ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 204
Avg Goals 2.02
Avg Home 1.06
Avg Away 0.96
Home Win % 36.8%
Draw % 31.9%
Away Win % 31.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 204
Avg Brier Score 0.6618
Pick Accuracy 38.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6670
Market Brier 0.6666
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 16
Value Bet Hit Rate 18.8%
ROI (flat stake) 112.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 75.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 15 of 204 matches had at least one · staked 16.00, profit 18.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 3 0.0% 3.00 -3.00 -100.0%
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 12 25.0% 12.00 22.00 183.3%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 17.1% 12.5% 8
20–30% 26.9% 29.3% 174
30–40% 33.8% 32.7% 336
40–50% 43.6% 44.4% 81
50–60% 52.8% 50.0% 12
60–70% 68.8% 0.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
02.08.23 Friburguense vs CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 1-0 29% 32% -8.6 32% 35% -8.1 38% 45% -15.8
02.08.23 Marica FC vs Cabofriense 1-2 38% 45% -15.5 33% 36% -8.7 29% 31% -7.2
02.08.23 Olaria AC vs Petropolis FC RJ 1-2 42% 51% -17.8 32% 34% -7.9 27% 28% -3.8
02.08.23 Resende FC vs Americano RJ 1-1 27% 27% -0.5 30% 32% -5.5 43% 53% -19.6
02.08.23 Sampaio Correa RJ vs America RJ 4-3 41% 49% -16.6 30% 32% -5.6 29% 31% -7.5
09.08.23 Petropolis FC RJ vs Olaria AC 0-1 41% 50% -17.9 31% 33% -6.8 28% 29% -5.2
12.08.23 Olaria AC vs Sampaio Correa RJ 0-0 41% 50% -17.4 32% 34% -7.6 27% 28% -3.3
19.08.23 Sampaio Correa RJ vs Olaria AC 3-1 41% 49% -16.6 33% 36% -8.7 26% 26% -0.7
24.09.23 Barra Mansa FC vs Bonsucesso FC 1-2 26% 27% -1.2 30% 31% -4.5 44% 55% -19.9
01.10.23 Bonsucesso FC vs AA Carapebus 1-0 50% 63% -20.9 28% 29% -2.1 22% 21% 5.5
18.05.24 America RJ vs Petropolis FC RJ 2-0 43% 53% -18.7 30% 31% -4.5 27% 29% -4.2
18.05.24 CEAC/Araruama FC RJ vs Cabofriense 0-2 29% 31% -6.6 30% 32% -5.7 41% 50% -18.3
18.05.24 Marica FC vs Olaria AC 2-0 49% 62% -21.2 28% 29% -1.2 23% 21% 8.1
18.05.24 Serrano RJ vs ArtSul 0-1 38% 45% -15.5 30% 32% -5.5 31% 34% -9.8
19.05.24 Resende FC vs Americano RJ 2-0 39% 47% -16.4 31% 34% -7.2 30% 32% -8.1
22.05.24 Audax Rio vs Duque de Caxias 1-1 29% 32% -9.5 30% 31% -4.7 41% 50% -17.9
25.05.24 Americano RJ vs Marica FC 0-0 22% 20% 10.1 30% 31% -3.6 48% 61% -21.2
25.05.24 ArtSul vs CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 0-1 49% 60% -19.4 30% 31% -4.5 22% 20% 8.1
25.05.24 Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ 1-0 42% 51% -17.9 30% 31% -4.1 28% 30% -6.4
25.05.24 Petropolis FC RJ vs Resende FC 1-0 44% 55% -19.6 30% 31% -4.6 26% 27% -1.6
26.05.24 Cabofriense vs America RJ 0-3 21% 19% 11.9 29% 29% -1.7 50% 63% -21.4
29.05.24 Olaria AC vs Audax Rio 0-1 41% 50% -17.5 32% 35% -8.5 27% 28% -4.1
01.06.24 CEAC/Araruama FC RJ vs Serrano RJ 1-1 29% 31% -7.3 33% 36% -8.7 39% 47% -16.4
01.06.24 Marica FC vs Petropolis FC RJ 4-1 43% 53% -18.2 32% 34% -7.1 25% 26% -0.7
01.06.24 Olaria AC vs Duque de Caxias 0-1 37% 43% -15.7 32% 34% -7.8 32% 35% -10.0
02.06.24 America RJ vs ArtSul 3-1 55% 70% -21.8 27% 27% 0.8 18% 14% 26.4
02.06.24 Resende FC vs Cabofriense 0-1 39% 45% -14.4 32% 34% -6.9 30% 32% -8.5
05.06.24 Audax Rio vs Americano RJ 0-0 39% 47% -16.1 33% 36% -8.8 28% 30% -6.2
08.06.24 Americano RJ vs Olaria AC 1-2 36% 42% -14.0 33% 37% -9.8 31% 34% -9.3
08.06.24 ArtSul vs Resende FC 2-2 38% 45% -16.3 30% 32% -5.5 31% 35% -9.7
08.06.24 Duque de Caxias vs CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 0-0 52% 66% -20.8 30% 31% -4.4 18% 14% 26.1
08.06.24 Serrano RJ vs America RJ 2-2 15% 10% 50.4 26% 24% 6.3 59% 76% -23.2
12.06.24 Cabofriense vs Marica FC 0-0 26% 27% -1.8 31% 33% -6.5 43% 53% -19.0
15.06.24 America RJ vs CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 0-1 69% 88% -22.2 20% 16% 26.2 11% 4% 152.3
15.06.24 Americano RJ vs Duque de Caxias 0-1 30% 32% -7.8 33% 36% -8.8 37% 43% -14.7
15.06.24 Marica FC vs ArtSul 1-1 53% 67% -21.6 28% 28% -0.3 20% 17% 18.0
15.06.24 Olaria AC vs Petropolis FC RJ 2-1 41% 50% -18.8 31% 34% -7.5 28% 29% -4.7
15.06.24 Resende FC vs Serrano RJ 1-1 48% 60% -20.1 29% 30% -3.8 23% 22% 4.5
19.06.24 Audax Rio vs Cabofriense 2-1 36% 42% -14.3 32% 35% -8.1 32% 35% -10.0
22.06.24 CEAC/Araruama FC RJ vs Resende FC 1-1 36% 43% -15.9 33% 36% -8.6 32% 34% -8.5
22.06.24 Duque de Caxias vs America RJ 1-0 23% 22% 3.7 30% 31% -3.2 47% 59% -19.8
22.06.24 Serrano RJ vs Marica FC 1-1 23% 22% 4.3 31% 32% -5.1 46% 58% -20.1
23.06.24 Cabofriense vs Olaria AC 1-2 39% 47% -16.1 32% 34% -7.5 29% 31% -6.8
23.06.24 Petropolis FC RJ vs Americano RJ 1-1 42% 51% -17.4 32% 35% -8.1 25% 26% -0.9
26.06.24 ArtSul vs Audax Rio 0-3 39% 48% -17.1 31% 34% -7.2 29% 31% -6.9
29.06.24 Americano RJ vs Cabofriense 1-0 34% 38% -11.1 33% 36% -9.3 33% 38% -12.9
29.06.24 Marica FC vs CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 1-0 49% 62% -20.3 30% 31% -4.7 21% 19% 10.5
29.06.24 Olaria AC vs ArtSul 4-2 45% 56% -19.9 30% 31% -4.5 25% 25% 0.7
30.06.24 Resende FC vs America RJ 0-0 28% 31% -8.9 30% 32% -5.8 41% 50% -17.8
03.07.24 Audax Rio vs Serrano RJ 2-1 38% 45% -15.5 33% 36% -9.7 29% 31% -7.9
06.07.24 America RJ vs Marica FC 1-2 44% 54% -18.1 30% 32% -6.1 25% 26% -3.3
06.07.24 ArtSul vs Americano RJ 1-1 44% 54% -19.1 30% 32% -5.8 26% 26% -1.8
06.07.24 Cabofriense vs Petropolis FC RJ 0-0 40% 49% -17.3 30% 32% -5.5 29% 31% -6.7
06.07.24 Duque de Caxias vs Resende FC 0-1 47% 59% -20.2 30% 31% -4.2 23% 22% 6.5
06.07.24 Serrano RJ vs Olaria AC 1-2 34% 38% -12.1 33% 36% -8.3 33% 38% -11.4
10.07.24 CEAC/Araruama FC RJ vs Audax Rio 1-0 33% 38% -11.7 33% 36% -9.2 34% 38% -12.5
13.07.24 Cabofriense vs Duque de Caxias 1-2 31% 34% -9.2 33% 36% -8.4 36% 43% -14.3
13.07.24 Marica FC vs Resende FC 1-0 48% 60% -20.6 30% 31% -4.7 22% 21% 7.3
13.07.24 Olaria AC vs CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 2-1 46% 57% -20.0 30% 32% -5.7 24% 23% 3.2
17.07.24 Audax Rio vs America RJ 1-1 29% 31% -8.2 33% 37% -9.6 38% 44% -14.9
20.07.24 CEAC/Araruama FC RJ vs Americano RJ 1-1 40% 49% -17.1 33% 36% -8.6 27% 28% -3.1
20.07.24 Duque de Caxias vs Marica FC 0-1 35% 41% -13.6 33% 37% -10.0 31% 35% -10.5
20.07.24 Serrano RJ vs Petropolis FC RJ 0-1 38% 44% -15.3 33% 36% -8.6 30% 32% -7.8
21.07.24 America RJ vs Olaria AC 0-1 45% 55% -18.5 30% 32% -5.7 25% 25% -0.6
24.07.24 Resende FC vs Audax Rio 3-3 41% 50% -17.3 31% 34% -7.2 27% 29% -4.7
27.07.24 Petropolis FC RJ vs Audax Rio 1-2 42% 52% -18.0 31% 34% -7.2 26% 27% -2.3
31.07.24 Americano RJ vs America RJ 0-0 43% 53% -19.3 30% 31% -4.5 27% 28% -2.8
31.07.24 Audax Rio vs Marica FC 0-1 24% 23% 3.9 31% 32% -5.1 46% 57% -19.9
31.07.24 Cabofriense vs Serrano RJ 1-1 29% 30% -4.4 30% 32% -5.7 41% 50% -18.8
31.07.24 Olaria AC vs Resende FC 3-3 54% 68% -21.7 28% 29% -1.6 18% 15% 23.5
31.07.24 Petropolis FC RJ vs CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 2-0 47% 60% -20.4 30% 31% -4.3 23% 21% 7.8
03.08.24 Duque de Caxias vs Olaria AC 0-0 38% 44% -15.4 31% 33% -6.8 31% 35% -10.6
04.08.24 Audax Rio vs Marica FC 1-0 25% 25% 0.4 31% 32% -5.0 44% 55% -19.0
10.08.24 Marica FC vs Audax Rio 4-3 51% 64% -20.2 29% 29% -2.4 20% 18% 12.6
11.08.24 Olaria AC vs Duque de Caxias 1-0 41% 50% -17.2 33% 36% -9.1 26% 26% -0.5
17.08.24 Olaria AC vs Marica FC 1-1 36% 42% -13.3 32% 35% -7.9 32% 35% -10.1
25.08.24 Marica FC vs Olaria AC 0-0 40% 48% -16.3 33% 36% -8.4 27% 29% -3.9
17.05.25 America RJ vs Cabofriense 1-1 45% 56% -20.6 30% 31% -3.9 25% 24% 3.9
17.05.25 Olaria AC vs Bangu AC 0-2 36% 41% -12.3 33% 36% -9.7 31% 36% -12.1
17.05.25 Sao Goncalo vs Americano RJ 2-1 40% 49% -17.6 30% 32% -6.1 30% 32% -8.5
18.05.25 Audax Rio vs Resende FC 2-1 32% 36% -10.9 34% 38% -10.2 34% 39% -12.6
18.05.25 CEAC/Araruama FC RJ vs Perolas Negras 0-0 39% 47% -16.1 30% 31% -4.0 31% 34% -8.6
20.05.25 Perolas Negras vs America RJ 0-1 28% 29% -3.8 33% 36% -8.2 40% 48% -16.6
21.05.25 Americano RJ vs CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 3-1 36% 41% -13.0 33% 36% -9.0 31% 35% -9.9
21.05.25 Cabofriense vs Audax Rio 1-0 43% 53% -18.4 31% 33% -6.6 25% 26% -0.8
21.05.25 Resende FC vs Duque de Caxias 1-0 38% 45% -16.4 33% 36% -8.5 29% 31% -6.2
22.05.25 Bangu AC vs Sao Goncalo 0-2 41% 51% -17.9 33% 36% -8.8 26% 26% -1.4
22.05.25 Petropolis FC RJ vs Olaria AC 0-4 31% 33% -7.5 32% 35% -8.5 37% 44% -16.7
24.05.25 Resende FC vs America RJ 1-1 32% 36% -10.1 34% 37% -9.3 34% 39% -12.5
25.05.25 Olaria AC vs Sao Goncalo 1-1 38% 44% -14.8 35% 40% -12.3 27% 29% -5.3
25.05.25 Petropolis FC RJ vs Audax Rio 1-1 36% 42% -12.8 36% 41% -12.8 28% 30% -7.4
26.05.25 Perolas Negras vs Americano RJ 1-1 39% 47% -15.9 31% 33% -6.5 30% 32% -7.9
31.05.25 America RJ vs Petropolis FC RJ 0-1 46% 57% -19.8 30% 32% -5.8 24% 23% 3.0
31.05.25 Americano RJ vs Cabofriense 1-1 35% 42% -14.8 32% 35% -7.9 32% 36% -9.8
31.05.25 CEAC/Araruama FC RJ vs Resende FC 0-2 28% 29% -3.7 32% 35% -7.7 40% 49% -17.4
31.05.25 Duque de Caxias vs Olaria AC 3-2 33% 36% -10.2 33% 36% -8.5 35% 40% -13.4
31.05.25 Sao Goncalo vs Perolas Negras 2-1 46% 56% -19.0 31% 32% -5.2 24% 23% 4.2
01.06.25 Audax Rio vs Bangu AC 2-2 29% 31% -6.7 32% 34% -7.4 39% 47% -16.3
04.06.25 Bangu AC vs America RJ 0-1 39% 47% -16.8 31% 34% -7.1 30% 32% -7.5
04.06.25 Duque de Caxias vs Sao Goncalo 0-2 35% 41% -13.7 34% 38% -10.8 30% 33% -8.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 204 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Marica FC 1750.02
2 Americano RJ 1693.96
3 Olaria AC 1687.51
4 Resende FC 1616.37
5 Bonsucesso FC 1606.30
6 Perolas Negras 1576.25
7 Cabofriense 1564.07
8 America RJ 1543.90
9 Sao Goncalo 1532.80
10 CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 1487.68

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Olaria AC 1636.48
2 America RJ 1627.45
3 Resende FC 1605.22
4 Marica FC 1599.82
5 Bonsucesso FC 1594.98
6 Americano RJ 1555.18
7 Perolas Negras 1516.74
8 Cabofriense 1512.41
9 Sao Goncalo 1512.21
10 CEAC/Araruama FC RJ 1449.27