ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 118
Avg Goals 2.47
Avg Home 1.39
Avg Away 1.08
Home Win % 39.0%
Draw % 30.5%
Away Win % 30.5%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 118
Avg Brier Score 0.5339
Pick Accuracy 52.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5178
Market Brier 0.5451
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 100.0%
ROI (flat stake) 450.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 118 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit 4.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 100.0% 1.00 4.50 450.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.4% 0.0% 28
10–20% 14.8% 9.4% 53
20–30% 25.8% 32.3% 93
30–40% 33.3% 33.3% 87
40–50% 44.9% 34.3% 35
50–60% 53.5% 57.1% 14
60–70% 64.6% 58.8% 17
70–80% 75.2% 82.4% 17
80–90% 84.7% 100.0% 10
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
20.01.24 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Floresta EC 1-3 50% 59% -14.2 29% 30% -3.3 20% 23% -12.4
20.01.24 Fortaleza EC vs Horizonte FC 2-0 85% 88% -3.7 11% 15% -26.1 5% 7% -34.3
21.01.24 AD Iguatu vs Atletico Cearense 2-0 50% 61% -17.7 29% 29% -0.6 20% 21% -3.8
21.01.24 Maracana EC vs Ceara Sporting Club 1-1 14% 17% -17.0 25% 25% -1.9 62% 70% -11.8
27.01.24 AD Iguatu vs Caucaia EC 1-0 48% 56% -14.7 30% 30% -2.2 22% 25% -11.3
27.01.24 Ceara Sporting Club vs Floresta EC 1-0 62% 68% -10.0 25% 26% -6.5 14% 17% -20.9
27.01.24 Horizonte FC vs Maracana EC 1-3 27% 32% -17.0 30% 31% -3.2 43% 49% -11.9
28.01.24 Atletico Cearense vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-2 21% 26% -21.1 29% 30% -5.8 51% 56% -8.8
28.01.24 Barbalha FC vs Fortaleza EC 0-5 5% 6% -26.2 13% 15% -9.8 82% 88% -7.3
31.01.24 Caucaia EC vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-2 25% 31% -19.6 30% 31% -4.5 45% 50% -10.0
01.02.24 Fortaleza EC vs AD Iguatu 3-1 75% 82% -8.7 17% 18% -4.5 8% 10% -22.4
02.02.24 Ceara Sporting Club vs Atletico Cearense 6-0 78% 84% -7.2 15% 17% -8.1 7% 9% -26.1
03.02.24 Barbalha FC vs Maracana EC 1-2 15% 17% -10.5 25% 24% 2.5 60% 71% -15.3
04.02.24 Floresta EC vs Horizonte FC 4-2 52% 56% -5.9 28% 31% -8.6 20% 26% -23.5
07.02.24 Maracana EC vs AD Iguatu 2-2 39% 47% -16.3 31% 32% -3.1 30% 33% -10.5
08.02.24 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Fortaleza EC 1-1 9% 11% -24.3 18% 19% -5.0 73% 80% -8.4
09.02.24 Ceara Sporting Club vs Caucaia EC 5-0 77% 83% -7.4 16% 17% -6.9 7% 9% -23.6
10.02.24 Floresta EC vs Barbalha FC 0-0 75% 80% -6.4 17% 19% -11.3 8% 11% -28.1
10.02.24 Horizonte FC vs Atletico Cearense 1-1 37% 44% -16.1 31% 32% -3.6 32% 36% -13.1
15.02.24 Caucaia EC vs Horizonte FC 0-1 49% 55% -11.3 28% 29% -3.7 23% 29% -19.7
17.02.24 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Maracana EC 0-0 44% 45% -4.0 30% 32% -7.3 26% 35% -24.1
17.02.24 Fortaleza EC vs Ceara Sporting Club 3-3 50% 58% -14.1 29% 30% -3.4 21% 24% -13.7
24.02.24 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs AD Iguatu 1-0 42% 48% -11.3 31% 33% -6.2 26% 32% -17.9
25.02.24 Floresta EC vs Maracana EC 1-0 39% 43% -9.4 31% 32% -4.0 30% 36% -18.4
26.02.24 Barbalha FC vs Horizonte FC 0-0 40% 45% -11.1 31% 32% -4.4 29% 35% -18.0
01.03.24 Horizonte FC vs Atletico Cearense 2-1 43% 51% -15.7 31% 32% -4.0 26% 29% -12.2
02.03.24 AD Iguatu vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-3 42% 49% -14.2 31% 32% -3.7 27% 31% -13.4
03.03.24 Caucaia EC vs Horizonte FC 1-1 45% 50% -10.1 30% 31% -4.6 25% 31% -19.3
03.03.24 Maracana EC vs Floresta EC 2-0 39% 44% -12.0 32% 33% -5.0 29% 35% -16.1
09.03.24 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Ceara Sporting Club 2-3 22% 28% -21.4 29% 30% -5.4 49% 54% -8.4
09.03.24 Horizonte FC vs Caucaia EC 0-0 39% 47% -15.3 30% 31% -2.5 30% 35% -14.1
10.03.24 Maracana EC vs Fortaleza EC 1-1 10% 13% -22.8 21% 22% -5.2 69% 76% -8.8
13.03.24 Atletico Cearense vs Horizonte FC 0-1 37% 44% -17.2 31% 32% -2.9 32% 35% -9.2
15.03.24 Horizonte FC vs Barbalha FC 2-1 46% 53% -12.6 30% 31% -3.9 23% 28% -15.4
16.03.24 Ceara Sporting Club vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-1 58% 63% -8.5 26% 28% -6.9 16% 21% -22.2
17.03.24 Fortaleza EC vs Maracana EC 3-0 86% 92% -6.3 10% 12% -13.8 4% 6% -30.0
30.03.24 Fortaleza EC vs Ceara Sporting Club 0-0 53% 62% -13.9 27% 27% 0.5 20% 23% -13.4
18.01.25 AD Iguatu vs Maracana EC 0-1 49% 54% -9.7 30% 32% -7.2 21% 26% -19.3
18.01.25 Ceara Sporting Club vs CF Atletas do Tirol CE 2-1 73% 76% -3.7 18% 22% -17.7 9% 13% -31.2
19.01.25 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Horizonte FC 1-2 53% 60% -11.5 29% 31% -6.0 18% 21% -15.6
19.01.25 Floresta EC vs Barbalha FC 3-1 74% 81% -7.8 19% 21% -9.7 7% 8% -20.7
25.01.25 AD Iguatu vs Floresta EC 1-1 33% 40% -17.1 31% 32% -3.3 36% 40% -10.9
25.01.25 Horizonte FC vs Fortaleza EC 1-3 10% 14% -29.4 20% 23% -14.3 70% 74% -4.6
26.01.25 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Ceara Sporting Club 1-2 12% 17% -30.3 23% 28% -17.3 65% 66% -2.0
26.01.25 Maracana EC vs CF Atletas do Tirol CE 1-1 48% 56% -13.2 29% 29% -1.9 23% 27% -15.3
28.01.25 Barbalha FC vs Horizonte FC 1-1 27% 33% -18.4 31% 32% -4.9 42% 48% -11.6
28.01.25 Fortaleza EC vs Cariri FC 7-0 86% 93% -7.5 10% 11% -3.6 4% 5% -25.5
29.01.25 Floresta EC vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 3-3 47% 53% -10.7 30% 31% -5.0 23% 29% -18.4
30.01.25 Ceara Sporting Club vs AD Iguatu 1-0 74% 79% -6.7 19% 21% -12.1 7% 10% -25.5
30.01.25 CF Atletas do Tirol CE vs Cariri FC 4-0 66% 77% -13.9 22% 21% 5.1 12% 13% -9.7
31.01.25 Fortaleza EC vs Maracana EC 1-0 77% 85% -9.6 16% 15% 2.2 7% 9% -19.5
01.02.25 Floresta EC vs Fortaleza EC 0-1 11% 13% -20.9 21% 22% -4.1 68% 75% -9.4
02.02.25 Ceara Sporting Club vs Barbalha FC 5-0 88% 93% -4.7 9% 12% -25.0 3% 4% -33.5
02.02.25 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Maracana EC 1-0 38% 45% -15.7 32% 33% -4.2 30% 33% -10.8
04.02.25 Cariri FC vs AD Iguatu 1-5 6% 8% -20.2 16% 17% -1.8 77% 85% -9.6
04.02.25 Horizonte FC vs CF Atletas do Tirol CE 0-0 28% 34% -17.6 32% 33% -5.1 40% 44% -10.1
08.02.25 CF Atletas do Tirol CE vs Floresta EC 2-0 36% 40% -11.1 32% 33% -4.6 33% 39% -16.8
08.02.25 Fortaleza EC vs Ceara Sporting Club 1-2 42% 51% -16.0 31% 32% -3.4 26% 29% -10.2
08.02.25 Maracana EC vs Barbalha FC 4-1 58% 63% -7.7 26% 29% -8.7 15% 20% -22.8
15.02.25 AD Iguatu vs Cariri FC 3-0 86% 91% -5.0 10% 12% -21.1 4% 6% -33.0
15.02.25 Barbalha FC vs Floresta EC 1-1 23% 27% -15.7 27% 27% 1.4 50% 58% -13.8
15.02.25 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs CF Atletas do Tirol CE 2-1 38% 45% -15.4 31% 31% -2.2 31% 36% -13.3
16.02.25 Horizonte FC vs Maracana EC 2-3 30% 37% -18.2 30% 31% -2.9 39% 44% -11.4
21.02.25 Floresta EC vs AD Iguatu 1-0 38% 45% -17.1 31% 31% -2.1 32% 36% -11.2
22.02.25 CF Atletas do Tirol CE vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 0-3 42% 49% -13.3 31% 32% -3.6 27% 31% -13.5
23.02.25 Maracana EC vs Horizonte FC 1-0 47% 52% -9.7 30% 31% -4.5 23% 29% -18.1
27.02.25 AD Iguatu vs Barbalha FC 3-3 60% 66% -9.4 25% 26% -6.5 15% 20% -23.1
27.02.25 Floresta EC vs Cariri FC 2-1 82% 87% -5.3 13% 15% -18.4 5% 7% -31.4
01.03.25 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Fortaleza EC 0-0 10% 13% -21.2 21% 22% -4.8 69% 76% -9.4
02.03.25 Maracana EC vs Ceara Sporting Club 0-3 12% 17% -26.7 23% 26% -11.2 65% 69% -6.4
08.03.25 Fortaleza EC vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-0 78% 83% -5.5 15% 17% -14.4 7% 10% -30.0
09.03.25 Ceara Sporting Club vs Maracana EC 4-0 66% 69% -5.1 22% 26% -13.7 12% 17% -28.2
15.03.25 Fortaleza EC vs Ceara Sporting Club 0-1 39% 44% -11.6 32% 33% -5.3 29% 35% -17.0
15.03.25 Maracana EC vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 2-1 34% 36% -5.7 31% 32% -3.6 35% 43% -20.3
22.03.25 Ceara Sporting Club vs Fortaleza EC 1-1 29% 32% -9.2 33% 36% -6.6 37% 44% -16.0
06.01.26 Maracana EC vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 0-1 40% 51% -21.8 32% 33% -4.9 28% 29% -1.3
07.01.26 CF Atletas do Tirol CE vs Floresta EC 0-2 28% 33% -14.8 33% 36% -7.0 38% 43% -11.7
07.01.26 Horizonte FC vs Quixada FC 0-0 43% 52% -17.3 32% 33% -4.4 25% 27% -6.4
08.01.26 AD Iguatu vs Maranguape FC 2-0 56% 65% -13.2 27% 28% -1.8 17% 19% -12.3
10.01.26 Floresta EC vs Ceara Sporting Club 0-1 50% 67% -25.3 28% 27% 4.0 22% 18% 21.7
10.01.26 Quixada FC vs Maracana EC 1-0 32% 38% -16.3 33% 35% -6.0 35% 39% -10.6
11.01.26 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Fortaleza EC 0-0 13% 19% -31.6 23% 28% -18.1 64% 65% -1.7
11.01.26 Maranguape FC vs CF Atletas do Tirol CE 1-0 19% 23% -16.0 30% 32% -6.5 51% 57% -11.2
13.01.26 Maracana EC vs Horizonte FC 1-2 43% 49% -12.8 32% 34% -5.6 25% 29% -13.4
14.01.26 AD Iguatu vs CF Atletas do Tirol CE 0-0 45% 51% -12.3 31% 32% -4.6 24% 29% -15.1
15.01.26 Ceara Sporting Club vs Maranguape FC 1-0 80% 88% -8.3 15% 16% -6.1 5% 6% -18.6
16.01.26 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Horizonte FC 2-2 48% 56% -14.6 31% 32% -4.7 21% 24% -10.6
16.01.26 Fortaleza EC vs Quixada FC 4-0 86% 90% -4.4 10% 13% -23.8 4% 6% -33.2
17.01.26 Ceara Sporting Club vs AD Iguatu 1-1 65% 76% -14.7 24% 23% 3.5 11% 12% -3.7
17.01.26 Maranguape FC vs Floresta EC 0-3 16% 22% -25.5 29% 33% -13.6 55% 57% -3.7
18.01.26 Fortaleza EC vs Maracana EC 1-0 85% 89% -4.8 11% 14% -19.3 4% 6% -31.1
22.01.26 CF Atletas do Tirol CE vs Ceara Sporting Club 1-4 8% 10% -22.6 20% 22% -9.1 72% 79% -7.9
22.01.26 Floresta EC vs AD Iguatu 1-1 44% 51% -12.4 32% 34% -6.0 24% 28% -13.8
23.01.26 Horizonte FC vs Fortaleza EC 0-1 11% 15% -28.9 21% 25% -14.6 68% 71% -4.6
23.01.26 Quixada FC vs Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1-2 25% 30% -18.8 32% 34% -7.9 44% 49% -10.6
25.01.26 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza vs Ceara Sporting Club 1-5 15% 21% -28.7 25% 29% -14.3 60% 62% -3.5
27.01.26 AD Iguatu vs Horizonte FC 1-1 50% 53% -6.9 29% 32% -8.6 21% 27% -22.2
27.01.26 Fortaleza EC vs Floresta EC 1-0 63% 70% -11.1 24% 24% -2.5 14% 17% -18.3
28.01.26 Maranguape FC vs Maracana EC 1-1 31% 34% -11.5 33% 34% -5.5 37% 43% -15.2
29.01.26 Quixada FC vs CF Atletas do Tirol CE 0-1 38% 42% -8.8 32% 34% -6.4 30% 36% -18.3
Showing the 100 most recent of 118 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Fortaleza EC 1861.41
2 Ceara Sporting Club 1806.60
3 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1734.95
4 Floresta EC 1708.65
5 Maracana EC 1674.06
6 AD Iguatu 1640.68
7 CF Atletas do Tirol CE 1563.66
8 Horizonte FC 1555.41
9 Quixada FC 1536.26
10 Maranguape FC 1456.06

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Fortaleza EC 1803.59
2 Ceara Sporting Club 1726.69
3 Ferroviario AC Fortaleza 1652.87
4 AD Iguatu 1620.75
5 Floresta EC 1581.09
6 Maracana EC 1563.35
7 Horizonte FC 1518.39
8 CF Atletas do Tirol CE 1472.75
9 Maranguape FC 1457.74
10 Quixada FC 1436.54