ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 43
Avg Goals 3.51
Avg Home 1.72
Avg Away 1.79
Home Win % 39.5%
Draw % 20.9%
Away Win % 39.5%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 43
Avg Brier Score 0.4258
Pick Accuracy 60.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.4196
Market Brier 0.4349
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 7
Value Bet Hit Rate 14.3%
ROI (flat stake) -50.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 71.4% of value bets are on 'draw' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 7 of 43 matches had at least one · staked 7.00, profit -3.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 100.0% 1.00 2.50 250.0%
draw 5 0.0% 5.00 -5.00 -100.0%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 5.7% 6.9% 29
10–20% 14.8% 0.0% 19
20–30% 26.3% 37.9% 29
30–40% 34.9% 26.7% 15
40–50% 45.5% 30.0% 10
50–60% 55.0% 66.7% 3
60–70% 64.1% 66.7% 3
70–80% 76.2% 85.7% 7
80–90% 85.0% 100.0% 9
90–100% 91.7% 80.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
16.03.24 Atletico Progresso Clube RR vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 0-6 3% 3% -19.7 6% 6% -5.3 91% 98% -6.7
20.03.24 Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR vs Nautico FC RR 0-2 9% 11% -23.1 14% 17% -13.8 77% 82% -6.0
27.03.24 AE Real Sao Luiz vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 1-2 24% 24% 0.5 26% 27% -2.7 49% 60% -18.3
27.03.24 Nautico FC RR vs Sao Raimundo RR 1-3 14% 14% -4.6 20% 20% -0.3 66% 77% -13.6
08.05.24 Monte Roraima RR vs Atletico Roraima 3-0 83% 91% -9.1 12% 11% 6.7 6% 7% -22.7
10.05.24 AE Real Sao Luiz vs Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR 2-1 60% 63% -5.2 23% 26% -10.9 17% 24% -28.1
11.05.24 Gremio Atletico Sampaio vs Atletico Roraima 6-0 91% 98% -6.9 7% 6% 15.4 2% 2% -20.5
15.05.24 Sao Raimundo RR vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 1-1 39% 48% -18.7 27% 29% -5.2 34% 36% -6.0
19.05.24 Atletico Roraima vs AE Real Sao Luiz 3-2 2% 2% -18.4 6% 7% -17.5 93% 98% -5.6
22.05.24 Monte Roraima RR vs Sao Raimundo RR 1-2 38% 47% -18.5 27% 29% -5.1 35% 37% -5.6
29.05.24 Gremio Atletico Sampaio vs Monte Roraima RR 1-1 50% 58% -13.7 28% 30% -6.6 21% 23% -8.2
29.05.24 Sao Raimundo RR vs Nautico FC RR 5-1 71% 79% -10.8 19% 19% -0.6 10% 12% -18.2
05.06.24 Sao Raimundo RR vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 1-5 49% 60% -18.3 27% 29% -4.3 24% 24% -1.5
12.06.24 Sao Raimundo RR vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 2-3 41% 50% -18.1 28% 30% -6.6 31% 32% -4.6
08.02.25 Nautico FC RR vs Atletico Roraima 1-1 66% 68% -4.0 20% 23% -12.4 14% 20% -29.9
12.02.25 Monte Roraima RR vs Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR 1-0 87% 97% -10.4 10% 9% 15.8 3% 3% -9.8
18.02.25 Nautico FC RR vs Monte Roraima RR 1-4 17% 19% -9.0 23% 24% -5.0 60% 68% -12.5
22.02.25 Gremio Atletico Sampaio vs Monte Roraima RR 0-0 38% 47% -19.1 28% 31% -7.7 34% 35% -3.3
22.02.25 Sao Raimundo RR vs Nautico FC RR 2-0 82% 92% -10.9 12% 10% 21.4 6% 7% -12.6
02.03.25 Gremio Atletico Sampaio vs Sao Raimundo RR 1-2 20% 22% -9.3 25% 27% -6.6 55% 62% -11.9
05.03.25 Atletico Roraima vs Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR 0-2 45% 56% -19.5 28% 29% -5.3 27% 26% 1.3
08.03.25 Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 0-4 8% 12% -30.0 15% 20% -24.3 76% 79% -3.0
08.03.25 Monte Roraima RR vs Atletico Roraima 3-0 76% 83% -8.3 18% 19% -6.8 6% 8% -18.9
15.03.25 Atletico Roraima vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 1-8 2% 3% -20.1 7% 9% -17.7 90% 96% -6.2
19.03.25 Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR vs Nautico FC RR 5-1 47% 62% -24.6 24% 24% 0.7 29% 26% 12.6
22.03.25 Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR vs Sao Raimundo RR 2-1 9% 14% -34.4 12% 17% -29.2 79% 80% -1.7
22.03.25 Nautico FC RR vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 1-6 4% 5% -24.0 9% 11% -17.6 86% 92% -5.8
27.03.25 Sao Raimundo RR vs Monte Roraima RR 1-1 46% 55% -15.1 27% 29% -4.5 26% 29% -10.4
29.03.25 Gremio Atletico Sampaio vs Sao Raimundo RR 2-1 32% 36% -12.1 30% 33% -9.9 38% 43% -12.6
06.04.25 Gremio Atletico Sampaio vs Monte Roraima RR 1-1 45% 51% -10.9 28% 30% -6.5 27% 31% -14.7
28.01.26 Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR vs Nautico FC RR 1-0 33% 29% 14.1 23% 22% 4.5 45% 62% -28.1
31.01.26 Sao Raimundo RR vs Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR 2-1 80% 86% -6.7 14% 15% -9.4 6% 8% -27.1
07.02.26 Gremio Atletico Sampaio vs Atletico Roraima 6-1 88% 95% -7.1 10% 10% 1.4 2% 2% -13.1
08.02.26 Sao Raimundo RR vs Monte Roraima RR 1-1 42% 50% -15.2 28% 30% -6.3 29% 32% -9.5
14.02.26 Monte Roraima RR vs Atletico Roraima 5-1 89% 96% -7.9 8% 7% 21.1 3% 4% -22.0
16.02.26 Nautico FC RR vs Sao Raimundo RR 0-4 5% 8% -29.7 9% 12% -22.1 85% 89% -4.6
21.02.26 Monte Roraima RR vs Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR 3-0 75% 81% -7.7 17% 19% -9.2 8% 10% -25.1
01.03.26 Gremio Atletico Sampaio vs Sao Raimundo RR 0-1 27% 32% -17.3 28% 31% -10.4 45% 49% -7.1
05.03.26 Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 0-2 7% 9% -24.1 14% 17% -17.7 79% 85% -6.3
05.03.26 Nautico FC RR vs Monte Roraima RR 0-1 2% 3% -27.1 5% 6% -17.0 93% 98% -5.1
08.03.26 Gremio Atletico Sampaio vs Nautico FC RR 4-1 85% 93% -9.2 11% 10% 15.9 4% 5% -14.1
15.03.26 Monte Roraima RR vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 3-3 38% 44% -13.9 28% 30% -6.0 33% 37% -10.2
22.03.26 Monte Roraima RR vs Gremio Atletico Sampaio 0-0 37% 43% -14.1 28% 30% -6.3 34% 38% -11.0

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Sao Raimundo RR 1621.50
2 Monte Roraima RR 1611.07
3 Gremio Atletico Sampaio 1394.81
4 Bare EC 1232.38
5 Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR 971.07
6 Nautico FC RR 958.27
7 Atletico Roraima 948.85
8 Atletico Progresso Clube RR 901.12

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Monte Roraima RR 1533.91
2 Sao Raimundo RR 1504.05
3 Gremio Atletico Sampaio 1341.58
4 Bare EC 1180.19
5 Atletico Rio Negro Clube RR 1160.19
6 Atletico Progresso Clube RR 1066.61
7 Nautico FC RR 1028.07
8 Atletico Roraima 957.52