ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 215
Avg Goals 2.44
Avg Home 1.35
Avg Away 1.09
Home Win % 43.7%
Draw % 27.4%
Away Win % 28.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 215
Avg Brier Score 0.5689
Pick Accuracy 54.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5719
Market Brier 0.5667
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 77
Value Bet Hit Rate 7.8%
ROI (flat stake) -46.7%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 50 of 215 matches had at least one · staked 77.00, profit -35.95 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 16 12.5% 16.00 -2.50 -15.6%
draw 27 7.4% 27.00 -17.20 -63.7%
away 34 5.9% 34.00 -16.25 -47.8%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.6% 0.0% 16
10–20% 15.7% 7.3% 82
20–30% 26.1% 29.9% 224
30–40% 33.4% 30.8% 159
40–50% 44.9% 44.1% 68
50–60% 54.5% 52.0% 50
60–70% 63.5% 69.0% 29
70–80% 75.1% 100.0% 12
80–90% 81.1% 100.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
17.01.24 Botafogo-RJ vs Madureira 1-0 66% 74% -10.6 22% 22% 2.4 12% 11% 3.8
17.01.24 Portuguesa RJ vs Bangu AC 1-0 51% 56% -9.4 28% 29% -3.3 20% 22% -6.3
18.01.24 Flamengo vs Audax Rio 4-0 78% 88% -10.8 14% 11% 26.6 7% 6% 16.5
18.01.24 Nova Iguacu vs Sampaio Correa RJ 2-1 42% 51% -15.9 30% 30% -1.3 28% 26% 5.0
18.01.24 Vasco da Gama vs Boavista RJ 2-0 52% 56% -7.2 28% 29% -4.0 20% 22% -9.1
19.01.24 Volta Redonda vs Fluminense 1-1 33% 39% -16.8 31% 33% -8.3 37% 41% -9.8
20.01.24 Botafogo-RJ vs Bangu AC 2-0 70% 79% -11.2 20% 18% 8.1 10% 9% 8.8
20.01.24 Madureira vs Audax Rio 1-0 41% 45% -9.3 30% 31% -2.9 28% 31% -7.6
21.01.24 Fluminense vs Portuguesa RJ 2-1 52% 59% -12.0 27% 27% 1.4 21% 22% -2.5
21.01.24 Nova Iguacu vs Flamengo 1-1 29% 36% -19.1 28% 30% -6.3 43% 47% -8.1
21.01.24 Volta Redonda vs Boavista RJ 2-3 62% 72% -14.3 24% 22% 7.2 14% 12% 15.8
22.01.24 Sampaio Correa RJ vs Vasco da Gama 3-3 25% 27% -6.1 30% 31% -3.6 45% 50% -10.3
24.01.24 Bangu AC vs Nova Iguacu 2-3 33% 38% -11.8 32% 33% -5.1 35% 37% -5.3
24.01.24 Portuguesa RJ vs Sampaio Correa RJ 1-0 48% 56% -13.2 29% 29% 0.0 23% 23% 0.4
25.01.24 Boavista RJ vs Botafogo-RJ 1-0 16% 14% 12.7 26% 25% 4.0 58% 67% -13.7
26.01.24 Audax Rio vs Fluminense 0-1 19% 19% -1.8 26% 25% 2.7 56% 63% -12.1
26.01.24 Vasco da Gama vs Madureira 2-0 68% 78% -12.9 21% 19% 10.0 12% 10% 12.4
27.01.24 Botafogo-RJ vs Sampaio Correa RJ 2-0 66% 78% -15.8 22% 19% 14.4 12% 10% 30.4
27.01.24 Portuguesa RJ vs Flamengo 0-0 29% 32% -8.7 29% 29% -0.7 41% 45% -9.1
28.01.24 Bangu AC vs Vasco da Gama 2-2 14% 12% 19.8 23% 20% 12.8 63% 75% -15.1
28.01.24 Fluminense vs Nova Iguacu 3-0 53% 62% -14.5 27% 27% 2.3 20% 18% 7.7
28.01.24 Madureira vs Volta Redonda 3-1 30% 34% -12.9 30% 31% -3.6 40% 42% -5.5
30.01.24 Audax Rio vs Boavista RJ 0-1 27% 27% 0.2 30% 31% -2.0 43% 50% -13.8
31.01.24 Botafogo-RJ vs Portuguesa RJ 1-1 61% 71% -14.2 25% 24% 5.2 14% 12% 20.0
31.01.24 Nova Iguacu vs Vasco da Gama 2-0 17% 15% 11.2 25% 23% 7.3 58% 68% -15.1
01.02.24 Madureira vs Boavista RJ 3-0 39% 43% -10.4 30% 30% -1.7 31% 34% -7.8
01.02.24 Sampaio Correa RJ vs Flamengo 0-2 7% 5% 57.1 14% 8% 64.0 79% 92% -14.1
01.02.24 Volta Redonda vs Audax Rio 2-0 56% 65% -13.8 26% 26% 3.1 18% 17% 7.8
02.02.24 Fluminense vs Bangu AC 4-1 78% 89% -13.0 15% 11% 39.6 7% 5% 52.5
03.02.24 Botafogo-RJ vs Nova Iguacu 2-2 65% 76% -14.7 23% 21% 9.3 13% 10% 22.6
04.02.24 Boavista RJ vs Fluminense 2-2 15% 13% 13.8 24% 22% 8.8 61% 72% -15.0
04.02.24 Sampaio Correa RJ vs Volta Redonda 0-2 24% 25% -3.3 29% 29% -1.3 47% 53% -12.0
04.02.24 Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo 0-0 21% 18% 13.1 26% 25% 5.6 53% 64% -16.7
05.02.24 Audax Rio vs Bangu AC 0-1 37% 38% -4.8 31% 32% -3.6 32% 36% -11.2
05.02.24 Madureira vs Portuguesa RJ 0-0 33% 37% -10.6 30% 31% -2.7 36% 39% -7.0
07.02.24 Bangu AC vs Volta Redonda 1-1 26% 28% -7.0 29% 29% -0.1 46% 51% -9.7
08.02.24 Flamengo vs Botafogo-RJ 1-0 53% 61% -12.5 27% 27% 1.3 20% 19% 2.7
08.02.24 Nova Iguacu vs Madureira 1-0 47% 54% -13.2 29% 29% -0.8 24% 24% 0.4
09.02.24 Boavista RJ vs Portuguesa RJ 2-2 36% 41% -11.4 30% 31% -3.1 34% 36% -7.8
09.02.24 Fluminense vs Sampaio Correa RJ 1-0 81% 93% -13.0 12% 7% 67.8 6% 4% 62.2
09.02.24 Vasco da Gama vs Audax Rio 1-0 73% 83% -11.4 18% 16% 12.8 9% 8% 14.0
10.02.24 Flamengo vs Volta Redonda 3-0 68% 79% -14.2 21% 18% 13.6 12% 10% 17.5
14.02.24 Sampaio Correa RJ vs Madureira 2-1 30% 32% -7.7 29% 29% -1.1 41% 47% -11.6
14.02.24 Volta Redonda vs Botafogo-RJ 0-3 22% 23% -1.7 29% 29% -0.2 49% 56% -11.6
15.02.24 Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama 0-0 48% 56% -14.3 28% 28% 1.4 24% 24% 1.7
15.02.24 Nova Iguacu vs Boavista RJ 1-1 44% 50% -11.9 29% 29% -1.2 27% 29% -5.8
15.02.24 Portuguesa RJ vs Audax Rio 1-0 60% 70% -14.1 25% 23% 6.5 15% 13% 15.6
16.02.24 Bangu AC vs Flamengo 0-3 7% 4% 58.0 14% 10% 48.8 79% 91% -13.1
17.02.24 Madureira vs Fluminense 0-1 15% 14% 3.8 23% 22% 6.6 62% 71% -12.6
18.02.24 Botafogo-RJ vs Vasco da Gama 2-4 36% 38% -7.6 31% 32% -4.2 34% 38% -11.1
18.02.24 Volta Redonda vs Portuguesa RJ 1-1 38% 43% -11.7 30% 31% -2.9 31% 33% -6.2
19.02.24 Audax Rio vs Nova Iguacu 1-2 22% 21% 3.4 29% 29% -1.2 49% 57% -13.9
20.02.24 Sampaio Correa RJ vs Bangu AC 2-0 43% 49% -12.4 30% 31% -2.9 27% 28% -3.1
21.02.24 Flamengo vs Boavista RJ 4-0 80% 91% -11.9 13% 10% 41.0 6% 5% 36.1
24.02.24 Audax Rio vs Botafogo-RJ 0-2 12% 10% 21.1 22% 20% 9.8 66% 77% -13.6
24.02.24 Portuguesa RJ vs Nova Iguacu 1-2 42% 48% -11.3 30% 31% -2.7 27% 29% -4.3
24.02.24 Vasco da Gama vs Volta Redonda 2-1 62% 72% -13.1 24% 22% 5.8 14% 13% 8.5
25.02.24 Bangu AC vs Madureira 2-1 26% 27% -2.1 30% 31% -2.5 43% 49% -11.7
25.02.24 Flamengo vs Fluminense 2-0 49% 56% -13.4 29% 29% -0.2 23% 23% 0.4
26.02.24 Boavista RJ vs Sampaio Correa RJ 3-2 45% 51% -12.6 29% 29% -1.6 26% 28% -5.6
02.03.24 Audax Rio vs Sampaio Correa RJ 0-4 26% 26% 2.0 29% 29% -0.7 45% 53% -15.2
02.03.24 Flamengo vs Madureira 3-0 82% 93% -11.3 12% 8% 52.2 6% 4% 47.2
03.03.24 Boavista RJ vs Bangu AC 5-3 50% 57% -12.6 28% 28% 0.7 22% 22% -0.5
03.03.24 Fluminense vs Botafogo-RJ 2-4 40% 44% -10.6 31% 32% -4.0 29% 31% -6.3
03.03.24 Vasco da Gama vs Portuguesa RJ 4-0 63% 73% -14.0 23% 22% 7.6 14% 12% 14.3
03.03.24 Volta Redonda vs Nova Iguacu 1-2 41% 47% -11.0 30% 31% -2.5 28% 29% -4.4
09.03.24 Portuguesa RJ vs Boavista RJ 1-1 46% 53% -12.1 28% 29% -0.4 25% 27% -5.1
10.03.24 Fluminense vs Flamengo 0-2 27% 29% -4.8 30% 30% -1.9 43% 49% -11.7
10.03.24 Sampaio Correa RJ vs Botafogo-RJ 1-2 19% 19% -1.2 27% 26% 1.1 55% 62% -11.6
10.03.24 Vasco da Gama vs Nova Iguacu 1-1 62% 70% -12.6 23% 21% 9.0 16% 15% 4.7
16.03.24 Boavista RJ vs Portuguesa RJ 3-2 36% 40% -9.5 31% 32% -3.8 33% 36% -8.2
17.03.24 Botafogo-RJ vs Sampaio Correa RJ 2-1 66% 76% -13.2 21% 19% 12.2 13% 11% 12.5
17.03.24 Flamengo vs Fluminense 0-0 52% 60% -12.9 27% 27% 1.1 20% 20% 1.1
17.03.24 Nova Iguacu vs Vasco da Gama 1-0 19% 17% 7.3 25% 24% 6.5 56% 65% -14.4
27.03.24 Boavista RJ vs Botafogo-RJ 0-4 18% 17% 6.1 26% 24% 4.8 57% 66% -13.7
30.03.24 Nova Iguacu vs Flamengo 0-3 13% 11% 19.6 21% 18% 15.7 66% 78% -14.4
11.01.25 Bangu AC vs Portuguesa RJ 0-1 24% 26% -7.2 29% 29% -2.0 47% 53% -9.9
11.01.25 Botafogo-RJ vs Marica FC 1-2 55% 61% -10.2 25% 25% 1.9 19% 21% -6.5
11.01.25 Nova Iguacu vs Vasco da Gama 1-1 31% 33% -8.3 30% 31% -2.3 39% 43% -9.4
12.01.25 Flamengo vs Boavista RJ 1-2 55% 59% -7.2 25% 25% 0.4 20% 23% -12.1
12.01.25 Fluminense vs Sampaio Correa RJ 0-0 56% 63% -10.9 25% 25% 1.6 18% 19% -4.5
12.01.25 Madureira vs Volta Redonda 2-0 26% 27% -4.3 30% 31% -2.8 44% 49% -10.3
14.01.25 Botafogo-RJ vs Portuguesa RJ 2-0 43% 44% -4.3 30% 31% -3.7 28% 32% -13.6
15.01.25 Marica FC vs Boavista RJ 1-0 35% 33% 4.4 31% 33% -6.4 34% 42% -18.4
15.01.25 Nova Iguacu vs Sampaio Correa RJ 1-0 49% 56% -11.6 29% 30% -2.9 21% 22% -1.4
16.01.25 Madureira vs Flamengo 1-1 28% 30% -9.0 28% 29% -0.3 44% 49% -9.9
16.01.25 Volta Redonda vs Fluminense 1-0 36% 41% -11.0 30% 31% -2.7 33% 36% -6.8
17.01.25 Vasco da Gama vs Bangu AC 0-0 55% 61% -11.2 26% 26% 1.9 19% 20% -3.1
18.01.25 Fluminense vs Marica FC 1-1 52% 58% -11.8 29% 29% -1.7 20% 19% 2.5
18.01.25 Sampaio Correa RJ vs Botafogo-RJ 2-1 21% 20% 3.2 28% 28% 0.3 52% 60% -14.5
19.01.25 Boavista RJ vs Vasco da Gama 1-1 33% 35% -4.2 29% 29% -0.8 37% 43% -13.9
19.01.25 Portuguesa RJ vs Madureira 2-1 47% 53% -10.5 30% 31% -3.2 23% 23% -1.9
20.01.25 Bangu AC vs Volta Redonda 0-1 21% 21% -0.1 28% 29% -0.7 51% 58% -12.5
20.01.25 Flamengo vs Nova Iguacu 1-2 43% 48% -10.5 30% 31% -2.6 27% 29% -6.7
22.01.25 Bangu AC vs Flamengo 0-5 21% 21% 1.0 28% 29% -0.5 50% 58% -13.0
22.01.25 Marica FC vs Nova Iguacu 2-0 30% 30% -1.8 33% 35% -6.0 37% 43% -11.9
23.01.25 Botafogo-RJ vs Volta Redonda 1-2 48% 54% -11.7 29% 29% -1.3 23% 24% -2.3
24.01.25 Boavista RJ vs Sampaio Correa RJ 1-1 47% 53% -11.9 29% 29% -0.2 25% 26% -4.0
24.01.25 Portuguesa RJ vs Fluminense 1-3 16% 13% 25.4 25% 24% 6.8 58% 70% -17.1
24.01.25 Vasco da Gama vs Madureira 2-0 65% 78% -17.0 22% 18% 19.4 13% 10% 41.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 215 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

11 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Flamengo 2166.20
2 Vasco da Gama 1960.88
3 Fluminense 1948.96
4 Botafogo-RJ 1916.61
5 Portuguesa RJ 1788.41
6 Volta Redonda 1771.55
7 Boavista RJ 1722.96
8 Nova Iguacu 1715.40
9 Madureira 1715.24
10 Sampaio Correa RJ 1707.53
11 Bangu AC 1512.00

Away Ratings

11 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Flamengo 2085.93
2 Vasco da Gama 1890.55
3 Fluminense 1888.50
4 Botafogo-RJ 1835.02
5 Portuguesa RJ 1727.17
6 Sampaio Correa RJ 1691.60
7 Nova Iguacu 1680.54
8 Boavista RJ 1670.43
9 Madureira 1600.67
10 Volta Redonda 1599.65
11 Bangu AC 1449.92