ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 80
Avg Goals 2.65
Avg Home 1.44
Avg Away 1.21
Home Win % 37.5%
Draw % 23.8%
Away Win % 38.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 80
Avg Brier Score 0.5458
Pick Accuracy 57.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5542
Market Brier 0.5486
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 75.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 80 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit -4.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 5.6% 0.0% 17
10–20% 15.1% 17.1% 41
20–30% 24.5% 23.5% 81
30–40% 35.2% 39.4% 33
40–50% 45.3% 47.4% 19
50–60% 54.6% 44.4% 18
60–70% 65.2% 85.7% 14
70–80% 74.2% 57.1% 7
80–90% 83.4% 71.4% 7
90–100% 92.9% 100.0% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.08.23 Independente EC AP vs Trem AP 3-3 38% 43% -13.4 25% 29% -15.4 37% 40% -6.3
04.02.24 Independente EC AP vs Sao Paulo Macapa FC 4-1 84% 93% -9.6 9% 8% 6.7 7% 7% -0.6
08.02.24 Santana EC vs Ypiranga AP 1-1 26% 34% -24.0 22% 26% -17.5 53% 53% -0.2
09.02.24 Trem AP vs EC Macapa AP 1-0 79% 87% -9.3 14% 15% -11.2 7% 7% 0.6
16.02.24 Trem AP vs Santana EC 5-0 69% 72% -4.8 17% 21% -17.8 14% 17% -20.2
17.02.24 EC Macapa AP vs Oratorio 1-2 22% 27% -17.4 22% 27% -16.1 55% 58% -4.8
18.02.24 Ypiranga AP vs Sao Paulo Macapa FC 1-0 73% 87% -16.4 15% 14% 6.0 12% 8% 52.2
24.02.24 Oratorio vs Santana EC 2-0 77% 82% -6.3 14% 17% -17.5 9% 12% -19.9
25.02.24 Independente EC AP vs Ypiranga AP 3-0 60% 62% -2.5 21% 26% -19.3 19% 24% -21.5
02.03.24 Sao Paulo Macapa FC vs Oratorio 1-2 5% 8% -28.6 12% 15% -25.2 83% 86% -3.7
02.03.24 Ypiranga AP vs Trem AP 0-1 18% 20% -12.2 22% 26% -15.9 61% 66% -8.1
03.03.24 EC Macapa AP vs Independente EC AP 1-2 14% 15% -9.9 17% 19% -10.1 69% 76% -9.6
07.03.24 EC Macapa AP vs Santana EC 1-2 48% 52% -7.7 22% 24% -11.7 31% 36% -14.3
08.03.24 Oratorio vs Ypiranga AP 0-1 65% 72% -10.6 20% 23% -13.9 16% 17% -6.0
12.03.24 Independente EC AP vs Trem AP 1-0 38% 36% 4.5 25% 29% -16.2 37% 47% -19.6
16.03.24 Santos AP vs Sao Paulo Macapa FC 0-0 74% 74% 0.6 13% 19% -29.3 13% 19% -34.0
19.03.24 Oratorio vs Santos AP 1-1 58% 65% -11.9 22% 26% -14.0 20% 21% -3.3
22.03.24 Ypiranga AP vs Santos AP 0-1 39% 44% -12.0 26% 31% -16.2 35% 36% -4.5
23.03.24 Trem AP vs Oratorio 2-0 53% 63% -16.4 23% 27% -13.0 24% 22% 7.5
27.03.24 Santana EC vs Independente EC AP 1-1 6% 6% -3.1 12% 12% -6.6 82% 90% -8.9
28.03.24 Santos AP vs EC Macapa AP 1-3 72% 79% -9.1 17% 21% -16.2 10% 11% -6.3
29.03.24 Sao Paulo Macapa FC vs Trem AP 1-3 4% 4% -14.9 9% 11% -15.5 87% 93% -6.1
04.07.24 Oratorio vs Independente EC AP 0-0 19% 21% -7.5 23% 27% -15.2 58% 65% -9.9
10.07.24 Independente EC AP vs Oratorio 2-3 51% 50% 2.0 26% 34% -22.4 23% 29% -20.6
18.07.24 Oratorio vs Trem AP 0-1 15% 18% -17.2 22% 27% -19.3 63% 66% -4.0
25.07.24 Trem AP vs Oratorio 2-1 56% 58% -3.0 23% 29% -20.6 20% 25% -19.2
09.03.25 Independente EC AP vs Santana EC 3-1 84% 86% -3.0 10% 15% -29.5 6% 9% -32.1
12.03.25 Santos AP vs Ypiranga AP 1-0 48% 53% -9.8 26% 32% -18.0 26% 27% -5.4
14.03.25 CA Cristal AP vs Trem AP 1-1 10% 8% 31.4 17% 17% -4.1 73% 85% -13.6
15.03.25 Ypiranga AP vs Oratorio 1-2 30% 31% -5.4 26% 30% -15.7 45% 51% -11.1
18.03.25 Independente EC AP vs Santos AP 2-0 57% 55% 3.7 23% 29% -23.4 20% 28% -26.2
22.03.25 Portuguesa AP vs Santos AP 1-2 17% 14% 20.2 21% 23% -9.4 62% 74% -16.4
22.03.25 Ypiranga AP vs CA Cristal AP 1-0 55% 57% -3.6 23% 29% -19.4 22% 27% -18.9
23.03.25 Oratorio vs Independente EC AP 0-2 27% 29% -6.9 27% 32% -17.7 47% 52% -9.6
25.03.25 Trem AP vs Ypiranga AP 3-0 68% 70% -3.5 20% 26% -22.7 12% 15% -20.6
28.03.25 Santos AP vs Santana EC 4-0 92% 98% -6.0 6% 6% -12.3 2% 2% -10.6
29.03.25 Independente EC AP vs CA Cristal AP 2-2 82% 85% -3.0 13% 18% -29.1 5% 7% -28.8
01.04.25 Oratorio vs Portuguesa AP 1-1 59% 58% 2.7 22% 29% -25.0 19% 26% -27.5
02.04.25 Santos AP vs Trem AP 1-2 29% 33% -13.1 26% 31% -17.6 45% 49% -7.2
04.04.25 Ypiranga AP vs Independente EC AP 0-0 14% 17% -21.0 20% 26% -20.6 66% 68% -3.8
05.04.25 Santana EC vs Oratorio 1-4 2% 3% -24.8 5% 6% -16.7 93% 98% -4.8
06.04.25 CA Cristal AP vs Portuguesa AP 1-0 40% 42% -3.5 27% 32% -17.7 33% 38% -13.6
09.04.25 Independente EC AP vs Trem AP 0-2 38% 38% -0.7 26% 31% -17.0 36% 43% -15.8
11.04.25 Oratorio vs Santos AP 1-0 37% 37% -0.6 27% 32% -17.7 37% 43% -15.7
12.04.25 Portuguesa AP vs Ypiranga AP 0-0 24% 26% -9.4 23% 27% -14.4 53% 59% -9.8
19.04.25 Santos AP vs CA Cristal AP 1-3 58% 60% -2.0 24% 30% -22.3 18% 23% -20.2
24.04.25 Santos AP vs Trem AP 1-1 20% 21% -3.6 23% 26% -13.9 57% 65% -11.6
26.04.25 Independente EC AP vs Oratorio 0-2 42% 40% 5.3 27% 33% -19.5 31% 38% -19.3
03.05.25 Independente EC AP vs Oratorio 2-0 47% 47% 1.4 26% 32% -20.3 27% 34% -19.9
10.05.25 Trem AP vs Oratorio 1-0 47% 51% -7.4 26% 31% -17.9 27% 30% -11.3
17.05.25 Oratorio vs Trem AP 1-1 30% 34% -11.4 27% 32% -17.7 43% 47% -6.7
07.02.26 Trem AP vs EC Macapa AP 1-0 82% 88% -7.6 12% 13% -12.2 7% 7% -8.7
13.02.26 Santos AP vs Sao Jose AP 1-2 39% 44% -13.0 25% 29% -15.1 36% 38% -5.5
14.02.26 CA Cristal AP vs Independente EC AP 0-3 16% 21% -23.8 20% 26% -20.8 64% 65% -2.3
14.02.26 Oratorio vs Trem AP 3-0 35% 38% -8.9 28% 34% -18.7 37% 40% -7.6
20.02.26 Santos AP vs CA Cristal AP 2-1 53% 55% -3.1 24% 29% -18.6 23% 28% -16.8
21.02.26 Independente EC AP vs Oratorio 3-0 39% 36% 6.2 31% 40% -22.0 30% 36% -15.4
21.02.26 Sao Jose AP vs Trem AP 2-1 25% 28% -11.2 24% 29% -15.6 51% 56% -7.8
22.02.26 CA Cristal AP vs EC Macapa AP 1-2 47% 51% -8.1 25% 29% -16.6 28% 32% -12.2
24.02.26 Ypiranga AP vs Santos AP 2-3 36% 43% -14.7 28% 34% -18.7 36% 36% -0.1
27.02.26 Trem AP vs Independente EC AP 1-1 26% 29% -13.0 25% 31% -17.6 49% 53% -6.8
28.02.26 Oratorio vs Santos AP 1-3 48% 52% -8.3 26% 32% -18.3 26% 29% -8.6
28.02.26 Sao Jose AP vs CA Cristal AP 2-1 66% 70% -5.5 20% 24% -19.6 14% 17% -17.9
01.03.26 EC Macapa AP vs Ypiranga AP 0-1 33% 40% -18.4 26% 31% -17.3 42% 41% 1.8
03.03.26 Trem AP vs CA Cristal AP 3-1 72% 77% -7.0 18% 22% -19.3 11% 13% -15.6
06.03.26 Independente EC AP vs Santos AP 2-2 50% 49% 2.0 25% 31% -20.5 25% 32% -21.3
07.03.26 Oratorio vs EC Macapa AP 3-0 68% 72% -6.2 20% 24% -19.8 13% 15% -15.8
07.03.26 Ypiranga AP vs Sao Jose AP 0-1 29% 34% -14.3 26% 31% -17.5 45% 48% -5.1
08.03.26 Santos AP vs Trem AP 1-1 32% 36% -12.0 27% 33% -18.4 41% 43% -6.2
10.03.26 EC Macapa AP vs Independente EC AP 1-3 13% 16% -20.2 18% 22% -18.5 69% 74% -6.0
11.03.26 CA Cristal AP vs Ypiranga AP 0-2 25% 22% 11.9 22% 24% -9.4 54% 66% -18.6
12.03.26 Sao Jose AP vs Oratorio 1-2 33% 34% -4.1 27% 33% -18.2 40% 45% -12.7
14.03.26 Oratorio vs CA Cristal AP 4-1 93% 98% -4.9 5% 6% -21.8 2% 2% -23.7
15.03.26 Santos AP vs EC Macapa AP 5-0 63% 67% -6.0 21% 26% -18.7 16% 19% -15.6
16.03.26 Trem AP vs Ypiranga AP 5-0 52% 56% -8.0 25% 30% -18.1 23% 26% -10.8
21.03.26 Independente EC AP vs Sao Jose AP 2-2 50% 50% 0.2 25% 32% -21.3 24% 31% -20.4
21.03.26 Santos AP vs Oratorio 1-1 38% 41% -7.5 27% 33% -17.9 35% 38% -9.2
24.03.26 Sao Jose AP vs Independente EC AP 2-2 30% 33% -9.2 26% 31% -16.6 44% 48% -8.3
25.03.26 Oratorio vs Santos AP 1-2 42% 45% -7.8 27% 32% -17.7 32% 35% -10.1
28.03.26 Sao Jose AP vs Santos AP 0-4 33% 33% -2.0 27% 33% -17.6 40% 45% -12.2

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Trem AP 1583.00
2 Independente EC AP 1562.30
3 Santos AP 1465.94
4 Oratorio 1462.10
5 Ypiranga AP 1441.27
6 Portuguesa AP 1151.72
7 CA Cristal AP 1113.41
8 Santana EC 1046.69

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Independente EC AP 1547.54
2 Santos AP 1500.07
3 Trem AP 1446.74
4 Ypiranga AP 1375.28
5 Oratorio 1370.17
6 Portuguesa AP 1290.35
7 Santana EC 1000.90
8 CA Cristal AP 856.58