ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 106
Avg Goals 2.40
Avg Home 1.37
Avg Away 1.03
Home Win % 42.5%
Draw % 32.1%
Away Win % 25.5%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 106
Avg Brier Score 0.6055
Pick Accuracy 53.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6423
Market Brier 0.6034
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 9
Value Bet Hit Rate 11.1%
ROI (flat stake) -11.1%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 6 of 106 matches had at least one · staked 9.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 5 20.0% 5.00 3.00 60.0%
away 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.3% 10.0% 10
10–20% 16.0% 17.9% 39
20–30% 25.8% 23.5% 85
30–40% 33.3% 31.5% 108
40–50% 44.8% 61.8% 34
50–60% 54.1% 47.6% 21
60–70% 64.3% 63.6% 11
70–80% 73.5% 55.6% 9
80–90% 84.8% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
25.07.24 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs CA Tubarao 1-0 37% 39% -6.4 32% 35% -7.0 31% 38% -19.7
28.07.24 CA Tubarao vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1-1 48% 56% -13.0 30% 31% -3.5 22% 26% -14.3
04.08.24 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs Caravaggio FC SC 2-1 37% 45% -17.8 33% 36% -7.4 30% 31% -5.4
11.08.24 Caravaggio FC SC vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 3-1 42% 49% -13.2 32% 33% -5.4 26% 30% -13.8
17.08.24 Caravaggio FC SC vs Santa Catarina Clube SC 0-0 32% 39% -18.8 32% 34% -7.5 36% 39% -7.5
25.08.24 Santa Catarina Clube SC vs Caravaggio FC SC 1-1 45% 51% -11.4 32% 34% -6.5 24% 28% -15.1
31.05.25 CA Metropolitano vs Blumenau EC SC 0-1 30% 32% -6.2 31% 32% -3.8 39% 48% -18.8
03.06.25 CA Carlos Renaux SC vs Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 1-0 66% 79% -15.9 23% 22% 6.6 11% 11% 1.1
03.06.25 Nacao Araquari SC vs Camboriu FC 1-0 29% 35% -16.6 31% 33% -6.4 40% 44% -11.1
07.06.25 Blumenau EC SC vs Camboriu FC 2-1 44% 51% -13.9 31% 32% -4.2 25% 29% -12.6
08.06.25 CA Tubarao vs CA Metropolitano 1-1 52% 62% -16.1 30% 31% -2.9 18% 18% -2.7
08.06.25 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1-1 13% 10% 23.1 24% 22% 9.2 64% 79% -19.2
14.06.25 Camboriu FC vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 2-2 39% 42% -6.9 33% 36% -8.5 29% 36% -20.1
15.06.25 CA Metropolitano vs Nacao Araquari SC 4-2 42% 51% -18.0 30% 31% -2.5 28% 31% -9.2
15.06.25 CA Tubarao vs Blumenau EC SC 0-0 39% 47% -15.3 32% 33% -4.8 29% 32% -10.4
21.06.25 Blumenau EC SC vs FC Porto de Porto Uniao SC 6-0 85% 98% -13.5 12% 6% 82.4 3% 2% 58.2
21.06.25 Camboriu FC vs CA Tubarao 1-0 29% 31% -6.9 32% 34% -5.8 39% 48% -18.2
22.06.25 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs CA Carlos Renaux SC 2-0 43% 53% -17.5 31% 32% -3.6 25% 27% -5.7
22.06.25 Nacao Araquari SC vs Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 0-0 59% 72% -18.2 27% 26% 2.7 14% 13% 9.5
28.06.25 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC vs CA Tubarao 3-1 14% 16% -14.8 26% 29% -9.0 60% 67% -10.1
29.06.25 CA Carlos Renaux SC vs Blumenau EC SC 1-0 24% 31% -20.9 32% 36% -11.2 44% 45% -3.4
29.06.25 Nacao Araquari SC vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 0-0 35% 40% -13.4 31% 32% -4.3 34% 41% -15.5
05.07.25 Blumenau EC SC vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1-0 46% 51% -9.5 30% 32% -5.7 24% 29% -18.8
06.07.25 CA Metropolitano vs Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 1-0 46% 53% -11.8 31% 33% -5.8 22% 26% -13.5
06.07.25 CA Tubarao vs CA Carlos Renaux SC 2-1 38% 43% -11.5 32% 33% -5.3 30% 36% -16.1
12.07.25 Blumenau EC SC vs Nacao Araquari SC 2-2 55% 61% -9.9 28% 29% -5.8 18% 22% -20.3
13.07.25 CA Carlos Renaux SC vs CA Metropolitano 0-0 44% 48% -8.1 32% 35% -8.4 24% 30% -19.8
13.07.25 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC vs Camboriu FC 0-2 27% 30% -10.1 32% 35% -7.4 40% 48% -15.4
13.07.25 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs CA Tubarao 1-0 46% 51% -8.2 31% 33% -7.5 23% 29% -20.1
20.07.25 CA Carlos Renaux SC vs Nacao Araquari SC 0-0 46% 52% -11.2 31% 32% -5.0 23% 28% -15.9
20.07.25 CA Metropolitano vs Camboriu FC 1-0 34% 38% -9.6 34% 37% -8.8 32% 38% -16.5
20.07.25 CA Tubarao vs FC Porto de Porto Uniao SC 6-0 71% 85% -17.5 20% 15% 27.0 10% 9% 14.2
20.07.25 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC vs Blumenau EC SC 1-1 18% 22% -16.3 28% 31% -8.2 54% 60% -10.0
27.07.25 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs CA Metropolitano 0-0 57% 61% -7.7 27% 29% -7.5 16% 21% -22.3
27.07.25 Nacao Araquari SC vs CA Tubarao 1-2 32% 36% -10.7 33% 35% -7.0 35% 42% -16.2
30.07.25 Camboriu FC vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1-1 30% 34% -11.7 32% 34% -6.3 37% 43% -14.3
31.07.25 CA Tubarao vs CA Metropolitano 0-0 51% 57% -11.2 29% 31% -5.2 20% 24% -17.7
03.08.25 CA Metropolitano vs CA Tubarao 2-0 35% 41% -13.5 33% 36% -7.5 32% 36% -13.0
03.08.25 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs Camboriu FC 1-1 45% 51% -10.6 32% 34% -7.8 23% 28% -17.1
10.08.25 CA Metropolitano vs CA Carlos Renaux SC 1-1 35% 40% -11.3 38% 43% -11.9 27% 29% -8.1
17.08.25 Blumenau EC SC vs Camboriu FC 1-2 53% 61% -14.3 28% 29% -2.1 19% 23% -14.4
17.08.25 CA Carlos Renaux SC vs CA Metropolitano 2-1 43% 49% -11.3 35% 39% -10.3 22% 24% -9.6
21.04.26 Blumenau EC SC vs CA Tubarao 0-0 48% 55% -12.9 31% 32% -5.2 22% 25% -13.8
25.04.26 Guarani de Palhoca vs CA Metropolitano 0-1 29% 29% -2.1 34% 38% -8.9 37% 45% -18.9
29.04.26 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs SC Jaragua 4-1 73% 89% -18.4 17% 11% 54.0 11% 10% 10.6
30.04.26 Caravaggio FC SC vs Blumenau EC SC 1-3 30% 33% -9.7 33% 36% -8.2 37% 43% -16.0
01.05.26 CA Tubarao vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 4-0 50% 58% -15.2 31% 32% -5.1 20% 22% -8.9
03.05.26 CA Metropolitano vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 0-0 30% 33% -10.2 33% 36% -7.4 37% 43% -14.9
03.05.26 SC Jaragua vs Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 1-2 27% 29% -8.1 32% 33% -5.5 41% 50% -17.1
06.05.26 CA Metropolitano vs Nacao Araquari SC 5-2 55% 62% -11.9 29% 31% -5.7 15% 17% -11.2
06.05.26 CA Tubarao vs SC Jaragua 1-1 78% 90% -13.6 16% 12% 26.6 6% 6% -1.4
06.05.26 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs Blumenau EC SC 0-3 19% 18% 1.8 30% 31% -4.5 52% 63% -18.4
06.05.26 Guarani de Palhoca vs Caravaggio FC SC 1-1 29% 31% -7.2 33% 36% -7.3 38% 45% -16.7
10.05.26 Blumenau EC SC vs Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 0-1 64% 70% -8.8 24% 26% -7.5 12% 15% -22.7
10.05.26 Caravaggio FC SC vs CA Metropolitano 2-0 31% 34% -7.2 33% 36% -7.6 36% 43% -18.3
10.05.26 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Guarani de Palhoca 6-0 59% 68% -13.5 26% 26% -0.9 15% 17% -13.2
13.05.26 Nacao Araquari SC vs CA Tubarao 0-0 26% 31% -18.4 31% 34% -8.5 43% 48% -8.7
14.05.26 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Blumenau EC SC 0-1 32% 37% -14.1 33% 35% -6.8 35% 40% -11.3
16.05.26 Guarani de Palhoca vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1-0 36% 40% -8.9 32% 34% -5.8 32% 38% -17.8
17.05.26 CA Metropolitano vs CA Tubarao 0-1 44% 53% -16.1 32% 33% -5.3 24% 27% -9.0
17.05.26 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC vs Nacao Araquari SC 1-1 48% 54% -12.1 30% 31% -4.2 23% 27% -15.5
17.05.26 SC Jaragua vs Caravaggio FC SC 0-8 12% 12% -1.2 21% 19% 8.7 68% 80% -15.4
20.05.26 CA Metropolitano vs Blumenau EC SC 1-0 27% 29% -8.2 33% 36% -8.5 40% 48% -16.5
24.05.26 CA Tubarao vs Caravaggio FC SC 2-2 39% 44% -11.2 32% 33% -5.3 29% 34% -16.1
24.05.26 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 0-1 21% 23% -7.2 30% 31% -4.4 49% 58% -15.2
27.05.26 Blumenau EC SC vs Guarani de Palhoca 2-0 74% 83% -10.7 20% 20% -0.4 6% 7% -11.9
28.05.26 Caravaggio FC SC vs Nacao Araquari SC 4-1 51% 56% -7.3 29% 31% -7.3 20% 25% -21.8
28.05.26 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 0-1 46% 52% -10.9 30% 32% -5.8 23% 29% -18.0
28.05.26 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs CA Tubarao 2-0 48% 56% -15.7 30% 31% -2.4 22% 24% -8.3
30.05.26 CA Metropolitano vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 2-0 54% 60% -9.7 29% 32% -8.9 16% 20% -18.8
31.05.26 CA Tubarao vs Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 1-0 51% 59% -13.2 30% 31% -4.0 19% 22% -12.7
31.05.26 Caravaggio FC SC vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 2-2 33% 36% -7.0 32% 34% -6.0 35% 43% -19.6
03.06.26 Nacao Araquari SC vs Blumenau EC SC 0-6 11% 13% -14.4 24% 26% -9.3 65% 72% -9.5
03.06.26 SC Jaragua vs Guarani de Palhoca 1-3 13% 12% 3.4 22% 21% 7.5 65% 78% -16.1
07.06.26 Guarani de Palhoca vs CA Tubarao 2-2 25% 27% -8.1 31% 33% -5.6 44% 52% -15.7
07.06.26 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Nacao Araquari SC 2-1 77% 88% -11.8 17% 15% 9.7 6% 6% -10.4
11.06.26 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC vs CA Metropolitano 1-3 18% 17% 4.4 29% 29% -2.0 53% 65% -18.9
14.06.26 CA Metropolitano vs Guarani de Palhoca 3-1 63% 69% -9.9 25% 27% -6.0 12% 15% -19.7
14.06.26 Caravaggio FC SC vs Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 1-0 62% 69% -10.2 24% 26% -4.7 13% 17% -20.9
17.06.26 CA Tubarao vs Blumenau EC SC 2-3 19% 18% 4.2 30% 31% -3.7 51% 62% -18.4
18.06.26 Nacao Araquari SC vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1-0 36% 42% -13.6 33% 35% -7.0 31% 36% -13.7
21.06.26 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs CA Tubarao 0-2 25% 28% -9.0 32% 35% -7.2 42% 50% -15.2
21.06.26 Guarani de Palhoca vs Nacao Araquari SC 0-0 44% 50% -11.7 31% 32% -5.0 25% 30% -16.8
21.06.26 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs CA Metropolitano 3-0 44% 51% -14.9 32% 34% -6.2 24% 26% -8.7
24.06.26 Blumenau EC SC vs Caravaggio FC SC 1-2 54% 61% -12.2 28% 29% -3.2 18% 22% -17.0
28.06.26 Caravaggio FC SC vs Guarani de Palhoca 2-3 61% 68% -11.7 24% 24% 0.9 15% 19% -18.9
28.06.26 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 4-2 74% 85% -13.1 18% 17% 10.4 7% 8% -8.6
02.07.26 Nacao Araquari SC vs CA Metropolitano 0-0 19% 22% -14.2 29% 31% -7.4 52% 58% -10.4
04.07.26 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC vs Blumenau EC SC 1-1 8% 9% -9.9 21% 23% -7.3 71% 79% -10.2
04.07.26 Guarani de Palhoca vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 1-2 20% 24% -15.5 29% 31% -7.2 51% 57% -10.9
05.07.26 CA Metropolitano vs Caravaggio FC SC 2-1 43% 49% -11.7 32% 34% -6.1 25% 29% -14.7
05.07.26 CA Tubarao vs Nacao Araquari SC 1-0 60% 68% -12.6 26% 26% -1.7 14% 17% -14.3
08.07.26 Blumenau EC SC vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1-1 73% 81% -9.0 19% 21% -6.7 7% 10% -24.5
12.07.26 CA Tubarao vs CA Metropolitano 2-3 34% 39% -12.4 33% 35% -6.9 33% 38% -14.3
12.07.26 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul vs Guarani de Palhoca 1-0 42% 48% -12.5 32% 34% -6.8 26% 31% -14.8
12.07.26 Nacao Araquari SC vs Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 1-2 35% 38% -10.1 32% 34% -6.5 33% 40% -17.1
15.07.26 Blumenau EC SC vs CA Metropolitano 4-1 42% 45% -6.6 32% 34% -6.8 26% 32% -19.6
15.07.26 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC vs Guarani de Palhoca 1-1 36% 39% -7.7 32% 35% -6.8 31% 38% -18.5
16.07.26 Caravaggio FC SC vs CA Tubarao 2-1 45% 52% -12.7 31% 32% -5.1 24% 29% -15.5
16.07.26 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1-0 70% 81% -13.3 21% 19% 8.5 9% 10% -8.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 106 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 1756.59
2 CA Metropolitano 1671.16
3 Blumenau EC SC 1649.09
4 Caravaggio FC SC 1569.10
5 CA Tubarao 1483.94
6 Guarani de Palhoca 1472.46
7 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1465.06
8 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 1413.39
9 Nacao Araquari SC 1408.01
10 SC Jaragua 1150.95

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Blumenau EC SC 1649.52
2 CA Metropolitano 1606.15
3 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 1558.91
4 Caravaggio FC SC 1541.26
5 CA Tubarao 1467.26
6 GE Juventus Jaragua do Sul 1412.99
7 Guarani de Palhoca 1375.65
8 Fluminense FC de Joinville SC 1333.70
9 Nacao Araquari SC 1315.17
10 SC Jaragua 1231.61