ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 263
Avg Goals 2.28
Avg Home 1.28
Avg Away 1.00
Home Win % 39.5%
Draw % 31.2%
Away Win % 29.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 263
Avg Brier Score 0.6499
Pick Accuracy 44.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6573
Market Brier 0.6515
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 5
Value Bet Hit Rate 40.0%
ROI (flat stake) 190.0%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 4 of 263 matches had at least one · staked 5.00, profit 9.50 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 3 66.7% 3.00 11.50 383.3%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 18.2% 25.0% 24
20–30% 26.2% 25.9% 205
30–40% 33.1% 32.3% 409
40–50% 44.0% 48.7% 119
50–60% 52.7% 43.3% 30
60–70% 60.6% 50.0% 2
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
17.01.24 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs EC Sao Bento 0-1 42% 48% -11.6 31% 32% -3.9 27% 30% -11.3
17.01.24 Monte Azul vs Ferroviaria 1-1 21% 20% 4.2 28% 27% 3.4 51% 62% -17.5
18.01.24 EC Taubate vs XV de Piracicaba 1-1 30% 34% -10.6 32% 34% -5.0 37% 43% -11.9
18.01.24 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs Noroeste Bauru 2-1 39% 45% -13.4 30% 31% -1.7 30% 34% -10.3
20.01.24 Oeste Itapolis vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 1-1 32% 36% -11.0 31% 31% -2.1 37% 43% -12.9
20.01.24 XV de Piracicaba vs Atletico Linense 1-2 52% 62% -15.6 28% 28% 1.5 19% 19% 1.6
21.01.24 Ferroviaria vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 2-1 56% 68% -18.2 26% 24% 8.0 19% 17% 7.2
24.01.24 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Velo Clube 1-0 42% 49% -14.3 32% 33% -4.8 26% 29% -7.2
24.01.24 EC Primavera vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 1-2 35% 40% -13.2 31% 31% -2.3 35% 39% -11.4
24.01.24 Ferroviaria vs EC Sao Bento 1-1 45% 52% -13.7 31% 32% -3.6 24% 26% -5.7
25.01.24 XV de Piracicaba vs Oeste Itapolis 0-1 42% 49% -13.5 31% 32% -3.2 27% 29% -7.0
27.01.24 EC Sao Bento vs XV de Piracicaba 0-2 40% 47% -13.4 31% 32% -3.3 29% 31% -8.7
27.01.24 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs Capivariano FC 1-0 44% 51% -12.8 31% 32% -4.3 25% 28% -9.7
28.01.24 Comercial FC vs Ferroviaria 1-1 25% 26% -3.9 29% 29% 0.0 46% 55% -15.9
28.01.24 Portuguesa Santista vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 2-1 42% 49% -14.0 30% 31% -1.7 28% 30% -8.3
31.01.24 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Atletico Linense 1-1 43% 50% -13.6 30% 31% -2.1 27% 29% -9.3
01.02.24 Ferroviaria vs XV de Piracicaba 0-0 44% 52% -14.2 31% 32% -3.4 24% 26% -4.8
01.02.24 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs Rio Claro FC 1-0 46% 53% -13.4 30% 31% -2.2 24% 26% -7.6
03.02.24 Capivariano FC vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 0-1 42% 49% -13.9 30% 31% -2.6 28% 30% -9.1
03.02.24 Velo Clube vs Ferroviaria 0-0 29% 31% -6.6 31% 32% -2.9 40% 47% -14.2
03.02.24 XV de Piracicaba vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 0-0 37% 42% -12.3 33% 35% -6.2 30% 33% -9.7
07.02.24 Portuguesa Santista vs Ferroviaria 0-2 33% 37% -10.4 31% 31% -2.0 36% 42% -13.1
08.02.24 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 5-0 48% 57% -15.3 30% 30% -1.6 22% 22% -1.9
08.02.24 XV de Piracicaba vs Capivariano FC 0-0 50% 60% -16.6 29% 29% -0.4 20% 20% 2.5
10.02.24 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs XV de Piracicaba 0-1 35% 40% -13.3 31% 32% -3.5 34% 38% -11.1
10.02.24 Ferroviaria vs Rio Claro FC 1-0 46% 54% -14.2 30% 30% -1.8 24% 26% -7.0
10.02.24 Monte Azul vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 0-2 25% 25% -1.5 29% 29% 0.0 46% 56% -17.3
17.02.24 Ferroviaria vs Atletico Linense 2-1 48% 56% -14.1 30% 31% -2.9 21% 22% -3.6
17.02.24 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs Comercial FC 4-0 61% 74% -17.8 24% 22% 10.1 15% 12% 17.0
17.02.24 XV de Piracicaba vs Portuguesa Santista 2-0 39% 44% -12.1 32% 34% -4.7 29% 31% -8.4
18.02.24 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Monte Azul 3-0 46% 54% -15.1 29% 29% -0.3 25% 26% -5.8
21.02.24 EC Primavera vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 1-1 36% 42% -12.6 32% 33% -4.6 32% 36% -11.0
21.02.24 Noroeste Bauru vs Ferroviaria 2-0 38% 42% -11.0 31% 32% -3.4 31% 36% -12.4
22.02.24 EC Taubate vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 0-0 25% 25% -1.4 30% 30% -1.2 45% 55% -17.4
22.02.24 Velo Clube vs XV de Piracicaba 1-2 34% 38% -11.2 33% 34% -5.7 34% 38% -11.7
24.02.24 Atletico Linense vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 0-0 24% 24% 1.5 30% 30% -0.8 46% 56% -17.6
24.02.24 XV de Piracicaba vs EC Primavera 1-1 46% 54% -14.1 31% 32% -3.5 22% 23% -2.8
25.02.24 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs EC Taubate 2-0 43% 50% -14.4 32% 33% -4.7 25% 27% -5.9
25.02.24 Ferroviaria vs Capivariano FC 1-1 51% 61% -15.7 30% 30% -1.4 19% 18% 4.7
02.03.24 Oeste Itapolis vs Ferroviaria 0-1 29% 30% -5.8 31% 32% -3.2 40% 48% -15.5
02.03.24 Rio Claro FC vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 1-1 41% 48% -13.8 30% 31% -2.2 29% 32% -10.5
02.03.24 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs Portuguesa Santista 1-1 50% 60% -15.7 29% 29% 0.2 21% 22% -2.6
03.03.24 Comercial FC vs XV de Piracicaba 1-4 23% 23% 0.2 31% 31% -2.3 47% 56% -16.9
06.03.24 Ferroviaria vs EC Taubate 0-0 51% 60% -15.1 30% 30% -2.1 19% 19% 0.8
07.03.24 Velo Clube vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 2-1 31% 34% -9.3 32% 34% -4.9 37% 43% -13.0
07.03.24 XV de Piracicaba vs Noroeste Bauru 5-2 37% 42% -11.1 32% 33% -4.2 31% 35% -10.9
08.03.24 Comercial FC vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 1-2 24% 24% -0.6 30% 30% -0.9 46% 55% -16.8
09.03.24 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs Ferroviaria 1-2 39% 44% -12.2 33% 34% -5.6 28% 31% -9.1
10.03.24 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Noroeste Bauru 1-1 36% 41% -11.7 31% 32% -3.2 33% 37% -11.6
10.03.24 Monte Azul vs XV de Piracicaba 4-2 20% 18% 9.4 27% 25% 6.8 53% 66% -18.8
16.03.24 EC Sao Bento vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 2-0 43% 50% -14.9 31% 32% -3.4 26% 28% -5.5
16.03.24 Ferroviaria vs EC Primavera 1-1 46% 53% -13.8 30% 31% -2.9 24% 26% -7.2
16.03.24 Oeste Itapolis vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 0-4 31% 34% -7.4 31% 32% -3.5 37% 44% -15.7
16.03.24 XV de Piracicaba vs Rio Claro FC 1-3 42% 48% -12.1 30% 31% -1.9 28% 31% -10.7
23.03.24 Velo Clube vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 2-1 31% 34% -10.0 33% 34% -5.6 36% 42% -12.6
24.03.24 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Ferroviaria 1-1 36% 40% -10.9 33% 34% -5.4 32% 36% -11.0
24.03.24 Portuguesa Santista vs XV de Piracicaba 3-2 38% 43% -12.1 31% 31% -2.1 31% 35% -11.2
27.03.24 Ferroviaria vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 0-0 46% 54% -15.4 31% 32% -3.6 23% 24% -2.6
28.03.24 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs Velo Clube 1-2 47% 55% -14.9 30% 30% -1.4 23% 24% -4.1
28.03.24 XV de Piracicaba vs Portuguesa Santista 1-1 44% 52% -14.8 30% 31% -1.6 26% 27% -5.4
15.01.25 Atletico Linense vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 1-0 34% 38% -10.3 31% 32% -3.1 34% 39% -12.6
15.01.25 CA Votuporanguense vs Ferroviaria 0-2 32% 34% -7.9 33% 34% -5.1 36% 41% -12.9
15.01.25 Gremio Prudente vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 2-0 34% 38% -10.4 31% 32% -3.1 35% 40% -12.7
15.01.25 Oeste Itapolis vs XV de Piracicaba 1-2 27% 29% -5.8 32% 34% -4.8 41% 48% -14.3
16.01.25 Rio Claro FC vs Ituano 1-1 27% 29% -6.2 31% 31% -2.0 43% 50% -14.8
18.01.25 EC Sao Bento vs CA Votuporanguense 0-0 41% 48% -14.1 31% 32% -3.4 28% 30% -7.9
18.01.25 XV de Piracicaba vs Atletico Linense 2-0 44% 51% -13.5 32% 34% -5.0 23% 24% -3.8
19.01.25 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Rio Claro FC 2-2 43% 49% -12.1 32% 34% -5.2 25% 27% -7.5
19.01.25 Ferroviaria vs Oeste Itapolis 0-1 60% 72% -16.7 26% 24% 5.3 14% 12% 15.3
19.01.25 Ituano vs Gremio Prudente 3-2 43% 49% -12.8 31% 32% -4.0 26% 29% -10.0
19.01.25 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs EC Taubate 3-0 46% 55% -16.2 31% 31% -2.2 24% 24% -0.8
22.01.25 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Portuguesa Santista 3-1 43% 50% -14.5 31% 32% -3.4 26% 28% -6.0
22.01.25 CA Votuporanguense vs Oeste Itapolis 0-2 45% 52% -13.4 30% 30% -1.7 25% 28% -8.8
22.01.25 Capivariano FC vs XV de Piracicaba 1-1 33% 36% -8.8 31% 32% -3.2 36% 42% -14.2
22.01.25 Ferroviaria vs Ituano 3-1 44% 51% -13.6 31% 32% -3.5 25% 27% -6.6
22.01.25 Rio Claro FC vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 0-0 33% 37% -11.1 31% 31% -2.0 36% 42% -12.5
25.01.25 Capivariano FC vs Ferroviaria 3-1 28% 29% -4.3 32% 33% -3.8 40% 47% -14.5
25.01.25 EC Taubate vs CA Votuporanguense 2-0 33% 36% -8.4 32% 33% -4.1 35% 40% -13.2
25.01.25 Ituano vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 1-0 46% 55% -15.5 30% 30% -1.4 24% 25% -4.2
25.01.25 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs EC Primavera 0-0 40% 47% -14.0 31% 32% -2.9 29% 31% -6.8
25.01.25 XV de Piracicaba vs Gremio Prudente 1-0 44% 51% -13.5 32% 33% -4.4 24% 26% -4.8
29.01.25 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Oeste Itapolis 2-3 46% 53% -13.6 30% 31% -2.5 24% 25% -5.7
29.01.25 EC Santo André vs CA Votuporanguense 1-3 45% 53% -14.6 31% 32% -3.6 23% 24% -3.9
29.01.25 EC Sao Bento vs Ituano 0-0 37% 43% -12.6 33% 34% -4.9 30% 32% -7.0
29.01.25 Ferroviaria vs EC Taubate 3-2 54% 65% -16.7 29% 29% -0.0 18% 17% 6.1
30.01.25 Portuguesa Santista vs XV de Piracicaba 0-0 29% 31% -6.3 32% 34% -4.5 38% 44% -13.7
30.01.25 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs Atletico Linense 3-0 43% 50% -14.4 32% 33% -4.7 25% 27% -5.9
01.02.25 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Ferroviaria 4-3 29% 31% -6.3 31% 32% -2.9 40% 47% -14.4
01.02.25 CA Votuporanguense vs Capivariano FC 2-1 38% 43% -11.6 32% 33% -4.5 30% 33% -10.8
01.02.25 Ituano vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 1-1 41% 48% -13.7 32% 33% -4.7 27% 29% -7.8
02.02.25 XV de Piracicaba vs EC Santo André 1-0 44% 51% -15.0 32% 34% -5.1 24% 25% -2.9
05.02.25 Ferroviaria vs EC Primavera 0-0 44% 51% -13.9 30% 31% -2.8 25% 28% -8.3
05.02.25 Ituano vs Atletico Linense 3-0 51% 62% -16.8 29% 29% -0.1 20% 20% 0.3
06.02.25 Sao Jose dos Campos FC vs CA Votuporanguense 0-1 45% 53% -14.8 32% 33% -4.5 23% 24% -2.1
06.02.25 XV de Piracicaba vs CA Juventus Sao Paulo 0-1 49% 58% -15.6 30% 30% -1.6 21% 21% 0.0
08.02.25 Gremio Prudente vs CA Votuporanguense 2-2 45% 54% -15.9 31% 32% -3.5 23% 24% -1.7
08.02.25 Portuguesa Santista vs Ituano 3-3 29% 31% -6.6 31% 32% -2.9 40% 47% -14.2
08.02.25 Rio Claro FC vs XV de Piracicaba 2-3 25% 25% -0.3 31% 32% -3.1 44% 53% -16.8
09.02.25 CA Juventus Sao Paulo vs Sao Jose dos Campos FC 2-0 38% 44% -13.8 31% 32% -3.2 30% 33% -8.6
09.02.25 Ferroviaria vs EC Santo André 2-2 46% 55% -15.1 30% 31% -2.0 23% 24% -3.8
Showing the 100 most recent of 263 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Ferroviaria 1849.54
2 Sao Jose dos Campos FC 1804.71
3 Ituano 1782.48
4 EC Agua Santa 1766.49
5 XV de Piracicaba 1763.40
6 CA Votuporanguense 1698.90
7 CA Juventus Sao Paulo 1678.86
8 Sertaozinho FC 1619.14

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Ferroviaria 1752.07
2 Sao Jose dos Campos FC 1686.98
3 CA Juventus Sao Paulo 1666.91
4 EC Agua Santa 1646.31
5 XV de Piracicaba 1638.51
6 Ituano 1609.89
7 CA Votuporanguense 1558.20
8 Sertaozinho FC 1499.44