ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 146
Avg Goals 2.49
Avg Home 1.49
Avg Away 1.01
Home Win % 43.8%
Draw % 28.1%
Away Win % 28.1%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 146
Avg Brier Score 0.5582
Pick Accuracy 51.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5626
Market Brier 0.5617
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 146 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.9% 3.8% 26
10–20% 15.4% 9.8% 61
20–30% 26.0% 28.3% 145
30–40% 33.1% 33.3% 84
40–50% 44.8% 45.1% 51
50–60% 55.3% 46.4% 28
60–70% 64.4% 66.7% 21
70–80% 74.2% 83.3% 12
80–90% 83.6% 100.0% 8
90–100% 90.9% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
14.01.24 Bahia de Feira vs Jacobina EC 6-1 62% 68% -9.0 24% 26% -9.6 14% 17% -16.7
14.01.24 Itabuna EC vs Atletico Alagoinhas 1-2 40% 45% -11.6 31% 34% -9.9 29% 33% -13.8
17.01.24 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs SD Juazeirense 0-0 31% 35% -11.9 31% 34% -8.4 38% 43% -12.5
17.01.24 EC Jacuipense vs EC Vitoria Salvador 0-1 23% 29% -18.7 30% 33% -10.8 47% 51% -8.2
18.01.24 EC Bahia vs AD Jequie 0-1 61% 61% -0.6 22% 27% -17.6 17% 24% -29.5
20.01.24 AD Jequie vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 0-2 42% 43% -3.0 30% 34% -11.6 27% 34% -20.7
20.01.24 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Bahia de Feira 1-0 64% 71% -9.9 23% 24% -7.4 13% 15% -15.0
21.01.24 Atletico Alagoinhas vs EC Bahia 3-3 32% 38% -17.6 30% 32% -7.6 38% 42% -8.8
21.01.24 SD Juazeirense vs EC Jacuipense 2-1 45% 49% -7.4 30% 33% -10.8 25% 31% -18.4
24.01.24 EC Bahia vs Jacobina EC 5-0 88% 93% -5.0 8% 10% -18.1 4% 5% -28.8
24.01.24 Itabuna EC vs Bahia de Feira 1-1 28% 32% -12.4 30% 33% -8.6 41% 48% -13.3
25.01.24 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs EC Vitoria Salvador 2-1 22% 28% -20.7 29% 33% -11.7 49% 51% -5.3
25.01.24 SD Juazeirense vs AD Jequie 2-0 51% 55% -7.3 28% 31% -10.5 21% 26% -18.9
26.01.24 EC Jacuipense vs Atletico Alagoinhas 3-2 45% 53% -14.7 29% 31% -6.5 25% 28% -8.5
27.01.24 Bahia de Feira vs EC Bahia 0-2 17% 21% -18.0 26% 28% -7.8 57% 63% -9.8
27.01.24 Jacobina EC vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 1-0 20% 24% -15.9 28% 31% -8.7 52% 58% -10.2
28.01.24 AD Jequie vs Atletico Alagoinhas 2-0 33% 38% -13.7 30% 32% -6.8 37% 42% -11.5
28.01.24 EC Vitoria Salvador vs SD Juazeirense 3-0 58% 65% -10.1 25% 28% -8.9 17% 20% -16.4
29.01.24 Itabuna EC vs EC Jacuipense 3-1 39% 43% -11.2 28% 29% -4.6 33% 40% -16.7
31.01.24 EC Bahia vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 2-0 84% 88% -4.7 11% 15% -23.1 4% 6% -29.9
01.02.24 AD Jequie vs EC Vitoria Salvador 1-0 17% 21% -17.1 29% 32% -11.5 54% 58% -7.7
01.02.24 EC Jacuipense vs Bahia de Feira 1-0 38% 42% -10.4 30% 32% -7.6 32% 38% -15.8
02.02.24 SD Juazeirense vs Itabuna EC 1-1 55% 60% -7.4 26% 29% -9.7 19% 24% -19.9
03.02.24 Atletico Alagoinhas vs Jacobina EC 0-1 58% 61% -3.6 26% 30% -15.6 16% 21% -23.9
04.02.24 Bahia de Feira vs AD Jequie 2-2 54% 56% -3.9 27% 31% -13.7 19% 25% -23.4
04.02.24 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs EC Jacuipense 1-0 41% 48% -14.6 31% 34% -8.8 28% 31% -9.2
07.02.24 Atletico Alagoinhas vs SD Juazeirense 2-3 44% 53% -15.9 29% 31% -5.7 26% 28% -5.4
07.02.24 Jacobina EC vs EC Vitoria Salvador 0-0 10% 14% -24.0 21% 25% -14.3 68% 72% -6.0
08.02.24 EC Bahia vs Itabuna EC 5-0 81% 85% -4.7 13% 17% -21.3 6% 9% -30.0
14.02.24 Itabuna EC vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 0-1 28% 29% -1.8 30% 32% -6.3 42% 51% -17.4
15.02.24 Bahia de Feira vs Atletico Alagoinhas 1-2 45% 51% -9.9 29% 32% -8.6 25% 29% -14.9
17.02.24 EC Jacuipense vs AD Jequie 1-0 47% 51% -7.5 28% 31% -8.3 25% 31% -18.5
17.02.24 SD Juazeirense vs Jacobina EC 2-1 63% 66% -4.8 23% 26% -14.1 14% 19% -24.6
18.02.24 EC Vitoria Salvador vs EC Bahia 3-2 24% 31% -21.6 29% 32% -10.3 47% 49% -3.8
21.02.24 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs Bahia de Feira 1-0 46% 53% -11.9 29% 31% -7.5 25% 29% -13.4
22.02.24 AD Jequie vs Itabuna EC 2-1 49% 51% -4.9 29% 32% -11.5 23% 29% -20.6
24.02.24 EC Jacuipense vs Jacobina EC 1-2 57% 61% -6.3 25% 29% -11.9 17% 22% -21.9
25.02.24 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Atletico Alagoinhas 3-0 68% 75% -9.0 21% 23% -8.8 11% 14% -17.8
25.02.24 SD Juazeirense vs EC Bahia 1-2 16% 22% -27.6 23% 26% -13.6 61% 64% -4.0
03.03.24 Atletico Alagoinhas vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 1-0 40% 45% -12.1 30% 32% -8.0 30% 36% -15.0
03.03.24 Bahia de Feira vs SD Juazeirense 5-1 36% 43% -16.2 30% 32% -7.1 34% 37% -9.3
03.03.24 EC Bahia vs EC Jacuipense 2-0 81% 85% -4.6 13% 17% -21.6 6% 9% -30.1
03.03.24 Itabuna EC vs EC Vitoria Salvador 0-2 9% 12% -24.7 15% 15% -3.7 76% 83% -8.0
03.03.24 Jacobina EC vs AD Jequie 0-0 29% 33% -13.2 30% 32% -7.6 41% 48% -13.4
09.03.24 AD Jequie vs EC Bahia 0-1 12% 16% -26.6 21% 25% -15.1 67% 70% -4.8
10.03.24 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs EC Vitoria Salvador 0-2 22% 29% -22.0 29% 33% -12.4 49% 51% -5.4
16.03.24 EC Bahia vs AD Jequie 4-1 80% 84% -4.3 13% 17% -22.1 7% 10% -31.0
17.03.24 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 4-1 62% 66% -5.7 23% 27% -13.5 15% 19% -23.3
11.01.25 Atletico Alagoinhas vs Colo Colo FR Ilheus 2-2 64% 67% -4.3 22% 26% -15.2 14% 19% -26.3
11.01.25 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 0-0 60% 62% -4.3 24% 29% -14.8 16% 21% -24.6
12.01.25 AD Jequie vs SD Juazeirense 0-1 39% 43% -9.4 30% 33% -8.7 30% 36% -15.5
12.01.25 EC Jacuipense vs EC Bahia 0-0 39% 53% -26.7 28% 31% -7.7 33% 29% 15.5
12.01.25 Porto Sport Club BA vs Jacobina EC 2-0 50% 61% -17.9 28% 29% -4.0 22% 22% 1.3
14.01.25 Colo Colo FR Ilheus vs Porto Sport Club BA 0-0 26% 31% -18.3 30% 33% -10.1 45% 49% -8.8
15.01.25 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs AD Jequie 0-0 42% 45% -8.2 31% 34% -10.8 28% 33% -17.4
16.01.25 Jacobina EC vs EC Jacuipense 0-1 27% 36% -24.7 29% 33% -11.9 43% 43% -0.5
16.01.25 SD Juazeirense vs EC Vitoria Salvador 1-4 28% 33% -17.2 30% 33% -9.3 42% 47% -9.4
17.01.25 EC Bahia vs Atletico Alagoinhas 0-1 56% 60% -5.8 26% 29% -12.1 18% 23% -21.7
18.01.25 AD Jequie vs Colo Colo FR Ilheus 2-0 57% 54% 5.0 26% 34% -22.5 17% 24% -30.4
18.01.25 SD Juazeirense vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 0-0 47% 51% -8.9 31% 35% -12.0 22% 26% -14.9
19.01.25 EC Vitoria Salvador vs EC Jacuipense 1-1 64% 74% -13.6 23% 24% -3.1 13% 14% -6.3
19.01.25 Jacobina EC vs EC Bahia 1-1 16% 22% -26.0 25% 29% -14.7 59% 61% -3.0
21.01.25 Porto Sport Club BA vs Atletico Alagoinhas 1-1 44% 56% -20.0 30% 31% -5.5 26% 25% 4.2
22.01.25 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs Jacobina EC 2-2 60% 65% -6.4 26% 30% -15.1 14% 17% -20.3
25.01.25 Atletico Alagoinhas vs AD Jequie 0-0 41% 43% -6.0 30% 34% -10.6 29% 36% -19.4
25.01.25 Colo Colo FR Ilheus vs EC Vitoria Salvador 1-4 10% 13% -22.7 21% 24% -12.4 69% 74% -7.1
26.01.25 EC Bahia vs Porto Sport Club BA 2-0 82% 91% -9.7 13% 13% 1.1 5% 5% -5.8
26.01.25 EC Jacuipense vs SD Juazeirense 2-0 39% 47% -15.6 31% 34% -8.8 29% 31% -6.3
28.01.25 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs Atletico Alagoinhas 1-0 45% 50% -9.5 31% 34% -10.7 24% 28% -13.9
29.01.25 AD Jequie vs EC Bahia 1-3 13% 16% -21.2 24% 28% -12.7 63% 67% -5.9
30.01.25 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Jacobina EC 4-0 76% 81% -6.3 16% 19% -15.8 8% 11% -26.7
30.01.25 SD Juazeirense vs Porto Sport Club BA 0-2 47% 54% -12.9 28% 30% -6.2 25% 28% -11.7
31.01.25 EC Jacuipense vs Colo Colo FR Ilheus 1-0 60% 62% -3.4 25% 29% -16.3 15% 20% -24.9
01.02.25 EC Bahia vs EC Vitoria Salvador 0-0 52% 57% -9.5 28% 31% -9.5 20% 24% -16.2
02.02.25 Jacobina EC vs SD Juazeirense 0-2 28% 32% -14.2 31% 34% -9.1 42% 47% -10.8
02.02.25 Porto Sport Club BA vs AD Jequie 1-2 39% 42% -7.3 31% 34% -9.4 31% 37% -17.2
04.02.25 Colo Colo FR Ilheus vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 2-2 23% 27% -14.8 31% 34% -10.4 46% 51% -8.8
05.02.25 Atletico Alagoinhas vs EC Jacuipense 1-1 34% 38% -11.7 31% 33% -8.0 35% 41% -13.4
08.02.25 AD Jequie vs Jacobina EC 1-1 66% 70% -5.8 22% 26% -14.9 12% 15% -23.3
08.02.25 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Porto Sport Club BA 2-1 78% 85% -8.2 15% 17% -7.7 7% 8% -17.8
09.02.25 EC Bahia vs Colo Colo FR Ilheus 6-0 91% 94% -3.9 7% 10% -31.6 2% 3% -33.9
09.02.25 SD Juazeirense vs Atletico Alagoinhas 0-1 45% 48% -5.0 29% 33% -11.8 25% 32% -21.3
12.02.25 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs EC Jacuipense 1-1 34% 40% -14.3 31% 34% -8.8 34% 38% -9.2
15.02.25 Barcelona Ilheus BA vs EC Bahia 0-1 13% 18% -29.1 23% 28% -18.8 65% 65% -1.2
15.02.25 SD Juazeirense vs Colo Colo FR Ilheus 4-1 57% 58% -1.6 27% 32% -17.7 16% 22% -25.4
16.02.25 EC Vitoria Salvador vs AD Jequie 2-0 72% 78% -6.6 18% 21% -13.1 9% 12% -23.0
19.02.25 Jacobina EC vs Atletico Alagoinhas 0-3 25% 29% -16.5 31% 34% -9.9 45% 49% -8.0
20.02.25 EC Jacuipense vs Porto Sport Club BA 5-0 55% 61% -10.8 28% 31% -9.8 18% 20% -12.4
22.02.25 AD Jequie vs EC Jacuipense 1-2 36% 40% -9.6 31% 34% -9.5 33% 38% -15.3
22.02.25 Atletico Alagoinhas vs EC Vitoria Salvador 0-1 17% 22% -23.0 27% 31% -13.7 56% 59% -4.3
22.02.25 EC Bahia vs SD Juazeirense 2-0 67% 70% -3.9 21% 25% -17.3 12% 17% -27.2
22.02.25 Porto Sport Club BA vs Barcelona Ilheus BA 2-1 29% 34% -14.3 29% 31% -6.5 42% 48% -12.3
01.03.25 Atletico Alagoinhas vs EC Vitoria Salvador 0-4 15% 19% -22.8 25% 29% -12.7 60% 64% -5.2
01.03.25 EC Bahia vs EC Jacuipense 1-2 77% 83% -7.5 16% 18% -12.7 7% 9% -22.0
08.03.25 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Atletico Alagoinhas 3-0 72% 75% -3.5 18% 22% -18.6 10% 14% -28.3
09.03.25 EC Jacuipense vs EC Bahia 0-5 10% 13% -24.8 22% 27% -17.1 68% 72% -5.2
16.03.25 EC Bahia vs EC Vitoria Salvador 2-0 50% 57% -13.0 29% 32% -9.5 21% 24% -11.2
23.03.25 EC Vitoria Salvador vs EC Bahia 1-1 34% 39% -14.5 31% 33% -8.0 36% 40% -10.5
10.01.26 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Atletico Alagoinhas 0-0 54% 54% 0.3 27% 32% -17.4 19% 26% -27.2
10.01.26 Porto Sport Club BA vs EC Jacuipense 3-2 29% 32% -10.2 31% 34% -8.6 40% 47% -13.9
Showing the 100 most recent of 146 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 EC Bahia 1956.23
2 EC Vitoria Salvador 1838.53
3 AD Jequie 1690.04
4 SD Juazeirense 1668.79
5 Bahia de Feira 1633.90
6 EC Jacuipense 1601.07
7 Galicia EC 1548.60
8 Porto Sport Club BA 1547.01
9 Barcelona Ilheus BA 1492.68
10 Atletico Alagoinhas 1224.47

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 EC Bahia 1839.99
2 EC Vitoria Salvador 1749.03
3 AD Jequie 1625.95
4 SD Juazeirense 1560.60
5 Bahia de Feira 1542.14
6 Barcelona Ilheus BA 1522.78
7 EC Jacuipense 1516.12
8 Atletico Alagoinhas 1458.81
9 Galicia EC 1453.90
10 Porto Sport Club BA 1423.28