ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 337
Avg Goals 2.24
Avg Home 1.24
Avg Away 1.00
Home Win % 39.5%
Draw % 30.9%
Away Win % 29.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 337
Avg Brier Score 0.6263
Pick Accuracy 45.1%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6216
Market Brier 0.6275
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 2
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 2 of 337 matches had at least one · staked 2.00, profit -2.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.5% 0.0% 14
10–20% 15.8% 14.1% 135
20–30% 26.0% 34.7% 288
30–40% 33.3% 31.5% 333
40–50% 44.5% 33.0% 106
50–60% 55.0% 53.5% 71
60–70% 63.8% 56.2% 48
70–80% 74.0% 75.0% 12
80–90% 82.4% 100.0% 4
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
24.01.24 Rio Preto EC vs Marilia AC 0-0 7% 11% -35.5 16% 23% -28.0 76% 77% -0.8
24.01.24 SE Itapirense vs EC Sao Bernardo 1-1 33% 38% -15.0 32% 34% -5.8 35% 39% -11.2
24.01.24 Sertaozinho FC vs Uniao Suzano AC 2-5 35% 44% -21.5 32% 33% -5.2 34% 34% -1.1
27.01.24 Desportivo Brasil vs SE Itapirense 1-1 54% 53% 3.0 27% 32% -17.0 19% 28% -31.5
27.01.24 EC Lemense vs Red Bull Brasil 2-2 42% 44% -6.3 28% 29% -2.2 30% 40% -23.9
27.01.24 Marilia AC vs Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 0-0 80% 81% -0.9 14% 21% -30.5 6% 9% -35.6
27.01.24 Sao Caetano vs Rio Preto EC 0-0 61% 60% 0.9 23% 28% -17.8 16% 24% -33.0
27.01.24 Uniao Suzano AC vs CA Votuporanguense 0-0 37% 45% -18.1 30% 30% -1.7 33% 37% -10.9
28.01.24 EC Sao Bernardo vs Sertaozinho FC 1-1 56% 56% -0.4 25% 29% -12.4 19% 27% -29.8
28.01.24 SE Matonense vs Bandeirante EC 0-0 15% 21% -28.5 23% 25% -9.6 62% 65% -4.6
31.01.24 Rio Preto EC vs Desportivo Brasil 0-1 35% 44% -21.6 31% 32% -4.6 34% 36% -5.4
31.01.24 Uniao Sao Joao EC SP vs EC Sao Bernardo 2-3 29% 40% -27.4 30% 32% -8.6 41% 40% 3.7
31.01.24 Uniao Suzano AC vs SE Matonense 5-2 62% 62% -0.4 24% 29% -18.3 14% 20% -31.4
01.02.24 Catanduva FC vs SE Itapirense 3-0 52% 49% 7.0 27% 33% -18.2 21% 30% -32.3
01.02.24 Sao Caetano vs EC Lemense 1-2 39% 45% -14.5 31% 32% -3.6 30% 34% -12.8
03.02.24 Desportivo Brasil vs Sao Caetano 1-0 42% 47% -10.5 32% 34% -6.6 27% 32% -17.2
03.02.24 EC Sao Bernardo vs Gremio Prudente 3-1 24% 34% -29.9 28% 32% -12.6 48% 47% 2.4
03.02.24 Red Bull Brasil vs Catanduva FC 1-3 35% 36% -3.1 30% 30% -2.4 35% 45% -22.6
03.02.24 SE Itapirense vs Rio Preto EC 1-1 60% 61% -1.8 26% 31% -17.5 14% 20% -30.1
03.02.24 Sertaozinho FC vs Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 4-1 44% 48% -7.8 30% 31% -4.9 26% 33% -20.8
07.02.24 Desportivo Brasil vs SE Matonense 2-0 82% 83% -1.6 11% 17% -31.3 7% 10% -36.1
07.02.24 Red Bull Brasil vs SE Itapirense 1-1 43% 43% -0.5 30% 34% -10.3 26% 36% -26.3
07.02.24 Rio Preto EC vs Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 0-1 40% 49% -17.3 31% 32% -4.2 29% 32% -10.8
07.02.24 Uniao Suzano AC vs EC Lemense 1-4 39% 45% -13.7 32% 33% -5.2 29% 34% -13.9
08.02.24 Catanduva FC vs Sao Caetano 2-1 72% 71% 0.5 18% 24% -26.5 10% 16% -35.6
08.02.24 Marilia AC vs Bandeirante EC 1-1 54% 48% 12.6 27% 35% -23.6 20% 30% -34.8
10.02.24 Bandeirante EC vs Gremio Prudente 3-2 30% 36% -16.6 31% 32% -4.2 39% 44% -11.6
10.02.24 EC Lemense vs Desportivo Brasil 1-3 31% 38% -18.8 31% 33% -5.8 38% 42% -10.1
10.02.24 Sao Caetano vs Uniao Suzano AC 1-2 27% 35% -22.6 30% 32% -6.2 43% 44% -4.2
10.02.24 SE Itapirense vs Marilia AC 1-1 16% 23% -30.5 26% 31% -16.5 58% 58% 0.1
10.02.24 Uniao Sao Joao EC SP vs Red Bull Brasil 3-4 40% 48% -16.3 31% 32% -3.5 29% 32% -10.0
11.02.24 EC Sao Bernardo vs Catanduva FC 2-0 33% 41% -18.7 30% 31% -2.4 37% 41% -9.9
11.02.24 Rio Preto EC vs CA Votuporanguense 0-2 16% 24% -32.6 23% 28% -17.5 61% 60% 1.3
17.02.24 Marilia AC vs EC Lemense 1-1 67% 63% 6.6 19% 28% -30.4 13% 21% -36.6
17.02.24 Uniao Sao Joao EC SP vs Bandeirante EC 1-2 32% 42% -22.4 31% 32% -5.0 37% 38% -3.7
17.02.24 Uniao Suzano AC vs Desportivo Brasil 0-1 32% 38% -15.8 32% 33% -5.4 36% 42% -13.4
18.02.24 SE Matonense vs EC Sao Bernardo 1-2 11% 17% -37.1 17% 25% -33.8 73% 69% 4.4
21.02.24 Desportivo Brasil vs Red Bull Brasil 2-1 53% 54% -2.0 27% 30% -11.0 20% 28% -27.8
21.02.24 EC Lemense vs Gremio Prudente 1-4 28% 38% -28.0 28% 30% -7.7 44% 43% 2.0
21.02.24 EC Sao Bernardo vs Uniao Suzano AC 2-0 57% 58% -1.9 26% 29% -12.9 18% 25% -29.2
21.02.24 SE Itapirense vs Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 2-4 43% 48% -10.4 31% 33% -6.7 26% 32% -18.7
21.02.24 SE Matonense vs Marilia AC 0-6 6% 10% -36.7 13% 20% -35.9 81% 81% 0.2
21.02.24 Sertaozinho FC vs Rio Preto EC 3-0 43% 44% -3.0 30% 32% -7.9 27% 36% -25.2
22.02.24 Bandeirante EC vs Catanduva FC 0-1 40% 43% -7.3 30% 32% -5.5 29% 37% -21.1
24.02.24 Catanduva FC vs Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 1-0 53% 55% -2.2 28% 31% -12.0 19% 26% -27.5
24.02.24 Desportivo Brasil vs EC Sao Bernardo 0-3 43% 48% -10.6 31% 32% -4.8 27% 32% -17.1
24.02.24 Uniao Suzano AC vs Bandeirante EC 0-0 43% 49% -12.5 31% 32% -4.5 27% 31% -15.2
25.02.24 Rio Preto EC vs EC Lemense 2-0 29% 35% -16.6 32% 33% -5.5 39% 44% -11.7
28.02.24 EC Lemense vs SE Itapirense 2-3 49% 50% -2.2 29% 32% -11.0 22% 31% -27.2
28.02.24 EC Sao Bernardo vs Sao Caetano 1-0 65% 65% 0.0 22% 27% -18.7 14% 20% -32.5
28.02.24 Gremio Prudente vs Uniao Suzano AC 2-1 64% 66% -2.8 22% 26% -15.0 13% 19% -30.4
28.02.24 Red Bull Brasil vs Rio Preto EC 3-0 53% 52% 3.0 26% 31% -14.5 20% 29% -30.8
28.02.24 Sertaozinho FC vs Bandeirante EC 1-0 31% 39% -21.6 31% 32% -4.8 39% 40% -3.7
28.02.24 Uniao Sao Joao EC SP vs CA Votuporanguense 1-1 27% 33% -19.3 30% 32% -5.6 43% 48% -10.4
29.02.24 Marilia AC vs Desportivo Brasil 3-0 57% 53% 5.8 26% 32% -20.1 18% 26% -32.9
02.03.24 Bandeirante EC vs CA Votuporanguense 0-2 30% 35% -13.6 33% 35% -6.6 37% 43% -12.8
02.03.24 Desportivo Brasil vs Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 0-0 57% 58% -2.1 26% 29% -12.7 17% 24% -28.7
02.03.24 EC Lemense vs EC Sao Bernardo 0-0 27% 33% -20.1 29% 29% -2.6 45% 50% -10.6
02.03.24 Sao Caetano vs Marilia AC 2-0 17% 26% -33.0 24% 30% -19.4 58% 56% 5.1
02.03.24 SE Itapirense vs SE Matonense 4-0 86% 88% -2.4 10% 14% -32.5 5% 7% -35.7
02.03.24 Uniao Suzano AC vs Red Bull Brasil 1-1 41% 44% -7.2 29% 29% -2.3 30% 38% -21.9
03.03.24 Rio Preto EC vs Gremio Prudente 1-2 16% 24% -33.7 24% 31% -21.0 60% 57% 4.2
08.03.24 EC Sao Bernardo vs Marilia AC 2-2 37% 42% -11.9 32% 33% -4.7 32% 37% -14.9
09.03.24 Bandeirante EC vs Rio Preto EC 1-3 58% 56% 3.8 26% 32% -20.6 17% 25% -33.2
09.03.24 Sertaozinho FC vs SE Itapirense 1-1 47% 51% -8.6 29% 31% -6.2 24% 30% -21.5
09.03.24 Uniao Sao Joao EC SP vs Uniao Suzano AC 1-0 33% 39% -14.6 30% 31% -2.4 36% 42% -13.6
13.03.24 Desportivo Brasil vs CA Votuporanguense 0-1 40% 42% -4.2 32% 36% -9.4 28% 36% -22.3
13.03.24 EC Lemense vs Sertaozinho FC 0-0 49% 51% -5.0 28% 31% -7.6 23% 30% -24.6
13.03.24 EC Sao Bernardo vs Rio Preto EC 2-1 71% 69% 2.8 19% 27% -30.2 10% 15% -36.4
13.03.24 SE Itapirense vs Bandeirante EC 1-1 32% 39% -18.7 32% 34% -6.3 36% 38% -6.9
13.03.24 Uniao Suzano AC vs Catanduva FC 1-0 31% 35% -11.2 31% 32% -3.9 38% 45% -16.7
14.03.24 Marilia AC vs Red Bull Brasil 0-1 66% 64% 2.9 21% 28% -23.3 13% 20% -34.4
14.03.24 Sao Caetano vs Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 1-3 42% 49% -13.0 31% 32% -4.3 27% 31% -14.6
16.03.24 Bandeirante EC vs EC Sao Bernardo 1-1 18% 26% -28.3 27% 31% -12.9 54% 56% -2.1
16.03.24 CA Votuporanguense vs EC Lemense 3-1 70% 68% 2.2 20% 27% -26.2 11% 17% -35.1
16.03.24 Catanduva FC vs Marilia AC 1-1 34% 40% -15.9 32% 34% -5.7 34% 39% -12.2
16.03.24 SE Itapirense vs Sao Caetano 1-1 45% 49% -7.2 31% 33% -7.0 24% 29% -19.3
16.03.24 Sertaozinho FC vs Desportivo Brasil 2-1 31% 42% -24.5 31% 33% -7.2 38% 38% -0.4
23.03.24 EC Sao Bernardo vs Red Bull Brasil 0-1 56% 53% 5.5 25% 31% -19.7 18% 28% -33.4
23.03.24 Marilia AC vs CA Votuporanguense 0-0 52% 53% -3.4 29% 33% -11.6 19% 25% -24.6
23.03.24 Uniao Suzano AC vs SE Itapirense 0-0 70% 70% -0.3 19% 25% -23.0 11% 16% -34.2
18.01.25 EC Lemense vs Comercial FC 0-0 19% 27% -28.3 26% 29% -11.0 55% 56% -2.6
18.01.25 Rio Branco/SP vs EC Sao Bernardo 3-1 49% 51% -2.5 29% 32% -10.2 22% 29% -25.8
18.01.25 Rio Preto EC vs Catanduva FC 3-0 25% 33% -25.7 31% 34% -10.7 44% 44% -0.0
18.01.25 SE Itapirense vs Monte Azul 1-2 25% 35% -28.7 30% 34% -12.5 46% 43% 4.7
18.01.25 Uniao Suzano AC vs Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 1-1 23% 32% -27.6 28% 31% -10.0 49% 49% -0.5
19.01.25 AA Francana SP vs Sertaozinho FC 1-1 34% 38% -9.6 32% 34% -5.5 34% 41% -17.1
19.01.25 Bandeirante EC vs Marilia AC 2-1 22% 30% -28.6 29% 34% -13.7 49% 48% 3.2
22.01.25 Catanduva FC vs Bandeirante EC 2-0 72% 73% -1.3 19% 26% -24.3 9% 13% -34.0
22.01.25 Comercial FC vs Uniao Suzano AC 0-1 64% 60% 6.8 21% 29% -27.6 15% 24% -36.4
22.01.25 EC Sao Bernardo vs AA Francana SP 1-1 65% 65% 0.2 23% 29% -19.5 12% 18% -31.9
22.01.25 Monte Azul vs Rio Branco/SP 1-1 43% 47% -7.1 31% 33% -7.7 26% 33% -21.9
22.01.25 Sertaozinho FC vs EC Lemense 1-0 63% 62% 1.2 23% 29% -20.6 14% 22% -33.6
22.01.25 Uniao Sao Joao EC SP vs EC XV de Novembro Jau SP 0-0 40% 49% -17.7 30% 31% -2.5 29% 32% -8.9
23.01.25 Desportivo Brasil vs Rio Preto EC 0-1 58% 56% 3.5 25% 31% -18.4 17% 25% -32.0
25.01.25 EC Lemense vs Uniao Suzano AC 1-1 46% 49% -4.7 29% 31% -7.1 24% 32% -24.1
25.01.25 Marilia AC vs Comercial FC 2-0 50% 49% 2.9 29% 35% -16.1 21% 29% -30.0
25.01.25 Sertaozinho FC vs Catanduva FC 0-1 31% 39% -21.8 33% 36% -9.0 36% 37% -2.1
25.01.25 Uniao Sao Joao EC SP vs SE Itapirense 0-1 54% 54% -0.4 28% 33% -15.1 18% 25% -28.6
26.01.25 AA Francana SP vs Bandeirante EC 4-2 43% 48% -9.9 32% 34% -7.1 26% 31% -18.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 337 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

15 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Marilia AC 1678.79
2 EC Sao Bernardo 1671.22
3 Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 1660.36
4 EC Lemense 1638.81
5 Comercial FC 1632.15
6 Catanduva FC 1624.43
7 EC XV de Novembro Jau SP 1615.55
8 Rio Preto EC 1592.75
9 Monte Azul 1571.45
10 Bandeirante EC 1520.50
11 Rio Branco/SP 1495.03
12 AA Francana SP 1461.67
13 Uniao Suzano AC 1452.48
14 Desportivo Brasil 1447.64
15 SE Itapirense 1438.83

Away Ratings

15 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 EC Sao Bernardo 1604.65
2 Comercial FC 1576.98
3 Catanduva FC 1569.04
4 EC Lemense 1566.17
5 Uniao Sao Joao EC SP 1559.61
6 Bandeirante EC 1544.66
7 Marilia AC 1539.77
8 EC XV de Novembro Jau SP 1538.29
9 Monte Azul 1518.83
10 Rio Preto EC 1506.88
11 Rio Branco/SP 1479.25
12 Desportivo Brasil 1409.83
13 SE Itapirense 1367.31
14 AA Francana SP 1355.54
15 Uniao Suzano AC 1309.87