ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 208
Avg Goals 2.38
Avg Home 1.43
Avg Away 0.95
Home Win % 47.1%
Draw % 27.9%
Away Win % 25.0%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 208
Avg Brier Score 0.5830
Pick Accuracy 51.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5814
Market Brier 0.5801
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 36
Value Bet Hit Rate 2.8%
ROI (flat stake) -85.4%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 69.4% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 30 of 208 matches had at least one · staked 36.00, profit -30.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 5 20.0% 5.00 0.25 5.0%
draw 6 0.0% 6.00 -6.00 -100.0%
away 25 0.0% 25.00 -25.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.6% 0.0% 5
10–20% 15.7% 8.7% 69
20–30% 26.1% 23.9% 209
30–40% 33.2% 32.1% 190
40–50% 43.5% 53.7% 67
50–60% 54.5% 51.0% 49
60–70% 65.2% 82.8% 29
70–80% 74.5% 100.0% 6
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
17.01.24 Independente FSJ vs Cianorte FC 0-1 35% 38% -7.0 30% 33% -8.9 35% 41% -15.4
18.01.24 Clube Andraus Brasil PR vs Athletico PR 0-2 15% 12% 17.6 21% 20% 7.0 64% 78% -18.2
18.01.24 Maringa FC vs Galo Maringa 3-0 55% 66% -17.7 26% 27% -3.6 19% 19% 1.9
18.01.24 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Londrina PR 0-0 53% 63% -15.9 26% 27% -3.8 21% 22% -4.4
19.01.24 Coritiba vs PSTC Procopense 3-1 68% 81% -16.5 20% 19% 6.5 12% 10% 18.1
19.01.24 FC Cascavel vs Azuriz FC 0-2 43% 51% -15.8 29% 31% -7.2 28% 31% -7.5
20.01.24 Maringa FC vs Clube Andraus Brasil PR 3-0 59% 71% -17.6 25% 25% -1.5 16% 15% 7.2
21.01.24 Azuriz FC vs Athletico PR 0-0 21% 22% -2.4 26% 26% -3.1 53% 65% -17.4
21.01.24 Cianorte FC vs Londrina PR 1-0 42% 48% -11.1 31% 34% -9.8 27% 30% -10.6
21.01.24 Galo Maringa vs FC Cascavel 1-1 39% 43% -9.9 30% 33% -9.1 31% 35% -13.1
21.01.24 Operario Ferroviario EC vs PSTC Procopense 2-0 66% 79% -15.7 21% 20% 4.0 13% 12% 8.8
23.01.24 Coritiba vs Independente FSJ 2-0 63% 76% -17.9 23% 22% 3.4 14% 12% 18.8
24.01.24 Athletico PR vs Maringa FC 1-1 56% 67% -16.1 25% 25% -2.0 19% 20% -4.0
24.01.24 Galo Maringa vs Azuriz FC 0-1 31% 33% -5.7 30% 33% -8.9 38% 45% -16.0
25.01.24 Cianorte FC vs Operario Ferroviario EC 1-0 32% 34% -5.7 30% 32% -7.6 38% 45% -15.9
25.01.24 FC Cascavel vs Clube Andraus Brasil PR 1-0 54% 65% -18.1 26% 27% -2.5 20% 20% 2.2
25.01.24 PSTC Procopense vs Independente FSJ 1-1 37% 43% -12.6 29% 31% -7.0 34% 38% -12.3
26.01.24 Londrina PR vs Coritiba 3-3 34% 38% -11.6 30% 32% -7.6 36% 41% -11.3
27.01.24 Athletico PR vs Galo Maringa 2-1 77% 90% -14.2 16% 13% 16.2 7% 5% 41.4
27.01.24 Maringa FC vs FC Cascavel 1-1 53% 62% -15.0 27% 28% -4.5 20% 21% -3.3
28.01.24 Clube Andraus Brasil PR vs Azuriz FC 1-0 27% 28% -3.6 27% 29% -4.1 46% 56% -17.5
28.01.24 Coritiba vs Operario Ferroviario EC 4-0 46% 54% -15.8 29% 31% -7.4 26% 27% -5.6
28.01.24 Independente FSJ vs Londrina PR 0-0 33% 36% -8.2 30% 33% -9.1 37% 43% -15.1
28.01.24 PSTC Procopense vs Cianorte FC 2-1 31% 33% -7.2 29% 31% -7.0 40% 48% -16.0
30.01.24 Clube Andraus Brasil PR vs Independente FSJ 1-0 37% 43% -12.8 28% 29% -5.4 35% 41% -14.1
31.01.24 FC Cascavel vs PSTC Procopense 2-0 51% 60% -16.1 28% 30% -7.1 21% 22% -2.1
01.02.24 Cianorte FC vs Athletico PR 0-1 25% 26% -3.3 28% 29% -5.2 47% 56% -16.2
01.02.24 Londrina PR vs Galo Maringa 1-2 53% 61% -14.3 27% 29% -6.3 21% 22% -6.9
02.02.24 Azuriz FC vs Coritiba 1-0 34% 38% -10.5 29% 31% -7.1 37% 43% -14.5
02.02.24 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Maringa FC 0-1 44% 50% -12.8 29% 31% -7.8 28% 31% -11.7
03.02.24 Athletico PR vs PSTC Procopense 4-0 76% 91% -16.3 15% 12% 26.1 9% 6% 37.4
03.02.24 FC Cascavel vs Londrina PR 1-1 41% 48% -13.9 30% 33% -9.6 29% 32% -10.4
04.02.24 Coritiba vs Clube Andraus Brasil PR 3-1 69% 83% -17.2 20% 18% 8.6 11% 9% 23.9
04.02.24 Galo Maringa vs Cianorte FC 3-3 32% 34% -8.5 31% 35% -10.5 37% 43% -14.3
04.02.24 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Azuriz FC 1-0 51% 60% -14.6 28% 30% -7.5 21% 22% -5.0
06.02.24 Maringa FC vs Independente FSJ 2-1 56% 67% -15.9 26% 27% -4.5 18% 18% -0.4
07.02.24 Clube Andraus Brasil PR vs Galo Maringa 1-1 36% 39% -9.5 29% 31% -6.8 36% 43% -15.8
08.02.24 Athletico PR vs FC Cascavel 1-0 67% 81% -16.9 20% 19% 7.3 13% 11% 16.4
08.02.24 Cianorte FC vs Coritiba 0-1 30% 32% -7.4 29% 31% -7.1 41% 49% -15.8
08.02.24 Independente FSJ vs Operario Ferroviario EC 0-1 25% 26% -2.5 29% 31% -7.4 46% 56% -17.1
08.02.24 PSTC Procopense vs Londrina PR 1-2 28% 29% -2.2 30% 33% -8.7 42% 50% -16.7
09.02.24 Azuriz FC vs Maringa FC 1-1 33% 36% -7.2 31% 34% -10.2 36% 43% -15.7
10.02.24 Galo Maringa vs Coritiba 1-3 23% 23% -0.1 27% 28% -3.8 50% 61% -18.2
10.02.24 Londrina PR vs Athletico PR 1-2 32% 36% -10.8 30% 33% -9.0 37% 43% -12.6
11.02.24 Cianorte FC vs Azuriz FC 3-2 42% 49% -13.1 32% 36% -11.2 26% 28% -6.8
11.02.24 Independente FSJ vs FC Cascavel 2-1 31% 33% -7.0 30% 33% -9.4 39% 47% -16.6
11.02.24 Maringa FC vs PSTC Procopense 1-0 67% 80% -16.8 21% 20% 5.2 12% 11% 17.6
11.02.24 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Clube Andraus Brasil PR 4-0 68% 81% -16.2 21% 20% 3.2 11% 10% 17.7
14.02.24 Clube Andraus Brasil PR vs Londrina PR 1-1 30% 33% -9.1 29% 31% -7.1 41% 48% -14.6
14.02.24 PSTC Procopense vs Galo Maringa 3-3 34% 37% -8.7 28% 30% -6.4 38% 45% -16.8
15.02.24 Athletico PR vs Operario Ferroviario EC 0-0 57% 69% -17.8 25% 25% -0.2 18% 17% 7.8
15.02.24 Azuriz FC vs Independente FSJ 2-1 50% 58% -14.9 28% 31% -7.8 22% 23% -5.4
15.02.24 Coritiba vs Maringa FC 2-2 46% 54% -15.1 29% 32% -8.7 25% 26% -6.4
15.02.24 FC Cascavel vs Cianorte FC 1-0 38% 42% -9.8 31% 34% -9.4 32% 36% -12.8
17.02.24 Independente FSJ vs Galo Maringa 2-0 41% 47% -11.9 29% 31% -7.4 30% 34% -12.7
17.02.24 PSTC Procopense vs Clube Andraus Brasil PR 1-0 40% 47% -13.2 29% 31% -7.5 31% 35% -12.5
18.02.24 Coritiba vs Athletico PR 1-1 35% 39% -11.6 30% 33% -9.1 35% 40% -12.5
18.02.24 Londrina PR vs Azuriz FC 5-2 42% 49% -13.3 30% 33% -9.3 27% 30% -9.3
18.02.24 Maringa FC vs Cianorte FC 2-2 52% 62% -16.3 27% 29% -5.5 21% 22% -3.2
18.02.24 Operario Ferroviario EC vs FC Cascavel 1-1 54% 65% -16.1 26% 28% -5.1 20% 20% -2.3
25.02.24 Athletico PR vs Independente FSJ 3-1 71% 85% -16.3 19% 17% 11.6 10% 8% 25.5
25.02.24 Azuriz FC vs PSTC Procopense 1-0 51% 60% -13.9 27% 29% -5.9 22% 24% -8.2
25.02.24 Cianorte FC vs Clube Andraus Brasil PR 0-1 50% 59% -14.4 28% 29% -6.5 22% 24% -7.0
25.02.24 FC Cascavel vs Coritiba 1-0 29% 30% -4.9 30% 32% -8.4 42% 51% -17.6
25.02.24 Galo Maringa vs Operario Ferroviario EC 1-2 31% 35% -10.5 30% 32% -8.4 39% 45% -14.1
25.02.24 Londrina PR vs Maringa FC 3-1 40% 47% -14.8 30% 32% -8.6 31% 34% -10.5
02.03.24 Londrina PR vs Athletico PR 1-0 27% 29% -6.9 30% 32% -8.2 43% 51% -14.8
03.03.24 Azuriz FC vs Operario Ferroviario EC 0-0 30% 32% -6.8 30% 33% -9.5 40% 48% -16.6
03.03.24 Cianorte FC vs Coritiba 0-4 26% 26% -0.4 29% 31% -7.0 45% 55% -18.1
05.03.24 FC Cascavel vs Maringa FC 1-0 35% 38% -9.2 30% 33% -9.2 35% 41% -14.7
09.03.24 Coritiba vs Cianorte FC 2-0 59% 70% -15.8 24% 24% -0.9 17% 16% 3.3
09.03.24 Maringa FC vs FC Cascavel 3-1 51% 60% -15.0 28% 30% -6.8 21% 22% -2.6
10.03.24 Athletico PR vs Londrina PR 6-0 64% 78% -17.3 22% 21% 4.5 14% 12% 14.8
12.03.24 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Azuriz FC 1-0 57% 68% -16.1 26% 27% -4.3 17% 16% 4.5
16.03.24 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Athletico PR 1-2 27% 28% -2.3 31% 34% -9.9 42% 50% -16.4
17.03.24 Maringa FC vs Coritiba 2-0 32% 34% -6.4 32% 36% -10.8 36% 43% -14.4
24.03.24 Coritiba vs Maringa FC 0-0 57% 68% -16.9 26% 26% -3.0 18% 17% 3.0
28.03.24 Athletico PR vs Operario Ferroviario EC 1-0 58% 69% -16.8 25% 26% -4.1 17% 17% 1.9
11.01.25 Athletico PR vs Parana Clube 2-1 59% 71% -17.2 24% 24% -0.2 17% 16% 6.1
12.01.25 Cianorte FC vs FC Cascavel 2-1 40% 45% -11.6 31% 34% -10.1 29% 32% -10.7
12.01.25 Coritiba vs Londrina PR 0-2 39% 44% -11.9 29% 32% -8.6 31% 36% -13.7
12.01.25 Maringa FC vs Independente FSJ 2-1 65% 78% -16.6 23% 22% 1.3 12% 10% 20.4
12.01.25 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Clube Andraus Brasil PR 1-0 68% 81% -16.1 21% 20% 4.4 11% 9% 25.7
15.01.25 Athletico PR vs Rio Branco PR 5-1 65% 77% -15.3 22% 22% -0.0 13% 12% 4.9
15.01.25 Clube Andraus Brasil PR vs Azuriz FC 2-0 30% 32% -5.9 31% 35% -10.3 38% 45% -15.5
16.01.25 Coritiba vs Independente FSJ 3-0 59% 70% -16.2 25% 26% -4.5 16% 15% 3.3
16.01.25 FC Cascavel vs Londrina PR 0-0 37% 42% -11.3 31% 35% -10.2 32% 36% -11.1
16.01.25 Maringa FC vs Cianorte FC 0-1 52% 62% -16.2 27% 29% -5.6 21% 22% -4.1
17.01.25 Parana Clube vs Operario Ferroviario EC 1-1 30% 32% -5.7 32% 36% -11.2 37% 43% -14.2
18.01.25 Azuriz FC vs Athletico PR 1-0 21% 19% 10.1 26% 27% -1.9 53% 66% -20.1
18.01.25 Independente FSJ vs Cianorte FC 1-5 33% 36% -9.0 31% 34% -9.5 36% 42% -14.1
18.01.25 Londrina PR vs Maringa FC 2-3 38% 43% -11.4 30% 33% -9.4 32% 37% -13.3
19.01.25 FC Cascavel vs Coritiba 1-0 31% 32% -5.0 30% 33% -8.8 39% 47% -16.2
19.01.25 Operario Ferroviario EC vs Rio Branco PR 2-0 69% 82% -16.3 20% 19% 4.8 11% 10% 14.2
19.01.25 Parana Clube vs Clube Andraus Brasil PR 0-0 58% 68% -15.3 26% 28% -5.5 16% 15% 4.7
22.01.25 Independente FSJ vs FC Cascavel 0-0 29% 30% -4.8 31% 34% -9.8 41% 49% -16.8
23.01.25 Athletico PR vs Operario Ferroviario EC 1-1 50% 60% -16.2 28% 30% -7.0 21% 22% -1.9
23.01.25 Cianorte FC vs Londrina PR 1-2 39% 44% -12.7 30% 33% -9.2 31% 35% -11.2
23.01.25 Maringa FC vs Coritiba 0-2 56% 68% -17.6 26% 26% -2.4 18% 17% 7.2
23.01.25 Rio Branco PR vs Clube Andraus Brasil PR 3-0 42% 49% -13.5 30% 33% -9.9 28% 31% -11.2
Showing the 100 most recent of 208 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Athletico PR 1952.52
2 Maringa FC 1829.42
3 Coritiba 1791.31
4 Operario Ferroviario EC 1791.06
5 Cianorte FC 1741.81
6 Londrina PR 1720.13
7 Foz do Iguacu 1688.36
8 FC Cascavel 1684.53
9 Independente FSJ 1667.03
10 Azuriz FC 1656.16
11 Galo Maringa 1568.23
12 Clube Andraus Brasil PR 1541.77

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Athletico PR 1795.01
2 Maringa FC 1750.57
3 Coritiba 1727.63
4 Operario Ferroviario EC 1726.79
5 Cianorte FC 1637.47
6 FC Cascavel 1618.53
7 Londrina PR 1618.48
8 Independente FSJ 1515.37
9 Galo Maringa 1501.45
10 Foz do Iguacu 1475.52
11 Azuriz FC 1449.47
12 Clube Andraus Brasil PR 1436.00