ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 172
Avg Goals 1.98
Avg Home 1.13
Avg Away 0.84
Home Win % 43.6%
Draw % 30.2%
Away Win % 26.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 172
Avg Brier Score 0.6003
Pick Accuracy 49.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6010
Market Brier 0.5965
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 7
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 85.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 7 of 172 matches had at least one · staked 7.00, profit -7.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 6 0.0% 6.00 -6.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.3% 0.0% 3
10–20% 17.0% 7.1% 28
20–30% 26.5% 20.8% 183
30–40% 33.5% 34.7% 196
40–50% 45.0% 55.6% 63
50–60% 53.4% 63.6% 33
60–70% 64.1% 85.7% 7
70–80% 76.9% 66.7% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
06.08.23 CE Lajeadense vs FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS 1-1 37% 43% -13.9 32% 36% -13.3 31% 33% -6.9
13.08.23 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs CE Lajeadense 1-0 46% 54% -14.6 29% 33% -12.1 25% 26% -4.4
20.08.23 Guarany de Bage vs FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS 0-0 39% 44% -13.0 31% 36% -13.5 30% 32% -7.4
27.08.23 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs Guarany de Bage 1-1 42% 48% -12.2 31% 35% -12.5 28% 29% -6.5
01.06.24 EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS vs Gremio Esportivo Gloria 0-1 32% 35% -9.3 31% 34% -11.3 38% 43% -11.7
02.06.24 Brasil de Farroupilha vs SC Gaucho 1-0 36% 41% -11.1 30% 34% -11.6 33% 37% -10.2
02.06.24 CE Lajeadense vs Internacional Santa Maria 2-0 25% 25% 1.3 30% 34% -10.9 44% 53% -16.8
02.06.24 CF Com Vida SAF RS vs EC Pelotas 0-0 20% 19% 7.0 27% 28% -4.6 53% 65% -17.7
02.06.24 Uniao Frederiquense vs Veranopolis 1-0 40% 45% -13.1 29% 32% -10.3 32% 35% -10.1
05.06.24 Gremio Esportivo Bage vs CF Com Vida SAF RS 2-1 43% 47% -8.2 29% 34% -13.2 28% 32% -13.7
06.06.24 Esportivo RS vs Brasil de Farroupilha 3-1 53% 62% -15.0 27% 29% -8.7 20% 20% 1.9
06.06.24 Uniao Frederiquense vs EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS 1-1 51% 59% -13.5 27% 30% -10.0 22% 23% -3.8
06.06.24 Veranopolis vs Passo Fundo 3-1 30% 31% -4.0 30% 34% -11.3 40% 48% -16.1
07.06.24 EC Pelotas vs CE Lajeadense 1-1 48% 55% -11.7 29% 34% -13.1 22% 23% -4.6
08.06.24 Monsoon FC RS vs Internacional Santa Maria 1-1 47% 54% -12.7 27% 30% -9.6 25% 28% -8.5
09.06.24 Brasil de Farroupilha vs Veranopolis 0-1 38% 43% -11.3 30% 33% -10.8 33% 36% -10.5
09.06.24 CE Lajeadense vs Gremio Esportivo Bage 2-0 46% 51% -10.8 30% 35% -13.6 24% 26% -6.7
09.06.24 CF Com Vida SAF RS vs Aimore RS 0-3 27% 29% -5.2 29% 32% -9.7 44% 52% -15.5
09.06.24 EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS vs SC Gaucho 1-4 33% 37% -11.9 31% 35% -11.7 36% 40% -9.0
09.06.24 Gremio Esportivo Gloria vs Esportivo RS 2-0 41% 48% -13.7 30% 33% -10.5 29% 31% -5.5
09.06.24 Passo Fundo vs Uniao Frederiquense 0-0 51% 60% -14.3 27% 30% -10.7 22% 23% -5.1
12.06.24 Aimore RS vs Gremio Esportivo Bage 0-1 44% 51% -13.2 30% 34% -12.3 25% 26% -4.0
15.06.24 SC Gaucho vs EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS 0-0 53% 62% -15.1 26% 29% -8.7 21% 22% -2.6
15.06.24 Veranopolis vs Brasil de Farroupilha 1-2 49% 58% -14.6 28% 31% -10.3 23% 23% -2.1
16.06.24 Aimore RS vs CF Com Vida SAF RS 2-1 65% 76% -14.5 22% 23% -5.0 14% 12% 9.2
16.06.24 Gremio Esportivo Bage vs CE Lajeadense 1-0 33% 36% -9.2 33% 38% -14.8 34% 38% -11.1
16.06.24 Uniao Frederiquense vs Passo Fundo 1-1 37% 43% -13.4 31% 35% -12.0 32% 35% -7.4
19.06.24 CF Com Vida SAF RS vs Gremio Esportivo Bage 1-0 21% 21% 1.4 28% 31% -8.8 50% 60% -16.4
19.06.24 EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS vs Uniao Frederiquense 0-2 34% 38% -12.8 30% 34% -11.7 36% 40% -9.9
20.06.24 Brasil de Farroupilha vs Esportivo RS 2-1 30% 34% -11.5 30% 34% -10.8 40% 44% -10.5
20.06.24 Passo Fundo vs Veranopolis 1-3 42% 48% -11.2 29% 33% -11.5 28% 31% -9.6
21.06.24 Monsoon FC RS vs Aimore RS 1-0 51% 60% -15.1 27% 29% -9.4 22% 23% -3.8
23.06.24 EC Pelotas vs CF Com Vida SAF RS 3-1 66% 75% -11.8 21% 24% -10.6 12% 12% -0.6
23.06.24 Esportivo RS vs Passo Fundo 1-3 43% 50% -13.4 30% 34% -12.7 27% 29% -6.8
23.06.24 Gremio Esportivo Bage vs Aimore RS 2-4 41% 49% -15.2 30% 34% -11.1 28% 29% -3.1
23.06.24 Gremio Esportivo Gloria vs EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS 3-0 63% 74% -14.9 23% 24% -5.0 14% 13% 11.5
23.06.24 SC Gaucho vs Brasil de Farroupilha 3-0 46% 53% -12.2 29% 33% -12.2 25% 26% -6.8
27.06.24 Aimore RS vs Monsoon FC RS 1-1 34% 38% -12.5 31% 34% -11.3 36% 39% -8.8
27.06.24 Esportivo RS vs Gremio Esportivo Gloria 0-1 34% 38% -10.5 31% 35% -12.3 36% 41% -12.6
29.06.24 CF Com Vida SAF RS vs Internacional Santa Maria 0-4 19% 19% 1.9 26% 27% -4.0 55% 66% -17.0
29.06.24 EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS vs Veranopolis 0-1 30% 34% -11.0 30% 34% -10.8 40% 44% -10.8
29.06.24 Monsoon FC RS vs Gremio Esportivo Bage 2-0 52% 59% -12.2 27% 30% -11.2 21% 23% -7.1
30.06.24 Aimore RS vs EC Pelotas 2-0 37% 43% -15.4 31% 35% -11.6 32% 34% -4.3
30.06.24 Brasil de Farroupilha vs Gremio Esportivo Gloria 1-0 32% 36% -11.9 31% 35% -11.8 37% 41% -9.4
30.06.24 Passo Fundo vs SC Gaucho 1-0 46% 53% -13.7 29% 32% -11.6 26% 28% -7.9
30.06.24 Uniao Frederiquense vs Esportivo RS 1-1 39% 44% -12.8 31% 35% -12.2 31% 33% -8.1
03.07.24 CE Lajeadense vs Monsoon FC RS 0-0 34% 38% -11.1 30% 34% -11.8 35% 40% -11.5
04.07.24 Brasil de Farroupilha vs EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS 1-3 52% 61% -15.7 26% 29% -8.0 22% 22% -1.2
04.07.24 EC Pelotas vs Gremio Esportivo Bage 1-1 49% 56% -12.9 28% 31% -10.6 23% 24% -5.2
04.07.24 Esportivo RS vs Veranopolis 1-1 39% 43% -10.2 31% 35% -12.7 30% 34% -10.6
07.07.24 Aimore RS vs Sao Gabriel 4-0 58% 70% -16.9 23% 24% -2.8 18% 17% 5.6
07.07.24 CF Com Vida SAF RS vs CE Lajeadense 0-1 28% 31% -8.5 29% 31% -8.4 43% 50% -13.5
07.07.24 Esportivo RS vs EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS 1-2 46% 52% -11.4 27% 31% -10.8 27% 30% -12.0
07.07.24 Gremio Esportivo Bage vs Internacional Santa Maria 1-0 30% 32% -7.3 28% 30% -8.2 42% 51% -16.3
07.07.24 Uniao Frederiquense vs Gremio Esportivo Gloria 1-0 37% 43% -13.5 29% 32% -9.4 34% 37% -8.3
10.07.24 Brasil de Farroupilha vs Uniao Frederiquense 0-1 27% 29% -5.9 28% 31% -8.3 45% 53% -15.6
10.07.24 CE Lajeadense vs Aimore RS 2-1 43% 50% -14.7 30% 34% -11.5 27% 29% -4.2
10.07.24 EC Cruzeiro Cachoerinha RS vs Passo Fundo 0-2 39% 47% -15.6 29% 31% -8.7 32% 34% -6.6
10.07.24 Gremio Esportivo Gloria vs Veranopolis 0-2 47% 55% -13.5 27% 29% -8.3 26% 28% -7.3
10.07.24 Monsoon FC RS vs CF Com Vida SAF RS 1-0 80% 89% -10.9 15% 15% -3.7 6% 4% 46.4
10.07.24 SC Gaucho vs Esportivo RS 0-2 38% 42% -9.6 28% 31% -8.9 34% 40% -14.2
14.07.24 CE Lajeadense vs Passo Fundo 1-0 41% 49% -15.1 31% 35% -12.2 28% 29% -2.8
14.07.24 EC Pelotas vs Gremio Esportivo Gloria 2-0 40% 45% -12.5 30% 34% -11.8 30% 32% -7.6
14.07.24 Uniao Frederiquense vs Monsoon FC RS 1-1 35% 42% -15.0 30% 34% -11.8 34% 37% -7.7
18.07.24 Gremio Esportivo Gloria vs EC Pelotas 2-0 53% 63% -16.6 27% 30% -9.9 20% 19% 4.4
18.07.24 Monsoon FC RS vs Uniao Frederiquense 2-1 50% 58% -14.2 28% 31% -10.2 22% 23% -1.7
23.07.24 EC Pelotas vs Internacional Santa Maria 0-0 42% 50% -15.2 28% 31% -9.1 30% 32% -8.2
28.07.24 Internacional Santa Maria vs EC Pelotas 1-2 45% 53% -13.9 31% 36% -13.2 24% 24% -0.5
28.07.24 Monsoon FC RS vs Passo Fundo 0-0 47% 54% -13.4 30% 35% -12.9 23% 23% -1.1
17.05.25 Esportivo RS vs Uniao Frederiquense 1-1 41% 47% -11.7 31% 35% -12.3 28% 31% -7.8
17.05.25 Internacional Santa Maria vs CE Lajeadense 2-0 53% 62% -14.7 28% 31% -10.6 19% 19% 2.3
17.05.25 Real SC Tramandai RS vs Brasil de Farroupilha 0-2 37% 39% -5.4 29% 33% -11.8 34% 40% -16.2
18.05.25 Aimore RS vs Veranopolis 0-0 52% 63% -17.5 27% 30% -9.4 20% 19% 6.8
18.05.25 CE Gramadense RS vs Passo Fundo 0-0 31% 34% -7.5 30% 34% -11.5 39% 45% -15.0
18.05.25 SC Gaucho vs EC Novo Hamburgo 0-1 33% 36% -8.3 30% 33% -10.7 37% 43% -13.8
24.05.25 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs Aimore RS 0-2 37% 44% -16.1 31% 35% -12.1 32% 33% -4.3
24.05.25 Uniao Frederiquense vs Gremio Esportivo Gloria 2-2 34% 39% -13.3 32% 36% -13.3 34% 38% -8.7
24.05.25 Veranopolis vs Real SC Tramandai RS 3-1 56% 67% -15.6 25% 27% -7.3 19% 18% 2.7
25.05.25 CE Lajeadense vs Esportivo RS 2-0 39% 45% -14.2 31% 35% -12.3 30% 32% -6.3
25.05.25 EC Novo Hamburgo vs Gremio Esportivo Bage 1-0 48% 53% -10.1 32% 38% -15.9 20% 21% -2.8
30.05.25 Passo Fundo vs CE Lajeadense 1-1 50% 60% -15.6 29% 32% -11.4 21% 21% 1.6
31.05.25 Gremio Esportivo Bage vs CE Gramadense RS 1-0 47% 55% -14.0 30% 34% -13.2 23% 24% -3.1
01.06.25 Aimore RS vs Gremio Esportivo Gloria 1-0 45% 56% -18.5 30% 33% -10.9 25% 24% 5.1
01.06.25 Brasil de Farroupilha vs Uniao Frederiquense 3-0 36% 42% -12.8 30% 34% -11.6 33% 36% -8.8
01.06.25 Internacional Santa Maria vs Esportivo RS 3-1 53% 62% -15.1 27% 30% -9.9 20% 19% 3.1
01.06.25 SC Gaucho vs Real SC Tramandai RS 3-0 63% 74% -14.8 23% 24% -6.1 14% 12% 12.2
05.06.25 Brasil de Farroupilha vs CE Gramadense RS 0-3 49% 58% -15.2 27% 29% -8.2 24% 24% -2.8
07.06.25 EC Novo Hamburgo vs Brasil de Farroupilha 1-2 57% 66% -13.3 26% 29% -10.6 17% 16% 4.2
07.06.25 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS vs Veranopolis 0-0 39% 45% -14.1 31% 34% -11.5 30% 32% -5.7
07.06.25 Real SC Tramandai RS vs Internacional Santa Maria 0-1 11% 9% 18.1 22% 22% 0.1 67% 80% -15.6
08.06.25 CE Gramadense RS vs Aimore RS 3-1 26% 29% -12.2 30% 34% -12.0 44% 49% -10.2
08.06.25 Esportivo RS vs SC Gaucho 2-0 35% 40% -11.6 30% 34% -11.5 35% 39% -11.6
08.06.25 Uniao Frederiquense vs CE Lajeadense 0-0 39% 45% -13.9 31% 36% -13.2 30% 32% -7.4
11.06.25 SC Gaucho vs CE Gramadense RS 1-2 43% 47% -8.3 29% 34% -13.1 28% 32% -13.4
12.06.25 Aimore RS vs Real SC Tramandai RS 2-0 75% 85% -12.0 17% 18% -5.6 8% 6% 26.1
12.06.25 CE Lajeadense vs FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS 2-1 45% 51% -12.9 30% 34% -12.1 26% 27% -5.5
12.06.25 Gremio Esportivo Bage vs Esportivo RS 3-0 51% 61% -16.6 26% 29% -7.4 22% 22% 0.8
12.06.25 Internacional Santa Maria vs Gremio Esportivo Gloria 1-1 56% 66% -16.2 26% 28% -7.9 19% 18% 3.9
13.06.25 Brasil de Farroupilha vs Passo Fundo 2-3 39% 45% -15.2 31% 34% -11.3 31% 32% -4.3
14.06.25 Real SC Tramandai RS vs Esportivo RS 1-2 24% 26% -7.5 28% 31% -8.3 48% 56% -13.4
Showing the 100 most recent of 172 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

22 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Brasil de Pelotas 1730.02
2 EC Novo Hamburgo 1687.32
3 Aimore RS 1668.25
4 Gremio Esportivo Brasil de Pelotas RS - DNU BL 1664.67
5 Veranopolis 1621.17
6 EC Pelotas 1617.92
7 Internacional Santa Maria 1611.49
8 Apafut Caxias do Sul RS 1611.40
9 Passo Fundo 1608.29
10 Uniao Frederiquense 1604.75
11 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS 1590.70
12 Esportivo RS 1561.40
13 CE Gramadense RS 1560.44
14 SC Gaucho 1543.35
15 Brasil de Farroupilha 1530.61
16 Gremio Esportivo Gloria 1515.76
17 Gremio Esportivo Bage 1498.37
18 EC Guarani RS 1483.56
19 CE Lajeadense 1456.39
20 CF Com Vida SAF RS 1383.53
21 Guarani RS 1379.98
22 Real SC Tramandai RS 1350.86

Away Ratings

22 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 EC Novo Hamburgo 1606.16
2 Brasil de Pelotas 1592.01
3 Passo Fundo 1582.40
4 Gremio Esportivo Brasil de Pelotas RS - DNU BL 1550.00
5 EC Pelotas 1531.14
6 Veranopolis 1530.83
7 FC Santa Cruz do Sul RS 1529.99
8 Esportivo RS 1527.17
9 Aimore RS 1525.14
10 Uniao Frederiquense 1523.82
11 Brasil de Farroupilha 1511.05
12 Apafut Caxias do Sul RS 1482.08
13 CE Gramadense RS 1469.12
14 SC Gaucho 1459.79
15 Gremio Esportivo Bage 1456.18
16 EC Guarani RS 1436.38
17 Gremio Esportivo Gloria 1415.57
18 Internacional Santa Maria 1401.55
19 CE Lajeadense 1326.96
20 CF Com Vida SAF RS 1245.14
21 Real SC Tramandai RS 1234.53
22 Guarani RS 1212.59