ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 71
Avg Goals 2.31
Avg Home 1.44
Avg Away 0.87
Home Win % 49.3%
Draw % 31.0%
Away Win % 19.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 71
Avg Brier Score 0.5830
Pick Accuracy 53.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5896
Market Brier 0.5899
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 100.0%
ROI (flat stake) 195.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 71 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit 1.95 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 100.0% 1.00 1.95 195.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.8% 0.0% 1
10–20% 16.3% 6.5% 31
20–30% 26.5% 30.2% 96
30–40% 34.6% 25.0% 24
40–50% 44.7% 46.2% 26
50–60% 55.6% 58.3% 24
60–70% 64.2% 70.0% 10
70–80% 75.1% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
05.05.24 ASEEV GO vs Trindade AC 1-2 44% 42% 6.2 26% 30% -13.8 30% 41% -27.4
11.05.24 Centro Oeste SAF GO vs Gremio Anapolis 0-2 69% 75% -8.8 19% 21% -7.7 12% 15% -20.7
12.05.24 Trindade AC vs AA Anapolina 1-0 31% 35% -12.5 29% 34% -14.9 40% 43% -8.1
21.05.24 Gremio Anapolis vs Inhumas EC 1-2 54% 58% -7.2 27% 31% -13.0 19% 23% -16.6
26.05.24 Trindade AC vs Gremio Anapolis 2-0 58% 62% -6.6 25% 29% -12.6 17% 21% -19.2
01.06.24 Centro Oeste SAF GO vs Trindade AC 0-0 59% 62% -3.7 24% 29% -15.3 16% 22% -24.7
02.06.24 AA Anapolina vs Gremio Anapolis 3-2 62% 65% -5.2 25% 29% -16.5 13% 17% -22.6
09.06.24 Trindade AC vs Abecat Ouvidorense GO 1-0 45% 44% 0.2 27% 31% -12.6 28% 36% -22.5
12.06.24 Gremio Anapolis vs ASEEV GO 1-0 55% 55% 1.0 26% 31% -17.7 19% 26% -27.6
15.06.24 Abecat Ouvidorense GO vs Trindade AC 1-0 44% 43% 3.7 30% 36% -16.8 26% 33% -23.1
16.06.24 ASEEV GO vs Gremio Anapolis 3-0 39% 39% 0.6 30% 35% -14.0 31% 38% -18.9
22.06.24 Gremio Anapolis vs AA Anapolina 2-1 29% 29% -1.1 28% 32% -12.0 43% 51% -15.8
23.06.24 Trindade AC vs Centro Oeste SAF GO 0-0 36% 36% -1.4 28% 32% -12.3 36% 44% -19.3
29.06.24 Gremio Anapolis vs Trindade AC 3-1 39% 41% -4.2 30% 34% -13.6 31% 37% -15.9
06.07.24 Inhumas EC vs Gremio Anapolis 1-0 57% 60% -4.3 25% 29% -13.9 18% 23% -21.9
08.07.24 Trindade AC vs Santa Helena 3-1 63% 65% -2.9 22% 26% -15.4 16% 22% -28.0
11.07.24 Gremio Anapolis vs Centro Oeste SAF GO 1-2 31% 31% 0.6 28% 32% -12.2 41% 50% -18.5
12.07.24 AA Anapolina vs Trindade AC 0-1 55% 60% -7.2 24% 27% -9.5 21% 26% -19.5
20.07.24 Abecat Ouvidorense GO vs Gremio Anapolis 1-1 63% 67% -5.7 23% 27% -14.5 14% 18% -23.1
21.07.24 Trindade AC vs ASEEV GO 1-0 47% 43% 8.2 27% 33% -18.2 26% 36% -29.4
28.07.24 Gremio Anapolis vs Santa Helena 3-2 75% 81% -7.6 18% 21% -13.0 7% 8% -18.9
28.07.24 Inhumas EC vs Trindade AC 2-0 46% 44% 4.6 28% 33% -16.1 26% 34% -25.9
22.05.25 Gremio Anapolis vs Morrinhos FC 0-0 44% 44% -0.1 28% 32% -14.0 28% 36% -23.3
22.05.25 Rio Verde vs Ipora EC 4-0 50% 54% -8.2 27% 31% -12.2 23% 27% -15.1
24.05.25 AA Anapolina vs Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO 2-2 63% 67% -6.1 24% 28% -14.6 14% 17% -21.5
25.05.25 Morrinhos FC vs Rio Verde 2-0 39% 34% 14.7 29% 34% -16.2 32% 44% -27.5
25.05.25 Trindade AC vs Centro Oeste SAF GO 0-1 47% 45% 3.8 29% 35% -16.8 24% 31% -24.3
01.06.25 Ipora EC vs Morrinhos FC 2-1 42% 41% 2.6 29% 33% -14.3 30% 38% -23.1
03.06.25 Trindade AC vs AA Anapolina 2-2 38% 36% 5.6 30% 35% -14.8 32% 42% -22.2
07.06.25 Centro Oeste SAF GO vs Rio Verde 0-0 48% 44% 6.9 29% 36% -18.7 23% 32% -27.3
07.06.25 Gremio Anapolis vs Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO 1-1 40% 41% -1.7 29% 34% -13.6 31% 38% -18.9
08.06.25 AA Anapolina vs Ipora EC 3-1 59% 60% -2.0 25% 29% -16.6 16% 22% -26.1
08.06.25 Morrinhos FC vs Trindade AC 0-1 50% 50% -0.9 27% 32% -15.6 23% 31% -24.6
14.06.25 Centro Oeste SAF GO vs Gremio Anapolis 2-0 58% 58% -1.0 26% 31% -18.2 17% 23% -26.9
15.06.25 Ipora EC vs Trindade AC 1-2 40% 41% -2.9 29% 34% -13.5 31% 38% -17.8
15.06.25 Rio Verde vs AA Anapolina 0-0 41% 41% 0.8 30% 35% -14.9 29% 37% -21.1
19.06.25 Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO vs Ipora EC 5-3 59% 62% -4.7 25% 29% -15.6 16% 21% -23.4
19.06.25 Gremio Anapolis vs AA Anapolina 0-1 22% 20% 9.8 26% 29% -9.3 52% 64% -18.2
19.06.25 Morrinhos FC vs Centro Oeste SAF GO 0-3 42% 40% 4.9 31% 37% -17.2 27% 36% -23.4
19.06.25 Trindade AC vs Rio Verde 3-0 46% 45% 0.5 29% 34% -15.4 26% 33% -23.0
22.06.25 AA Anapolina vs Morrinhos FC 2-0 65% 67% -3.3 23% 29% -18.6 12% 16% -26.1
22.06.25 Centro Oeste SAF GO vs Ipora EC 3-0 61% 62% -3.1 24% 29% -16.8 15% 20% -25.1
22.06.25 Rio Verde vs Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO 0-0 55% 59% -5.8 26% 30% -13.9 18% 23% -20.0
22.06.25 Trindade AC vs Gremio Anapolis 1-1 58% 58% -0.7 24% 29% -16.5 18% 26% -28.2
29.06.25 Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO vs Rio Verde 2-2 45% 48% -5.2 28% 32% -12.6 27% 32% -17.4
29.06.25 Gremio Anapolis vs Trindade AC 3-2 36% 36% 0.3 29% 34% -13.3 34% 42% -19.0
29.06.25 Ipora EC vs Centro Oeste SAF GO 1-3 29% 29% -0.1 29% 33% -13.3 43% 51% -17.0
29.06.25 Morrinhos FC vs AA Anapolina 2-2 22% 22% -0.1 28% 32% -13.5 50% 58% -14.2
05.07.25 AA Anapolina vs Gremio Anapolis 2-0 65% 65% 0.1 23% 29% -23.1 12% 17% -31.4
05.07.25 Centro Oeste SAF GO vs Morrinhos FC 0-0 57% 57% 0.5 27% 33% -19.8 16% 22% -26.9
06.07.25 Ipora EC vs Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO 1-1 33% 34% -1.5 28% 31% -10.6 39% 47% -16.8
06.07.25 Rio Verde vs Trindade AC 2-1 45% 44% 1.9 29% 34% -15.7 26% 33% -23.1
09.07.25 Morrinhos FC vs Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO 0-1 40% 41% -2.1 30% 36% -15.1 30% 36% -18.2
10.07.25 Gremio Anapolis vs Centro Oeste SAF GO 1-1 30% 29% 4.1 30% 34% -13.2 40% 49% -17.3
10.07.25 Trindade AC vs Ipora EC 4-0 69% 72% -4.6 20% 23% -14.8 12% 16% -26.9
11.07.25 AA Anapolina vs Rio Verde 0-0 57% 56% 2.6 28% 36% -21.9 15% 21% -28.0
13.07.25 Ipora EC vs AA Anapolina 0-0 25% 27% -8.6 28% 33% -14.5 47% 52% -9.7
13.07.25 Rio Verde vs Centro Oeste SAF GO 1-0 52% 55% -4.6 28% 33% -16.0 20% 25% -20.6
13.07.25 Trindade AC vs Morrinhos FC 2-1 55% 56% -1.0 28% 34% -18.5 17% 23% -24.7
19.07.25 Centro Oeste SAF GO vs Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO 1-0 58% 61% -6.0 25% 29% -13.4 17% 21% -19.2
19.07.25 Gremio Anapolis vs Rio Verde 1-2 27% 26% 3.9 29% 34% -13.2 44% 53% -16.5
20.07.25 AA Anapolina vs Trindade AC 2-0 51% 51% -0.1 27% 32% -16.5 22% 29% -25.7
20.07.25 Morrinhos FC vs Ipora EC 1-0 54% 56% -3.7 26% 30% -14.6 20% 26% -23.1
26.07.25 Centro Oeste SAF GO vs Trindade AC 2-1 53% 56% -5.0 28% 32% -14.7 20% 24% -19.2
26.07.25 Gremio Anapolis vs Ipora EC 2-1 59% 62% -5.1 25% 29% -14.9 16% 20% -21.6
27.07.25 Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO vs AA Anapolina 0-1 25% 24% 3.2 27% 30% -10.9 48% 58% -17.2
27.07.25 Rio Verde vs Morrinhos FC 1-1 51% 50% 2.5 28% 34% -19.0 21% 29% -27.2
30.07.25 Ipora EC vs Rio Verde 2-2 21% 22% -4.7 26% 30% -13.0 52% 60% -12.9
30.07.25 Morrinhos FC vs Gremio Anapolis 2-2 42% 38% 7.9 30% 36% -16.2 29% 38% -24.3
30.07.25 Trindade AC vs Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO 1-1 54% 55% -1.5 26% 30% -15.3 20% 27% -25.2
30.07.26 Goiania EC vs Gremio Anapolis 2-1 64% 67% -4.6 23% 27% -15.0 14% 18% -24.5

Home Ratings

14 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 EC Rio Verde GO 1664.45
2 Bom Jesus EC GO 1586.25
3 Rio Verde 1581.94
4 Tupi RS 1565.29
5 Goianesia EC 1564.28
6 Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO 1557.37
7 Goiania EC 1523.48
8 Mineiros EC GO 1476.69
9 Morrinhos FC 1474.37
10 Morrinhos FC GO 1461.87
11 Crixas EC Go 1456.75
12 Trindade AC 1446.21
13 Gremio Anapolis 1440.04
14 Ipora EC 1431.17

Away Ratings

14 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 EC Rio Verde GO 1626.66
2 Rio Verde 1604.41
3 Bom Jesus EC GO 1602.45
4 Goianesia EC 1579.14
5 Goiania EC 1562.61
6 Morrinhos FC GO 1550.00
7 Mineiros EC GO 1513.32
8 Morrinhos FC 1458.94
9 Tupi RS 1448.62
10 Associacao Tupy de Esportes GO 1407.71
11 Crixas EC Go 1377.53
12 Trindade AC 1363.83
13 Gremio Anapolis 1342.81
14 Ipora EC 1288.93