ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 113
Avg Goals 2.02
Avg Home 1.12
Avg Away 0.90
Home Win % 38.1%
Draw % 30.1%
Away Win % 31.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 113
Avg Brier Score 0.6467
Pick Accuracy 42.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6517
Market Brier 0.6455
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 100.0%
ROI (flat stake) 700.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 113 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit 7.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 100.0% 1.00 7.00 700.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 5.0% 0.0% 2
10–20% 16.4% 33.3% 15
20–30% 26.8% 25.2% 107
30–40% 33.1% 33.8% 142
40–50% 44.1% 40.0% 55
50–60% 54.1% 61.5% 13
60–70% 64.8% 50.0% 4
90–100% 90.1% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
15.10.23 Sao Goncalo vs Paduano EC 0-0 28% 32% -13.3 29% 32% -9.4 43% 49% -12.2
21.10.23 EC Nova Cidade vs Friburguense 1-1 25% 31% -18.8 29% 32% -10.4 46% 49% -5.5
21.10.23 Paduano EC vs Duque de Caxias 0-0 36% 40% -10.1 29% 32% -8.7 35% 40% -13.6
25.10.23 Duque de Caxias vs CIG 7 de Abril RJ 4-0 90% 96% -6.3 8% 9% -10.9 2% 2% -6.2
25.10.23 Friburguense vs Paduano EC 1-0 29% 34% -14.5 29% 32% -9.1 42% 47% -10.4
25.10.23 Macae vs EC Nova Cidade 0-1 34% 37% -8.2 30% 32% -8.4 36% 43% -14.3
28.10.23 Barra da Tijuca vs Duque de Caxias 1-0 37% 39% -5.5 30% 34% -10.7 33% 39% -16.6
28.10.23 EC Nova Cidade vs Serra Macaense FC 1-1 41% 48% -13.5 29% 32% -9.4 30% 33% -11.2
28.10.23 Macae vs Friburguense 3-4 29% 32% -10.6 30% 34% -10.2 41% 47% -12.4
03.11.23 Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ 3-2 40% 47% -14.3 30% 33% -10.1 30% 33% -9.5
03.11.23 Goytacaz FC vs EC Nova Cidade 2-1 67% 76% -12.7 22% 24% -6.8 11% 11% 0.3
03.11.23 Paduano EC vs Barra da Tijuca 2-2 35% 43% -16.9 30% 33% -9.8 35% 37% -6.5
08.11.23 EC Nova Cidade vs Sao Goncalo 0-1 14% 15% -6.7 23% 24% -2.8 62% 72% -13.8
08.11.23 Perolas Negras vs Duque de Caxias 2-3 24% 27% -11.5 30% 33% -10.5 47% 53% -11.5
08.11.23 Serra Macaense FC vs Friburguense 0-1 25% 28% -10.8 28% 31% -7.9 47% 54% -13.2
08.11.23 Serrano RJ vs Paduano EC 1-0 44% 51% -13.7 30% 34% -10.4 26% 28% -6.2
11.11.23 Goytacaz FC vs Duque de Caxias 0-1 32% 38% -14.7 31% 34% -10.4 37% 40% -7.7
18.11.23 Duque de Caxias vs Goytacaz FC 2-0 48% 55% -12.7 28% 31% -8.2 24% 26% -8.5
25.11.23 Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias 0-0 35% 39% -10.4 30% 34% -10.0 34% 39% -12.4
02.12.23 Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ 3-2 44% 50% -12.1 31% 34% -11.3 25% 28% -8.4
21.09.24 ArtSul vs EC Nova Cidade 1-1 70% 79% -11.7 20% 21% -4.6 11% 11% -4.9
21.09.24 Sao Cristovao FR RJ vs Paduano EC 0-1 57% 63% -9.3 26% 30% -13.3 16% 19% -14.4
28.09.24 EC Nova Cidade vs SE Belford Roxo 2-2 24% 31% -20.5 30% 35% -13.5 45% 48% -4.7
28.09.24 Paduano EC vs Friburguense 0-1 55% 65% -15.4 27% 29% -8.0 18% 17% 1.5
28.09.24 Perolas Negras vs ArtSul 0-1 61% 73% -16.9 25% 25% -1.7 15% 12% 18.2
28.09.24 Serrano RJ vs Sao Cristovao FR RJ 1-0 47% 56% -15.8 29% 31% -7.9 24% 24% -2.0
04.10.24 ArtSul vs Paduano EC 0-1 41% 49% -16.7 31% 34% -10.1 28% 29% -0.7
05.10.24 Friburguense vs Serrano RJ 0-0 26% 33% -23.4 29% 33% -13.1 45% 47% -2.2
12.10.24 Paduano EC vs SE Belford Roxo 2-1 35% 40% -11.5 32% 36% -12.1 33% 36% -10.2
12.10.24 Sao Cristovao FR RJ vs Friburguense 1-0 41% 47% -12.0 29% 32% -8.9 30% 33% -11.0
12.10.24 Serrano RJ vs ArtSul 0-1 50% 59% -14.7 28% 31% -7.8 21% 22% -1.3
19.10.24 ArtSul vs Sao Cristovao FR RJ 2-1 47% 56% -16.2 28% 30% -7.1 25% 26% -3.4
19.10.24 Sao Goncalo vs Paduano EC 0-0 47% 51% -8.5 29% 33% -12.0 24% 28% -14.5
23.10.24 EC Nova Cidade vs Perolas Negras 1-3 19% 24% -21.3 27% 30% -12.2 55% 58% -5.5
26.10.24 Friburguense vs ArtSul 2-0 26% 30% -14.4 30% 34% -10.6 44% 48% -8.2
26.10.24 Sao Cristovao FR RJ vs SE Belford Roxo 0-0 39% 45% -13.3 30% 33% -9.9 31% 34% -9.8
02.11.24 EC Nova Cidade vs Serrano RJ 3-2 18% 22% -19.6 27% 31% -12.4 55% 60% -7.3
02.11.24 Perolas Negras vs Paduano EC 0-1 45% 50% -10.5 29% 32% -10.2 26% 30% -13.3
02.11.24 Sao Goncalo vs Sao Cristovao FR RJ 4-0 52% 60% -11.9 28% 31% -9.9 20% 22% -8.7
02.11.24 SE Belford Roxo vs Friburguense 1-1 38% 42% -9.2 30% 34% -10.5 31% 36% -13.7
06.11.24 ArtSul vs SE Belford Roxo 4-0 49% 56% -12.9 29% 32% -10.2 22% 24% -7.2
06.11.24 Friburguense vs Sao Goncalo 0-0 28% 32% -13.9 31% 35% -11.3 41% 45% -9.1
06.11.24 Sao Cristovao FR RJ vs EC Nova Cidade 1-0 34% 37% -7.2 31% 34% -10.7 35% 41% -14.7
12.11.24 EC Nova Cidade vs Friburguense 1-1 29% 32% -9.9 30% 32% -8.5 41% 48% -13.0
12.11.24 Paduano EC vs Serrano RJ 1-0 46% 54% -15.4 29% 31% -7.9 26% 27% -4.3
12.11.24 Perolas Negras vs Sao Cristovao FR RJ 1-0 57% 62% -8.2 26% 29% -12.4 17% 20% -15.7
12.11.24 Sao Goncalo vs ArtSul 0-1 41% 49% -15.5 29% 32% -8.6 29% 31% -6.2
16.11.24 Perolas Negras vs ArtSul 1-2 35% 38% -10.0 32% 37% -12.5 33% 37% -11.0
17.11.24 Sao Goncalo vs Paduano EC 1-1 42% 49% -13.6 32% 36% -12.1 26% 27% -4.2
22.11.24 Paduano EC vs Sao Goncalo 0-1 25% 27% -9.0 33% 38% -13.4 42% 47% -9.4
23.11.24 ArtSul vs Perolas Negras 0-2 43% 49% -12.8 30% 34% -10.9 27% 30% -10.0
06.09.25 Bonsucesso FC vs ArtSul 0-0 39% 44% -12.8 31% 35% -11.4 30% 33% -9.5
06.09.25 Duque de Caxias vs Petropolis FC RJ 1-0 37% 41% -9.1 32% 36% -11.7 31% 36% -12.3
06.09.25 Friburguense vs AA Carapebus 0-1 42% 47% -9.6 31% 36% -13.4 26% 30% -12.7
06.09.25 Niteroiense RJ vs Sao Cristovao FR RJ 1-0 40% 43% -7.3 31% 35% -11.7 29% 33% -13.8
06.09.25 Paduano EC vs EC Nova Cidade 5-2 51% 56% -10.3 29% 33% -12.6 20% 23% -11.1
07.09.25 Campo Grande AC vs Serrano RJ 1-1 29% 34% -13.2 32% 36% -12.2 39% 43% -9.2
13.09.25 AA Carapebus vs Paduano EC 0-0 27% 31% -12.0 31% 34% -11.0 42% 48% -11.2
13.09.25 ArtSul vs Campo Grande AC 1-2 46% 49% -5.3 31% 36% -14.7 23% 27% -15.7
13.09.25 EC Nova Cidade vs Niteroiense RJ 0-0 22% 24% -7.9 27% 29% -5.8 51% 60% -15.1
13.09.25 Petropolis FC RJ vs Friburguense 1-0 58% 66% -11.7 27% 31% -11.2 15% 15% -1.4
13.09.25 Sao Cristovao FR RJ vs Bonsucesso FC 0-2 36% 43% -16.8 31% 35% -11.0 33% 34% -4.9
13.09.25 Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias 2-1 32% 39% -18.2 32% 37% -13.2 36% 37% -3.4
20.09.25 Campo Grande AC vs Bonsucesso FC 1-1 30% 34% -12.0 33% 38% -13.2 37% 41% -9.6
20.09.25 Duque de Caxias vs ArtSul 1-0 45% 51% -11.4 31% 36% -12.4 23% 25% -6.9
20.09.25 EC Nova Cidade vs Sao Cristovao FR RJ 0-0 29% 34% -13.2 30% 33% -9.8 41% 45% -10.8
20.09.25 Niteroiense RJ vs AA Carapebus 0-2 47% 52% -9.3 29% 32% -11.2 24% 29% -14.8
20.09.25 Paduano EC vs Petropolis FC RJ 0-1 30% 35% -14.9 34% 39% -14.2 36% 38% -5.1
21.09.25 Friburguense vs Serrano RJ 1-0 30% 36% -17.2 33% 38% -13.4 37% 38% -3.2
27.09.25 Bonsucesso FC vs Duque de Caxias 2-0 34% 42% -18.0 34% 39% -14.3 32% 32% -0.1
27.09.25 Petropolis FC RJ vs Niteroiense RJ 2-3 45% 50% -10.1 30% 34% -11.6 25% 29% -12.2
27.09.25 Sao Cristovao FR RJ vs Campo Grande AC 1-1 38% 42% -8.9 32% 36% -12.4 30% 34% -12.4
27.09.25 Serrano RJ vs Paduano EC 1-2 39% 45% -15.3 30% 33% -9.7 31% 34% -7.4
04.10.25 AA Carapebus vs Sao Cristovao FR RJ 0-2 48% 57% -15.8 31% 35% -11.5 21% 20% 4.2
04.10.25 Duque de Caxias vs Campo Grande AC 0-0 47% 51% -6.4 29% 33% -12.8 24% 29% -17.1
04.10.25 EC Nova Cidade vs Petropolis FC RJ 0-1 22% 27% -17.2 30% 35% -12.9 47% 51% -6.4
04.10.25 Niteroiense RJ vs Serrano RJ 1-3 40% 45% -13.1 30% 33% -9.9 30% 34% -10.2
04.10.25 Paduano EC vs ArtSul 0-2 38% 43% -12.7 31% 35% -10.7 31% 33% -7.8
10.10.25 ArtSul vs Niteroiense RJ 2-2 40% 45% -12.3 30% 33% -10.0 30% 34% -11.0
11.10.25 Bonsucesso FC vs Paduano EC 2-1 44% 53% -17.0 30% 34% -10.1 25% 25% 0.6
11.10.25 Campo Grande AC vs Friburguense 1-1 46% 53% -11.9 29% 32% -10.3 25% 28% -11.2
11.10.25 Petropolis FC RJ vs AA Carapebus 3-0 46% 53% -12.8 29% 32% -9.9 25% 28% -9.8
11.10.25 Sao Cristovao FR RJ vs Duque de Caxias 2-0 29% 36% -20.1 30% 34% -11.8 41% 42% -2.7
18.10.25 EC Nova Cidade vs ArtSul 0-0 24% 28% -14.8 31% 36% -12.6 45% 49% -7.5
18.10.25 Friburguense vs Duque de Caxias 0-1 31% 38% -19.8 30% 33% -10.2 39% 40% -2.0
18.10.25 Niteroiense RJ vs Bonsucesso FC 2-3 31% 36% -12.4 33% 38% -13.0 36% 39% -8.6
18.10.25 Paduano EC vs Campo Grande AC 0-1 36% 39% -7.5 31% 34% -10.7 33% 38% -14.4
18.10.25 Petropolis FC RJ vs Sao Cristovao FR RJ 0-1 48% 55% -13.4 28% 31% -9.1 24% 26% -8.8
24.10.25 Campo Grande AC vs Niteroiense RJ 1-1 36% 38% -6.9 31% 35% -11.6 33% 39% -15.4
25.10.25 ArtSul vs AA Carapebus 3-1 53% 61% -14.1 28% 31% -9.2 19% 20% -3.3
25.10.25 Bonsucesso FC vs EC Nova Cidade 1-0 54% 60% -10.1 30% 36% -14.9 15% 16% -3.6
25.10.25 Duque de Caxias vs Paduano EC 2-1 40% 45% -11.9 32% 37% -12.9 28% 30% -8.5
25.10.25 Sao Cristovao FR RJ vs Friburguense 3-1 43% 51% -15.6 30% 33% -9.2 27% 28% -2.3
25.10.25 Serrano RJ vs Petropolis FC RJ 2-1 32% 36% -11.5 30% 33% -9.6 38% 43% -12.0
01.11.25 Bonsucesso FC vs Petropolis FC RJ 1-1 40% 47% -13.1 32% 37% -12.9 27% 29% -7.0
01.11.25 Campo Grande AC vs AA Carapebus 0-1 46% 53% -11.9 31% 35% -12.1 23% 24% -6.6
01.11.25 Duque de Caxias vs EC Nova Cidade 2-2 47% 52% -8.8 30% 34% -12.1 23% 26% -12.6
01.11.25 Friburguense vs Niteroiense RJ 0-1 34% 39% -13.6 31% 35% -11.1 35% 38% -9.2
01.11.25 Sao Cristovao FR RJ vs Paduano EC 2-0 39% 47% -15.8 33% 37% -12.2 28% 29% -0.9
05.11.25 AA Carapebus vs Bonsucesso FC 1-1 21% 25% -15.6 32% 37% -14.3 47% 50% -5.7
Showing the 100 most recent of 113 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 ArtSul 1574.75
2 Serrano RJ 1529.33
3 Niteroiense RJ 1521.77
4 Petropolis FC RJ 1519.44
5 Duque de Caxias 1496.03
6 Goytacaz FC 1478.91
7 Macae 1475.37
8 Sao Cristovao FR RJ 1458.47
9 Campo Grande AC 1453.28
10 Audax Rio 1452.50
11 EC Nova Cidade 1450.19
12 AA Carapebus 1279.31

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Sao Cristovao FR RJ 1510.43
2 ArtSul 1505.80
3 Petropolis FC RJ 1469.17
4 Duque de Caxias 1468.03
5 Serrano RJ 1464.38
6 Campo Grande AC 1446.62
7 Goytacaz FC 1436.82
8 Niteroiense RJ 1428.25
9 Macae 1412.22
10 EC Nova Cidade 1308.36
11 AA Carapebus 1300.24
12 Audax Rio 1244.75