ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 134
Avg Goals 2.34
Avg Home 1.29
Avg Away 1.05
Home Win % 35.1%
Draw % 31.3%
Away Win % 33.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 134
Avg Brier Score 0.6155
Pick Accuracy 50.0%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6137
Market Brier 0.6221
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 42
Value Bet Hit Rate 14.3%
ROI (flat stake) 73.8%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 64.3% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 32 of 134 matches had at least one · staked 42.00, profit 31.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 5 0.0% 5.00 -5.00 -100.0%
draw 10 30.0% 10.00 9.50 95.0%
away 27 11.1% 27.00 26.50 98.2%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.9% 33.3% 6
10–20% 15.9% 12.0% 50
20–30% 26.1% 27.8% 151
30–40% 33.7% 30.4% 92
40–50% 45.2% 56.8% 44
50–60% 54.0% 51.4% 37
60–70% 65.7% 53.3% 15
70–80% 75.4% 40.0% 5
80–90% 84.4% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
20.01.24 Cuiaba vs Primavera AC 1-1 73% 90% -18.5 17% 13% 27.4 10% 6% 68.3
20.01.24 Luverdense EC vs CEOV Operario 2-0 46% 57% -20.4 27% 28% -1.8 27% 27% 0.6
20.01.24 Uniao Rondonopolis vs CE Dom Bosco 2-0 63% 79% -20.0 22% 21% 7.3 14% 11% 31.2
21.01.24 Nova Mutum EC vs Mixto MT 0-1 41% 50% -17.2 30% 32% -7.2 29% 30% -5.5
24.01.24 CEOV Operario vs Cuiaba 2-2 11% 8% 45.2 19% 15% 24.9 70% 87% -19.9
25.01.24 Academia FC MT vs Uniao Rondonopolis 1-2 22% 23% -4.4 29% 31% -6.2 49% 58% -15.9
25.01.24 CE Dom Bosco vs Nova Mutum EC 1-1 24% 24% 0.1 29% 30% -4.6 47% 57% -18.3
26.01.24 Mixto MT vs Luverdense EC 1-1 40% 48% -16.7 29% 31% -5.9 31% 33% -7.2
27.01.24 Academia FC MT vs Primavera AC 0-2 41% 50% -17.5 31% 33% -8.3 28% 29% -4.3
27.01.24 Araguaia vs Nova Mutum EC 0-2 28% 32% -11.7 31% 34% -8.9 40% 45% -11.7
27.01.24 Cuiaba vs CE Dom Bosco 5-0 85% 97% -12.0 11% 8% 26.5 4% 2% 102.5
28.01.24 CEOV Operario vs Mixto MT 2-1 39% 47% -15.2 29% 31% -6.3 31% 35% -10.2
28.01.24 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Luverdense EC 3-0 43% 51% -15.5 30% 32% -7.3 27% 29% -6.8
01.02.24 Mixto MT vs Academia FC MT 2-1 44% 52% -15.2 29% 31% -6.2 27% 29% -6.3
01.02.24 Nova Mutum EC vs Uniao Rondonopolis 0-1 30% 33% -10.4 31% 34% -8.6 39% 45% -13.9
02.02.24 Luverdense EC vs Cuiaba 1-2 19% 19% 0.1 27% 28% -2.7 54% 65% -17.6
04.02.24 Luverdense EC vs Araguaia 0-0 69% 83% -17.6 21% 20% 6.5 10% 6% 61.3
04.02.24 Mixto MT vs Cuiaba 0-0 15% 13% 9.1 24% 23% 3.6 62% 75% -17.6
04.02.24 Uniao Rondonopolis vs CEOV Operario 2-1 49% 58% -16.2 29% 31% -6.6 23% 23% -2.3
09.02.24 Cuiaba vs Uniao Rondonopolis 1-1 59% 71% -17.2 24% 24% -0.2 17% 16% 6.0
10.02.24 Academia FC MT vs Nova Mutum EC 2-1 32% 37% -12.6 32% 35% -9.7 36% 41% -11.9
10.02.24 CEOV Operario vs CE Dom Bosco 1-0 58% 70% -18.1 25% 24% 0.6 18% 17% 6.9
11.02.24 Araguaia vs Mixto MT 1-2 14% 11% 29.6 24% 23% 5.7 62% 78% -19.6
15.02.24 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Primavera AC 1-0 56% 68% -18.2 26% 27% -2.7 18% 16% 10.5
16.02.24 CEOV Operario vs Nova Mutum EC 1-2 40% 47% -14.8 30% 33% -8.7 30% 33% -10.2
16.02.24 Cuiaba vs Araguaia 3-0 83% 95% -12.5 11% 9% 25.5 5% 3% 51.7
16.02.24 Luverdense EC vs Academia FC MT 3-2 48% 56% -15.4 29% 31% -6.9 24% 25% -5.7
17.02.24 Mixto MT vs Uniao Rondonopolis 1-3 31% 33% -7.7 30% 32% -7.5 39% 48% -17.3
18.02.24 Academia FC MT vs Cuiaba 0-2 13% 11% 24.4 23% 21% 8.5 64% 79% -18.6
18.02.24 Araguaia vs CEOV Operario 1-2 20% 19% 4.6 27% 27% -0.5 54% 66% -19.1
18.02.24 CE Dom Bosco vs Primavera AC 1-1 31% 36% -13.9 31% 34% -9.0 37% 42% -10.5
18.02.24 Nova Mutum EC vs Luverdense EC 0-1 36% 42% -13.8 31% 34% -8.6 33% 37% -10.6
22.02.24 CE Dom Bosco vs Mixto MT 2-2 22% 22% -2.2 28% 29% -4.2 50% 61% -17.4
24.02.24 CEOV Operario vs Academia FC MT 1-0 39% 45% -13.1 29% 31% -6.1 31% 35% -11.2
24.02.24 Cuiaba vs Nova Mutum EC 2-2 67% 82% -18.1 20% 18% 10.3 13% 11% 21.7
24.02.24 Luverdense EC vs CE Dom Bosco 4-1 53% 63% -16.5 26% 27% -2.6 21% 21% -1.1
24.02.24 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Araguaia 4-1 72% 86% -16.4 18% 15% 14.7 10% 8% 28.1
02.03.24 Mixto MT vs CEOV Operario 2-3 42% 49% -14.0 30% 32% -7.6 28% 31% -9.6
02.03.24 Nova Mutum EC vs Luverdense EC 2-2 37% 42% -13.2 30% 33% -8.7 33% 38% -12.8
09.03.24 Luverdense EC vs Nova Mutum EC 1-0 49% 60% -17.9 28% 29% -4.6 23% 22% 1.3
10.03.24 CEOV Operario vs Mixto MT 2-3 38% 44% -14.3 29% 31% -5.6 33% 37% -11.3
16.03.24 Mixto MT vs Uniao Rondonopolis 0-1 30% 33% -10.1 29% 31% -6.5 41% 49% -16.3
17.03.24 Luverdense EC vs Cuiaba 0-1 20% 21% -2.4 26% 27% -1.0 53% 65% -17.4
23.03.24 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Mixto MT 2-1 49% 60% -17.3 28% 29% -5.5 23% 24% -3.4
24.03.24 Cuiaba vs Luverdense EC 4-3 64% 77% -16.7 22% 21% 2.7 14% 13% 7.2
11.01.25 Luverdense EC vs Primavera AC 1-1 55% 68% -19.0 26% 27% -2.2 18% 17% 10.9
11.01.25 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Mixto MT 1-1 37% 43% -15.3 31% 34% -8.9 32% 36% -9.6
12.01.25 CEOV Operario vs Cuiaba 0-0 53% 68% -22.0 25% 24% 2.9 22% 19% 12.9
16.01.25 Academia FC MT vs CEOV Operario 1-1 23% 24% -3.1 29% 31% -5.8 48% 58% -17.5
16.01.25 Mixto MT vs Nova Mutum EC 5-0 51% 62% -18.1 30% 32% -7.9 20% 18% 8.5
16.01.25 Sport Sinop MT vs Luverdense EC 1-2 23% 24% -2.6 27% 28% -1.8 50% 60% -17.8
18.01.25 Cuiaba vs Mixto MT 1-1 22% 22% 2.1 27% 28% -1.6 50% 62% -18.7
18.01.25 Luverdense EC vs Nova Mutum EC 1-1 57% 70% -19.3 26% 26% -1.4 17% 15% 16.2
19.01.25 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Academia FC MT 1-0 47% 56% -15.5 30% 32% -8.6 24% 25% -5.8
21.01.25 CEOV Operario vs Sport Sinop MT 4-0 56% 68% -17.4 26% 26% -2.5 18% 17% 4.4
25.01.25 Mixto MT vs CEOV Operario 1-1 44% 51% -15.0 30% 32% -8.2 27% 29% -8.9
25.01.25 Nova Mutum EC vs Sport Sinop MT 1-0 59% 74% -19.8 24% 24% 2.6 17% 14% 20.4
26.01.25 Luverdense EC vs Uniao Rondonopolis 0-3 44% 52% -15.7 32% 36% -11.1 24% 24% -1.6
29.01.25 Academia FC MT vs Primavera AC 0-1 33% 37% -11.4 31% 34% -8.6 36% 42% -13.1
30.01.25 Cuiaba vs Luverdense EC 3-1 56% 70% -20.9 27% 28% -2.3 17% 13% 28.9
31.01.25 Uniao Rondonopolis vs CEOV Operario 0-1 41% 49% -15.9 30% 32% -6.5 29% 30% -4.9
01.02.25 Mixto MT vs Luverdense EC 4-1 40% 45% -12.2 31% 33% -8.5 30% 33% -11.2
02.02.25 Academia FC MT vs Cuiaba 0-1 17% 15% 13.7 27% 28% -2.3 56% 69% -19.4
05.02.25 CEOV Operario vs Nova Mutum EC 2-1 49% 60% -19.0 29% 30% -5.5 23% 22% 3.8
08.02.25 Cuiaba vs Nova Mutum EC 5-0 67% 85% -21.4 20% 17% 19.5 13% 9% 48.0
08.02.25 Mixto MT vs Academia FC MT 3-1 67% 79% -15.2 20% 20% 2.5 12% 11% 9.8
09.02.25 CEOV Operario vs Primavera AC 1-1 50% 62% -18.4 28% 29% -4.7 22% 21% 3.7
09.02.25 Sport Sinop MT vs Uniao Rondonopolis 0-0 21% 21% 0.2 29% 31% -5.5 50% 60% -17.3
15.02.25 Nova Mutum EC vs Primavera AC 1-4 40% 48% -16.6 32% 35% -9.3 28% 29% -3.2
15.02.25 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Cuiaba 2-2 19% 17% 9.0 27% 27% -0.8 54% 67% -19.2
16.02.25 Luverdense EC vs CEOV Operario 0-1 36% 41% -11.9 31% 33% -8.3 33% 38% -12.9
22.02.25 Academia FC MT vs Luverdense EC 0-1 20% 19% 4.0 27% 27% -0.8 53% 65% -18.3
22.02.25 Cuiaba vs Sport Sinop MT 5-0 78% 93% -15.5 15% 11% 27.1 7% 4% 65.8
22.02.25 Primavera AC vs Mixto MT 0-1 31% 36% -12.0 29% 31% -6.0 39% 45% -13.8
02.03.25 Uniao Rondonopolis vs CEOV Operario 0-1 40% 47% -14.8 31% 35% -9.6 29% 31% -7.5
06.03.25 CEOV Operario vs Uniao Rondonopolis 0-0 46% 56% -18.0 29% 31% -6.1 25% 26% -2.3
06.03.25 Primavera AC vs Nova Mutum EC 5-1 43% 51% -16.5 32% 36% -10.4 25% 26% -1.7
08.03.25 CEOV Operario vs Cuiaba 0-1 22% 22% -2.8 29% 30% -5.2 50% 60% -16.6
11.03.25 Primavera AC vs Mixto MT 1-1 29% 32% -9.5 32% 36% -9.9 39% 44% -13.1
15.03.25 Cuiaba vs CEOV Operario 2-0 62% 75% -17.8 24% 24% -0.2 14% 12% 15.3
15.03.25 Mixto MT vs Primavera AC 2-2 51% 61% -17.6 28% 30% -6.4 21% 21% 1.1
22.03.25 CEOV Operario vs Mixto MT 0-0 36% 42% -14.5 32% 35% -9.5 32% 35% -8.3
22.03.25 Primavera AC vs Cuiaba 1-2 21% 22% -1.8 28% 29% -3.0 51% 61% -17.0
29.03.25 Cuiaba vs Primavera AC 0-1 68% 83% -18.1 21% 19% 8.5 11% 8% 43.5
29.03.25 Mixto MT vs CEOV Operario 3-2 42% 50% -15.8 31% 34% -9.8 27% 29% -6.2
10.01.26 CEOV Operario vs Varzea Grande EC MT 2-0 57% 72% -20.1 24% 23% 4.8 19% 17% 12.2
10.01.26 Luverdense EC vs Cuiaba 1-0 30% 33% -11.1 31% 34% -8.6 39% 45% -13.3
10.01.26 Mixto MT vs Uniao Rondonopolis 0-1 52% 64% -17.9 28% 29% -4.6 20% 18% 8.2
10.01.26 Nova Mutum EC vs Sport Sinop MT 1-1 47% 56% -15.8 29% 31% -6.9 25% 26% -6.7
10.01.26 Primavera AC vs Chapada FC MT 0-0 54% 68% -20.5 27% 27% -1.4 19% 17% 15.6
14.01.26 Chapada FC MT vs Mixto MT 0-2 27% 29% -9.3 30% 32% -6.7 43% 50% -13.5
14.01.26 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Nova Mutum EC 3-0 44% 52% -15.6 31% 34% -9.2 25% 26% -2.5
14.01.26 Varzea Grande EC MT vs Luverdense EC 0-2 18% 17% 7.2 27% 27% -1.2 55% 68% -18.5
15.01.26 Cuiaba vs CEOV Operario 1-0 58% 71% -17.8 26% 26% -2.1 16% 14% 15.5
15.01.26 Sport Sinop MT vs Primavera AC 0-0 24% 25% -4.4 29% 31% -6.1 47% 56% -16.8
17.01.26 Chapada FC MT vs Varzea Grande EC MT 3-1 44% 51% -14.4 30% 33% -8.9 26% 28% -7.4
17.01.26 Uniao Rondonopolis vs Primavera AC 0-0 50% 62% -20.3 29% 30% -5.7 22% 20% 8.0
18.01.26 Mixto MT vs Cuiaba 0-0 27% 29% -8.6 31% 34% -9.0 42% 50% -15.5
18.01.26 Nova Mutum EC vs Luverdense EC 0-0 25% 27% -5.9 31% 34% -8.5 44% 52% -15.3
18.01.26 Sport Sinop MT vs CEOV Operario 0-1 22% 22% -1.7 28% 29% -4.1 50% 61% -17.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 134 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Cuiaba 1875.90
2 Luverdense EC 1757.45
3 Mixto MT 1701.26
4 Primavera AC 1622.75
5 CEOV Operario 1575.47
6 Uniao Rondonopolis 1526.61
7 Sport Sinop MT 1490.40
8 Chapada FC MT 1484.41
9 Nova Mutum EC 1468.79
10 Varzea Grande EC MT 1337.79

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Cuiaba 1765.32
2 Mixto MT 1620.06
3 Luverdense EC 1606.65
4 Uniao Rondonopolis 1527.32
5 Primavera AC 1491.16
6 CEOV Operario 1450.90
7 Nova Mutum EC 1429.52
8 Sport Sinop MT 1428.94
9 Chapada FC MT 1409.13
10 Varzea Grande EC MT 1316.18