ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 217
Avg Goals 2.34
Avg Home 1.36
Avg Away 0.98
Home Win % 43.3%
Draw % 31.3%
Away Win % 25.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 217
Avg Brier Score 0.6261
Pick Accuracy 45.6%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6306
Market Brier 0.6274
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'draw' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 217 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.2% 12.5% 8
10–20% 15.9% 16.7% 78
20–30% 25.7% 28.4% 169
30–40% 33.5% 33.1% 245
40–50% 44.7% 40.0% 75
50–60% 54.9% 50.0% 48
60–70% 63.2% 68.2% 22
70–80% 74.6% 83.3% 6
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
20.01.24 Chapecoense vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 1-0 45% 53% -14.6 33% 35% -4.5 22% 24% -10.7
20.01.24 Criciuma EC vs Figueirense 4-1 59% 68% -13.6 26% 27% -0.8 14% 17% -13.6
20.01.24 Joinville EC vs Marcilio Dias 2-3 43% 50% -14.6 32% 33% -3.2 25% 29% -14.9
21.01.24 Avai SC vs Nacao Araquari SC 3-2 66% 78% -15.3 22% 21% 6.8 12% 14% -12.2
21.01.24 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Brusque SC 1-3 31% 36% -14.8 33% 33% -1.2 36% 43% -15.3
21.01.24 Inter de Lages vs Concordia AC 0-0 35% 43% -16.7 33% 33% -1.3 32% 36% -12.9
24.01.24 Concordia AC vs Criciuma EC 1-2 17% 21% -17.6 29% 29% 2.0 53% 62% -13.9
25.01.24 Brusque SC vs Chapecoense 0-0 38% 45% -16.3 33% 34% -2.9 29% 34% -14.4
25.01.24 Figueirense vs Joinville EC 1-1 44% 51% -12.8 32% 34% -4.2 23% 28% -15.5
25.01.24 Marcilio Dias vs Inter de Lages 2-1 54% 60% -10.1 28% 29% -3.7 18% 23% -20.7
26.01.24 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Avai SC 2-1 35% 38% -9.5 34% 36% -4.9 31% 38% -18.8
26.01.24 Nacao Araquari SC vs Barra FC Camboriu SC 0-4 46% 56% -17.9 30% 29% 2.2 24% 26% -10.4
27.01.24 Brusque SC vs Figueirense 0-0 53% 60% -12.5 30% 31% -4.8 18% 21% -15.9
28.01.24 Avai SC vs Chapecoense 3-2 38% 44% -14.8 33% 34% -2.8 29% 34% -15.3
28.01.24 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Marcilio Dias 1-0 34% 38% -11.7 34% 36% -4.4 32% 38% -17.1
28.01.24 Concordia AC vs Nacao Araquari SC 3-2 52% 62% -16.4 31% 31% -0.8 18% 19% -6.0
28.01.24 Criciuma EC vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 2-0 67% 75% -11.2 23% 24% -4.4 10% 12% -15.7
31.01.24 Chapecoense vs Barra FC Camboriu SC 2-2 56% 62% -10.2 28% 29% -5.5 16% 20% -19.4
01.02.24 Inter de Lages vs Avai SC 2-3 19% 22% -12.3 31% 31% 0.6 49% 58% -15.6
01.02.24 Marcilio Dias vs Criciuma EC 1-0 18% 22% -16.8 28% 27% 5.5 53% 63% -15.7
01.02.24 Nacao Araquari SC vs Brusque SC 1-0 18% 22% -17.8 29% 29% 2.2 53% 61% -14.4
02.02.24 Figueirense vs Concordia AC 2-0 45% 51% -11.8 32% 33% -4.6 23% 28% -17.3
02.02.24 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Joinville EC 1-1 42% 49% -13.7 32% 33% -3.8 26% 31% -17.3
03.02.24 Avai SC vs Marcilio Dias 2-2 54% 60% -9.5 28% 29% -5.0 18% 23% -21.1
03.02.24 Criciuma EC vs Nacao Araquari SC 1-0 78% 86% -9.3 15% 15% 1.2 7% 9% -21.7
04.02.24 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Figueirense 0-1 40% 45% -11.9 32% 32% -1.8 28% 34% -18.1
04.02.24 Brusque SC vs Joinville EC 1-1 49% 54% -9.1 31% 33% -7.3 20% 25% -20.2
04.02.24 Chapecoense vs Concordia AC 0-1 53% 58% -8.7 30% 32% -7.7 17% 21% -19.3
07.02.24 Concordia AC vs Brusque SC 1-1 30% 35% -13.7 34% 36% -3.9 36% 42% -15.6
07.02.24 Marcilio Dias vs Chapecoense 2-1 38% 45% -16.0 33% 33% -2.4 29% 34% -15.2
08.02.24 Criciuma EC vs Barra FC Camboriu SC 1-0 65% 71% -8.7 23% 25% -6.8 12% 15% -22.4
08.02.24 Joinville EC vs Avai SC 2-2 33% 38% -13.5 32% 32% -0.1 35% 42% -16.7
09.02.24 Figueirense vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 0-0 43% 50% -14.5 33% 34% -4.6 24% 29% -14.7
10.02.24 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Concordia AC 3-0 43% 49% -12.4 33% 35% -5.4 24% 29% -15.8
10.02.24 Chapecoense vs Joinville EC 2-3 49% 56% -13.4 32% 33% -5.2 20% 23% -14.4
11.02.24 Brusque SC vs Inter de Lages 0-1 57% 62% -6.9 26% 29% -7.5 16% 21% -23.5
11.02.24 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Marcilio Dias 2-0 39% 45% -13.2 31% 31% -0.2 29% 36% -17.7
11.02.24 Nacao Araquari SC vs Figueirense 0-1 26% 29% -10.0 32% 31% 1.1 42% 52% -19.1
12.02.24 Avai SC vs Criciuma EC 2-3 31% 36% -13.5 32% 31% 1.3 37% 44% -17.0
14.02.24 Chapecoense vs Inter de Lages 2-1 60% 67% -10.4 25% 26% -3.7 15% 18% -20.0
15.02.24 Criciuma EC vs Brusque SC 1-2 58% 64% -9.4 28% 30% -8.4 15% 18% -20.2
17.02.24 Concordia AC vs Marcilio Dias 0-1 37% 42% -13.4 33% 34% -2.6 30% 36% -16.2
17.02.24 Figueirense vs Avai SC 1-2 35% 42% -15.4 33% 33% -1.3 32% 37% -13.9
18.02.24 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Joinville EC 1-1 37% 42% -11.8 33% 33% -2.1 31% 37% -17.4
18.02.24 Brusque SC vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 1-1 46% 51% -9.9 32% 35% -7.6 21% 26% -18.8
18.02.24 Inter de Lages vs Criciuma EC 0-1 14% 16% -15.2 28% 27% 2.8 59% 68% -14.4
20.02.24 Nacao Araquari SC vs Chapecoense 1-3 17% 20% -16.0 29% 28% 3.5 54% 64% -14.5
22.02.24 Joinville EC vs Concordia AC 1-2 50% 57% -12.8 30% 31% -2.3 20% 24% -15.4
22.02.24 Marcilio Dias vs Figueirense 2-0 42% 49% -12.9 32% 33% -3.4 25% 30% -16.5
24.02.24 Avai SC vs Brusque SC 0-1 46% 53% -11.7 30% 31% -2.9 23% 29% -18.8
24.02.24 Chapecoense vs Figueirense 0-1 45% 51% -12.4 32% 33% -4.2 23% 28% -16.6
24.02.24 Joinville EC vs Criciuma EC 0-0 23% 28% -16.4 32% 32% -0.8 45% 53% -14.9
24.02.24 Marcilio Dias vs Nacao Araquari SC 1-1 65% 71% -8.6 23% 24% -6.2 12% 16% -23.1
25.02.24 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Concordia AC 3-0 50% 58% -13.8 30% 31% -2.4 20% 23% -13.3
25.02.24 Inter de Lages vs Barra FC Camboriu SC 0-2 35% 40% -12.2 33% 33% -1.5 32% 38% -16.7
28.02.24 Avai SC vs Barra FC Camboriu SC 1-0 52% 59% -10.9 28% 29% -4.0 19% 24% -20.6
02.03.24 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 1-0 38% 43% -11.7 34% 36% -4.7 28% 34% -16.2
02.03.24 Brusque SC vs Marcilio Dias 4-1 46% 53% -12.5 31% 32% -3.7 23% 28% -17.6
02.03.24 Concordia AC vs Avai SC 0-1 26% 31% -14.9 33% 33% -1.6 41% 49% -15.9
02.03.24 Criciuma EC vs Chapecoense 2-0 51% 56% -8.9 29% 31% -5.8 19% 24% -20.6
02.03.24 Figueirense vs Inter de Lages 3-1 52% 58% -10.2 29% 31% -5.7 18% 22% -18.8
02.03.24 Nacao Araquari SC vs Joinville EC 1-3 14% 15% -9.8 26% 23% 11.8 60% 72% -16.8
09.03.24 Brusque SC vs Marcilio Dias 1-1 48% 56% -13.0 31% 32% -4.4 21% 25% -16.7
09.03.24 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Criciuma EC 1-1 23% 28% -15.5 33% 33% -2.0 44% 52% -15.4
09.03.24 Joinville EC vs Avai SC 1-1 38% 43% -11.8 33% 34% -3.3 29% 35% -17.7
10.03.24 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Figueirense 1-3 39% 44% -13.2 33% 35% -4.1 28% 33% -16.0
16.03.24 Avai SC vs Joinville EC 4-0 48% 55% -12.7 30% 31% -2.0 22% 27% -17.0
16.03.24 Figueirense vs Barra FC Camboriu SC 1-3 63% 74% -14.1 25% 24% 2.1 12% 13% -7.9
17.03.24 Criciuma EC vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 2-1 61% 66% -7.7 25% 28% -9.6 14% 18% -24.4
17.03.24 Marcilio Dias vs Brusque SC 0-0 38% 44% -15.2 31% 31% 0.3 31% 37% -16.4
21.03.24 Brusque SC vs Avai SC 2-0 35% 39% -11.7 33% 34% -2.5 32% 39% -17.6
22.03.24 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Criciuma EC 2-1 22% 26% -18.1 32% 32% -1.3 47% 53% -12.9
24.03.24 Avai SC vs Brusque SC 2-2 51% 58% -11.7 29% 30% -3.1 20% 24% -17.6
24.03.24 Criciuma EC vs Barra FC Camboriu SC 2-1 71% 79% -10.2 20% 21% -2.0 9% 11% -17.7
11.01.25 Joinville EC vs Figueirense 0-0 33% 38% -12.4 33% 33% -1.8 34% 42% -17.8
15.01.25 Caravaggio FC SC vs Chapecoense 1-1 22% 27% -17.6 32% 32% -1.2 46% 53% -13.7
15.01.25 Concordia AC vs Barra FC Camboriu SC 0-0 39% 45% -14.4 33% 34% -3.2 28% 32% -14.0
16.01.25 Avai SC vs Santa Catarina Clube SC 1-0 63% 70% -10.6 24% 25% -3.4 13% 17% -20.1
16.01.25 Marcilio Dias vs Brusque SC 0-0 37% 43% -13.8 33% 34% -2.7 30% 35% -15.8
18.01.25 Brusque SC vs Avai SC 0-0 33% 38% -15.0 33% 34% -2.4 34% 41% -16.1
18.01.25 Figueirense vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 1-1 47% 53% -11.3 33% 35% -6.8 20% 24% -15.5
19.01.25 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Joinville EC 0-0 43% 50% -14.3 32% 33% -3.3 25% 29% -15.3
19.01.25 Chapecoense vs Marcilio Dias 1-0 43% 49% -12.3 33% 34% -5.0 24% 29% -16.8
19.01.25 Criciuma EC vs Concordia AC 2-0 59% 66% -11.2 26% 27% -2.9 15% 18% -17.9
19.01.25 Santa Catarina Clube SC vs Caravaggio FC SC 3-1 49% 53% -8.4 30% 32% -6.2 21% 27% -21.1
22.01.25 Brusque SC vs Chapecoense 1-2 38% 43% -12.1 34% 36% -5.3 27% 32% -15.2
22.01.25 Caravaggio FC SC vs Avai SC 0-0 22% 27% -18.6 31% 31% -0.2 47% 54% -13.4
22.01.25 Joinville EC vs Concordia AC 2-1 45% 51% -11.0 33% 35% -6.2 22% 27% -17.2
23.01.25 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Santa Catarina Clube SC 2-2 44% 49% -9.5 33% 36% -7.2 23% 28% -18.3
23.01.25 Figueirense vs Criciuma EC 2-3 28% 31% -9.8 33% 33% -0.9 39% 48% -17.7
24.01.25 Marcilio Dias vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 1-0 39% 44% -11.6 34% 36% -5.6 26% 31% -15.6
25.01.25 Avai SC vs Figueirense 0-1 49% 56% -12.1 31% 33% -6.0 20% 24% -16.8
25.01.25 Joinville EC vs Brusque SC 1-1 32% 34% -7.6 35% 37% -5.6 33% 41% -18.7
26.01.25 Concordia AC vs Chapecoense 2-1 25% 27% -8.9 33% 34% -1.7 42% 51% -18.0
26.01.25 Criciuma EC vs Barra FC Camboriu SC 1-1 62% 70% -11.4 25% 26% -4.8 13% 15% -18.2
26.01.25 Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube vs Santa Catarina Clube SC 0-1 50% 56% -10.6 30% 31% -4.1 20% 25% -18.5
26.01.25 Marcilio Dias vs Caravaggio FC SC 1-1 61% 67% -9.3 26% 29% -8.0 13% 16% -19.8
29.01.25 Barra FC Camboriu SC vs Hercilio Luz Futebol Clube 1-1 39% 45% -15.0 34% 35% -3.6 28% 32% -13.8
30.01.25 Brusque SC vs Caravaggio FC SC 1-0 59% 65% -8.1 27% 30% -10.4 14% 17% -22.0
30.01.25 Chapecoense vs Avai SC 0-0 32% 36% -12.7 33% 34% -2.3 35% 43% -17.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 217 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Criciuma EC 1862.53
2 Barra FC Camboriu SC 1809.35
3 Figueirense 1762.75
4 Marcilio Dias 1751.78
5 Brusque SC 1748.81
6 Chapecoense 1741.27
7 Santa Catarina Clube SC 1735.94
8 Joinville EC 1728.23
9 Avai SC 1718.81
10 Camboriu FC 1604.86
11 CA Carlos Renaux SC 1587.90
12 Concordia AC 1571.61

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Criciuma EC 1804.09
2 Avai SC 1685.14
3 Marcilio Dias 1678.97
4 Brusque SC 1674.61
5 Figueirense 1668.79
6 Chapecoense 1638.94
7 Barra FC Camboriu SC 1631.20
8 Santa Catarina Clube SC 1629.63
9 Joinville EC 1609.54
10 Camboriu FC 1571.98
11 CA Carlos Renaux SC 1506.14
12 Concordia AC 1438.55