ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 55
Avg Goals 2.18
Avg Home 1.18
Avg Away 1.00
Home Win % 45.5%
Draw % 25.5%
Away Win % 29.1%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 55
Avg Brier Score 0.5900
Pick Accuracy 54.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6125
Market Brier 0.5871
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 10
Value Bet Hit Rate 20.0%
ROI (flat stake) 75.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 80.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 8 of 55 matches had at least one · staked 10.00, profit 7.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
away 8 25.0% 8.00 9.50 118.8%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.5% 0.0% 1
10–20% 16.7% 12.5% 16
20–30% 25.9% 19.1% 68
30–40% 33.8% 38.9% 36
40–50% 44.2% 65.2% 23
50–60% 54.3% 46.2% 13
60–70% 64.5% 57.1% 7
70–80% 76.4% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
27.01.24 Uniao Carmolandense vs Bela Vista 1-0 47% 51% -9.0 28% 32% -14.2 26% 29% -10.2
30.01.24 Araguaina FR vs Capital FC TO 1-2 31% 35% -11.5 26% 31% -15.8 43% 47% -8.3
31.01.24 Gurupi EC TO vs Tocantins 0-0 50% 54% -7.7 27% 31% -13.7 24% 28% -15.3
03.02.24 Bela Vista vs Batalhao FC TO 2-0 35% 42% -16.8 28% 34% -18.1 38% 38% -0.5
03.02.24 Capital FC TO vs Gurupi EC TO 0-0 58% 68% -14.6 24% 27% -9.5 18% 17% 2.1
04.02.24 Tocantinopolis vs Araguaina FR 0-1 64% 77% -16.5 21% 21% -1.7 15% 13% 12.9
09.02.24 Tocantinopolis vs Bela Vista 2-1 59% 69% -15.7 23% 25% -7.3 18% 17% 5.2
10.02.24 Gurupi EC TO vs Uniao Carmolandense 0-1 31% 34% -10.3 28% 34% -17.3 41% 44% -7.7
20.02.24 Araguaina FR vs Gurupi EC TO 2-1 45% 53% -13.8 27% 31% -13.3 28% 28% -0.8
24.02.24 Gurupi EC TO vs Tocantinopolis 0-0 15% 16% -4.8 23% 28% -18.3 62% 67% -7.5
24.02.24 Uniao Carmolandense vs Araguaina FR 1-0 41% 44% -7.8 29% 34% -15.4 30% 34% -10.5
25.02.24 Capital FC TO vs Bela Vista 2-0 49% 56% -12.3 27% 31% -12.9 24% 25% -4.2
02.03.24 Gurupi EC TO vs Batalhao FC TO 3-2 49% 62% -20.8 25% 29% -12.2 26% 21% 23.6
02.03.24 Uniao Carmolandense vs Tocantinopolis 0-0 33% 38% -13.7 28% 34% -17.5 39% 41% -3.4
05.03.24 Araguaina FR vs Bela Vista 1-1 54% 63% -14.8 26% 29% -11.7 20% 19% 5.5
10.03.24 Bela Vista vs Gurupi EC TO 1-2 42% 50% -16.1 27% 32% -15.2 31% 30% 1.3
10.03.24 Capital FC TO vs Uniao Carmolandense 1-4 41% 45% -10.2 29% 35% -16.5 30% 32% -7.3
19.03.24 Capital FC TO vs Tocantinopolis 2-3 31% 36% -13.7 28% 33% -17.4 41% 43% -3.4
04.02.25 Araguaina FR vs Batalhao FC TO 2-1 50% 62% -19.7 26% 29% -12.8 24% 21% 17.4
05.02.25 Uniao Carmolandense vs Capital FC TO 1-0 41% 45% -10.4 28% 32% -14.1 32% 34% -6.9
08.02.25 Batalhao FC TO vs Gurupi EC TO 1-1 31% 35% -10.7 27% 32% -15.8 42% 44% -6.6
09.02.25 Bela Vista vs Araguaina FR 1-4 27% 30% -9.9 26% 31% -16.6 47% 51% -9.0
09.02.25 Capital FC TO vs Tocantins 1-0 56% 65% -14.5 22% 24% -6.0 22% 23% -5.9
15.02.25 Uniao Carmolandense vs Gurupi EC TO 0-3 47% 54% -13.1 28% 33% -15.1 25% 25% -1.2
16.02.25 Araguaina FR vs Tocantins 2-0 63% 75% -14.9 21% 22% -3.8 15% 14% 6.0
22.02.25 Capital FC TO vs Tocantinopolis 2-3 30% 34% -11.7 28% 34% -17.6 42% 44% -5.2
01.03.25 Tocantinopolis vs Gurupi EC TO 1-1 52% 60% -12.6 29% 34% -15.0 19% 18% 5.5
01.03.25 Uniao Carmolandense vs Araguaina FR 2-0 40% 45% -12.5 27% 32% -15.0 33% 35% -6.5
08.03.25 Araguaina FR vs Tocantinopolis 0-1 36% 42% -14.6 28% 33% -16.8 37% 38% -2.9
08.03.25 Batalhao FC TO vs Bela Vista 1-1 54% 65% -16.4 24% 26% -8.0 22% 22% 3.5
09.03.25 Uniao Carmolandense vs Tocantins 2-1 69% 83% -15.9 19% 18% 3.1 12% 10% 17.7
12.03.25 Tocantinopolis vs Uniao Carmolandense 3-0 49% 57% -14.9 28% 32% -14.8 24% 24% 0.2
15.03.25 Capital FC TO vs Araguaina FR 1-0 41% 48% -13.0 27% 31% -13.9 32% 33% -5.0
15.03.25 Tocantinopolis vs Batalhao FC TO 4-2 62% 74% -15.6 22% 23% -4.5 16% 14% 11.3
19.03.25 Araguaina FR vs Capital FC TO 1-2 39% 44% -11.6 29% 36% -17.5 31% 33% -6.2
19.03.25 Uniao Carmolandense vs Tocantinopolis 1-0 30% 33% -8.8 27% 31% -15.2 43% 48% -9.6
23.03.25 Capital FC TO vs Araguaina FR 0-3 38% 42% -10.2 28% 33% -15.6 34% 37% -8.3
26.03.25 Tocantinopolis vs Uniao Carmolandense 0-0 52% 60% -13.1 26% 30% -12.8 21% 22% -2.5
05.04.25 Uniao Carmolandense vs Araguaina FR 0-0 30% 31% -2.9 32% 39% -19.1 38% 42% -9.0
20.12.25 Gurupi EC TO vs Tocantinopolis 1-2 16% 15% 7.5 23% 28% -15.7 61% 68% -11.4
27.12.25 Araguaina FR vs Tocantinopolis 2-1 40% 45% -12.9 31% 38% -18.3 30% 29% 0.5
30.12.25 Tocantinopolis vs Araguaina FR 1-0 45% 52% -13.0 30% 36% -16.8 25% 24% 3.5
17.01.26 Gurupi EC TO vs Palmas FR 1-0 57% 71% -19.9 23% 24% -6.6 20% 16% 25.2
17.01.26 Uniao Carmolandense vs Tocantinopolis 0-0 25% 26% -4.2 33% 42% -21.9 42% 44% -5.9
24.01.26 Araguaina FR vs Gurupi EC TO 2-0 53% 60% -11.1 28% 32% -14.2 19% 20% -2.9
31.01.26 Araguaina FR vs Palmas FR 0-1 69% 86% -19.6 16% 14% 18.4 14% 10% 43.8
31.01.26 Gurupi EC TO vs Uniao Carmolandense 2-1 32% 33% -5.5 31% 38% -18.6 38% 42% -9.3
31.01.26 Tocantinopolis vs Guarai SC 2-0 76% 92% -16.7 16% 14% 16.6 8% 3% 118.1
07.02.26 Uniao Carmolandense vs Bela Vista 3-0 54% 62% -13.0 26% 30% -12.6 19% 19% 0.5
21.02.26 Gurupi EC TO vs Tocantinopolis 0-2 31% 34% -10.9 30% 37% -19.0 39% 41% -3.7
22.02.26 Bela Vista vs Araguaina FR 1-1 23% 26% -10.6 26% 32% -18.9 51% 55% -6.8
07.03.26 Araguaina FR vs Uniao Carmolandense 0-2 41% 45% -10.1 29% 34% -15.7 31% 33% -8.4
07.03.26 Tocantinopolis vs Capital FC TO 2-1 52% 61% -14.6 25% 29% -11.0 23% 23% 0.4
21.03.26 Tocantinopolis vs Capital FC TO 2-2 54% 63% -14.3 27% 31% -12.6 19% 17% 8.7
03.04.26 Uniao Carmolandense vs Tocantinopolis 1-1 31% 35% -9.7 34% 43% -21.7 34% 34% -0.0

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Araguaina FR 1680.40
2 Guarai SC 1600.00
3 Tocantinopolis 1548.09
4 Uniao Carmolandense 1479.61
5 Capital FC TO 1451.12
6 Palmas FR 1428.20
7 Gurupi EC TO 1413.32
8 Bela Vista 1300.76

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Araguaina FR 1517.89
2 Tocantinopolis 1450.06
3 Uniao Carmolandense 1415.25
4 Gurupi EC TO 1369.31
5 Capital FC TO 1368.83
6 Bela Vista 1225.66
7 Palmas FR 1116.41
8 Guarai SC 996.32