ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 177
Avg Goals 2.42
Avg Home 1.29
Avg Away 1.12
Home Win % 36.7%
Draw % 28.2%
Away Win % 35.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 177
Avg Brier Score 0.6121
Pick Accuracy 47.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6160
Market Brier 0.6136
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 42
Value Bet Hit Rate 7.1%
ROI (flat stake) -39.3%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 33 of 177 matches had at least one · staked 42.00, profit -16.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 9 11.1% 9.00 0.00 0.0%
draw 9 11.1% 9.00 -2.25 -25.0%
away 24 4.2% 24.00 -14.25 -59.4%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.2% 0.0% 4
10–20% 16.5% 15.0% 60
20–30% 26.6% 28.0% 200
30–40% 33.2% 35.2% 128
40–50% 44.1% 32.9% 76
50–60% 54.9% 61.1% 36
60–70% 63.7% 71.4% 21
70–80% 73.1% 83.3% 6
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
24.01.24 Tombense FC vs Uberlandia EC 2-2 50% 58% -14.3 28% 29% -3.6 22% 22% -0.4
24.01.24 Villa Nova-MG vs Cruzeiro 1-2 18% 17% 4.5 25% 24% 4.0 57% 68% -16.7
25.01.24 America MG vs Pouso Alegre FC 6-0 57% 68% -16.2 25% 24% 1.8 18% 17% 6.7
25.01.24 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Ipatinga FC 2-1 57% 68% -16.5 25% 24% 2.6 18% 17% 8.9
25.01.24 CA Patrocinense vs Atletico-MG 2-1 13% 11% 17.7 22% 20% 10.0 65% 78% -16.2
25.01.24 Democrata GV vs Itabirito Futebol Clube 1-3 41% 48% -13.1 31% 33% -6.6 27% 29% -3.8
27.01.24 Cruzeiro vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 1-1 57% 68% -16.5 25% 25% 1.8 17% 15% 12.7
28.01.24 Atletico-MG vs Democrata GV 4-0 77% 91% -15.7 15% 11% 36.0 8% 5% 61.1
28.01.24 Itabirito Futebol Clube vs Villa Nova-MG 0-2 41% 45% -10.4 30% 32% -6.3 29% 32% -10.0
28.01.24 Pouso Alegre FC vs Tombense FC 1-2 31% 35% -11.8 29% 31% -4.5 40% 44% -10.7
29.01.24 Ipatinga FC vs America MG 1-6 21% 20% 6.2 28% 28% -0.6 51% 62% -17.1
30.01.24 Uberlandia EC vs CA Patrocinense 1-1 37% 42% -11.5 31% 33% -7.1 32% 35% -9.7
03.02.24 Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro 0-2 53% 62% -14.9 27% 27% -0.6 20% 19% 4.6
03.02.24 Ipatinga FC vs Pouso Alegre FC 1-0 42% 49% -13.7 30% 32% -5.7 27% 29% -3.9
03.02.24 Itabirito Futebol Clube vs America MG 0-0 19% 16% 19.2 25% 23% 7.0 56% 70% -19.6
03.02.24 Tombense FC vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 1-0 40% 47% -14.2 29% 30% -3.8 31% 33% -7.2
03.02.24 Uberlandia EC vs Democrata GV 0-1 43% 52% -16.1 29% 30% -3.7 27% 28% -1.5
07.02.24 America MG vs Uberlandia EC 2-0 63% 76% -16.6 22% 20% 8.8 15% 13% 12.9
08.02.24 Democrata GV vs Tombense FC 2-2 29% 31% -7.3 30% 32% -5.7 41% 47% -12.7
08.02.24 Pouso Alegre FC vs Itabirito Futebol Clube 2-0 31% 33% -7.1 30% 31% -4.7 39% 45% -13.7
09.02.24 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Atletico-MG 0-2 19% 19% 2.2 26% 26% 2.0 54% 64% -14.6
09.02.24 Cruzeiro vs CA Patrocinense 3-0 65% 78% -16.0 22% 20% 7.5 13% 11% 17.0
14.02.24 Pouso Alegre FC vs Democrata GV 1-0 40% 48% -15.7 30% 31% -4.7 30% 31% -3.7
15.02.24 Atletico-MG vs Tombense FC 1-1 66% 78% -15.4 21% 19% 9.2 14% 12% 12.4
15.02.24 Uberlandia EC vs Itabirito Futebol Clube 1-2 36% 41% -10.6 30% 32% -5.8 33% 37% -10.6
15.02.24 Villa Nova-MG vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 1-4 38% 44% -14.0 30% 31% -4.4 32% 34% -5.8
16.02.24 Cruzeiro vs America MG 0-2 47% 55% -13.9 29% 30% -4.4 24% 24% -2.7
17.02.24 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Pouso Alegre FC 4-1 49% 57% -14.9 29% 30% -4.4 22% 22% 0.8
17.02.24 Itabirito Futebol Clube vs Atletico-MG 0-2 13% 11% 23.5 22% 20% 10.7 65% 78% -17.0
18.02.24 America MG vs Villa Nova-MG 0-0 61% 72% -16.3 23% 22% 5.2 16% 14% 11.9
18.02.24 Democrata GV vs Cruzeiro 1-3 19% 19% 0.7 28% 29% -2.8 53% 62% -14.6
18.02.24 Ipatinga FC vs Uberlandia EC 0-1 40% 47% -14.2 31% 32% -5.4 30% 31% -3.9
18.02.24 Tombense FC vs CA Patrocinense 4-0 51% 60% -14.6 28% 29% -3.1 22% 22% -1.0
24.02.24 America MG vs Atletico-MG 1-1 25% 27% -4.8 29% 29% -2.7 46% 53% -14.1
24.02.24 Ipatinga FC vs Democrata GV 2-0 39% 45% -14.0 30% 31% -4.7 31% 33% -6.6
24.02.24 Uberlandia EC vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 2-1 27% 29% -6.5 29% 31% -4.3 43% 50% -13.9
24.02.24 Villa Nova-MG vs Tombense FC 0-3 32% 35% -10.0 30% 31% -4.5 39% 43% -11.3
25.02.24 Itabirito Futebol Clube vs CA Patrocinense 2-2 42% 48% -12.6 30% 32% -6.5 28% 31% -8.2
25.02.24 Pouso Alegre FC vs Cruzeiro 0-2 15% 13% 13.1 24% 22% 6.6 61% 73% -16.1
02.03.24 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Itabirito Futebol Clube 2-1 46% 53% -13.1 29% 30% -4.6 25% 27% -6.1
02.03.24 Atletico-MG vs Ipatinga FC 3-0 74% 85% -14.0 17% 15% 15.7 9% 7% 26.1
02.03.24 CA Patrocinense vs Pouso Alegre FC 0-1 47% 55% -15.3 29% 30% -4.0 24% 24% -0.2
02.03.24 Cruzeiro vs Uberlandia EC 2-0 72% 84% -14.7 18% 16% 14.5 10% 8% 29.9
02.03.24 Democrata GV vs Villa Nova-MG 2-1 35% 38% -10.1 30% 32% -5.6 35% 39% -10.8
02.03.24 Tombense FC vs America MG 0-1 31% 33% -7.1 30% 31% -3.9 39% 45% -13.2
09.03.24 Atletico-MG vs America MG 2-0 56% 66% -15.0 26% 26% 0.4 18% 17% 5.4
09.03.24 Uberlandia EC vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 2-2 32% 36% -11.2 30% 31% -4.5 38% 42% -10.2
10.03.24 Itabirito Futebol Clube vs Pouso Alegre FC 4-1 44% 51% -12.9 30% 31% -5.0 26% 28% -5.2
10.03.24 Tombense FC vs Cruzeiro 0-0 23% 22% 1.7 29% 29% -2.6 49% 58% -15.7
12.03.24 Ipatinga FC vs Democrata GV 4-3 38% 43% -11.7 30% 32% -6.2 31% 35% -10.1
16.03.24 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Uberlandia EC 0-0 49% 57% -15.0 28% 29% -2.3 24% 24% -1.2
16.03.24 Cruzeiro vs Tombense FC 3-1 61% 73% -16.1 24% 23% 2.7 15% 13% 12.7
16.03.24 Pouso Alegre FC vs Itabirito Futebol Clube 5-2 35% 38% -10.1 30% 32% -5.6 35% 39% -10.8
17.03.24 America MG vs Atletico-MG 2-1 26% 28% -5.1 30% 31% -4.5 44% 51% -13.3
19.03.24 Democrata GV vs CA Patrocinense 3-0 39% 45% -13.7 30% 31% -4.7 31% 33% -7.0
23.03.24 Pouso Alegre FC vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 1-3 31% 34% -9.1 30% 31% -4.0 39% 44% -12.0
29.03.24 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Pouso Alegre FC 3-0 53% 63% -16.1 26% 26% -0.0 21% 20% 2.9
30.03.24 Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro 2-2 49% 58% -15.6 27% 28% -1.1 24% 24% -0.3
18.01.25 Itabirito Futebol Clube vs Betim Futebol 0-1 41% 47% -11.4 31% 33% -7.6 28% 31% -9.0
18.01.25 Pouso Alegre FC vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 0-1 25% 26% -4.1 29% 31% -4.2 46% 53% -13.7
19.01.25 Democrata GV vs Villa Nova-MG 0-1 34% 37% -8.9 31% 34% -7.2 35% 39% -11.2
19.01.25 SC Aymores vs Atletico-MG 0-0 37% 43% -15.8 31% 32% -5.2 33% 33% -1.6
20.01.25 Cruzeiro vs Tombense FC 1-0 46% 53% -13.6 30% 31% -5.6 25% 26% -5.0
20.01.25 Uberlandia EC vs America MG 2-2 20% 19% 3.4 29% 29% -2.9 52% 61% -14.6
22.01.25 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Cruzeiro 1-0 27% 29% -4.1 29% 30% -3.7 43% 51% -15.3
22.01.25 Atletico-MG vs Democrata GV 1-1 45% 51% -12.1 29% 31% -6.0 26% 28% -8.0
22.01.25 Betim Futebol vs SC Aymores 2-0 42% 51% -16.1 30% 32% -5.5 27% 27% 0.5
22.01.25 Tombense FC vs Itabirito Futebol Clube 1-0 51% 60% -13.8 28% 29% -4.6 21% 21% -1.2
23.01.25 America MG vs Pouso Alegre FC 7-0 64% 76% -16.1 22% 21% 6.8 14% 12% 16.6
23.01.25 Villa Nova-MG vs Uberlandia EC 0-1 42% 48% -12.6 30% 32% -6.5 28% 31% -8.2
25.01.25 Cruzeiro vs Betim Futebol 1-1 68% 79% -14.9 20% 19% 7.1 12% 11% 14.6
26.01.25 America MG vs Villa Nova-MG 2-0 66% 79% -16.2 22% 20% 7.7 12% 10% 24.7
26.01.25 Democrata GV vs Tombense FC 0-1 29% 31% -6.3 31% 33% -7.0 40% 47% -13.7
26.01.25 Pouso Alegre FC vs Atletico-MG 0-0 28% 30% -6.8 29% 30% -4.0 43% 50% -14.6
26.01.25 SC Aymores vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 2-0 23% 23% -2.2 30% 31% -4.8 48% 55% -13.3
26.01.25 Uberlandia EC vs Itabirito Futebol Clube 1-1 40% 45% -12.9 30% 32% -5.8 30% 32% -7.0
29.01.25 SC Aymores vs Uberlandia EC 1-1 44% 52% -15.8 30% 31% -4.6 27% 27% -0.3
29.01.25 Tombense FC vs Pouso Alegre FC 1-1 55% 66% -15.8 26% 26% -0.6 18% 17% 6.0
30.01.25 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Villa Nova-MG 6-1 55% 64% -13.7 27% 28% -3.7 18% 18% 0.4
30.01.25 Atletico-MG vs America MG 1-1 43% 52% -16.6 30% 31% -4.0 27% 27% 0.7
30.01.25 Betim Futebol vs Democrata GV 1-1 43% 50% -14.7 30% 32% -5.9 27% 28% -2.9
30.01.25 Itabirito Futebol Clube vs Cruzeiro 1-4 15% 12% 19.0 23% 22% 8.0 62% 75% -17.4
01.02.25 Athletic Club SJdR/MG vs Tombense FC 3-1 51% 61% -15.3 27% 28% -1.5 21% 21% 2.2
01.02.25 Betim Futebol vs America MG 0-1 19% 19% 0.9 26% 26% 0.1 54% 65% -15.6
01.02.25 Villa Nova-MG vs Atletico-MG 0-1 15% 12% 22.3 24% 22% 7.6 61% 74% -17.9
02.02.25 Cruzeiro vs Uberlandia EC 3-1 69% 82% -15.4 20% 18% 8.9 11% 9% 24.4
02.02.25 Democrata GV vs Pouso Alegre FC 2-4 44% 51% -14.5 29% 31% -4.4 27% 28% -3.7
02.02.25 Itabirito Futebol Clube vs SC Aymores 0-0 40% 47% -13.5 30% 32% -5.8 29% 31% -6.0
05.02.25 Atletico-MG vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 1-0 55% 66% -17.1 27% 27% -0.6 18% 16% 13.8
05.02.25 Tombense FC vs SC Aymores 1-0 49% 58% -15.7 29% 30% -4.7 22% 22% 1.6
06.02.25 America MG vs Cruzeiro 1-1 28% 29% -4.0 30% 31% -4.3 42% 49% -14.2
06.02.25 Pouso Alegre FC vs Betim Futebol 0-2 33% 35% -6.7 30% 32% -5.7 37% 43% -13.4
06.02.25 Villa Nova-MG vs Itabirito Futebol Clube 1-4 38% 42% -9.9 30% 32% -5.7 32% 35% -10.1
07.02.25 Uberlandia EC vs Democrata GV 0-1 42% 50% -15.0 30% 31% -4.7 28% 29% -2.9
08.02.25 Betim Futebol vs Villa Nova-MG 1-1 54% 64% -15.5 27% 27% -0.7 19% 18% 6.5
08.02.25 Itabirito Futebol Clube vs Pouso Alegre FC 1-0 48% 58% -16.3 28% 29% -3.5 23% 23% 0.7
08.02.25 Tombense FC vs America MG 1-0 29% 31% -7.1 31% 32% -5.4 41% 47% -12.0
09.02.25 Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG 0-2 42% 48% -12.3 30% 32% -6.3 28% 30% -7.6
09.02.25 SC Aymores vs Democrata GV 0-1 43% 51% -15.1 30% 32% -6.2 27% 28% -3.4
09.02.25 Uberlandia EC vs Athletic Club SJdR/MG 3-0 22% 23% -2.5 28% 29% -3.4 49% 58% -15.0
Showing the 100 most recent of 177 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Cruzeiro 1999.16
2 Atletico-MG 1917.03
3 Uberlandia EC 1792.42
4 Athletic Club SJdR/MG 1763.93
5 Tombense FC 1736.14
6 Betim Futebol 1712.62
7 North Esporte Clube 1692.51
8 Democrata GV 1690.30
9 Pouso Alegre FC 1689.27
10 America MG 1682.61
11 URT 1648.09
12 Itabirito Futebol Clube 1562.67

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Cruzeiro 1923.98
2 Atletico-MG 1827.87
3 North Esporte Clube 1701.72
4 Uberlandia EC 1686.46
5 Athletic Club SJdR/MG 1663.37
6 Tombense FC 1662.38
7 Democrata GV 1631.47
8 America MG 1596.88
9 Itabirito Futebol Clube 1571.96
10 Pouso Alegre FC 1569.33
11 Betim Futebol 1556.56
12 URT 1538.08