ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 165
Avg Goals 2.26
Avg Home 1.16
Avg Away 1.10
Home Win % 35.8%
Draw % 31.5%
Away Win % 32.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 165
Avg Brier Score 0.6489
Pick Accuracy 39.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6453
Market Brier 0.6564
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 13
Value Bet Hit Rate 15.4%
ROI (flat stake) 9.6%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 69.2% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 10 of 165 matches had at least one · staked 13.00, profit 1.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
away 9 22.2% 9.00 5.25 58.3%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.8% 0.0% 1
10–20% 17.0% 20.6% 34
20–30% 26.5% 28.3% 184
30–40% 33.5% 34.1% 164
40–50% 45.0% 35.3% 68
50–60% 54.5% 57.1% 35
60–70% 62.9% 66.7% 9
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
18.01.24 Porto Vitoria ES vs Rio Branco ES 1-0 25% 26% -3.9 26% 26% 0.6 48% 60% -19.0
19.01.24 Real Noroeste vs Jaguares EC ES 1-2 58% 75% -22.5 23% 21% 11.4 18% 15% 23.3
20.01.24 Nova Venecia vs Rio Branco-VN 1-0 35% 38% -9.6 30% 31% -5.1 36% 43% -16.5
20.01.24 Serra FC vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 0-1 42% 49% -14.2 30% 31% -5.2 28% 32% -11.7
20.01.24 Vitoria FC vs Estrela do Norte 2-0 51% 62% -19.0 28% 29% -1.9 21% 21% 2.4
24.01.24 Vitoria FC vs Serra FC 3-1 52% 65% -19.7 27% 27% 0.5 21% 20% 3.5
25.01.24 Rio Branco ES vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 4-0 45% 53% -15.2 31% 33% -7.8 25% 27% -8.9
27.01.24 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Jaguares EC ES 0-0 43% 51% -16.4 29% 30% -4.1 28% 31% -8.8
27.01.24 Nova Venecia vs Vitoria FC 2-2 26% 29% -8.0 28% 29% -3.7 45% 54% -16.0
28.01.24 Porto Vitoria ES vs Rio Branco-VN 2-1 37% 42% -12.4 30% 31% -5.3 33% 39% -14.7
28.01.24 Real Noroeste vs Estrela do Norte 1-0 42% 51% -18.3 30% 31% -5.0 28% 29% -3.5
28.01.24 Serra FC vs Rio Branco ES 1-2 19% 17% 11.2 25% 24% 2.9 56% 71% -20.5
30.01.24 Nova Venecia vs Serra FC 1-1 54% 65% -17.6 27% 28% -1.2 19% 18% 2.7
31.01.24 Rio Branco-VN vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 3-3 38% 43% -10.8 32% 35% -8.7 30% 35% -14.0
31.01.24 Vitoria FC vs Real Noroeste 2-3 48% 57% -16.8 29% 30% -4.0 23% 24% -4.3
02.02.24 Estrela do Norte vs Porto Vitoria ES 1-1 33% 38% -12.6 30% 32% -6.2 37% 42% -12.9
03.02.24 Rio Branco ES vs Rio Branco-VN 1-0 54% 65% -17.4 27% 27% -0.4 19% 20% -2.9
03.02.24 Serra FC vs Jaguares EC ES 5-0 43% 52% -16.9 30% 31% -4.7 27% 29% -4.8
04.02.24 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Estrela do Norte 2-0 40% 48% -16.7 31% 33% -7.6 30% 32% -8.4
04.02.24 Real Noroeste vs Nova Venecia 1-1 47% 59% -19.7 29% 30% -3.8 24% 23% 4.0
05.02.24 Porto Vitoria ES vs Vitoria FC 0-0 28% 31% -8.2 29% 30% -4.5 43% 51% -16.5
06.02.24 Rio Branco-VN vs Jaguares EC ES 0-0 43% 52% -16.5 28% 29% -1.6 29% 31% -8.4
07.02.24 Real Noroeste vs Serra FC 5-1 48% 58% -17.6 28% 29% -3.4 24% 25% -5.3
08.02.24 Estrela do Norte vs Rio Branco ES 0-1 23% 24% -7.2 29% 30% -5.7 49% 57% -14.6
08.02.24 Nova Venecia vs Porto Vitoria ES 1-3 40% 49% -17.0 30% 32% -6.6 29% 32% -8.8
08.02.24 Vitoria FC vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 1-2 52% 63% -17.5 28% 29% -3.0 20% 21% -3.5
10.02.24 Rio Branco-VN vs Real Noroeste 1-1 29% 33% -11.7 29% 31% -6.2 41% 49% -15.4
15.02.24 Porto Vitoria ES vs Real Noroeste 0-2 38% 44% -14.8 31% 33% -7.3 31% 35% -10.3
17.02.24 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Nova Venecia 1-1 39% 47% -17.2 31% 33% -7.2 31% 32% -5.4
17.02.24 Serra FC vs Rio Branco-VN 0-1 44% 53% -17.2 29% 30% -4.6 28% 30% -9.1
18.02.24 Rio Branco ES vs Vitoria FC 1-0 39% 45% -13.7 30% 32% -6.0 30% 34% -11.7
21.02.24 Porto Vitoria ES vs Serra FC 2-1 46% 56% -16.9 29% 31% -4.9 25% 26% -6.6
24.02.24 Vitoria FC vs Jaguares EC ES 0-0 58% 71% -17.9 26% 25% 2.1 16% 15% 5.8
25.02.24 Nova Venecia vs Rio Branco ES 0-2 28% 32% -12.1 29% 31% -5.3 42% 49% -12.9
25.02.24 Real Noroeste vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 2-2 47% 57% -18.1 29% 30% -4.2 24% 25% -3.5
27.02.24 Estrela do Norte vs Rio Branco-VN 0-0 40% 47% -15.1 31% 34% -7.8 29% 32% -9.3
02.03.24 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Porto Vitoria ES 2-0 38% 45% -15.6 32% 36% -9.2 29% 31% -6.5
02.03.24 Rio Branco ES vs Real Noroeste 0-1 41% 49% -15.4 30% 32% -5.5 28% 30% -6.7
02.03.24 Rio Branco-VN vs Vitoria FC 2-1 34% 40% -15.5 32% 35% -9.0 34% 38% -8.6
02.03.24 Serra FC vs Estrela do Norte 1-1 50% 62% -19.8 28% 29% -2.0 22% 21% 3.9
08.03.24 Jaguares EC ES vs Porto Vitoria ES 3-2 34% 40% -15.5 31% 34% -8.8 35% 38% -9.6
09.03.24 Nova Venecia vs Rio Branco ES 1-2 24% 26% -6.2 29% 31% -5.5 47% 56% -15.6
10.03.24 Rio Branco-VN vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 0-0 31% 35% -11.5 32% 36% -9.5 37% 42% -12.0
11.03.24 Vitoria FC vs Real Noroeste 3-1 37% 43% -16.0 31% 33% -7.7 33% 36% -10.1
15.03.24 Porto Vitoria ES vs Jaguares EC ES 3-2 43% 51% -16.3 30% 32% -6.0 27% 29% -6.3
16.03.24 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Rio Branco-VN 0-1 42% 49% -14.9 32% 35% -8.4 27% 29% -7.1
16.03.24 Real Noroeste vs Vitoria FC 2-4 39% 45% -14.6 30% 31% -4.8 31% 35% -10.4
17.03.24 Rio Branco ES vs Nova Venecia 1-1 50% 61% -18.0 27% 28% -1.2 23% 24% -4.0
23.03.24 Vitoria FC vs Rio Branco-VN 0-1 53% 65% -18.6 28% 29% -2.4 20% 19% 2.7
24.03.24 Porto Vitoria ES vs Rio Branco ES 1-2 25% 26% -6.0 30% 32% -7.1 45% 54% -16.2
18.01.25 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Vitoria FC 1-0 36% 43% -15.3 30% 32% -6.4 34% 38% -10.5
18.01.25 Nova Venecia vs Rio Branco ES 1-0 20% 20% 2.1 28% 29% -2.8 52% 62% -17.1
19.01.25 Rio Branco-VN vs Vilavelhense ES 1-1 50% 62% -19.1 28% 29% -2.0 22% 22% 1.5
20.01.25 Jaguares EC ES vs Capixaba SC ES 0-2 38% 45% -17.0 31% 33% -7.5 31% 34% -7.2
20.01.25 Porto Vitoria ES vs Real Noroeste 1-1 40% 49% -17.7 31% 34% -7.6 29% 29% -3.0
24.01.25 Capixaba SC ES vs Nova Venecia 2-2 39% 45% -15.2 33% 37% -10.4 28% 30% -6.7
25.01.25 Rio Branco ES vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 0-0 49% 58% -16.6 30% 32% -6.1 21% 21% -0.3
25.01.25 Vitoria FC vs Porto Vitoria ES 1-1 37% 43% -13.4 31% 34% -7.9 32% 36% -12.2
26.01.25 Vilavelhense ES vs Jaguares EC ES 1-1 32% 36% -11.3 31% 34% -7.8 37% 43% -13.0
28.01.25 Porto Vitoria ES vs Rio Branco ES 1-1 33% 38% -13.1 31% 33% -7.6 36% 42% -12.6
29.01.25 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Capixaba SC ES 1-1 49% 61% -18.5 30% 31% -4.1 21% 20% 5.6
29.01.25 Real Noroeste vs Vilavelhense ES 2-1 54% 67% -19.2 27% 28% -1.1 19% 17% 7.3
30.01.25 Rio Branco-VN vs Vitoria FC 1-1 36% 43% -16.2 31% 34% -8.7 32% 35% -8.5
31.01.25 Capixaba SC ES vs Porto Vitoria ES 1-0 24% 26% -6.4 29% 31% -6.3 47% 56% -15.9
01.02.25 Vitoria FC vs Real Noroeste 1-2 42% 51% -17.8 31% 33% -7.6 28% 29% -5.8
02.02.25 Jaguares EC ES vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 0-2 27% 30% -10.3 31% 33% -8.0 42% 49% -13.6
02.02.25 Rio Branco ES vs Rio Branco-VN 0-0 46% 55% -16.6 32% 36% -9.3 22% 22% 0.1
02.02.25 Vilavelhense ES vs Nova Venecia 2-0 29% 33% -11.7 31% 34% -9.1 39% 45% -13.7
05.02.25 Porto Vitoria ES vs Jaguares EC ES 3-1 58% 70% -18.2 26% 26% 0.2 16% 15% 8.1
05.02.25 Vitoria FC vs Vilavelhense ES 4-0 53% 65% -17.4 28% 29% -2.1 19% 18% 3.1
06.02.25 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Nova Venecia 2-0 47% 56% -17.6 30% 31% -4.7 24% 24% -0.7
06.02.25 Rio Branco-VN vs Capixaba SC ES 1-0 40% 47% -14.9 32% 35% -8.6 29% 31% -8.6
08.02.25 Capixaba SC ES vs Real Noroeste 0-2 33% 38% -13.8 33% 36% -10.1 35% 38% -9.5
08.02.25 Jaguares EC ES vs Rio Branco-VN 0-2 28% 31% -10.3 30% 32% -7.2 42% 50% -15.1
09.02.25 Nova Venecia vs Porto Vitoria ES 2-1 23% 24% -4.1 29% 30% -5.4 48% 58% -17.1
09.02.25 Rio Branco ES vs Vitoria FC 1-1 40% 48% -15.1 31% 34% -7.9 28% 31% -9.2
09.02.25 Vilavelhense ES vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 0-4 20% 20% -0.6 29% 30% -5.6 52% 61% -16.0
11.02.25 Real Noroeste vs Jaguares EC ES 1-1 55% 68% -19.1 26% 26% 1.9 18% 17% 6.3
12.02.25 Vitoria FC vs Capixaba SC ES 1-2 50% 60% -17.7 29% 30% -4.3 21% 22% -1.5
13.02.25 Porto Vitoria ES vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 0-3 39% 45% -14.2 31% 33% -7.7 30% 34% -12.4
13.02.25 Rio Branco ES vs Vilavelhense ES 1-0 61% 75% -18.6 24% 23% 5.2 15% 14% 7.7
14.02.25 Rio Branco-VN vs Nova Venecia 2-0 50% 62% -18.7 29% 30% -4.0 21% 20% 3.8
15.02.25 Capixaba SC ES vs Rio Branco ES 2-4 24% 25% -5.7 31% 34% -8.6 45% 53% -14.5
16.02.25 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Rio Branco-VN 2-1 42% 50% -16.1 31% 34% -7.7 27% 29% -6.2
16.02.25 Nova Venecia vs Real Noroeste 0-2 29% 34% -13.1 30% 32% -7.1 41% 47% -12.8
17.02.25 Porto Vitoria ES vs Vilavelhense ES 0-1 61% 74% -17.6 24% 22% 6.2 15% 15% 3.5
18.02.25 Jaguares EC ES vs Vitoria FC 1-0 24% 26% -8.3 29% 31% -6.2 47% 56% -15.4
19.02.25 Real Noroeste vs Rio Branco ES 1-1 30% 33% -10.9 31% 34% -8.2 39% 45% -13.8
23.02.25 Real Noroeste vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 1-1 34% 38% -12.7 31% 34% -7.8 35% 40% -12.1
23.02.25 Rio Branco ES vs Jaguares EC ES 3-0 60% 72% -17.9 25% 24% 4.0 16% 15% 6.2
23.02.25 Rio Branco-VN vs Porto Vitoria ES 0-1 39% 47% -16.1 31% 34% -7.3 30% 31% -5.4
23.02.25 Vilavelhense ES vs Capixaba SC ES 1-2 34% 40% -14.3 31% 33% -7.5 35% 39% -11.1
23.02.25 Vitoria FC vs Nova Venecia 5-1 54% 67% -18.6 27% 27% 0.4 19% 18% 4.1
05.03.25 Vilavelhense ES vs Desportiva Ferroviaria 1-4 16% 15% 8.0 25% 25% -0.1 59% 72% -17.9
06.03.25 Vitoria FC vs Rio Branco-VN 1-1 42% 52% -18.6 31% 33% -7.5 27% 28% -2.7
07.03.25 Porto Vitoria ES vs Real Noroeste 1-0 40% 47% -14.6 31% 33% -7.6 30% 33% -11.5
07.03.25 Rio Branco ES vs Capixaba SC ES 2-1 55% 67% -17.7 27% 27% -0.5 18% 17% 2.9
08.03.25 Desportiva Ferroviaria vs Vilavelhense ES 2-1 66% 81% -18.1 22% 20% 10.4 12% 10% 19.2
09.03.25 Capixaba SC ES vs Rio Branco ES 0-1 21% 21% -2.1 29% 30% -5.7 51% 61% -16.1
09.03.25 Rio Branco-VN vs Vitoria FC 0-0 36% 42% -15.0 33% 37% -10.7 31% 34% -8.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 165 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Porto Vitoria ES 1776.45
2 Vitoria FC 1735.51
3 Rio Branco ES 1720.81
4 Real Noroeste 1574.58
5 Desportiva Ferroviaria 1560.03
6 Serra FC 1539.71
7 Rio Branco-VN 1512.13
8 Vilavelhense ES 1485.41
9 Forte FC ES 1447.74
10 Capixaba SC ES 1370.31

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Vitoria FC 1661.09
2 Rio Branco ES 1639.83
3 Porto Vitoria ES 1572.19
4 Serra FC 1556.90
5 Desportiva Ferroviaria 1521.74
6 Rio Branco-VN 1519.04
7 Real Noroeste 1499.21
8 Forte FC ES 1409.78
9 Vilavelhense ES 1392.97
10 Capixaba SC ES 1384.05