ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 272
Avg Goals 2.34
Avg Home 1.37
Avg Away 0.97
Home Win % 44.5%
Draw % 27.9%
Away Win % 27.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 272
Avg Brier Score 0.5886
Pick Accuracy 51.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5929
Market Brier 0.5889
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 272 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.8% 6.5% 46
10–20% 15.7% 20.7% 145
20–30% 25.9% 26.6% 241
30–40% 32.8% 32.7% 150
40–50% 44.5% 39.8% 83
50–60% 54.8% 50.0% 56
60–70% 64.5% 68.0% 50
70–80% 74.3% 62.2% 37
80–90% 82.9% 100.0% 8
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
20.01.24 Botafogo SP vs Santos FC 0-1 27% 34% -21.3 29% 31% -6.6 44% 42% 4.8
20.01.24 CA Bragantino vs EC Agua Santa 0-1 74% 73% 1.3 18% 22% -19.3 8% 12% -30.0
21.01.24 Corinthians vs Guarani SP 1-0 62% 62% -0.3 24% 26% -9.7 15% 19% -23.0
21.01.24 Inter de Limeira vs Portuguesa Desportos 2-3 35% 40% -12.2 32% 33% -5.0 33% 35% -4.7
21.01.24 Novorizontino vs Palmeiras 1-1 16% 19% -17.8 25% 27% -6.1 59% 61% -3.9
21.01.24 Ponte Preta vs Mirassol 1-1 26% 31% -15.6 30% 31% -4.4 44% 44% -1.5
21.01.24 Sao Bernardo FC vs Ituano 2-0 41% 42% -0.9 31% 32% -5.1 28% 33% -15.6
21.01.24 Sao Paulo vs EC Santo André 3-1 72% 72% 0.6 18% 22% -16.5 9% 13% -28.8
23.01.24 Mirassol vs Sao Paulo 1-1 25% 24% 4.5 30% 30% -1.6 45% 53% -15.2
24.01.24 EC Agua Santa vs Botafogo SP 0-1 51% 51% -0.4 30% 33% -10.1 19% 23% -17.9
24.01.24 Ituano vs Corinthians 1-0 26% 27% -2.2 30% 31% -2.4 43% 49% -11.7
24.01.24 Portuguesa Desportos vs CA Bragantino 1-2 19% 23% -18.6 28% 30% -7.8 53% 54% -1.5
25.01.24 Guarani SP vs Sao Bernardo FC 0-0 42% 43% -2.5 31% 32% -4.9 27% 31% -13.8
25.01.24 Palmeiras vs Inter de Limeira 3-2 85% 85% 0.1 11% 15% -26.9 4% 6% -32.7
25.01.24 Santos FC vs Ponte Preta 3-1 68% 68% -0.0 21% 24% -14.1 11% 14% -26.0
26.01.24 EC Santo André vs Novorizontino 0-0 25% 29% -15.2 31% 33% -6.7 44% 44% -1.1
27.01.24 CA Bragantino vs Botafogo SP 1-1 77% 76% 1.0 16% 20% -19.4 7% 11% -29.9
27.01.24 Sao Paulo vs Portuguesa Desportos 1-0 76% 76% -0.2 17% 20% -17.2 8% 11% -29.2
28.01.24 Ituano vs Guarani SP 0-3 37% 35% 4.9 32% 34% -6.3 32% 38% -17.6
28.01.24 Mirassol vs Novorizontino 1-1 42% 42% 0.2 31% 33% -7.4 27% 33% -17.9
28.01.24 Palmeiras vs Santos FC 2-1 68% 65% 4.2 21% 26% -19.4 11% 16% -29.9
28.01.24 Ponte Preta vs Inter de Limeira 0-0 48% 49% -2.0 30% 32% -7.3 22% 27% -16.3
28.01.24 Sao Bernardo FC vs Corinthians 1-0 28% 29% -3.8 31% 32% -3.4 41% 45% -10.8
30.01.24 Corinthians vs Sao Paulo 1-2 30% 31% -2.0 32% 33% -4.6 38% 43% -12.4
31.01.24 CA Bragantino vs Palmeiras 0-1 42% 44% -4.5 30% 31% -3.4 28% 32% -13.7
31.01.24 Portuguesa Desportos vs Ponte Preta 0-2 47% 50% -5.3 29% 30% -4.5 24% 28% -14.5
01.02.24 Botafogo SP vs EC Santo André 1-0 48% 49% -2.5 30% 32% -6.1 22% 26% -13.7
01.02.24 EC Agua Santa vs Santos FC 0-1 21% 24% -10.8 28% 29% -3.3 50% 55% -7.9
01.02.24 Guarani SP vs Mirassol 2-3 40% 41% -3.0 31% 32% -4.6 30% 34% -14.1
01.02.24 Inter de Limeira vs Sao Bernardo FC 2-0 30% 31% -1.5 31% 32% -3.6 39% 44% -13.2
01.02.24 Novorizontino vs Ituano 2-0 60% 56% 5.8 26% 30% -15.7 15% 20% -26.4
03.02.24 EC Agua Santa vs Mirassol 2-1 27% 28% -1.3 31% 32% -3.7 42% 48% -12.8
04.02.24 Corinthians vs Novorizontino 1-3 55% 56% -0.7 28% 30% -8.7 17% 21% -18.5
04.02.24 EC Santo André vs CA Bragantino 1-2 12% 17% -25.4 22% 26% -12.6 65% 65% 1.0
04.02.24 Ituano vs Botafogo SP 0-0 43% 42% 3.6 30% 32% -6.9 27% 33% -19.5
04.02.24 Santos FC vs Guarani SP 2-0 65% 65% 0.9 22% 26% -12.6 12% 17% -25.1
05.02.24 Ponte Preta vs Sao Bernardo FC 3-3 38% 38% -0.6 31% 32% -4.2 32% 37% -14.7
07.02.24 Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta 0-3 46% 48% -2.8 30% 31% -4.6 24% 28% -13.8
07.02.24 Santos FC vs Corinthians 1-0 45% 45% -0.2 30% 32% -7.7 25% 31% -19.2
08.02.24 Mirassol vs EC Santo André 4-0 61% 60% 2.1 24% 29% -14.3 15% 20% -26.2
08.02.24 Novorizontino vs CA Bragantino 0-2 26% 32% -18.8 29% 31% -5.9 44% 44% -0.1
08.02.24 Sao Bernardo FC vs Portuguesa Desportos 1-0 50% 49% 1.9 28% 31% -8.0 22% 28% -20.8
08.02.24 Sao Paulo vs EC Agua Santa 3-0 75% 74% 2.6 17% 22% -22.9 7% 11% -31.1
09.02.24 Guarani SP vs Inter de Limeira 0-1 53% 51% 2.5 28% 31% -10.5 19% 25% -22.2
09.02.24 Palmeiras vs Ituano 2-0 83% 83% 0.1 12% 16% -26.2 5% 7% -32.8
10.02.24 Ponte Preta vs Sao Paulo 2-0 11% 14% -20.9 22% 24% -8.8 66% 68% -3.0
11.02.24 CA Bragantino vs Sao Bernardo FC 1-1 71% 68% 4.1 19% 24% -21.5 10% 14% -30.8
11.02.24 Corinthians vs Portuguesa Desportos 2-0 72% 72% 0.4 19% 22% -15.0 9% 12% -26.8
11.02.24 Inter de Limeira vs Botafogo SP 2-0 41% 41% -0.3 31% 32% -4.9 29% 34% -15.5
11.02.24 Mirassol vs Santos FC 2-2 34% 35% -3.5 31% 32% -3.9 35% 41% -13.3
12.02.24 EC Santo André vs Palmeiras 1-1 6% 8% -27.8 16% 19% -16.9 78% 79% -0.8
13.02.24 Novorizontino vs Guarani SP 2-0 52% 52% -0.5 29% 31% -8.4 20% 24% -18.7
14.02.24 Ituano vs Mirassol 1-1 26% 27% -5.6 31% 32% -4.3 44% 49% -10.6
14.02.24 Sao Paulo vs Santos FC 0-1 58% 56% 3.8 25% 29% -12.2 17% 22% -25.2
15.02.24 Botafogo SP vs Corinthians 1-4 19% 23% -15.9 29% 31% -7.0 52% 54% -3.3
15.02.24 CA Bragantino vs Ponte Preta 1-0 71% 68% 4.4 18% 24% -22.4 10% 15% -31.9
15.02.24 Guarani SP vs EC Santo André 2-2 53% 51% 5.7 27% 31% -12.5 19% 26% -24.9
15.02.24 Inter de Limeira vs Novorizontino 3-1 28% 30% -8.8 32% 33% -5.3 41% 44% -8.2
15.02.24 Sao Bernardo FC vs Palmeiras 0-1 14% 18% -20.8 25% 28% -9.4 60% 62% -2.1
16.02.24 Portuguesa Desportos vs EC Agua Santa 1-1 37% 38% -1.2 31% 33% -5.8 31% 37% -15.5
17.02.24 Mirassol vs Botafogo SP 2-1 65% 64% 1.8 23% 27% -14.4 12% 17% -26.0
17.02.24 Sao Paulo vs CA Bragantino 2-2 58% 58% -0.1 26% 29% -10.3 16% 21% -22.6
18.02.24 Palmeiras vs Corinthians 2-2 63% 61% 2.8 23% 27% -13.8 14% 19% -26.6
18.02.24 Ponte Preta vs Ituano 1-1 54% 51% 4.4 27% 30% -10.9 19% 26% -24.0
18.02.24 Portuguesa Desportos vs Guarani SP 1-0 37% 39% -5.0 31% 32% -3.7 32% 36% -11.3
18.02.24 Santos FC vs Novorizontino 1-2 55% 55% 0.7 27% 29% -8.9 18% 23% -21.2
19.02.24 Sao Bernardo FC vs EC Santo André 1-0 54% 50% 7.5 27% 31% -13.9 19% 26% -26.5
24.02.24 Ituano vs CA Bragantino 0-1 16% 20% -20.1 25% 26% -6.3 59% 61% -2.0
24.02.24 Novorizontino vs EC Agua Santa 1-0 62% 60% 2.6 25% 29% -15.7 13% 18% -26.2
24.02.24 Palmeiras vs Mirassol 3-1 73% 71% 2.0 18% 23% -19.3 9% 12% -29.6
25.02.24 Botafogo SP vs Portuguesa Desportos 2-1 50% 49% 3.4 28% 31% -9.2 21% 27% -21.6
25.02.24 Guarani SP vs Sao Paulo 1-1 14% 18% -21.9 24% 26% -8.9 62% 63% -2.3
25.02.24 Santos FC vs Sao Bernardo FC 2-1 65% 64% 1.8 22% 26% -13.0 13% 17% -25.9
26.02.24 Corinthians vs Ponte Preta 0-1 73% 71% 2.2 18% 23% -19.8 9% 12% -29.9
28.02.24 Portuguesa Desportos vs Palmeiras 0-2 9% 13% -27.2 20% 24% -15.9 71% 70% 0.9
29.02.24 Inter de Limeira vs Sao Paulo 0-3 10% 13% -24.7 21% 24% -13.0 69% 69% -1.0
01.03.24 Botafogo SP vs Guarani SP 1-1 48% 48% 1.6 29% 32% -8.9 22% 28% -20.1
02.03.24 Corinthians vs EC Santo André 3-2 79% 78% 0.9 15% 19% -22.0 6% 9% -30.9
02.03.24 Portuguesa Desportos vs Mirassol 1-0 25% 29% -11.6 30% 31% -3.9 45% 48% -6.1
03.03.24 CA Bragantino vs Santos FC 1-0 47% 47% 0.8 29% 31% -6.6 24% 29% -18.7
03.03.24 Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino 1-1 29% 32% -9.8 31% 32% -3.5 40% 42% -5.8
03.03.24 Sao Bernardo FC vs EC Agua Santa 2-0 52% 49% 6.6 28% 32% -12.7 20% 26% -24.6
04.03.24 Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras 1-1 37% 38% -2.7 31% 32% -3.9 32% 36% -13.1
09.03.24 Palmeiras vs Botafogo SP 1-0 82% 82% 0.4 13% 17% -24.2 5% 7% -31.8
09.03.24 Santos FC vs Inter de Limeira 3-2 71% 69% 2.9 19% 24% -20.4 10% 14% -30.5
10.03.24 EC Agua Santa vs Corinthians 0-0 23% 29% -21.9 28% 30% -7.6 49% 48% 3.0
10.03.24 EC Santo André vs Ponte Preta 1-0 45% 45% -1.1 30% 32% -6.1 25% 29% -15.8
10.03.24 Guarani SP vs CA Bragantino 1-0 33% 39% -16.2 30% 30% -2.3 38% 38% -0.6
10.03.24 Ituano vs Sao Paulo 2-3 9% 12% -25.5 20% 23% -13.8 71% 71% -0.5
10.03.24 Mirassol vs Sao Bernardo FC 0-2 46% 43% 5.8 29% 31% -7.8 25% 32% -21.9
10.03.24 Novorizontino vs Portuguesa Desportos 2-0 71% 71% -0.4 20% 23% -14.9 9% 12% -26.4
16.03.24 Palmeiras vs Ponte Preta 5-1 83% 83% 0.7 12% 16% -25.4 5% 7% -32.2
17.03.24 CA Bragantino vs Inter de Limeira 3-0 74% 74% 0.1 18% 21% -16.4 8% 11% -28.1
17.03.24 Sao Paulo vs Novorizontino 1-1 67% 66% 1.8 21% 25% -14.7 12% 16% -26.9
18.03.24 Santos FC vs Portuguesa Desportos 0-0 72% 70% 2.6 19% 24% -20.4 9% 13% -30.3
28.03.24 Santos FC vs CA Bragantino 3-1 39% 38% 1.0 31% 32% -5.3 31% 37% -17.4
29.03.24 Palmeiras vs Novorizontino 1-0 75% 75% 0.5 17% 21% -17.8 8% 11% -28.9
15.01.25 Guarani SP vs Botafogo SP 2-0 45% 44% 1.8 30% 32% -7.4 25% 31% -19.2
15.01.25 Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta 0-1 65% 62% 4.5 22% 27% -16.9 12% 17% -28.2
15.01.25 Velo Clube vs Noroeste Bauru 0-2 35% 36% -1.4 32% 34% -5.9 33% 38% -14.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 272 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

16 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Palmeiras 2068.02
2 Novorizontino 1968.52
3 CA Bragantino 1951.86
4 Corinthians 1949.75
5 Sao Paulo 1939.23
6 Mirassol 1921.72
7 Santos FC 1921.27
8 Portuguesa Desportos 1906.41
9 Guarani SP 1895.74
10 Botafogo SP 1764.12
11 Capivariano FC 1758.35
12 EC Primavera 1745.59
13 Noroeste Bauru 1730.21
14 Sao Bernardo FC 1716.28
15 Velo Clube 1690.42
16 Ponte Preta 1429.65

Away Ratings

16 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Palmeiras 1998.63
2 Santos FC 1867.51
3 CA Bragantino 1865.35
4 Sao Paulo 1837.68
5 Corinthians 1836.66
6 Novorizontino 1834.18
7 Mirassol 1799.14
8 Portuguesa Desportos 1756.72
9 Guarani SP 1731.08
10 Sao Bernardo FC 1708.65
11 Noroeste Bauru 1693.74
12 Botafogo SP 1668.84
13 EC Primavera 1663.03
14 Velo Clube 1638.47
15 Capivariano FC 1617.08
16 Ponte Preta 1385.33