ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 137
Avg Goals 1.93
Avg Home 1.13
Avg Away 0.80
Home Win % 40.9%
Draw % 38.7%
Away Win % 20.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 137
Avg Brier Score 0.6403
Pick Accuracy 41.6%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6395
Market Brier 0.6496
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 100.0%
ROI (flat stake) 312.5%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'draw' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 137 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit 6.25 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 2 100.0% 2.00 6.25 312.5%
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 15.7% 15.0% 40
20–30% 24.7% 24.5% 98
30–40% 35.3% 34.5% 194
40–50% 44.3% 53.8% 52
50–60% 53.7% 40.0% 20
60–70% 61.5% 57.1% 7
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
03.08.23 SC Aymores vs Boa MG 4-0 33% 37% -10.4 35% 33% 6.0 31% 43% -26.0
05.08.23 URT vs Boa MG 0-2 53% 57% -6.9 31% 30% 0.7 16% 24% -33.1
06.08.23 Uberlandia EC vs SC Aymores 5-1 60% 65% -7.1 28% 28% -1.0 13% 19% -34.0
12.08.23 Boa MG vs Itabirito Futebol Clube 0-2 24% 28% -13.7 33% 30% 8.0 43% 55% -20.8
04.05.24 SC Aymores vs Nacional AC Muriae 1-1 51% 56% -9.3 32% 31% 2.8 17% 26% -32.0
04.05.24 Valeriodoce EC MG vs Democrata FC 1-1 34% 35% -3.8 34% 31% 9.1 33% 47% -29.7
04.05.24 Varginha Esporte Clube vs EC Mamore 0-1 35% 33% 6.3 32% 30% 6.0 32% 49% -33.6
11.05.24 Democrata FC vs Tupi FC 4-0 60% 65% -6.7 26% 27% -1.4 14% 21% -35.1
11.05.24 Nacional AC Muriae vs Valeriodoce EC MG 4-4 39% 43% -10.3 36% 34% 3.7 25% 35% -27.6
12.05.24 EC Mamore vs North Esporte Clube 1-0 45% 51% -10.7 35% 34% 1.9 20% 28% -28.9
15.05.24 Valeriodoce EC MG vs Betim Futebol 0-0 39% 47% -16.0 35% 32% 8.0 26% 33% -21.7
16.05.24 AA Caldense vs Boa MG 0-0 48% 50% -4.8 31% 30% 2.4 21% 32% -33.7
16.05.24 Nacional AC Muriae vs Democrata FC 1-1 30% 36% -15.8 32% 29% 12.8 38% 48% -20.9
16.05.24 SC Aymores vs Tupi FC 2-0 54% 58% -6.5 30% 31% -1.5 15% 23% -33.7
16.05.24 URT vs EC Mamore 1-0 50% 53% -4.2 32% 32% -1.8 18% 27% -33.7
18.05.24 SC Aymores vs Democrata FC 0-0 29% 33% -13.7 35% 33% 5.3 36% 47% -22.3
21.05.24 EC Mamore vs AA Caldense 0-0 48% 52% -7.5 33% 32% 2.3 19% 28% -31.4
25.05.24 AA Caldense vs Varginha Esporte Clube 1-0 45% 48% -5.6 34% 33% 1.3 21% 31% -31.8
25.05.24 Democrata FC vs Betim Futebol 1-1 50% 52% -4.3 33% 34% -3.1 18% 26% -33.4
26.05.24 Valeriodoce EC MG vs SC Aymores 1-1 38% 42% -8.9 35% 34% 4.5 27% 37% -28.2
01.06.24 Betim Futebol vs Democrata FC 1-0 33% 38% -13.5 36% 34% 4.9 31% 40% -22.0
01.06.24 SC Aymores vs Valeriodoce EC MG 1-0 48% 52% -7.4 34% 34% -1.2 18% 26% -31.8
01.06.24 Varginha Esporte Clube vs AA Caldense 0-0 37% 40% -7.5 38% 38% 0.2 25% 35% -27.7
02.06.24 EC Mamore vs Boa MG 1-2 46% 49% -5.2 33% 33% -0.5 21% 31% -33.1
05.06.24 Valeriodoce EC MG vs Tupi FC 0-0 50% 53% -6.5 32% 32% 0.1 18% 26% -32.6
06.06.24 Boa MG vs North Esporte Clube 0-1 31% 34% -10.5 37% 36% 3.4 32% 42% -23.7
06.06.24 Democrata FC vs SC Aymores 1-0 50% 53% -4.8 33% 34% -3.3 17% 26% -33.4
07.06.24 AA Caldense vs EC Mamore 1-1 40% 44% -10.8 36% 34% 4.8 25% 34% -26.8
08.06.24 Betim Futebol vs Valeriodoce EC MG 1-1 49% 53% -8.3 34% 34% -0.9 17% 24% -31.1
09.06.24 Boa MG vs AA Caldense 1-1 37% 42% -10.6 37% 36% 2.2 26% 34% -25.9
09.06.24 Democrata FC vs Nacional AC Muriae 0-0 51% 54% -6.5 32% 32% -1.1 18% 26% -33.4
11.06.24 EC Mamore vs URT 0-0 32% 39% -17.6 38% 38% 0.6 30% 35% -15.3
11.06.24 Tupi FC vs SC Aymores 2-1 28% 32% -12.2 37% 36% 2.3 34% 43% -20.7
15.06.24 Tupi FC vs Democrata FC 1-1 27% 31% -13.5 35% 34% 4.3 38% 48% -21.0
15.06.24 Varginha Esporte Clube vs Boa MG 1-1 36% 35% 1.9 36% 36% 0.0 29% 42% -32.4
16.06.24 SC Aymores vs Betim Futebol 1-0 37% 41% -9.0 37% 36% 2.3 26% 35% -26.4
16.06.24 URT vs AA Caldense 3-2 45% 49% -7.2 36% 36% -1.0 19% 27% -29.8
16.06.24 Valeriodoce EC MG vs Nacional AC Muriae 2-0 38% 42% -9.6 37% 36% 1.9 25% 34% -26.8
22.06.24 AA Caldense vs North Esporte Clube 1-0 51% 56% -9.1 32% 32% 0.5 16% 24% -31.8
22.06.24 Democrata FC vs Valeriodoce EC MG 0-1 48% 52% -7.8 33% 32% 2.5 19% 28% -31.1
22.06.24 EC Mamore vs Varginha Esporte Clube 3-2 42% 42% 0.2 34% 35% -2.4 24% 36% -34.0
22.06.24 Nacional AC Muriae vs SC Aymores 3-1 40% 42% -5.6 37% 37% -0.6 23% 33% -30.0
29.06.24 Betim Futebol vs Valeriodoce EC MG 3-1 44% 48% -7.4 34% 34% 1.5 22% 31% -31.1
02.07.24 EC Mamore vs SC Aymores 1-1 46% 48% -3.6 34% 35% -2.7 20% 30% -33.4
06.07.24 SC Aymores vs North Esporte Clube 3-1 40% 45% -11.8 35% 33% 5.4 25% 34% -26.8
07.07.24 Valeriodoce EC MG vs URT 1-3 34% 42% -17.4 35% 32% 7.4 31% 38% -19.6
13.07.24 SC Aymores vs EC Mamore 2-0 44% 49% -10.1 35% 35% 1.5 21% 29% -29.3
14.07.24 Valeriodoce EC MG vs Betim Futebol 2-1 31% 34% -7.1 36% 35% 4.5 32% 43% -26.2
20.07.24 URT vs Valeriodoce EC MG 1-1 57% 62% -8.3 29% 29% 1.8 14% 21% -32.9
25.07.24 EC Mamore vs North Esporte Clube 0-0 12% 14% -12.1 24% 21% 14.0 64% 76% -15.7
01.08.24 Betim Futebol vs SC Aymores 2-0 43% 47% -6.6 34% 33% 2.7 22% 32% -30.8
03.05.25 Democrata FC vs Ipatinga FC 2-0 41% 42% -2.7 35% 35% -0.1 24% 36% -32.4
03.05.25 Nacional AC Muriae vs Valeriodoce EC MG 1-2 38% 40% -5.6 36% 36% 2.0 26% 36% -29.1
04.05.25 AA Caldense vs CA Patrocinense 0-0 63% 66% -4.8 26% 28% -7.4 11% 17% -35.5
06.05.25 Guarani EC Divinopolis MG vs North Esporte Clube 0-2 35% 37% -5.8 37% 36% 1.8 28% 39% -28.3
10.05.25 Ipatinga FC vs Guarani EC Divinopolis MG 0-2 37% 43% -14.5 35% 32% 8.0 28% 36% -23.0
10.05.25 Uberaba SC MG vs Varginha Esporte Clube 0-0 55% 57% -3.9 30% 31% -5.2 15% 24% -35.0
11.05.25 Valeriodoce EC MG vs Democrata FC 1-2 47% 53% -10.2 33% 31% 4.1 20% 29% -31.4
15.05.25 Nacional AC Muriae vs Democrata FC 1-0 38% 42% -8.4 35% 34% 3.8 27% 38% -29.4
15.05.25 Uberaba SC MG vs URT 2-2 26% 28% -8.2 34% 31% 8.8 41% 53% -23.8
16.05.25 Varginha Esporte Clube vs CA Patrocinense 0-1 39% 36% 7.8 36% 38% -4.6 25% 38% -33.7
18.05.25 AA Caldense vs Varginha Esporte Clube 2-0 62% 65% -3.7 26% 29% -8.6 12% 18% -35.5
20.05.25 CA Patrocinense vs Uberaba SC MG 2-0 41% 48% -13.7 34% 31% 8.9 25% 33% -25.4
20.05.25 Democrata FC vs Guarani EC Divinopolis MG 1-1 40% 48% -15.9 35% 32% 7.9 25% 32% -22.1
20.05.25 EC Mamore vs URT 1-1 33% 38% -13.2 36% 35% 3.9 30% 39% -23.1
20.05.25 Nacional AC Muriae vs Ipatinga FC 1-1 47% 51% -7.3 33% 32% 2.5 20% 29% -31.6
24.05.25 Ipatinga FC vs Valeriodoce EC MG 1-0 40% 45% -11.7 36% 35% 3.6 24% 32% -26.2
24.05.25 Uberaba SC MG vs AA Caldense 3-1 29% 39% -25.2 35% 36% -2.5 36% 38% -6.8
24.05.25 Varginha Esporte Clube vs EC Mamore 1-3 22% 23% -4.0 34% 32% 6.8 43% 57% -24.1
25.05.25 Guarani EC Divinopolis MG vs Nacional AC Muriae 2-0 43% 48% -10.3 35% 34% 3.3 22% 31% -28.8
31.05.25 Democrata FC vs North Esporte Clube 1-1 40% 49% -17.8 36% 34% 5.3 24% 30% -20.1
31.05.25 Nacional AC Muriae vs Guarani EC Divinopolis MG 2-1 38% 41% -8.0 37% 36% 2.5 26% 36% -27.7
01.06.25 AA Caldense vs Uberaba SC MG 0-0 45% 48% -5.6 35% 36% -1.8 20% 29% -32.0
01.06.25 CA Patrocinense vs URT 2-1 29% 36% -18.5 36% 36% 1.5 35% 41% -15.2
01.06.25 Valeriodoce EC MG vs Ipatinga FC 2-3 41% 44% -7.8 36% 36% 1.3 23% 32% -29.1
03.06.25 EC Mamore vs Varginha Esporte Clube 1-1 61% 64% -4.6 26% 29% -7.5 13% 20% -36.0
07.06.25 Ipatinga FC vs Nacional AC Muriae 0-0 50% 54% -8.3 32% 31% 3.4 18% 26% -31.1
07.06.25 North Esporte Clube vs Valeriodoce EC MG 0-0 53% 56% -6.9 31% 31% -0.5 16% 24% -33.2
07.06.25 Uberaba SC MG vs CA Patrocinense 0-1 45% 48% -4.6 34% 34% -1.1 20% 30% -32.5
07.06.25 URT vs EC Mamore 1-0 44% 50% -11.6 35% 34% 3.5 21% 29% -27.6
08.06.25 Varginha Esporte Clube vs AA Caldense 1-1 30% 35% -14.5 37% 37% 1.2 33% 41% -19.8
10.06.25 Guarani EC Divinopolis MG vs Democrata FC 0-0 42% 49% -13.7 36% 34% 4.0 22% 29% -25.0
14.06.25 Democrata FC vs Valeriodoce EC MG 0-1 40% 42% -6.4 36% 36% 1.4 24% 34% -29.6
15.06.25 AA Caldense vs URT 0-1 35% 41% -13.2 38% 38% 0.9 27% 34% -23.1
15.06.25 Varginha Esporte Clube vs Uberaba SC MG 2-2 40% 45% -12.4 37% 36% 2.9 23% 31% -25.0
17.06.25 EC Mamore vs CA Patrocinense 0-1 53% 56% -4.6 31% 33% -5.7 16% 24% -34.6
17.06.25 Guarani EC Divinopolis MG vs Ipatinga FC 1-0 38% 43% -10.1 36% 34% 5.0 26% 36% -26.8
21.06.25 CA Patrocinense vs AA Caldense 0-2 36% 40% -9.1 37% 37% 1.2 26% 36% -26.8
21.06.25 Ipatinga FC vs Democrata FC 1-0 39% 43% -8.4 36% 34% 3.8 25% 35% -28.1
21.06.25 Uberaba SC MG vs EC Mamore 3-0 43% 51% -14.4 35% 33% 5.6 22% 29% -24.5
21.06.25 Valeriodoce EC MG vs Nacional AC Muriae 2-2 60% 65% -8.3 28% 29% -0.5 12% 17% -33.1
28.06.25 North Esporte Clube vs Democrata FC 0-0 47% 52% -9.3 34% 33% 2.3 19% 27% -30.0
29.06.25 EC Mamore vs URT 0-1 31% 35% -12.7 37% 36% 2.5 32% 41% -21.4
03.07.25 CA Patrocinense vs North Esporte Clube 0-1 29% 34% -16.1 37% 37% 0.8 34% 41% -17.4
03.07.25 Ipatinga FC vs EC Mamore 1-0 49% 53% -7.5 33% 32% 1.6 18% 26% -31.5
05.07.25 Democrata FC vs CA Patrocinense 1-0 56% 60% -6.1 30% 31% -3.1 14% 21% -33.6
12.07.25 Democrata FC vs North Esporte Clube 0-0 38% 42% -10.6 37% 36% 2.2 25% 34% -25.8
12.07.25 URT vs EC Mamore 1-0 61% 66% -8.0 28% 29% -3.2 11% 17% -33.8
19.07.25 EC Mamore vs Ipatinga FC 0-0 26% 29% -12.5 37% 37% 0.9 37% 45% -18.9
19.07.25 North Esporte Clube vs CA Patrocinense 2-1 59% 65% -7.8 27% 28% -1.2 13% 20% -34.6
Showing the 100 most recent of 137 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

13 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 SC Aymores 1635.68
2 Valeriodoce EC MG 1608.84
3 Boa MG 1601.96
4 Democrata FC 1592.05
5 Coimbra EC 1581.24
6 Ipatinga FC 1576.53
7 Villa Nova-MG 1557.27
8 Uberaba SC MG 1552.49
9 Guarani EC Divinopolis MG 1536.88
10 Uberaba 1518.99
11 CA Patrocinense 1498.82
12 EC Mamore 1481.71
13 AA Caldense 1452.82

Away Ratings

13 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 SC Aymores 1550.83
2 Valeriodoce EC MG 1541.59
3 Uberaba SC MG 1532.10
4 Coimbra EC 1530.16
5 Democrata FC 1501.59
6 Boa MG 1499.42
7 Villa Nova-MG 1499.12
8 Uberaba 1477.02
9 Guarani EC Divinopolis MG 1453.57
10 Ipatinga FC 1447.83
11 AA Caldense 1434.28
12 CA Patrocinense 1426.45
13 EC Mamore 1403.45