ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 141
Avg Goals 2.42
Avg Home 1.43
Avg Away 0.99
Home Win % 43.3%
Draw % 24.8%
Away Win % 31.9%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 141
Avg Brier Score 0.5999
Pick Accuracy 50.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6081
Market Brier 0.6018
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 35
Value Bet Hit Rate 11.4%
ROI (flat stake) -15.7%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 82.9% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 33 of 141 matches had at least one · staked 35.00, profit -5.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 4 50.0% 4.00 11.25 281.2%
draw 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
away 29 6.9% 29.00 -14.75 -50.9%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.8% 0.0% 6
10–20% 16.4% 18.0% 61
20–30% 26.1% 27.4% 164
30–40% 33.8% 30.0% 80
40–50% 45.1% 47.8% 46
50–60% 54.5% 47.1% 34
60–70% 63.4% 66.7% 24
70–80% 72.9% 83.3% 6
80–90% 83.8% 100.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
17.01.24 Treze FC vs Serra Branca Esporte Clube 0-2 39% 44% -13.0 28% 31% -9.2 33% 37% -11.0
19.01.24 Botafogo FC PB vs Sao Paulo Crystal 5-1 76% 93% -17.6 14% 11% 30.1 9% 5% 94.9
20.01.24 Pombal EC PB vs Campinense Clube 2-1 27% 27% 1.4 30% 33% -10.5 43% 52% -17.5
21.01.24 Atletico Cajazeirense vs CS Paraibano PB 0-0 46% 56% -18.4 28% 31% -8.8 25% 24% 4.0
21.01.24 Nacional de Patos vs Sousa EC 1-0 30% 34% -10.5 32% 36% -12.2 38% 42% -9.4
27.01.24 Nacional de Patos vs Treze FC 2-1 35% 38% -7.0 31% 35% -12.4 34% 40% -14.0
27.01.24 Pombal EC PB vs Atletico Cajazeirense 0-1 38% 41% -6.8 30% 35% -13.1 31% 36% -13.5
28.01.24 Botafogo FC PB vs CS Paraibano PB 2-1 63% 76% -17.1 22% 22% -1.4 15% 13% 18.6
28.01.24 Sao Paulo Crystal vs Campinense Clube 0-2 16% 13% 19.9 23% 22% 4.3 61% 75% -19.1
28.01.24 Sousa EC vs Serra Branca Esporte Clube 1-0 42% 48% -11.5 28% 31% -9.9 30% 33% -10.9
31.01.24 Treze FC vs Atletico Cajazeirense 2-0 56% 66% -15.3 25% 27% -7.0 19% 19% 2.3
01.02.24 Campinense Clube vs Botafogo FC PB 0-0 32% 34% -5.9 30% 33% -10.7 38% 44% -14.9
01.02.24 Sao Paulo Crystal vs Nacional de Patos 0-1 19% 17% 7.8 25% 25% -0.8 56% 69% -18.7
02.02.24 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Pombal EC PB 3-2 60% 71% -15.4 24% 26% -7.7 16% 15% 6.3
06.02.24 CS Paraibano PB vs Sousa EC 1-0 24% 25% -4.0 27% 29% -5.4 49% 58% -16.2
08.02.24 Nacional de Patos vs Atletico Cajazeirense 1-2 60% 71% -15.6 24% 26% -7.6 16% 15% 8.3
08.02.24 Pombal EC PB vs Sao Paulo Crystal 0-1 58% 72% -18.9 24% 25% -3.1 17% 14% 22.2
09.02.24 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Campinense Clube 1-1 38% 42% -9.5 30% 33% -11.5 32% 37% -12.8
15.02.24 CS Paraibano PB vs Pombal EC PB 1-2 47% 57% -17.4 28% 30% -8.6 25% 25% 0.3
17.02.24 Sousa EC vs Campinense Clube 3-0 44% 51% -12.0 29% 33% -12.2 26% 29% -8.0
18.02.24 Atletico Cajazeirense vs Serra Branca Esporte Clube 0-1 27% 30% -11.9 30% 33% -10.9 44% 50% -12.8
18.02.24 Treze FC vs Sao Paulo Crystal 3-1 68% 81% -16.4 20% 20% -0.8 12% 10% 27.5
19.02.24 Botafogo FC PB vs Nacional de Patos 2-0 54% 64% -15.0 26% 29% -9.4 20% 20% -0.1
22.02.24 Sao Paulo Crystal vs Atletico Cajazeirense 1-1 19% 17% 8.3 27% 29% -5.3 54% 66% -17.8
24.02.24 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Nacional de Patos 1-1 45% 53% -15.1 29% 32% -10.7 27% 28% -4.6
25.02.24 Campinense Clube vs CS Paraibano PB 0-1 48% 55% -12.8 28% 31% -10.9 24% 26% -6.9
25.02.24 Pombal EC PB vs Botafogo FC PB 2-3 21% 23% -6.9 27% 29% -7.1 52% 61% -15.0
25.02.24 Sousa EC vs Treze FC 0-2 47% 55% -15.2 28% 31% -9.5 25% 26% -1.9
01.03.24 Campinense Clube vs Nacional de Patos 1-0 39% 44% -11.8 30% 34% -12.1 31% 35% -11.0
02.03.24 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Botafogo FC PB 0-1 32% 36% -12.1 30% 33% -10.7 38% 43% -12.0
03.03.24 Atletico Cajazeirense vs Sousa EC 1-2 27% 29% -7.9 30% 34% -11.2 43% 50% -14.5
03.03.24 Treze FC vs Pombal EC PB 3-0 56% 67% -16.5 25% 27% -6.1 19% 17% 11.4
05.03.24 CS Paraibano PB vs Serra Branca Esporte Clube 0-2 26% 28% -7.1 29% 31% -7.9 45% 53% -13.7
09.03.24 CS Paraibano PB vs Treze FC 1-2 22% 21% 2.6 28% 29% -5.8 51% 61% -16.4
10.03.24 Botafogo FC PB vs Sousa EC 0-0 49% 57% -15.0 28% 31% -9.7 23% 23% 0.6
10.03.24 Campinense Clube vs Atletico Cajazeirense 1-0 61% 73% -16.4 23% 24% -4.4 16% 13% 17.2
10.03.24 Nacional de Patos vs Pombal EC PB 0-1 54% 66% -17.7 26% 28% -7.2 20% 18% 8.5
13.03.24 Sousa EC vs Sao Paulo Crystal 4-0 86% 96% -11.1 10% 9% 14.3 5% 2% 86.1
14.03.24 Botafogo FC PB vs Treze FC 0-2 44% 51% -12.1 29% 33% -12.2 26% 29% -7.8
16.03.24 Atletico Cajazeirense vs Botafogo FC PB 3-0 18% 17% 3.5 27% 29% -5.6 55% 66% -16.3
16.03.24 Nacional de Patos vs CS Paraibano PB 1-2 52% 61% -14.9 27% 29% -9.1 22% 22% -0.3
16.03.24 Sousa EC vs Pombal EC PB 1-1 63% 76% -17.8 22% 22% -1.0 15% 12% 22.1
16.03.24 Treze FC vs Campinense Clube 3-0 46% 55% -15.5 30% 33% -11.5 24% 24% -0.3
11.01.25 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Campinense Clube 1-0 38% 44% -13.6 30% 34% -11.4 32% 34% -8.4
12.01.25 Botafogo FC PB vs Nacional de Patos 4-2 55% 65% -15.5 26% 28% -7.5 20% 19% 4.0
12.01.25 Pombal EC PB vs EC de Patos 0-3 30% 32% -7.7 29% 32% -9.9 41% 49% -15.6
12.01.25 Treze FC vs Auto Esporte 1-1 63% 70% -10.0 22% 25% -12.6 15% 17% -8.6
14.01.25 AD Picuiense PB vs Sousa EC 0-2 13% 8% 58.5 22% 20% 9.3 65% 82% -20.1
16.01.25 Botafogo FC PB vs EC de Patos 3-0 66% 79% -16.2 21% 21% -1.1 13% 10% 25.8
16.01.25 Nacional de Patos vs Pombal EC PB 2-1 59% 70% -16.3 24% 25% -5.2 17% 16% 8.8
17.01.25 Sousa EC vs Serra Branca Esporte Clube 2-0 45% 53% -15.4 29% 32% -10.5 26% 27% -3.0
18.01.25 Auto Esporte vs Botafogo FC PB 0-1 18% 17% 5.1 26% 28% -5.1 56% 68% -17.5
19.01.25 Campinense Clube vs Treze FC 2-0 30% 32% -7.8 31% 35% -11.6 39% 45% -13.2
19.01.25 EC de Patos vs Sousa EC 1-3 21% 21% 1.2 27% 29% -5.5 52% 62% -17.3
21.01.25 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Pombal EC PB 2-1 67% 81% -16.9 20% 19% 2.7 13% 11% 23.9
23.01.25 Auto Esporte vs Campinense Clube 1-1 24% 24% -1.3 29% 32% -9.1 47% 56% -16.1
23.01.25 Nacional de Patos vs AD Picuiense PB 2-2 73% 83% -12.9 18% 19% -6.0 10% 8% 18.8
25.01.25 Pombal EC PB vs Botafogo FC PB 1-0 13% 12% 14.0 26% 27% -4.2 61% 72% -15.6
25.01.25 Treze FC vs Serra Branca Esporte Clube 1-0 44% 51% -13.4 29% 32% -10.6 27% 29% -6.8
26.01.25 Auto Esporte vs Sousa EC 0-0 20% 20% 2.2 31% 35% -11.2 48% 56% -14.4
26.01.25 Campinense Clube vs AD Picuiense PB 6-0 76% 88% -12.8 16% 17% -3.3 7% 5% 41.0
26.01.25 EC de Patos vs Nacional de Patos 2-2 26% 27% -4.4 28% 30% -7.4 46% 55% -16.1
29.01.25 AD Picuiense PB vs Pombal EC PB 0-1 21% 20% 5.5 24% 23% 2.8 55% 68% -18.9
30.01.25 Botafogo FC PB vs Serra Branca Esporte Clube 1-1 52% 62% -16.6 27% 29% -8.1 21% 20% 6.0
30.01.25 Sousa EC vs Campinense Clube 2-0 46% 55% -16.4 30% 33% -11.4 25% 24% 0.7
31.01.25 Treze FC vs EC de Patos 3-0 68% 80% -14.5 20% 20% -2.4 12% 10% 18.0
01.02.25 Campinense Clube vs Nacional de Patos 2-1 61% 76% -19.2 23% 23% -0.1 16% 12% 28.6
01.02.25 Sousa EC vs Pombal EC PB 1-0 66% 78% -14.4 21% 22% -5.8 13% 11% 14.2
02.02.25 Auto Esporte vs EC de Patos 2-3 44% 51% -13.9 28% 31% -9.4 28% 30% -7.8
02.02.25 Treze FC vs Botafogo FC PB 2-1 37% 42% -12.5 31% 36% -12.4 32% 34% -7.7
03.02.25 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs AD Picuiense PB 8-0 82% 93% -11.4 12% 11% 2.4 6% 5% 24.6
08.02.25 Pombal EC PB vs Treze FC 1-1 19% 19% 0.4 26% 28% -4.9 54% 65% -16.7
08.02.25 Sousa EC vs Nacional de Patos 3-0 61% 76% -18.9 23% 24% -2.1 15% 11% 33.1
09.02.25 Botafogo FC PB vs Campinense Clube 4-1 43% 51% -15.4 30% 34% -11.3 27% 27% -1.6
09.02.25 EC de Patos vs Serra Branca Esporte Clube 0-2 24% 26% -6.8 28% 29% -6.5 49% 57% -15.0
13.02.25 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Nacional de Patos 2-2 61% 76% -19.2 22% 22% 1.2 17% 14% 21.5
14.02.25 Pombal EC PB vs Auto Esporte 1-1 40% 47% -14.6 30% 33% -11.2 31% 33% -7.9
15.02.25 EC de Patos vs Campinense Clube 0-1 27% 30% -12.0 29% 31% -8.0 45% 50% -10.8
16.02.25 Nacional de Patos vs Auto Esporte 3-1 41% 48% -13.9 28% 31% -9.1 31% 33% -8.2
16.02.25 Treze FC vs Sousa EC 0-0 38% 44% -13.8 29% 32% -9.8 33% 36% -8.8
22.02.25 Campinense Clube vs Pombal EC PB 1-1 59% 69% -15.7 25% 26% -6.9 17% 15% 10.2
22.02.25 Nacional de Patos vs Treze FC 1-4 25% 26% -6.0 28% 30% -7.3 47% 56% -15.1
22.02.25 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Auto Esporte 5-1 71% 85% -16.7 17% 16% 8.7 11% 8% 36.7
22.02.25 Sousa EC vs Botafogo FC PB 1-2 28% 29% -3.5 32% 37% -12.9 40% 47% -13.6
08.03.25 Treze FC vs Botafogo FC PB 1-2 37% 42% -11.9 32% 37% -13.6 31% 34% -7.8
09.03.25 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Sousa EC 1-1 39% 44% -12.5 31% 36% -12.7 30% 32% -7.2
15.03.25 Botafogo FC PB vs Treze FC 0-0 47% 56% -16.2 29% 32% -10.8 24% 24% 0.4
16.03.25 Sousa EC vs Serra Branca Esporte Clube 1-1 47% 56% -16.3 29% 32% -10.5 24% 24% 1.1
23.03.25 Sousa EC vs Botafogo FC PB 1-0 31% 34% -8.4 32% 36% -12.7 37% 42% -11.8
30.03.25 Botafogo FC PB vs Sousa EC 1-1 53% 63% -16.0 27% 30% -9.8 20% 18% 7.3
17.01.26 Campinense Clube vs Atletico Cajazeirense 2-0 57% 68% -16.7 25% 27% -7.8 18% 17% 5.9
17.01.26 Sousa EC vs Confianca EC Sape PB 3-0 60% 74% -18.6 23% 23% 0.1 17% 14% 22.6
18.01.26 Botafogo FC PB vs EC de Patos 1-1 66% 78% -15.7 21% 22% -3.2 13% 11% 20.8
18.01.26 Nacional de Patos vs Pombal EC PB 3-0 42% 50% -15.1 29% 32% -10.2 29% 30% -5.7
18.01.26 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Treze FC 0-2 40% 48% -15.8 31% 35% -11.7 29% 29% -1.6
21.01.26 Atletico Cajazeirense vs EC de Patos 1-0 39% 45% -14.2 28% 31% -9.3 33% 36% -10.2
21.01.26 Confianca EC Sape PB vs Botafogo FC PB 0-1 16% 15% 7.9 23% 23% 2.3 61% 74% -18.0
22.01.26 Campinense Clube vs Nacional de Patos 1-2 53% 63% -15.8 27% 29% -9.1 20% 19% 4.8
22.01.26 Pombal EC PB vs Treze FC 1-2 21% 21% -0.6 28% 31% -7.8 51% 60% -15.8
22.01.26 Serra Branca Esporte Clube vs Sousa EC 2-1 34% 38% -11.6 32% 36% -13.2 34% 38% -10.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 141 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

10 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Botafogo FC PB 1787.51
2 Treze FC 1737.64
3 Serra Branca Esporte Clube 1704.01
4 Sousa EC 1701.82
5 Campinense Clube 1701.01
6 Nacional de Patos 1566.43
7 Atletico Cajazeirense 1489.14
8 EC de Patos 1423.92
9 Pombal EC PB 1411.42
10 Confianca EC Sape PB 1258.71

Away Ratings

10 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Botafogo FC PB 1688.50
2 Treze FC 1632.20
3 Serra Branca Esporte Clube 1631.29
4 Campinense Clube 1594.96
5 Sousa EC 1548.42
6 Nacional de Patos 1488.30
7 Pombal EC PB 1380.01
8 EC de Patos 1349.88
9 Atletico Cajazeirense 1347.86
10 Confianca EC Sape PB 1273.81