ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 127
Avg Goals 2.23
Avg Home 1.25
Avg Away 0.98
Home Win % 43.3%
Draw % 29.9%
Away Win % 26.8%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 127
Avg Brier Score 0.5901
Pick Accuracy 45.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5946
Market Brier 0.5904
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 127 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.7% 0.0% 10
10–20% 16.2% 2.2% 45
20–30% 26.4% 37.2% 137
30–40% 33.3% 28.4% 88
40–50% 44.3% 33.3% 48
50–60% 54.9% 46.9% 32
60–70% 63.7% 83.3% 12
70–80% 76.2% 100.0% 7
80–90% 86.1% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
13.01.24 Chapadinha FC MA vs Maranhao 0-2 14% 13% 1.9 22% 23% -1.3 64% 75% -14.9
13.01.24 Moto Clube vs Pinheiro AC 0-0 58% 66% -12.5 25% 27% -6.3 17% 19% -10.4
13.01.24 Sampaio Correa vs Cordino EC 2-1 68% 77% -12.2 20% 21% -2.2 12% 13% -9.6
14.01.24 Tuntum MA vs SD Imperatriz 1-1 39% 38% 0.8 28% 30% -9.1 34% 44% -24.2
17.01.24 Pinheiro AC vs Sampaio Correa 1-2 20% 22% -11.9 28% 31% -10.1 53% 59% -10.3
18.01.24 Maranhao vs Tuntum MA 4-0 67% 74% -9.0 21% 23% -8.6 12% 14% -16.3
18.01.24 SD Imperatriz vs Moto Clube 3-1 32% 36% -9.7 29% 31% -7.4 39% 45% -14.7
20.01.24 Moto Clube vs Chapadinha FC MA 4-2 61% 67% -8.6 25% 28% -11.4 14% 17% -15.7
20.01.24 Pinheiro AC vs Maranhao 2-2 19% 23% -17.8 26% 29% -10.6 55% 61% -8.5
20.01.24 SD Imperatriz vs Cordino EC 1-0 43% 51% -14.3 30% 33% -9.4 27% 29% -7.2
21.01.24 Tuntum MA vs Sampaio Correa 0-1 17% 17% 1.6 25% 26% -3.1 58% 69% -16.1
24.01.24 Cordino EC vs Maranhao 1-2 23% 29% -19.2 26% 29% -9.1 51% 56% -8.3
24.01.24 Pinheiro AC vs SD Imperatriz 2-2 40% 45% -13.0 29% 32% -8.6 31% 35% -11.8
24.01.24 Tuntum MA vs Moto Clube 3-2 24% 24% 0.5 28% 29% -5.3 48% 58% -17.5
25.01.24 Sampaio Correa vs Chapadinha FC MA 2-0 83% 91% -8.5 12% 12% -3.7 5% 6% -13.6
27.01.24 Chapadinha FC MA vs SD Imperatriz 0-1 24% 27% -8.8 28% 29% -6.5 48% 56% -14.3
27.01.24 Cordino EC vs Moto Clube 0-0 35% 41% -14.3 31% 34% -9.8 34% 38% -8.7
28.01.24 Maranhao vs Sampaio Correa 3-0 34% 37% -8.9 29% 31% -7.5 37% 44% -16.0
28.01.24 Tuntum MA vs Pinheiro AC 0-0 41% 44% -7.8 28% 30% -7.4 31% 38% -18.0
01.02.24 SD Imperatriz vs Maranhao 0-1 26% 29% -12.2 29% 31% -8.3 46% 51% -11.2
03.02.24 Chapadinha FC MA vs Tuntum MA 1-0 30% 32% -8.0 29% 32% -8.8 41% 49% -16.2
03.02.24 Sampaio Correa vs Moto Clube 2-0 57% 62% -8.5 26% 29% -10.5 17% 21% -17.2
07.02.24 Cordino EC vs Tuntum MA 3-3 47% 52% -9.8 28% 31% -9.1 25% 29% -15.4
08.02.24 Moto Clube vs Maranhao 1-5 30% 34% -10.2 30% 32% -8.6 40% 47% -13.9
08.02.24 SD Imperatriz vs Sampaio Correa 1-0 33% 40% -17.6 29% 32% -9.3 38% 41% -7.4
17.02.24 Cordino EC vs Sampaio Correa 2-5 20% 23% -13.1 26% 28% -7.4 55% 61% -11.1
17.02.24 Maranhao vs Chapadinha FC MA 1-0 77% 84% -8.8 16% 17% -7.0 7% 8% -14.2
17.02.24 SD Imperatriz vs Tuntum MA 0-1 55% 61% -10.8 27% 29% -9.5 19% 22% -14.1
23.02.24 Sampaio Correa vs Pinheiro AC 2-2 62% 68% -8.3 23% 26% -10.6 15% 18% -19.4
24.02.24 Tuntum MA vs Maranhao 2-0 30% 34% -13.7 29% 31% -7.9 41% 47% -10.9
01.03.24 Moto Clube vs SD Imperatriz 0-1 43% 49% -12.0 29% 32% -8.7 28% 31% -11.6
02.03.24 Maranhao vs Pinheiro AC 2-0 60% 68% -12.1 24% 25% -5.2 16% 18% -11.4
03.03.24 Chapadinha FC MA vs Moto Clube 0-1 26% 29% -12.6 29% 31% -8.6 46% 52% -11.7
03.03.24 Cordino EC vs SD Imperatriz 3-2 29% 33% -12.5 29% 32% -8.7 41% 47% -11.0
04.03.24 Sampaio Correa vs Tuntum MA 2-0 66% 72% -9.4 22% 24% -8.4 13% 15% -15.4
09.03.24 SD Imperatriz vs Pinheiro AC 2-1 50% 55% -9.4 28% 30% -9.1 23% 27% -16.1
10.03.24 Maranhao vs Cordino EC 2-0 62% 70% -12.4 23% 24% -4.6 15% 17% -9.8
10.03.24 Moto Clube vs Tuntum MA 1-1 55% 63% -12.6 26% 29% -8.2 18% 21% -11.4
16.03.24 Pinheiro AC vs Tuntum MA 4-0 45% 49% -8.7 29% 32% -9.6 26% 31% -15.7
16.03.24 Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao 2-2 39% 42% -7.8 30% 33% -10.3 31% 38% -17.4
16.03.24 SD Imperatriz vs Chapadinha FC MA 1-0 64% 71% -10.4 23% 26% -8.6 13% 15% -11.9
20.03.24 Moto Clube vs Cordino EC 2-1 57% 65% -12.2 26% 29% -8.3 17% 19% -10.1
23.03.24 Moto Clube vs Sampaio Correa 0-0 27% 29% -6.3 28% 30% -6.9 45% 54% -16.7
24.03.24 Tuntum MA vs Chapadinha FC MA 5-4 52% 59% -12.0 28% 30% -8.6 21% 23% -10.9
09.05.24 Maranhao vs Moto Clube 1-1 56% 64% -12.7 27% 29% -6.9 18% 19% -6.5
30.05.24 Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao 1-0 35% 41% -14.3 31% 35% -10.7 34% 37% -8.4
15.06.24 Maranhao vs Sampaio Correa 0-1 34% 37% -9.2 31% 34% -9.8 36% 42% -14.1
11.01.25 SD Imperatriz vs Sampaio Correa 0-0 26% 29% -8.2 29% 32% -8.9 44% 52% -14.3
12.01.25 Moto Clube vs Maranhao 1-1 27% 31% -13.0 29% 31% -8.4 44% 50% -11.6
15.01.25 IAPE vs Sampaio Correa 0-3 20% 20% -0.8 26% 27% -3.7 54% 65% -16.1
15.01.25 Tuntum MA vs SD Imperatriz 1-2 27% 29% -7.7 30% 33% -9.7 43% 50% -14.5
18.01.25 SD Imperatriz vs Pinheiro AC 2-1 49% 54% -8.7 28% 31% -10.2 23% 27% -16.6
19.01.25 EC Viana MA vs Sampaio Correa 0-3 8% 10% -23.4 17% 21% -17.6 75% 79% -5.5
25.01.25 IAPE vs SD Imperatriz 1-1 27% 27% -0.6 28% 29% -5.2 45% 56% -18.5
26.01.25 Pinheiro AC vs Moto Clube 1-0 28% 30% -7.6 29% 31% -7.0 43% 51% -15.4
29.01.25 Sampaio Correa vs Pinheiro AC 3-1 59% 66% -10.0 26% 29% -10.3 15% 17% -12.9
29.01.25 Tuntum MA vs Moto Clube 1-1 27% 31% -11.0 29% 32% -9.2 43% 50% -13.4
30.01.25 SD Imperatriz vs EC Viana MA 5-0 89% 96% -7.5 9% 9% 1.3 2% 2% 3.5
01.02.25 Sampaio Correa vs Moto Clube 1-1 52% 60% -13.0 27% 29% -7.2 20% 22% -8.7
01.02.25 Tuntum MA vs Pinheiro AC 2-1 36% 39% -8.5 30% 34% -10.2 34% 40% -15.8
02.02.25 Maranhao vs SD Imperatriz 3-2 46% 50% -8.1 30% 33% -11.4 25% 29% -16.6
08.02.25 EC Viana MA vs Tuntum MA 1-3 9% 10% -12.2 17% 18% -5.5 74% 82% -9.7
08.02.25 Moto Clube vs SD Imperatriz 0-1 42% 48% -12.0 30% 32% -8.5 29% 32% -11.4
09.02.25 Pinheiro AC vs IAPE 0-2 48% 54% -10.3 27% 29% -7.3 24% 29% -15.1
18.02.25 Tuntum MA vs IAPE 1-1 42% 44% -4.8 28% 31% -9.0 29% 36% -19.6
22.02.25 SD Imperatriz vs Tuntum MA 0-0 58% 64% -8.6 25% 28% -9.7 17% 20% -16.6
25.02.25 Moto Clube vs IAPE 1-0 55% 62% -11.1 27% 30% -9.4 17% 19% -9.1
01.03.25 IAPE vs Maranhao 1-0 21% 22% -4.6 28% 31% -8.0 50% 59% -14.2
09.03.25 Sampaio Correa vs SD Imperatriz 1-2 49% 56% -14.0 28% 31% -7.7 23% 25% -7.9
16.03.25 Moto Clube vs Pinheiro AC 1-0 49% 55% -10.7 28% 31% -9.2 23% 26% -13.3
18.03.25 IAPE vs Tuntum MA 2-1 41% 45% -9.3 30% 33% -10.4 29% 34% -16.1
21.03.25 Maranhao vs Tuntum MA 1-0 65% 71% -8.3 23% 26% -11.8 12% 14% -16.8
22.03.25 SD Imperatriz vs IAPE 1-0 52% 58% -9.5 28% 31% -9.8 20% 23% -13.7
30.03.25 Sampaio Correa vs IAPE 3-1 58% 66% -11.8 25% 27% -6.8 16% 18% -9.8
02.04.25 Tuntum MA vs Maranhao 1-0 25% 29% -13.6 28% 31% -9.0 46% 52% -11.0
05.04.25 Moto Clube vs Sampaio Correa 0-0 34% 39% -14.4 31% 34% -9.8 36% 39% -8.6
06.04.25 IAPE vs EC Viana MA 3-0 78% 85% -8.3 16% 17% -9.3 6% 8% -15.5
06.04.25 SD Imperatriz vs Maranhao 0-0 41% 45% -10.1 36% 43% -15.8 23% 24% -4.5
10.04.25 IAPE vs Moto Clube 2-0 28% 30% -8.0 30% 34% -10.2 42% 49% -14.5
10.04.25 Maranhao vs Pinheiro AC 1-1 58% 65% -9.8 26% 29% -9.5 16% 18% -12.4
13.04.25 Maranhao vs IAPE 1-1 56% 61% -8.4 27% 30% -11.5 18% 21% -16.2
16.04.25 Sampaio Correa vs Tuntum MA 1-1 66% 74% -10.2 23% 25% -9.0 11% 12% -9.9
24.04.25 IAPE vs Pinheiro AC 2-0 50% 56% -10.3 28% 31% -9.8 22% 26% -14.3
24.04.25 Sampaio Correa vs Maranhao 0-3 43% 48% -8.7 30% 33% -9.9 26% 31% -13.9
24.04.25 SD Imperatriz vs Moto Clube 0-1 39% 43% -9.2 32% 36% -11.6 30% 34% -13.6
01.05.25 Maranhao vs IAPE 4-0 54% 61% -11.3 27% 29% -8.2 19% 22% -11.4
01.05.25 SD Imperatriz vs Sampaio Correa 1-2 39% 43% -10.9 31% 35% -10.8 30% 34% -11.6
08.05.25 IAPE vs Maranhao 1-0 28% 32% -14.6 29% 32% -9.8 43% 49% -11.1
08.05.25 Sampaio Correa vs SD Imperatriz 0-2 46% 53% -12.4 29% 32% -9.4 25% 28% -11.2
15.05.25 SD Imperatriz vs Maranhao 0-0 32% 37% -13.2 31% 34% -10.4 37% 41% -9.5
17.05.25 Maranhao vs SD Imperatriz 2-0 46% 51% -8.7 31% 35% -11.9 23% 27% -13.1
10.01.26 SD Imperatriz vs Sampaio Correa 1-1 35% 40% -12.1 32% 36% -10.9 33% 36% -9.2
11.01.26 IAPE vs ITZ Sport 1-0 58% 69% -16.0 26% 27% -3.9 16% 15% 4.1
11.01.26 Maranhao vs Moto Clube 1-1 54% 61% -11.5 29% 32% -10.8 18% 19% -7.6
11.01.26 Tuntum MA vs Luminense AC MA 0-2 35% 41% -14.2 30% 33% -9.4 35% 38% -9.5
14.01.26 ITZ Sport vs Moto Clube 1-1 24% 29% -17.7 31% 36% -14.3 46% 49% -5.9
14.01.26 Luminense AC MA vs SD Imperatriz 1-0 26% 29% -9.4 31% 34% -11.1 43% 50% -13.1
14.01.26 Maranhao vs Tuntum MA 3-1 77% 86% -11.2 17% 17% -0.6 7% 7% -0.8
14.01.26 Sampaio Correa vs IAPE 0-0 50% 53% -5.3 29% 34% -14.7 20% 25% -19.2
17.01.26 ITZ Sport vs SD Imperatriz 0-1 17% 20% -16.1 28% 32% -14.1 56% 60% -6.7
Showing the 100 most recent of 127 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Maranhao 1711.09
2 Sampaio Correa 1687.73
3 SD Imperatriz 1617.47
4 Moto Clube 1583.44
5 Tuntum MA 1532.71
6 IAPE 1487.79
7 Luminense AC MA 1481.93
8 ITZ Sport 1399.92

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Maranhao 1608.66
2 Sampaio Correa 1588.40
3 SD Imperatriz 1486.19
4 IAPE 1486.08
5 Tuntum MA 1477.78
6 Moto Clube 1465.19
7 Luminense AC MA 1461.09
8 ITZ Sport 1269.86