ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 42
Avg Goals 2.17
Avg Home 1.26
Avg Away 0.90
Home Win % 31.0%
Draw % 47.6%
Away Win % 21.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 42
Avg Brier Score 0.6286
Pick Accuracy 40.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6429
Market Brier 0.6283
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 42 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit -2.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.7% 0.0% 3
10–20% 16.1% 6.7% 15
20–30% 25.8% 36.5% 52
30–40% 34.2% 36.4% 22
40–50% 44.5% 28.6% 14
50–60% 54.9% 30.0% 10
60–70% 62.5% 71.4% 7
70–80% 76.9% 50.0% 2
80–90% 81.1% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
15.10.23 Zinzane RJ vs AA Carapebus 1-0 62% 70% -12.5 23% 24% -4.1 16% 17% -6.9
16.10.23 America RJ vs Barra Mansa FC 2-1 56% 65% -13.1 23% 23% -1.6 21% 24% -13.1
20.10.23 Barra Mansa FC vs Sao Cristovao FR RJ 0-1 18% 18% -2.8 24% 26% -4.7 58% 68% -14.9
26.10.23 Barra Mansa FC vs Campo Grande AC 1-1 54% 60% -9.8 26% 29% -10.2 19% 22% -13.4
26.10.23 Bonsucesso FC vs Rio Sao Paulo 1-1 79% 89% -11.1 15% 14% 2.1 6% 6% 2.5
29.10.23 SE Belford Roxo vs Zinzane RJ 0-0 38% 43% -10.3 29% 31% -8.5 33% 38% -13.6
05.11.23 Zinzane RJ vs Rio Sao Paulo 6-1 61% 66% -8.2 23% 26% -10.4 16% 20% -18.9
09.11.23 Bonsucesso FC vs Zinzane RJ 0-0 53% 59% -9.9 26% 29% -9.4 21% 25% -15.6
26.11.23 Zinzane RJ vs SE Belford Roxo 0-0 47% 52% -10.2 29% 32% -10.4 25% 28% -11.7
03.12.23 SE Belford Roxo vs Zinzane RJ 5-0 34% 36% -6.1 31% 34% -11.3 36% 42% -15.0
29.09.24 Serra Macaense FC vs Bonsucesso FC 1-1 18% 17% 2.5 26% 27% -5.4 57% 67% -15.6
29.09.24 Zinzane RJ vs Barra Mansa FC 1-0 66% 76% -13.2 22% 23% -3.4 12% 12% 1.2
07.10.24 America RJ vs Rio Sao Paulo 5-2 60% 67% -9.4 22% 23% -5.7 18% 22% -18.1
07.10.24 Bonsucesso FC vs Uni Souza FC RJ 1-1 45% 50% -9.9 31% 35% -12.5 24% 27% -10.2
07.10.24 Campo Grande AC vs Serra Macaense FC 1-1 47% 52% -8.5 28% 31% -10.7 25% 29% -16.1
08.10.24 Barra Mansa FC vs Niteroiense RJ 1-1 31% 29% 6.2 28% 31% -8.8 40% 51% -21.4
13.10.24 Zinzane RJ vs America RJ 0-0 66% 78% -15.1 21% 20% 2.8 14% 13% 2.1
14.10.24 Rio Sao Paulo vs CIG 7 de Abril RJ 1-0 35% 32% 7.7 26% 28% -6.4 39% 52% -24.2
14.10.24 Serra Macaense FC vs Barra Mansa FC 0-1 44% 54% -18.6 27% 29% -6.9 29% 29% -2.8
14.10.24 Uni Souza FC RJ vs Campo Grande AC 0-4 46% 49% -4.7 27% 30% -10.7 26% 33% -20.6
17.10.24 AA Carapebus vs Serra Macaense FC 1-1 42% 48% -11.2 29% 32% -9.7 29% 32% -11.4
17.10.24 Barra Mansa FC vs Uni Souza FC RJ 0-2 42% 49% -13.2 29% 31% -8.6 29% 32% -9.8
17.10.24 CIG 7 de Abril RJ vs Zinzane RJ 0-0 17% 21% -17.9 23% 25% -9.0 60% 67% -9.8
20.10.24 Bonsucesso FC vs Barra Mansa FC 0-0 52% 62% -15.3 27% 29% -7.7 21% 21% -2.1
20.10.24 Uni Souza FC RJ vs AA Carapebus 1-0 38% 38% -0.6 29% 32% -10.8 33% 42% -20.9
21.10.24 Niteroiense RJ vs CIG 7 de Abril RJ 1-1 53% 55% -3.5 25% 29% -12.3 22% 29% -23.3
21.10.24 Serra Macaense FC vs America RJ 1-0 39% 47% -16.3 28% 31% -8.3 33% 36% -8.0
21.10.24 Zinzane RJ vs Rio Sao Paulo 3-1 74% 81% -8.6 17% 19% -11.1 9% 11% -19.4
24.10.24 Barra Mansa FC vs Campo Grande AC 0-1 26% 24% 5.4 27% 29% -6.6 47% 58% -19.9
24.10.24 Rio Sao Paulo vs Niteroiense RJ 0-2 31% 29% 4.5 25% 26% -2.4 44% 57% -22.6
25.10.24 America RJ vs Uni Souza FC RJ 2-2 31% 29% 4.2 30% 34% -10.9 39% 49% -19.7
25.10.24 CIG 7 de Abril RJ vs Serra Macaense FC 0-0 32% 36% -10.2 29% 32% -9.4 39% 44% -12.9
28.10.24 Niteroiense RJ vs Zinzane RJ 1-1 28% 32% -13.0 29% 32% -10.0 43% 48% -9.9
28.10.24 Serra Macaense FC vs Rio Sao Paulo 3-0 58% 66% -12.1 26% 29% -9.3 16% 17% -6.4
28.10.24 Uni Souza FC RJ vs CIG 7 de Abril RJ 1-1 51% 52% -2.5 27% 31% -13.3 22% 29% -21.7
03.11.24 AA Carapebus vs Barra Mansa FC 1-1 42% 45% -8.1 30% 34% -11.9 28% 32% -13.6
03.11.24 Zinzane RJ vs Serra Macaense FC 0-0 58% 68% -15.4 25% 27% -5.8 17% 17% 1.9
04.11.24 CIG 7 de Abril RJ vs Bonsucesso FC 0-1 21% 22% -3.6 30% 33% -11.4 49% 57% -13.4
06.11.24 Serra Macaense FC vs Niteroiense RJ 1-3 28% 26% 7.0 29% 31% -8.7 43% 55% -21.2
07.11.24 Barra Mansa FC vs America RJ 4-1 63% 76% -17.1 21% 20% 5.4 16% 15% 4.8
07.11.24 Bonsucesso FC vs Rio Sao Paulo 6-0 81% 92% -11.6 14% 12% 12.2 5% 4% 22.8
07.11.24 Uni Souza FC RJ vs Zinzane RJ 0-4 31% 32% -2.5 29% 32% -9.3 39% 48% -17.4

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Zinzane RJ 1691.21
2 CF Rio de Janeiro 1622.95
3 Barra Mansa FC 1562.49
4 Serra Macaense FC 1425.14
5 Mageense Futebol Clube 1415.29
6 Uni Souza FC RJ 1392.67
7 CIG 7 de Abril RJ 1321.67
8 Rio Sao Paulo 1295.80

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Uni Souza FC RJ 1622.74
2 CF Rio de Janeiro 1550.00
3 Zinzane RJ 1460.32
4 Serra Macaense FC 1446.88
5 Barra Mansa FC 1367.84
6 CIG 7 de Abril RJ 1268.35
7 Rio Sao Paulo 1198.68
8 Mageense Futebol Clube 1088.15