ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 37
Avg Goals 2.84
Avg Home 1.70
Avg Away 1.14
Home Win % 48.6%
Draw % 29.7%
Away Win % 21.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 37
Avg Brier Score 0.4866
Pick Accuracy 62.2%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5394
Market Brier 0.4720
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 14
Value Bet Hit Rate 7.1%
ROI (flat stake) -67.9%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 11 of 37 matches had at least one · staked 14.00, profit -9.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 5 20.0% 5.00 -0.50 -10.0%
draw 4 0.0% 4.00 -4.00 -100.0%
away 5 0.0% 5.00 -5.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.4% 0.0% 7
10–20% 15.1% 5.0% 20
20–30% 25.3% 26.2% 42
30–40% 34.2% 50.0% 8
40–50% 44.0% 25.0% 8
50–60% 55.7% 66.7% 12
60–70% 65.7% 66.7% 9
70–80% 75.9% 100.0% 3
80–90% 86.2% 100.0% 1
90–100% 91.9% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
27.07.24 Grapiuna AC BA vs Colo Colo FR Ilheus 0-0 42% 45% -6.6 30% 34% -12.2 28% 33% -16.6
28.07.24 Fluminense de Feira vs Porto Sport Club BA 1-1 65% 76% -14.8 24% 25% -5.2 11% 10% 17.7
30.04.25 Grapiuna AC BA vs AD Leonico BA 0-3 33% 35% -4.4 28% 30% -7.9 39% 48% -18.5
30.04.25 Itabuna EC vs Fluminense de Feira 1-0 24% 22% 10.2 28% 31% -8.1 47% 60% -20.6
30.04.25 SSA FC BA vs Galicia EC 0-1 50% 57% -12.7 28% 31% -9.8 22% 24% -7.8
04.05.25 AD Leonico BA vs Itabuna EC 1-5 26% 24% 10.2 27% 29% -6.5 46% 59% -21.4
04.05.25 Fluminense de Feira vs Vitoria da Conquista 2-0 71% 79% -10.1 20% 22% -8.9 9% 10% -6.2
10.05.25 Bahia de Feira vs AD Leonico BA 6-2 67% 76% -11.2 23% 25% -9.9 10% 11% -3.2
10.05.25 Fluminense de Feira vs Galicia EC 1-1 64% 68% -6.6 24% 29% -15.5 12% 14% -16.8
11.05.25 Itabuna EC vs Vitoria da Conquista 3-2 69% 79% -13.0 20% 21% -2.8 10% 10% 2.3
11.05.25 SSA FC BA vs Teixeira de Freitas BA 2-0 63% 75% -15.6 23% 23% -0.8 14% 14% 5.0
17.05.25 Bahia de Feira vs SSA FC BA 2-1 63% 76% -17.3 23% 23% 1.1 14% 11% 21.9
24.05.25 Fluminense de Feira vs Bahia de Feira 1-1 42% 47% -10.3 30% 34% -11.4 28% 32% -12.4
25.05.25 EC Ypiranga Salvador vs Galicia EC 1-1 43% 43% -0.4 29% 34% -14.2 28% 36% -22.6
25.05.25 SSA FC BA vs AD Leonico BA 1-1 67% 78% -13.6 21% 22% -2.3 11% 11% 4.3
31.05.25 Fluminense de Feira vs Teixeira de Freitas BA 2-0 86% 98% -12.1 10% 7% 49.5 4% 2% 75.7
01.06.25 AD Leonico BA vs Galicia EC 1-3 19% 13% 42.4 24% 24% 1.3 57% 74% -23.2
01.06.25 Itabuna EC vs EC Ypiranga Salvador 2-2 55% 65% -14.5 27% 30% -9.4 17% 17% 0.2
07.06.25 Bahia de Feira vs Vitoria da Conquista 3-0 68% 77% -11.8 21% 22% -5.2 12% 12% -7.5
07.06.25 SSA FC BA vs Fluminense de Feira 1-2 20% 22% -8.3 26% 29% -8.0 53% 61% -13.1
08.06.25 EC Ypiranga Salvador vs AD Leonico BA 2-1 64% 75% -13.7 23% 24% -5.3 12% 12% 2.9
08.06.25 Galicia EC vs Grapiuna AC BA 8-1 80% 92% -13.0 14% 12% 18.2 6% 5% 25.4
14.06.25 Fluminense de Feira vs EC Ypiranga Salvador 2-1 57% 63% -9.8 26% 29% -11.1 17% 19% -11.9
14.06.25 Galicia EC vs Vitoria da Conquista 1-2 55% 60% -8.0 26% 29% -10.5 20% 24% -17.4
15.06.25 AD Leonico BA vs Teixeira de Freitas BA 3-0 56% 69% -19.0 25% 25% -1.5 19% 17% 10.2
15.06.25 Itabuna EC vs Bahia de Feira 1-0 39% 43% -10.6 29% 32% -9.4 32% 36% -12.3
29.06.25 Bahia de Feira vs EC Ypiranga Salvador 2-0 56% 67% -15.5 25% 26% -4.8 19% 19% -2.1
29.06.25 SSA FC BA vs Itabuna EC 0-0 21% 20% 5.7 28% 30% -7.6 51% 61% -17.1
05.07.25 Fluminense de Feira vs Bahia de Feira 1-1 41% 42% -2.5 30% 34% -12.5 29% 36% -19.6
06.07.25 Galicia EC vs Itabuna EC 0-0 29% 29% 3.2 31% 36% -12.7 39% 49% -19.4
12.07.25 Bahia de Feira vs Fluminense de Feira 3-0 40% 43% -7.6 30% 34% -11.9 29% 34% -14.7
13.07.25 Itabuna EC vs Galicia EC 0-0 55% 61% -11.0 26% 29% -9.2 19% 22% -12.5
02.05.26 Jacobina EC vs Grapiuna AC BA 2-1 56% 67% -16.8 24% 24% -0.5 20% 21% -1.9
03.05.26 AD Leonico BA vs SSA FC BA 0-3 17% 14% 20.0 24% 23% 1.8 59% 74% -19.3
07.06.26 Fluminense de Feira vs AD Leonico BA 3-0 92% 99% -7.2 6% 5% 23.6 2% 2% 9.2
13.06.26 Jacobina EC vs Fluminense de Feira 0-6 8% 6% 21.9 15% 13% 15.0 77% 89% -13.7
21.06.26 Fluminense de Feira vs SSA FC BA 4-0 57% 64% -9.7 24% 26% -8.2 18% 22% -15.6

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Fluminense de Feira 1837.71
2 Feira FC BA 1735.11
3 Itabuna EC 1699.02
4 EC Ypiranga Salvador 1659.91
5 SSA FC BA 1646.74
6 Barreiras FC BA 1644.81
7 Teixeira de Freitas BA 1600.00
8 Redencao FC BA 1425.14
9 Vitoria da Conquista 1402.36
10 Jacobina EC 1352.60
11 Grapiuna AC BA 1313.44
12 AD Leonico BA 1067.37

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Fluminense de Feira 1839.34
2 Feira FC BA 1725.28
3 Itabuna EC 1678.41
4 SSA FC BA 1628.55
5 Barreiras FC BA 1547.42
6 EC Ypiranga Salvador 1464.56
7 Vitoria da Conquista 1430.34
8 Jacobina EC 1357.07
9 Redencao FC BA 1353.79
10 AD Leonico BA 1150.46
11 Teixeira de Freitas BA 1125.04
12 Grapiuna AC BA 1097.02