.07
3 ASA Arapiraca 1804.22
4 SC Penedense 1554.84
5 Murici SC 1531.49
6 CS Esportivo 1500.26
7 AA Coruripe 1485.26
8 Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 1445.27

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 CRB Maceio 1800.53
2 CS Alagoano 1752.37
3 CS Esportivo 1751.03
4 ASA Arapiraca 1713.90
5 Murici SC 1505.01
6 AA Coruripe 1425.59
7 SC Penedense 1408.15
8 Cruzeiro de Arapiraca 1340.51