ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 77
Avg Goals 2.27
Avg Home 1.36
Avg Away 0.91
Home Win % 45.5%
Draw % 29.9%
Away Win % 24.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 77
Avg Brier Score 0.5429
Pick Accuracy 51.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5491
Market Brier 0.5506
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 77 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.5% 0.0% 9
10–20% 15.6% 11.4% 44
20–30% 26.0% 25.5% 55
30–40% 33.2% 37.7% 61
40–50% 44.7% 11.1% 18
50–60% 54.3% 65.2% 23
60–70% 63.6% 76.9% 13
70–80% 76.0% 100.0% 6
80–90% 83.4% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
04.05.24 Parana Clube vs Nacional PR 1-0 80% 82% -2.9 14% 19% -24.9 6% 10% -36.4
04.05.24 Patriotas FC vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 2-0 58% 66% -12.0 28% 29% -1.6 14% 17% -18.1
11.05.24 Parana Clube vs Apucarana SC PR 3-0 61% 65% -7.3 25% 27% -5.8 14% 20% -28.6
12.05.24 Foz do Iguacu vs Patriotas FC 1-1 39% 50% -22.2 31% 31% -0.5 30% 31% -3.9
18.05.24 EC Laranja Mecanica PR vs AC Paranavai 0-0 25% 23% 7.7 30% 29% 2.9 45% 60% -24.6
19.05.24 Nacional PR vs Foz do Iguacu 2-2 26% 30% -14.1 31% 31% -0.9 43% 51% -14.9
25.05.24 Parana Clube vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 1-0 83% 86% -4.1 14% 17% -20.9 4% 5% -34.7
01.06.24 Patriotas FC vs Apucarana SC PR 2-1 51% 61% -15.9 31% 31% -0.4 18% 21% -11.9
02.06.24 Foz do Iguacu vs Parana Clube 0-0 20% 29% -29.9 27% 32% -15.0 53% 52% 1.4
02.06.24 Nacional PR vs AC Paranavai 0-1 37% 41% -9.6 32% 32% -1.1 31% 39% -20.4
09.06.24 Apucarana SC PR vs AC Paranavai 0-1 40% 39% 1.8 31% 32% -5.3 30% 42% -29.1
11.06.24 Gremio Maringa vs Nacional PR 0-8 5% 7% -33.2 11% 14% -23.5 84% 88% -4.1
15.06.24 Apucarana SC PR vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 1-2 53% 56% -4.7 29% 32% -8.8 18% 24% -27.8
15.06.24 Parana Clube vs Patriotas FC 1-0 56% 61% -9.2 29% 31% -5.7 15% 19% -22.1
22.06.24 EC Laranja Mecanica PR vs AA Iguacu PR 2-0 36% 44% -19.5 33% 34% -3.5 32% 35% -9.6
23.06.24 Patriotas FC vs AC Paranavai 3-0 54% 55% -1.4 30% 34% -12.9 17% 24% -30.3
30.06.24 AC Paranavai vs Parana Clube 1-1 28% 32% -13.9 33% 35% -4.5 39% 45% -14.3
30.06.24 Patriotas FC vs Nacional PR 1-1 63% 68% -7.3 24% 26% -6.2 13% 18% -29.0
06.07.24 Patriotas FC vs Parana Clube 0-0 32% 38% -15.4 34% 36% -4.5 34% 38% -11.7
14.07.24 Parana Clube vs Patriotas FC 3-0 62% 68% -8.5 26% 28% -7.7 12% 17% -27.3
13.04.25 AC Paranavai vs Toledo Colonia Work 2-0 64% 65% -2.7 23% 27% -13.5 13% 20% -33.3
15.04.25 EC Laranja Mecanica PR vs AA Batel PR 1-1 37% 47% -19.5 32% 33% -2.7 30% 33% -9.6
19.04.25 Foz do Iguacu vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 4-0 51% 60% -13.8 31% 32% -2.6 17% 20% -13.6
26.04.25 Nacional PR vs PSTC Procopense 0-0 45% 50% -10.6 31% 31% -0.5 25% 31% -20.9
26.04.25 Toledo Colonia Work vs Foz do Iguacu 0-0 19% 24% -21.8 28% 30% -6.6 53% 58% -9.0
27.04.25 EC Laranja Mecanica PR vs Patriotas FC 0-0 27% 32% -15.6 32% 33% -3.7 41% 48% -14.6
03.05.25 Patriotas FC vs AA Iguacu PR 2-1 52% 57% -9.1 29% 29% -1.9 19% 25% -23.3
04.05.25 Toledo Colonia Work vs Nacional PR 2-0 22% 26% -14.6 30% 31% -2.5 48% 55% -13.3
06.05.25 EC Laranja Mecanica PR vs AC Paranavai 2-1 24% 27% -10.1 31% 31% -0.7 45% 54% -16.8
10.05.25 Galo Maringa vs Toledo Colonia Work 3-0 62% 62% 0.7 25% 30% -18.5 13% 20% -34.3
11.05.25 Nacional PR vs AA Batel PR 1-1 46% 54% -14.3 34% 36% -5.7 19% 22% -10.8
11.05.25 PSTC Procopense vs Patriotas FC 0-1 28% 33% -15.1 33% 34% -4.5 39% 45% -14.7
17.05.25 EC Laranja Mecanica PR vs Galo Maringa 0-0 24% 27% -10.8 32% 32% -2.2 45% 53% -16.5
25.05.25 Toledo Colonia Work vs AA Iguacu PR 1-1 32% 41% -20.8 32% 33% -3.7 36% 38% -7.5
31.05.25 Patriotas FC vs Foz do Iguacu 2-5 40% 43% -5.7 33% 35% -5.2 27% 34% -22.8
01.06.25 Nacional PR vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 1-0 50% 54% -6.9 30% 32% -6.5 20% 26% -25.9
03.06.25 Galo Maringa vs AA Batel PR 4-1 65% 72% -10.6 25% 25% -1.9 11% 14% -22.5
07.06.25 EC Laranja Mecanica PR vs Toledo Colonia Work 0-1 49% 51% -2.4 31% 35% -10.3 19% 27% -28.1
07.06.25 Galo Maringa vs Nacional PR 2-1 59% 65% -8.1 27% 28% -4.5 14% 19% -25.6
14.06.25 Toledo Colonia Work vs Galo Maringa 0-3 18% 23% -23.3 29% 32% -10.3 53% 56% -5.5
15.06.25 Nacional PR vs Patriotas FC 1-0 39% 45% -14.2 31% 31% 0.3 30% 36% -16.9
22.06.25 AC Paranavai vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 1-2 66% 68% -3.8 22% 26% -12.8 12% 17% -32.6
22.06.25 Galo Maringa vs Toledo Colonia Work 7-0 62% 64% -2.1 24% 28% -13.1 14% 20% -32.4
28.06.25 Nacional PR vs Galo Maringa 2-2 19% 22% -12.8 30% 30% -2.2 51% 60% -14.3
29.06.25 AC Paranavai vs Foz do Iguacu 0-0 50% 51% -3.0 33% 37% -12.1 18% 24% -27.3
05.07.25 Galo Maringa vs Nacional PR 5-0 59% 60% -1.7 24% 28% -12.0 16% 24% -33.1
28.02.26 Parana Clube vs Prudentopolis 1-0 74% 77% -3.8 19% 23% -18.2 7% 11% -34.0
01.03.26 Nacional PR vs Toledo Colonia Work 1-1 54% 56% -4.6 29% 32% -8.9 17% 23% -27.5
01.03.26 Rio Branco PR vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 3-0 62% 66% -6.2 26% 28% -7.5 13% 17% -27.6
08.03.26 EC Laranja Mecanica PR vs Parana Clube 0-3 15% 21% -29.4 26% 32% -17.9 59% 59% -0.3
08.03.26 Patriotas FC vs AC Paranavai 1-0 41% 45% -9.2 34% 36% -5.9 24% 30% -19.1
14.03.26 Parana Clube vs AC Paranavai 1-0 59% 65% -8.3 28% 29% -6.0 13% 17% -24.0
15.03.26 Rio Branco PR vs Nacional PR 1-1 47% 51% -7.5 32% 34% -7.1 21% 27% -23.9
21.03.26 Nacional PR vs Araucaria ECR PR 1-1 51% 60% -14.6 30% 30% -0.2 19% 22% -14.9
22.03.26 AC Paranavai vs AA Batel PR 2-1 53% 60% -11.1 29% 29% -1.5 18% 23% -21.4
28.03.26 Patriotas FC vs Nacional PR 2-0 44% 45% -2.7 31% 33% -6.0 24% 33% -26.7
29.03.26 AC Paranavai vs Prudentopolis 2-1 56% 56% -0.0 28% 32% -13.0 16% 24% -31.2
29.03.26 Toledo Colonia Work vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 1-2 34% 36% -5.6 36% 39% -7.8 30% 38% -20.1
05.04.26 Parana Clube vs Nacional PR 3-1 66% 69% -4.8 24% 27% -12.6 10% 15% -30.8
11.04.26 Parana Clube vs Toledo Colonia Work 2-0 80% 83% -3.3 15% 20% -22.7 5% 7% -35.2
12.04.26 Nacional PR vs AC Paranavai 1-4 44% 48% -8.4 32% 34% -4.5 24% 31% -21.9
18.04.26 Araucaria ECR PR vs Parana Clube 0-1 9% 13% -33.1 19% 25% -24.4 72% 72% -0.4
18.04.26 Patriotas FC vs Prudentopolis 2-1 68% 71% -4.1 22% 26% -15.6 9% 14% -32.7
19.04.26 AC Paranavai vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 0-2 52% 53% -2.0 31% 35% -11.2 18% 24% -28.2
25.04.26 AC Paranavai vs Toledo Colonia Work 0-1 65% 68% -4.7 24% 28% -14.1 11% 16% -32.0
25.04.26 Parana Clube vs Patriotas FC 2-1 53% 58% -8.6 29% 31% -4.9 18% 24% -24.6
02.05.26 AC Paranavai vs EC Laranja Mecanica PR 0-0 46% 47% -1.3 32% 36% -10.2 22% 31% -28.4
03.05.26 Nacional PR vs Patriotas FC 0-0 38% 43% -12.8 32% 33% -2.6 30% 36% -18.5
03.05.26 Toledo Colonia Work vs Parana Clube 0-2 14% 21% -30.8 25% 31% -19.3 60% 60% 0.2
09.05.26 EC Laranja Mecanica PR vs AC Paranavai 1-2 42% 47% -9.7 32% 33% -3.9 26% 33% -22.2
10.05.26 Parana Clube vs Toledo Colonia Work 6-1 71% 74% -3.1 20% 25% -18.1 8% 12% -33.8
12.05.26 Araucaria ECR PR vs Rio Branco PR 1-0 39% 48% -18.2 30% 29% 2.9 31% 35% -11.7
16.05.26 AC Paranavai vs Patriotas FC 1-2 36% 43% -16.1 34% 36% -4.5 29% 33% -11.7
23.05.26 Parana Clube vs Araucaria ECR PR 2-1 79% 83% -5.3 16% 19% -17.1 5% 8% -34.0
24.05.26 Patriotas FC vs AC Paranavai 0-1 44% 48% -7.3 33% 34% -5.7 23% 30% -23.0
30.05.26 AC Paranavai vs Parana Clube 1-1 28% 34% -17.4 33% 34% -4.7 39% 43% -11.2
06.06.26 Parana Clube vs AC Paranavai 0-0 59% 63% -6.2 26% 29% -7.8 14% 20% -28.4

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Parana Clube 1679.37
2 AA Batel PR 1600.00
3 Nacional PR 1563.90
4 Patriotas FC 1546.82
5 Rio Branco PR 1541.95
6 AC Paranavai 1528.52
7 EC Laranja Mecanica PR 1461.12
8 Araucaria ECR PR 1395.22
9 Prudentopolis 1379.57
10 Toledo Colonia Work 1372.00

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Parana Clube 1568.78
2 Patriotas FC 1494.69
3 Nacional PR 1480.52
4 AC Paranavai 1479.24
5 EC Laranja Mecanica PR 1430.89
6 AA Batel PR 1387.00
7 Toledo Colonia Work 1350.39
8 Rio Branco PR 1340.95
9 Prudentopolis 1326.19
10 Araucaria ECR PR 1283.20