ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 144
Avg Goals 2.52
Avg Home 1.41
Avg Away 1.11
Home Win % 47.2%
Draw % 18.8%
Away Win % 34.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 144
Avg Brier Score 0.4526
Pick Accuracy 68.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4423
Market Brier 0.4540
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 6
Value Bet Hit Rate 33.3%
ROI (flat stake) 154.2%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 83.3% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 6 of 144 matches had at least one · staked 6.00, profit 9.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 5 20.0% 5.00 1.75 35.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 100.0% 1.00 7.50 750.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.8% 2.8% 36
10–20% 15.6% 6.1% 82
20–30% 25.9% 20.1% 139
30–40% 33.6% 33.3% 45
40–50% 44.2% 58.5% 41
50–60% 55.5% 73.1% 26
60–70% 64.0% 66.7% 30
70–80% 74.3% 95.2% 21
80–90% 84.3% 100.0% 11
90–100% 94.3% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
13.01.24 Real Brasilia FC vs Ceilandia EC 0-1 31% 34% -9.6 28% 31% -9.8 41% 48% -13.6
13.01.24 SE do Gama vs Planaltina EC DF 2-0 69% 81% -14.8 19% 19% 2.0 11% 11% 7.7
14.01.24 Brasiliense FC vs SE Ceilandense 5-1 73% 80% -8.4 18% 20% -11.6 9% 11% -16.4
14.01.24 Paranoa EC vs Capital CF 0-0 25% 26% -1.7 28% 31% -9.1 47% 56% -15.7
14.01.24 SE Santa Maria vs Samambaia DF 2-1 17% 15% 15.2 22% 22% 1.6 61% 75% -18.5
20.01.24 Ceilandia EC vs Brasiliense FC 2-1 34% 35% -4.0 30% 33% -11.4 37% 44% -17.2
20.01.24 Planaltina EC DF vs Real Brasilia FC 1-1 14% 16% -10.3 23% 27% -12.4 62% 68% -9.0
20.01.24 Samambaia DF vs Paranoa EC 1-2 38% 39% -4.3 29% 32% -10.6 34% 41% -17.6
21.01.24 Capital CF vs SE do Gama 1-0 47% 50% -6.6 29% 33% -13.4 24% 29% -16.9
27.01.24 Paranoa EC vs SE Ceilandense 4-3 56% 62% -9.9 24% 26% -8.4 20% 23% -15.3
27.01.24 SE do Gama vs Samambaia DF 2-1 63% 71% -11.9 22% 23% -5.1 15% 17% -11.1
28.01.24 Planaltina EC DF vs Ceilandia EC 0-3 14% 16% -14.3 23% 27% -14.9 63% 68% -7.6
28.01.24 Real Brasilia FC vs Capital CF 0-3 27% 27% 0.2 30% 33% -11.5 43% 53% -17.5
28.01.24 SE Santa Maria vs Brasiliense FC 0-1 4% 3% 25.6 10% 10% 9.3 85% 95% -10.5
03.02.24 Brasiliense FC vs Paranoa EC 0-0 62% 66% -6.4 22% 26% -12.4 16% 20% -20.4
03.02.24 Ceilandia EC vs SE Santa Maria 6-0 83% 89% -6.5 12% 14% -14.4 5% 6% -19.4
04.02.24 Capital CF vs Planaltina EC DF 4-0 80% 88% -8.2 14% 16% -12.0 5% 6% -13.0
04.02.24 SE Ceilandense vs SE do Gama 0-1 22% 25% -10.4 35% 43% -18.9 42% 43% -2.6
06.02.24 Samambaia DF vs Real Brasilia FC 3-0 37% 42% -11.8 28% 31% -8.8 35% 39% -11.5
08.02.24 Capital CF vs Ceilandia EC 5-1 41% 45% -9.4 29% 32% -10.1 30% 34% -12.1
08.02.24 Paranoa EC vs SE Santa Maria 1-0 80% 88% -9.2 13% 13% -0.0 7% 9% -13.9
08.02.24 Planaltina EC DF vs Samambaia DF 0-1 13% 13% -3.5 21% 22% -6.7 66% 75% -11.7
08.02.24 SE do Gama vs Brasiliense FC 2-0 31% 35% -10.5 30% 33% -11.5 39% 44% -11.6
09.02.24 Real Brasilia FC vs SE Ceilandense 4-1 43% 44% -3.9 27% 29% -9.3 31% 38% -20.4
14.02.24 Brasiliense FC vs Real Brasilia FC 1-0 66% 71% -6.9 21% 25% -14.2 12% 15% -18.6
15.02.24 Samambaia DF vs Capital CF 0-1 12% 9% 29.0 20% 20% 1.8 68% 81% -16.5
17.02.24 Ceilandia EC vs Paranoa EC 1-1 49% 55% -10.2 27% 31% -10.7 23% 27% -13.3
18.02.24 SE Santa Maria vs SE do Gama 0-5 4% 4% -3.9 11% 13% -11.0 84% 91% -7.2
24.02.24 Samambaia DF vs Ceilandia EC 0-3 23% 23% -0.3 26% 28% -6.7 51% 62% -16.7
24.02.24 SE do Gama vs Paranoa EC 2-0 51% 57% -10.8 27% 30% -10.6 22% 25% -12.3
25.02.24 Capital CF vs SE Ceilandense 3-0 83% 90% -7.8 12% 13% -11.5 5% 6% -18.1
25.02.24 Planaltina EC DF vs Brasiliense FC 0-3 6% 7% -13.3 13% 15% -11.4 80% 88% -8.3
25.02.24 Real Brasilia FC vs SE Santa Maria 1-0 75% 81% -7.2 16% 18% -13.0 9% 11% -21.3
02.03.24 Paranoa EC vs Real Brasilia FC 2-1 55% 62% -10.4 26% 29% -10.8 18% 21% -11.3
02.03.24 SE Ceilandense vs Samambaia DF 0-0 27% 29% -3.9 28% 30% -8.7 45% 53% -16.1
02.03.24 SE do Gama vs Ceilandia EC 1-1 39% 42% -8.4 30% 34% -12.6 31% 36% -14.2
03.03.24 Brasiliense FC vs Capital CF 1-0 32% 35% -8.8 30% 33% -10.9 38% 43% -11.9
10.03.24 Brasiliense FC vs Samambaia DF 3-1 72% 79% -9.6 19% 21% -9.9 10% 11% -12.1
10.03.24 Capital CF vs SE Santa Maria 7-1 94% 99% -4.8 4% 5% -22.7 2% 2% -28.2
10.03.24 Ceilandia EC vs SE Ceilandense 2-0 76% 85% -9.9 16% 17% -5.1 8% 9% -9.5
10.03.24 Paranoa EC vs Planaltina EC DF 3-0 69% 74% -6.2 19% 23% -14.9 11% 14% -21.7
10.03.24 Real Brasilia FC vs SE do Gama 2-2 25% 28% -9.2 28% 31% -10.3 47% 54% -12.7
16.03.24 SE do Gama vs Ceilandia EC 0-0 41% 45% -10.3 30% 33% -11.5 30% 34% -12.3
22.03.24 Brasiliense FC vs Capital CF 1-3 42% 49% -14.1 29% 32% -10.2 29% 31% -6.8
23.03.24 Ceilandia EC vs SE do Gama 4-3 42% 47% -9.7 30% 34% -12.2 28% 32% -12.5
24.03.24 Capital CF vs Brasiliense FC 3-2 42% 48% -11.3 28% 30% -8.7 30% 34% -12.7
18.01.25 Ceilandia EC vs Real Brasilia FC 1-0 62% 68% -8.3 24% 27% -12.9 14% 17% -15.6
18.01.25 Paranoa EC vs Legiao FC DF 2-0 57% 65% -13.5 24% 26% -4.7 19% 20% -4.9
18.01.25 SE do Gama vs Sobradinho 0-0 61% 62% -2.4 22% 27% -16.4 17% 23% -26.0
19.01.25 Brasiliense FC vs Samambaia DF 2-1 79% 86% -8.8 15% 17% -9.1 6% 7% -9.5
19.01.25 Capital CF vs SE Ceilandense 4-1 79% 87% -9.1 15% 16% -6.9 6% 6% -6.1
25.01.25 Legiao FC DF vs SE do Gama 0-3 9% 6% 34.9 20% 20% -2.2 72% 83% -13.9
25.01.25 Real Brasilia FC vs Brasiliense FC 0-3 15% 16% -9.1 23% 26% -11.7 62% 69% -10.4
25.01.25 SE Ceilandense vs Ceilandia EC 0-2 9% 8% 3.4 18% 20% -8.1 73% 82% -10.9
26.01.25 Samambaia DF vs Capital CF 1-0 13% 14% -8.1 21% 24% -10.7 66% 74% -10.8
26.01.25 Sobradinho vs Paranoa EC 0-1 46% 56% -16.5 28% 31% -9.4 25% 26% -1.4
29.01.25 Capital CF vs Real Brasilia FC 2-0 73% 80% -8.6 18% 21% -12.8 9% 10% -14.7
29.01.25 Ceilandia EC vs Sobradinho 1-0 56% 58% -4.0 26% 31% -16.4 18% 23% -21.8
29.01.25 Paranoa EC vs Samambaia DF 2-0 44% 50% -12.4 28% 31% -9.6 28% 32% -12.0
30.01.25 Brasiliense FC vs Legiao FC DF 3-0 84% 89% -5.5 11% 14% -19.7 4% 5% -23.2
30.01.25 SE do Gama vs SE Ceilandense 1-0 75% 82% -8.4 16% 18% -10.0 9% 10% -16.5
01.02.25 SE Ceilandense vs Real Brasilia FC 1-1 25% 27% -7.6 28% 31% -10.4 47% 54% -13.0
01.02.25 SE do Gama vs Paranoa EC 1-0 55% 60% -7.9 27% 31% -13.1 18% 22% -15.2
01.02.25 Sobradinho vs Capital CF 1-1 18% 20% -11.3 24% 26% -10.0 59% 66% -11.0
02.02.25 Ceilandia EC vs Brasiliense FC 0-1 32% 34% -6.0 29% 32% -9.8 39% 45% -14.1
02.02.25 Legiao FC DF vs Samambaia DF 0-4 17% 14% 16.6 23% 23% -0.1 61% 74% -18.1
08.02.25 Paranoa EC vs Ceilandia EC 1-2 28% 31% -10.5 31% 35% -12.9 41% 45% -8.8
08.02.25 Samambaia DF vs SE do Gama 0-1 24% 24% 0.2 28% 31% -9.5 47% 56% -15.9
09.02.25 Brasiliense FC vs SE Ceilandense 2-0 87% 94% -7.3 9% 10% -4.5 3% 4% -10.6
09.02.25 Capital CF vs Legiao FC DF 1-0 89% 94% -5.8 8% 10% -18.4 3% 4% -23.6
09.02.25 Real Brasilia FC vs Sobradinho 1-3 31% 32% -3.2 29% 32% -10.1 40% 48% -16.5
12.02.25 Samambaia DF vs Sobradinho 1-0 44% 49% -9.8 29% 32% -10.9 27% 31% -12.8
12.02.25 SE Ceilandense vs Paranoa EC 3-4 17% 19% -9.0 27% 31% -13.8 56% 61% -9.2
13.02.25 Legiao FC DF vs Ceilandia EC 1-2 9% 9% 3.8 20% 23% -10.1 70% 79% -10.9
13.02.25 SE do Gama vs Real Brasilia FC 1-0 70% 78% -9.2 20% 23% -11.4 9% 11% -10.2
15.02.25 Paranoa EC vs Capital CF 1-2 18% 21% -13.9 24% 28% -12.2 58% 64% -9.4
16.02.25 Sobradinho vs Brasiliense FC 0-0 14% 17% -14.5 23% 27% -14.6 63% 68% -7.9
17.02.25 Ceilandia EC vs SE do Gama 2-0 30% 31% -1.0 37% 45% -18.3 32% 36% -10.9
17.02.25 Real Brasilia FC vs Samambaia DF 1-1 27% 29% -8.0 29% 32% -11.2 44% 51% -13.7
22.02.25 Paranoa EC vs Real Brasilia FC 2-1 62% 69% -11.3 24% 26% -9.6 15% 16% -8.9
22.02.25 Samambaia DF vs SE Ceilandense 0-1 63% 68% -7.7 22% 26% -12.4 15% 18% -18.7
23.02.25 Brasiliense FC vs SE do Gama 2-0 43% 45% -6.4 30% 34% -13.6 28% 33% -17.0
23.02.25 Capital CF vs Ceilandia EC 4-1 54% 58% -7.0 27% 31% -14.2 19% 23% -17.4
23.02.25 Sobradinho vs Legiao FC DF 2-0 62% 68% -9.1 22% 25% -10.4 16% 19% -17.4
27.02.25 Capital CF vs Brasiliense FC 3-0 41% 44% -7.3 33% 40% -16.5 25% 29% -11.1
08.03.25 Brasiliense FC vs Paranoa EC 2-0 59% 65% -8.7 24% 27% -9.8 17% 20% -14.7
08.03.25 Ceilandia EC vs Samambaia DF 1-1 56% 62% -9.1 24% 27% -9.4 19% 23% -15.9
08.03.25 Real Brasilia FC vs Legiao FC DF 2-1 63% 71% -12.1 22% 23% -4.8 16% 17% -10.6
08.03.25 SE do Gama vs Capital CF 0-0 42% 47% -10.5 29% 32% -11.1 30% 34% -13.9
15.03.25 SE do Gama vs Brasiliense FC 3-0 41% 43% -6.2 30% 35% -13.2 29% 34% -15.9
16.03.25 Ceilandia EC vs Capital CF 1-1 31% 35% -10.6 30% 34% -12.5 39% 43% -11.1
22.03.25 Capital CF vs Ceilandia EC 2-1 52% 58% -9.7 28% 32% -12.8 20% 22% -11.5
26.03.25 Brasiliense FC vs SE do Gama 0-0 50% 57% -13.0 28% 31% -10.2 22% 24% -6.6
29.03.25 Capital CF vs SE do Gama 1-1 45% 50% -10.4 30% 33% -11.5 26% 29% -10.1
10.01.26 Brasiliense FC vs Brasilia FC 4-0 69% 74% -7.4 20% 23% -12.9 11% 14% -18.1
10.01.26 Ceilandia EC vs Sobradinho 1-1 51% 54% -6.4 29% 33% -14.4 21% 25% -16.5
10.01.26 Paranoa EC vs ARUC DF 0-1 66% 78% -15.3 21% 21% 1.1 13% 12% 11.3
10.01.26 SE do Gama vs Real Brasilia FC 1-0 71% 79% -9.6 19% 22% -10.7 9% 11% -10.9
11.01.26 Capital CF vs Samambaia DF 2-2 59% 66% -10.8 25% 29% -10.9 16% 17% -8.9
17.01.26 ARUC DF vs Capital CF 0-3 11% 13% -14.4 19% 22% -13.3 70% 76% -8.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 144 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 SE do Gama 1828.98
2 Capital CF 1821.96
3 Brasiliense FC 1766.93
4 Ceilandia EC 1657.34
5 Samambaia DF 1634.27
6 Sobradinho 1512.68
7 Real Brasilia FC 1400.43
8 Paranoa EC 1394.49
9 Brasilia FC 1288.26
10 ARUC DF 1224.02

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 SE do Gama 1737.35
2 Samambaia DF 1661.58
3 Brasiliense FC 1661.08
4 Capital CF 1652.13
5 Ceilandia EC 1566.74
6 Sobradinho 1521.22
7 Paranoa EC 1363.55
8 Real Brasilia FC 1352.12
9 ARUC DF 1298.15
10 Brasilia FC 1185.72