Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5

Countries 150

Status Live

Continent

Country

League

No cached league history dataset for this league yet.

Matches 41

Avg Goals 2.76

Avg Home 1.32

Avg Away 1.44

Home Win % 39.0%

Draw % 31.7%

Away Win % 29.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.

Home Team

Away Team

Margin %

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Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Value edge threshold (relative %)

Flat stake (units)

Market weight (0–1)

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…

Matches Backtested 41

Avg Brier Score 0.6384

Pick Accuracy 43.9%

Source postgres

Raw Model Brier 0.6555

Market Brier 0.6418

Blended Model Beats Market? Yes

Market Weight 0.7

"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.

Value Bets Found 15

Value Bet Hit Rate 20.0%

ROI (flat stake) 195.0%

ROI Trustworthy? Yes

Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 9 of 41 matches had at least one · staked 15.00, profit 29.25 units.

Side	Bets	Hit Rate	Staked	Profit	ROI
home	3	33.3%	3.00	26.00	866.7%
draw	7	28.6%	7.00	8.25	117.9%
away	5	0.0%	5.00	-5.00	-100.0%

Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.

Predicted Range	Predicted Avg	Actual Freq	Samples
0–10%	7.2%	16.7%	6
10–20%	15.5%	18.8%	16
20–30%	27.0%	34.9%	43
30–40%	34.7%	25.9%	27
40–50%	43.5%	35.3%	17
50–60%	56.8%	80.0%	5
70–80%	74.7%	42.9%	7
80–90%	81.6%	100.0%	2

Date	Match	Result	HOME (1)			DRAW (X)			AWAY (2)
Date	Match	Result	Model	Price	Edge	Model	Price	Edge	Model	Price	Edge
10.03.24	ADESG AC vs Independencia FC AC	0-0	39%	41%	-5.7	26%	28%	-6.0	35%	44%	-20.4
10.03.24	Rio Branco AC vs Vasco da Gama AC	2-0	71%	78%	-7.8	18%	20%	-9.4	10%	13%	-19.1
16.03.24	SC Humaita vs Nauas EC	4-0	80%	91%	-12.2	14%	12%	14.6	6%	5%	16.4
19.03.24	Vasco da Gama AC vs ADESG AC	2-1	9%	3%	152.0	16%	11%	38.6	75%	93%	-19.2
23.03.24	ADESG AC vs Rio Branco AC	1-1	26%	23%	13.7	25%	26%	-3.1	49%	63%	-23.1
27.03.24	SC Humaita vs Placido de Castro	1-0	76%	93%	-17.7	15%	11%	34.0	8%	5%	70.0
25.01.25	Galvez EC vs Placido de Castro	3-2	81%	94%	-14.4	14%	11%	22.3	6%	4%	47.2
28.01.25	Independencia FC AC vs Vasco da Gama AC	0-3	43%	43%	0.7	26%	29%	-10.4	31%	41%	-24.5
01.02.25	Independencia FC AC vs Rio Branco AC	3-0	34%	39%	-12.8	29%	31%	-8.4	37%	42%	-10.8
02.02.25	Galvez EC vs SC Humaita	2-2	39%	37%	4.6	26%	29%	-8.4	35%	47%	-24.6
02.02.25	Vasco da Gama AC vs Sao Francisco FC Rio Branco	1-0	57%	71%	-19.6	23%	22%	4.3	20%	18%	9.5
08.02.25	Rio Branco AC vs ADESG AC	0-1	45%	49%	-6.8	27%	30%	-10.2	27%	34%	-19.5
08.02.25	Vasco da Gama AC vs Galvez EC	1-0	42%	47%	-10.5	27%	29%	-5.6	31%	36%	-13.6
09.02.25	Independencia FC AC vs Sao Francisco FC Rio Branco	5-0	59%	75%	-21.1	22%	21%	6.3	19%	15%	20.4
09.02.25	SC Humaita vs Placido de Castro	1-1	76%	91%	-16.1	15%	12%	28.4	9%	6%	37.3
15.02.25	Independencia FC AC vs ADESG AC	1-1	41%	44%	-8.1	28%	30%	-8.9	32%	38%	-18.0
15.02.25	Vasco da Gama AC vs SC Humaita	2-1	41%	47%	-11.7	28%	30%	-8.4	31%	36%	-14.3
16.02.25	Rio Branco AC vs Galvez EC	1-6	38%	41%	-7.7	28%	30%	-8.2	35%	42%	-17.2
22.02.25	SC Humaita vs Rio Branco AC	3-2	44%	49%	-10.4	28%	31%	-8.4	28%	32%	-12.8
23.02.25	Placido de Castro vs Vasco da Gama AC	1-1	10%	9%	12.5	17%	15%	13.6	73%	86%	-15.4
25.02.25	Galvez EC vs Independencia FC AC	0-0	40%	44%	-9.2	27%	29%	-6.7	33%	40%	-17.6
08.03.25	ADESG AC vs Vasco da Gama AC	0-2	29%	29%	0.5	25%	26%	-1.5	46%	57%	-19.4
09.03.25	Placido de Castro vs Rio Branco AC	0-5	20%	22%	-10.2	25%	26%	-6.4	56%	65%	-13.4
11.03.25	SC Humaita vs Independencia FC AC	0-0	34%	36%	-6.4	30%	33%	-10.8	36%	43%	-16.6
16.03.25	ADESG AC vs Galvez EC	3-2	39%	42%	-6.8	26%	28%	-5.2	35%	43%	-18.1
28.09.25	Santa Cruz Acre EC AC vs Atletico Acreano	1-1	58%	61%	-3.6	22%	26%	-12.5	19%	26%	-25.3
15.01.26	Independencia FC AC vs Santa Cruz Acre EC AC	2-2	30%	32%	-6.5	29%	32%	-9.9	41%	49%	-16.4
17.01.26	Vasco da Gama AC vs Rio Branco AC	2-3	45%	49%	-7.4	27%	30%	-9.5	27%	33%	-17.9
24.01.26	Independencia FC AC vs Sao Francisco FC Rio Branco	0-1	71%	81%	-13.1	19%	18%	2.7	11%	11%	1.0
29.01.26	Independencia FC AC vs SC Humaita	0-3	43%	43%	0.2	28%	32%	-12.5	29%	38%	-22.8
30.01.26	Sao Francisco FC Rio Branco vs Rio Branco AC	0-6	20%	22%	-6.1	26%	29%	-7.6	53%	62%	-14.4
31.01.26	Santa Cruz Acre EC AC vs Vasco da Gama AC	1-0	33%	31%	8.2	29%	33%	-11.9	37%	49%	-23.4
03.02.26	Rio Branco AC vs Independencia FC AC	2-1	47%	51%	-7.5	28%	31%	-11.3	25%	30%	-18.0
05.02.26	SC Humaita vs Vasco da Gama AC	0-0	40%	47%	-13.1	28%	30%	-8.1	32%	36%	-12.8
10.02.26	Vasco da Gama AC vs Independencia FC AC	1-3	46%	50%	-8.4	27%	30%	-9.5	27%	32%	-17.0
13.02.26	Santa Cruz Acre EC AC vs Sao Francisco FC Rio Branco	5-0	82%	92%	-10.2	12%	11%	11.0	6%	6%	-1.3
24.02.26	Rio Branco AC vs Santa Cruz Acre EC AC	0-3	29%	29%	-1.7	29%	32%	-9.7	42%	51%	-18.2
07.03.26	SC Humaita vs Rio Branco AC	1-1	45%	53%	-15.7	29%	31%	-8.7	26%	28%	-4.9
14.03.26	Santa Cruz Acre EC AC vs SC Humaita	0-0	38%	38%	-0.9	29%	33%	-11.7	32%	41%	-20.5
19.03.26	SC Humaita vs Santa Cruz Acre EC AC	2-1	40%	43%	-6.6	30%	33%	-11.4	31%	37%	-17.1
22.03.26	Rio Branco AC vs Santa Cruz Acre EC AC	0-3	33%	33%	-2.3	29%	31%	-8.5	39%	48%	-18.4

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Home Ratings

8 teams

Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank	Team	Rating
1	Independencia FC AC	1496.24
2	Rio Branco AC	1471.30
3	Santa Cruz Acre EC AC	1391.49
4	ADESG AC	1390.74
5	Vasco da Gama AC	1351.11
6	Galvez EC	1343.59
7	Sao Francisco FC Rio Branco	1239.91
8	SC Humaita	1158.01

Away Ratings

8 teams

Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank	Team	Rating
1	Santa Cruz Acre EC AC	1533.27
2	Galvez EC	1394.40
3	Independencia FC AC	1381.29
4	Vasco da Gama AC	1365.16
5	Rio Branco AC	1358.21
6	ADESG AC	1334.05
7	SC Humaita	1174.34
8	Sao Francisco FC Rio Branco	1032.04