ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 205
Avg Goals 2.27
Avg Home 1.34
Avg Away 0.93
Home Win % 41.5%
Draw % 35.6%
Away Win % 22.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 205
Avg Brier Score 0.5613
Pick Accuracy 50.2%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5524
Market Brier 0.5736
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 205 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.1% 4.5% 44
10–20% 15.2% 12.6% 95
20–30% 25.1% 25.5% 141
30–40% 34.1% 40.5% 173
40–50% 44.5% 30.4% 69
50–60% 55.2% 50.0% 30
60–70% 64.3% 60.0% 25
70–80% 74.6% 87.0% 23
80–90% 83.6% 93.3% 15
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
28.08.23 Internacional Santa Maria vs Monsoon FC RS 1-0 28% 36% -23.0 34% 32% 4.4 39% 43% -8.8
20.01.24 Caxias do Sul vs Gremio Porto Alegre 2-1 15% 22% -30.4 28% 30% -6.4 57% 58% -2.2
20.01.24 EC Sao Jose vs EC Sao Luiz 1-1 50% 51% -2.3 31% 33% -6.5 19% 26% -26.8
20.01.24 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs EC Juventude 0-1 23% 30% -23.4 33% 31% 4.3 44% 49% -9.4
21.01.24 Guarany de Bage vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 1-2 25% 32% -21.7 32% 30% 7.0 42% 48% -11.1
21.01.24 Internacional vs EC Avenida 1-0 82% 83% -0.4 12% 16% -26.8 6% 9% -34.4
24.01.24 EC Juventude vs Guarany de Bage 4-0 72% 71% 0.4 18% 23% -18.9 10% 15% -33.3
24.01.24 EC Sao Luiz vs Internacional 0-0 20% 29% -31.5 29% 30% -5.4 52% 51% 0.9
24.01.24 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs Caxias do Sul 2-2 40% 44% -10.8 34% 33% 2.7 26% 32% -19.0
25.01.24 EC Avenida vs Brasil de Pelotas 0-0 46% 48% -2.4 33% 34% -4.2 20% 27% -24.3
25.01.24 Gremio Porto Alegre vs EC Sao Jose 4-1 78% 78% 0.3 14% 19% -25.6 7% 11% -34.6
27.01.24 Caxias do Sul vs EC Sao Luiz 2-2 56% 60% -6.3 29% 29% -2.9 16% 21% -24.8
27.01.24 EC Novo Hamburgo vs EC Avenida 0-1 42% 49% -14.2 34% 32% 5.5 24% 28% -13.2
27.01.24 EC Sao Jose vs EC Juventude 1-0 24% 30% -20.9 34% 33% 3.0 42% 47% -10.4
27.01.24 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs Guarany de Bage 1-1 41% 48% -13.1 34% 33% 2.7 24% 29% -17.1
27.01.24 Internacional vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 3-0 74% 77% -4.0 18% 20% -11.1 8% 12% -31.0
28.01.24 Brasil de Pelotas vs Gremio Porto Alegre 0-1 11% 17% -34.0 22% 26% -15.4 67% 66% 0.9
31.01.24 EC Sao Luiz vs EC Avenida 1-0 46% 50% -7.5 33% 33% -0.8 21% 26% -21.4
31.01.24 Guarany de Bage vs Internacional 2-1 12% 17% -32.2 23% 25% -8.0 65% 67% -2.9
31.01.24 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs EC Novo Hamburgo 1-1 56% 58% -3.5 29% 31% -7.4 15% 21% -26.9
01.02.24 Caxias do Sul vs Brasil de Pelotas 1-2 70% 71% -1.9 22% 26% -14.4 8% 12% -29.9
01.02.24 Gremio Porto Alegre vs EC Juventude 1-0 70% 74% -4.4 21% 24% -10.5 8% 12% -28.7
02.02.24 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs EC Sao Jose 1-1 30% 38% -20.2 34% 32% 5.8 36% 40% -10.6
03.02.24 EC Avenida vs Gremio Porto Alegre 0-1 12% 18% -34.1 23% 28% -16.4 65% 64% 1.7
03.02.24 Internacional vs Caxias do Sul 2-0 73% 76% -3.9 19% 21% -10.5 8% 11% -29.9
04.02.24 EC Novo Hamburgo vs EC Sao Luiz 1-0 40% 49% -17.9 34% 32% 4.9 26% 30% -13.8
04.02.24 EC Sao Jose vs Guarany de Bage 1-1 59% 60% -0.9 26% 29% -9.7 15% 22% -30.1
05.02.24 EC Juventude vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 3-0 59% 60% -2.1 28% 31% -10.6 13% 18% -27.9
07.02.24 EC Juventude vs EC Avenida 3-1 74% 75% -2.2 18% 22% -16.1 8% 12% -32.2
07.02.24 EC Sao Luiz vs Brasil de Pelotas 2-2 43% 49% -11.3 32% 31% 4.0 24% 30% -20.1
07.02.24 Gremio Porto Alegre vs EC Novo Hamburgo 2-0 82% 83% -1.2 13% 17% -24.2 6% 9% -34.0
08.02.24 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs Internacional 0-2 8% 12% -33.9 17% 21% -16.3 75% 76% -1.3
08.02.24 Guarany de Bage vs Caxias do Sul 1-1 27% 35% -24.2 33% 31% 4.9 41% 44% -8.6
08.02.24 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs EC Sao Jose 1-1 44% 50% -12.0 33% 31% 4.5 23% 29% -18.3
10.02.24 Gremio Porto Alegre vs EC Sao Luiz 1-1 83% 84% -1.5 12% 15% -25.2 6% 9% -34.3
11.02.24 Brasil de Pelotas vs Guarany de Bage 1-1 46% 51% -9.8 33% 32% 2.0 22% 27% -19.3
11.02.24 EC Avenida vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 2-0 35% 43% -19.6 34% 31% 7.7 31% 35% -10.5
11.02.24 EC Novo Hamburgo vs EC Juventude 1-1 23% 32% -27.5 32% 32% 0.2 44% 47% -4.8
11.02.24 EC Sao Jose vs Internacional 0-1 17% 24% -30.9 28% 29% -5.1 55% 56% -1.7
12.02.24 Caxias do Sul vs FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS 2-1 66% 68% -2.9 23% 26% -11.1 11% 16% -30.2
14.02.24 EC Sao Luiz vs EC Juventude 1-1 31% 43% -26.1 32% 29% 7.8 37% 38% -2.3
14.02.24 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs EC Avenida 1-1 32% 38% -16.3 35% 34% 4.1 33% 38% -13.9
14.02.24 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs Gremio Porto Alegre 0-0 23% 33% -30.1 31% 32% -2.8 45% 45% -0.2
15.02.24 Guarany de Bage vs EC Novo Hamburgo 2-0 35% 41% -13.9 35% 34% 4.0 30% 35% -15.1
15.02.24 Internacional vs Brasil de Pelotas 3-1 84% 84% -0.6 12% 16% -27.5 5% 7% -34.2
16.02.24 Caxias do Sul vs EC Sao Jose 1-2 49% 56% -12.4 31% 30% 3.6 19% 24% -18.4
17.02.24 Gremio Porto Alegre vs FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS 6-2 87% 88% -2.1 9% 13% -28.2 4% 6% -34.6
18.02.24 Brasil de Pelotas vs EC Sao Jose 0-0 33% 41% -19.7 36% 35% 2.8 31% 34% -8.1
18.02.24 EC Sao Luiz vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 0-0 42% 51% -17.9 34% 32% 5.7 24% 26% -9.5
19.02.24 EC Novo Hamburgo vs Internacional 1-3 12% 17% -32.2 23% 25% -8.5 65% 67% -2.0
20.02.24 EC Avenida vs Guarany de Bage 0-1 46% 51% -8.6 32% 31% 2.6 22% 29% -22.0
20.02.24 EC Juventude vs Caxias do Sul 1-1 49% 56% -13.2 32% 30% 4.6 19% 23% -16.4
24.02.24 Brasil de Pelotas vs EC Juventude 1-0 24% 32% -26.7 33% 32% 0.9 44% 45% -3.6
24.02.24 Caxias do Sul vs EC Avenida 2-0 59% 61% -4.0 26% 27% -4.2 15% 21% -27.7
24.02.24 Guarany de Bage vs EC Sao Luiz 1-0 33% 40% -16.6 35% 33% 4.6 32% 37% -14.2
25.02.24 Internacional vs Gremio Porto Alegre 3-2 47% 53% -10.8 32% 31% 3.5 21% 26% -19.1
27.02.24 EC Sao Jose vs EC Novo Hamburgo 3-0 53% 58% -7.7 29% 29% -0.3 17% 23% -23.7
27.02.24 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 1-1 23% 30% -25.4 33% 32% 1.5 45% 48% -6.2
02.03.24 EC Avenida vs EC Sao Jose 0-0 42% 51% -16.2 34% 32% 5.5 24% 27% -11.4
02.03.24 EC Juventude vs Internacional 1-2 36% 45% -21.8 35% 33% 4.7 30% 31% -5.5
02.03.24 EC Novo Hamburgo vs Caxias do Sul 0-1 31% 38% -19.4 35% 33% 4.9 34% 38% -9.8
02.03.24 EC Sao Luiz vs FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS 1-0 76% 79% -4.0 17% 20% -12.8 7% 10% -30.6
02.03.24 Gremio Porto Alegre vs Guarany de Bage 4-1 83% 83% -0.8 12% 16% -26.1 5% 8% -34.2
02.03.24 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs Brasil de Pelotas 0-0 59% 63% -6.0 26% 27% -2.4 14% 19% -25.7
08.03.24 Caxias do Sul vs EC Sao Jose 1-0 46% 51% -10.7 33% 32% 2.0 21% 26% -19.0
09.03.24 Guarany de Bage vs EC Juventude 0-4 21% 29% -29.7 31% 32% -3.7 48% 49% -1.1
09.03.24 Internacional vs EC Sao Luiz 3-0 76% 79% -3.7 17% 19% -11.5 7% 11% -30.7
10.03.24 Gremio Porto Alegre vs Brasil de Pelotas 2-0 84% 85% -1.1 12% 16% -26.5 4% 7% -34.0
16.03.24 Caxias do Sul vs Gremio Porto Alegre 1-2 16% 23% -29.5 28% 29% -3.3 56% 58% -3.9
17.03.24 EC Juventude vs Internacional 0-0 15% 20% -26.4 30% 30% -1.6 55% 60% -6.8
26.03.24 Internacional vs EC Juventude 1-1 77% 77% -0.3 16% 21% -23.2 7% 11% -34.0
27.03.24 Gremio Porto Alegre vs Caxias do Sul 3-2 77% 77% -0.4 16% 20% -20.3 7% 11% -33.1
30.03.24 EC Juventude vs Gremio Porto Alegre 0-0 21% 30% -29.8 30% 30% -1.4 49% 50% -2.3
22.01.25 EC Juventude vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 2-0 62% 62% -1.2 24% 27% -9.1 14% 20% -29.9
22.01.25 EC Sao Luiz vs EC Avenida 2-1 46% 52% -11.9 34% 33% 1.1 21% 25% -17.4
22.01.25 Guarany de Bage vs Internacional 2-2 8% 11% -34.0 20% 24% -19.1 73% 73% -0.4
23.01.25 Brasil de Pelotas vs Gremio Porto Alegre 0-0 10% 15% -32.1 22% 24% -8.5 67% 69% -3.2
23.01.25 EC Sao Jose vs EC Pelotas 1-1 47% 55% -15.2 33% 32% 3.5 20% 23% -13.2
23.01.25 Monsoon FC RS vs Caxias do Sul 0-1 23% 29% -20.9 35% 35% 1.0 42% 47% -9.3
25.01.25 EC Sao Luiz vs EC Sao Jose 1-1 44% 50% -11.4 34% 34% 0.3 22% 27% -18.6
25.01.25 Internacional vs EC Juventude 2-0 64% 65% -1.8 23% 26% -11.5 13% 18% -30.9
26.01.25 Brasil de Pelotas vs Guarany de Bage 0-0 42% 47% -9.8 34% 33% 1.5 24% 30% -20.1
26.01.25 EC Avenida vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 0-0 29% 35% -17.3 36% 35% 3.0 35% 40% -12.3
26.01.25 EC Pelotas vs Monsoon FC RS 1-2 47% 52% -9.9 33% 33% -0.3 20% 25% -19.7
27.01.25 Gremio Porto Alegre vs Caxias do Sul 4-0 78% 79% -1.2 14% 18% -21.4 7% 11% -33.9
28.01.25 EC Juventude vs Guarany de Bage 1-0 74% 74% 1.0 17% 23% -23.1 8% 12% -33.9
29.01.25 EC Sao Jose vs Internacional 0-2 8% 12% -34.0 20% 24% -18.1 72% 72% -0.6
29.01.25 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs EC Sao Luiz 1-1 46% 49% -5.2 32% 32% -0.8 22% 29% -23.8
30.01.25 Caxias do Sul vs Brasil de Pelotas 4-2 51% 55% -6.0 31% 32% -3.6 18% 23% -24.0
30.01.25 Monsoon FC RS vs Gremio Porto Alegre 0-3 12% 18% -33.2 23% 26% -10.6 65% 66% -2.0
31.01.25 EC Pelotas vs EC Avenida 1-0 36% 43% -16.2 35% 34% 4.1 29% 33% -12.8
01.02.25 Gremio Porto Alegre vs EC Sao Luiz 5-0 81% 82% -1.2 13% 17% -23.5 6% 9% -33.9
01.02.25 Ypiranga Erechim GA vs Monsoon FC RS 2-1 61% 63% -3.4 26% 29% -9.3 13% 18% -28.7
02.02.25 Brasil de Pelotas vs EC Sao Jose 1-0 42% 47% -10.2 34% 34% 1.4 24% 29% -18.8
02.02.25 Caxias do Sul vs EC Juventude 0-2 22% 29% -25.0 33% 33% 0.3 45% 48% -6.5
02.02.25 Guarany de Bage vs EC Pelotas 1-0 41% 47% -12.4 35% 34% 1.3 24% 29% -17.2
03.02.25 Internacional vs EC Avenida 1-0 89% 91% -2.1 8% 11% -30.6 3% 5% -34.4
05.02.25 EC Avenida vs Caxias do Sul 0-1 31% 37% -17.6 36% 34% 3.4 34% 38% -12.1
06.02.25 EC Juventude vs Gremio Porto Alegre 2-0 29% 36% -19.4 35% 33% 4.5 36% 41% -10.8
06.02.25 EC Sao Jose vs Ypiranga Erechim GA 0-0 40% 48% -16.5 36% 34% 3.0 25% 28% -11.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 205 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Internacional 1937.34
2 EC Juventude 1898.03
3 Gremio Porto Alegre 1834.31
4 Caxias do Sul 1762.50
5 Ypiranga Erechim GA 1748.23
6 EC Avenida 1730.12
7 EC Sao Luiz 1717.45
8 EC Sao Jose 1708.03
9 Monsoon FC RS 1589.50
10 Guarany de Bage 1495.16

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Internacional 1813.12
2 EC Juventude 1788.99
3 Gremio Porto Alegre 1772.14
4 Caxias do Sul 1669.63
5 Ypiranga Erechim GA 1641.86
6 EC Sao Jose 1626.81
7 EC Sao Luiz 1559.54
8 EC Avenida 1499.83
9 Guarany de Bage 1497.41
10 Monsoon FC RS 1474.39