ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 128
Avg Goals 2.52
Avg Home 1.51
Avg Away 1.02
Home Win % 48.4%
Draw % 21.9%
Away Win % 29.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 128
Avg Brier Score 0.5049
Pick Accuracy 62.5%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5139
Market Brier 0.5074
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 128 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit -1.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 7.3% 6.2% 32
10–20% 15.3% 15.0% 80
20–30% 25.6% 21.8% 124
30–40% 34.5% 30.3% 33
40–50% 44.5% 54.8% 31
50–60% 55.5% 55.0% 20
60–70% 65.2% 72.7% 33
70–80% 73.7% 71.4% 21
80–90% 84.4% 100.0% 10
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
10.01.24 Retro FC Brasil vs CA Porto PE 4-0 81% 86% -5.8 13% 17% -19.8 5% 7% -23.4
12.01.24 Santa Cruz vs AA Maguary 2-0 63% 66% -3.6 23% 28% -18.9 14% 18% -22.7
13.01.24 Petrolina Social FC vs Sport Recife 0-1 7% 9% -19.3 15% 17% -16.2 78% 84% -6.7
14.01.24 Nautico vs Flamengo Arcoverde 2-0 85% 90% -5.4 10% 12% -18.8 5% 6% -25.9
17.01.24 AA Maguary vs Petrolina Social FC 1-1 47% 49% -4.0 28% 33% -16.4 25% 31% -19.0
17.01.24 Sport Recife vs Retro FC Brasil 2-4 56% 57% -2.6 25% 29% -16.1 20% 25% -21.3
18.01.24 Santa Cruz vs Flamengo Arcoverde 1-0 84% 88% -5.4 11% 14% -19.7 5% 7% -26.5
20.01.24 Sport Recife vs Santa Cruz 2-1 64% 65% -2.7 22% 28% -20.3 14% 19% -25.2
21.01.24 Nautico vs AA Maguary 0-0 73% 78% -5.6 18% 22% -18.5 9% 12% -22.4
21.01.24 Retro FC Brasil vs Petrolina Social FC 0-1 71% 72% -1.7 18% 24% -22.9 11% 15% -28.8
24.01.24 Central SC Caruaru vs Nautico 2-2 33% 36% -7.1 29% 33% -13.4 38% 43% -12.7
26.01.24 AA Maguary vs Sport Recife 0-1 12% 14% -18.7 20% 24% -16.6 69% 73% -6.1
27.01.24 Santa Cruz vs Nautico 1-2 40% 44% -9.2 29% 33% -14.3 31% 36% -12.9
28.01.24 AA Maguary vs CA Porto PE 3-1 58% 60% -2.9 25% 30% -18.8 17% 22% -22.3
28.01.24 Retro FC Brasil vs Central SC Caruaru 2-0 63% 65% -2.9 22% 26% -17.8 16% 21% -24.4
30.01.24 Sport Recife vs Afogados 2-0 87% 91% -4.7 10% 12% -23.1 4% 5% -28.0
31.01.24 CA Porto PE vs Santa Cruz 1-3 16% 19% -17.5 22% 25% -13.6 63% 67% -6.6
01.02.24 Afogados vs Retro FC Brasil 0-1 16% 20% -20.2 22% 26% -16.0 62% 65% -5.2
01.02.24 Nautico vs Petrolina Social FC 1-0 77% 82% -5.6 17% 22% -21.2 5% 7% -17.6
02.02.24 Flamengo Arcoverde vs Sport Recife 0-3 6% 9% -26.5 11% 14% -18.7 82% 87% -5.2
04.02.24 Central SC Caruaru vs AA Maguary 0-0 57% 58% -2.0 25% 30% -18.5 19% 24% -23.5
06.02.24 Petrolina Social FC vs Santa Cruz 1-2 22% 24% -11.7 29% 35% -16.8 49% 53% -7.0
07.02.24 Nautico vs CA Porto PE 3-0 83% 87% -4.9 12% 15% -22.3 5% 7% -27.6
07.02.24 Sport Recife vs Central SC Caruaru 4-1 68% 71% -4.2 19% 24% -19.3 12% 17% -25.8
08.02.24 Retro FC Brasil vs AA Maguary 0-0 67% 68% -0.8 21% 27% -23.7 12% 17% -28.5
16.02.24 Santa Cruz vs Retro FC Brasil 0-0 41% 43% -6.1 28% 32% -13.4 31% 37% -15.7
17.02.24 Sport Recife vs CA Porto PE 1-0 89% 93% -4.3 8% 11% -25.4 3% 4% -29.3
18.02.24 AA Maguary vs Flamengo Arcoverde 6-2 64% 66% -2.7 22% 27% -19.4 14% 18% -24.2
18.02.24 Retro FC Brasil vs Nautico 1-0 35% 37% -5.5 29% 34% -14.0 36% 42% -14.0
20.02.24 Santa Cruz vs Afogados 5-1 72% 76% -5.1 18% 22% -18.3 10% 13% -23.0
24.02.24 Afogados vs AA Maguary 3-2 38% 40% -5.0 28% 32% -12.8 34% 40% -15.2
24.02.24 Central SC Caruaru vs Santa Cruz 0-1 30% 32% -6.9 28% 32% -12.6 42% 48% -12.3
24.02.24 Flamengo Arcoverde vs Retro FC Brasil 0-4 3% 4% -11.3 12% 15% -18.2 84% 90% -6.2
24.02.24 Nautico vs Sport Recife 1-0 41% 47% -12.2 29% 34% -14.0 30% 32% -7.0
02.03.24 Nautico vs Afogados 2-0 75% 79% -5.3 17% 22% -20.9 8% 10% -23.4
02.03.24 Santa Cruz vs Central SC Caruaru 1-0 66% 70% -5.4 22% 26% -18.0 12% 15% -20.2
09.03.24 Santa Cruz vs Sport Recife 1-1 26% 28% -8.1 28% 32% -13.6 47% 53% -11.5
10.03.24 Nautico vs Retro FC Brasil 1-0 48% 51% -4.1 28% 34% -16.3 23% 28% -16.5
16.03.24 Sport Recife vs Santa Cruz 0-0 65% 67% -3.4 22% 27% -18.5 13% 17% -22.7
17.03.24 Retro FC Brasil vs Nautico 1-0 38% 43% -10.5 31% 36% -15.3 31% 33% -6.7
30.03.24 Nautico vs Sport Recife 0-2 39% 42% -7.2 29% 33% -13.8 33% 38% -13.6
11.01.25 Afogados vs Sport Recife 1-1 39% 54% -27.8 26% 30% -15.1 35% 29% 23.4
11.01.25 Decisao PE vs Santa Cruz 1-1 13% 17% -26.0 21% 27% -22.0 66% 67% -1.6
11.01.25 Nautico vs Petrolina Social FC 1-1 74% 79% -6.3 17% 21% -17.8 9% 11% -21.3
12.01.25 Central SC Caruaru vs ADJG Jaguar PE 0-0 54% 58% -7.5 26% 29% -13.3 20% 24% -14.2
12.01.25 Retro FC Brasil vs AA Maguary 1-3 71% 75% -5.2 19% 23% -18.8 10% 13% -22.6
15.01.25 Retro FC Brasil vs Afogados 1-0 57% 62% -8.1 25% 29% -13.6 17% 19% -10.2
15.01.25 Sport Recife vs Decisao PE 1-1 59% 56% 5.6 24% 31% -24.4 17% 24% -30.2
16.01.25 AA Maguary vs Central SC Caruaru 1-0 41% 43% -6.2 30% 35% -15.2 29% 34% -13.1
16.01.25 Nautico vs ADJG Jaguar PE 3-2 73% 79% -7.0 18% 21% -15.3 9% 11% -17.4
17.01.25 Santa Cruz vs Petrolina Social FC 2-0 68% 73% -7.1 21% 24% -15.3 12% 14% -16.5
18.01.25 Sport Recife vs Retro FC Brasil 1-1 24% 24% -0.8 25% 27% -7.9 52% 62% -16.1
19.01.25 Central SC Caruaru vs Nautico 2-1 26% 30% -12.7 28% 33% -14.7 45% 49% -7.6
19.01.25 Santa Cruz vs Afogados 2-0 58% 66% -12.9 25% 28% -11.0 18% 18% -3.1
21.01.25 Petrolina Social FC vs AA Maguary 0-1 28% 28% 0.9 32% 38% -16.2 40% 45% -12.6
25.01.25 Nautico vs Santa Cruz 2-1 44% 47% -5.5 29% 34% -15.3 27% 31% -14.2
25.01.25 Retro FC Brasil vs ADJG Jaguar PE 1-1 74% 77% -4.1 18% 22% -20.8 9% 11% -24.6
26.01.25 Central SC Caruaru vs Sport Recife 0-1 28% 29% -0.3 27% 31% -11.4 44% 53% -16.8
29.01.25 Santa Cruz vs Retro FC Brasil 1-0 45% 49% -7.5 28% 33% -14.5 26% 30% -13.0
30.01.25 Decisao PE vs Petrolina Social FC 3-0 49% 49% 1.0 28% 35% -19.4 23% 29% -23.0
30.01.25 Sport Recife vs ADJG Jaguar PE 4-1 76% 81% -6.3 17% 20% -17.4 8% 10% -20.7
31.01.25 Nautico vs AA Maguary 2-0 61% 63% -3.2 24% 29% -20.0 15% 20% -23.9
01.02.25 Santa Cruz vs Sport Recife 1-0 27% 25% 6.9 28% 32% -12.3 45% 55% -17.7
02.02.25 AA Maguary vs Decisao PE 5-0 66% 71% -6.3 21% 25% -16.8 13% 16% -20.5
02.02.25 Retro FC Brasil vs Nautico 1-0 41% 42% -1.6 30% 35% -15.9 29% 36% -17.5
05.02.25 Decisao PE vs Afogados 1-1 38% 42% -10.4 29% 33% -13.5 33% 37% -9.9
08.02.25 ADJG Jaguar PE vs Santa Cruz 0-4 10% 12% -13.0 21% 25% -16.6 69% 74% -7.0
08.02.25 Sport Recife vs AA Maguary 5-0 70% 74% -4.8 19% 24% -19.2 10% 13% -22.8
09.02.25 Nautico vs Afogados 4-0 70% 75% -6.4 20% 24% -17.2 10% 12% -18.2
09.02.25 Petrolina Social FC vs Retro FC Brasil 0-1 14% 17% -13.9 24% 29% -17.2 61% 66% -7.5
11.02.25 Central SC Caruaru vs Decisao PE 1-2 58% 61% -5.2 25% 30% -16.7 17% 20% -17.1
12.02.25 AA Maguary vs ADJG Jaguar PE 2-1 70% 72% -3.7 18% 23% -19.1 12% 16% -26.1
15.02.25 Afogados vs AA Maguary 1-1 30% 33% -8.5 28% 32% -12.6 41% 47% -11.2
15.02.25 Sport Recife vs Nautico 1-2 60% 64% -5.4 25% 29% -16.6 15% 18% -16.5
16.02.25 Retro FC Brasil vs Decisao PE 1-1 69% 70% -2.0 20% 26% -23.0 11% 15% -27.3
16.02.25 Santa Cruz vs Central SC Caruaru 2-1 69% 74% -6.2 21% 25% -17.4 10% 12% -17.4
17.02.25 ADJG Jaguar PE vs Petrolina Social FC 2-1 43% 47% -7.4 27% 31% -12.1 29% 34% -13.1
22.02.25 AA Maguary vs Santa Cruz 0-0 27% 29% -6.2 28% 32% -13.1 45% 52% -12.8
22.02.25 ADJG Jaguar PE vs Afogados 1-0 56% 64% -12.3 24% 26% -8.9 20% 22% -7.2
22.02.25 Central SC Caruaru vs Retro FC Brasil 3-1 28% 32% -12.8 28% 32% -13.4 44% 48% -7.8
22.02.25 Decisao PE vs Nautico 1-0 17% 21% -18.4 24% 29% -17.0 59% 62% -5.1
22.02.25 Petrolina Social FC vs Sport Recife 1-3 6% 8% -25.5 17% 23% -25.6 77% 80% -3.6
02.03.25 Sport Recife vs Decisao PE 3-0 85% 88% -3.2 11% 15% -27.7 4% 6% -31.6
03.03.25 Nautico vs Retro FC Brasil 0-0 49% 52% -6.2 27% 31% -13.5 24% 29% -14.7
08.03.25 Sport Recife vs Santa Cruz 2-0 63% 64% -1.8 25% 32% -22.4 12% 16% -22.4
09.03.25 Retro FC Brasil vs AA Maguary 2-1 61% 62% -2.4 24% 30% -20.4 15% 20% -23.6
15.03.25 Santa Cruz vs Sport Recife 0-1 24% 27% -9.7 30% 35% -15.9 46% 51% -8.1
16.03.25 AA Maguary vs Retro FC Brasil 1-2 29% 31% -7.8 30% 35% -14.3 41% 45% -9.1
22.03.25 Retro FC Brasil vs Sport Recife 2-3 20% 22% -9.8 27% 32% -15.4 53% 58% -9.4
03.04.25 Sport Recife vs Retro FC Brasil 1-2 66% 68% -4.0 20% 24% -16.7 14% 19% -24.4
09.01.26 Retro FC Brasil vs AAD Vitoria Tabocas PE 4-0 60% 66% -10.1 24% 28% -13.1 16% 18% -10.3
10.01.26 ADJG Jaguar PE vs Sport Recife 2-2 37% 45% -18.5 28% 32% -12.8 35% 34% 2.8
10.01.26 Nautico vs AA Maguary 2-0 64% 67% -4.6 22% 27% -17.7 14% 17% -20.9
11.01.26 Santa Cruz vs Decisao PE 3-0 69% 71% -2.7 20% 26% -21.8 11% 15% -26.0
14.01.26 AA Maguary vs Santa Cruz 1-1 29% 31% -8.8 30% 35% -14.9 42% 47% -10.0
14.01.26 AAD Vitoria Tabocas PE vs ADJG Jaguar PE 1-1 40% 44% -10.3 30% 36% -15.1 30% 32% -7.6
14.01.26 Decisao PE vs Nautico 1-2 9% 10% -7.3 19% 23% -14.4 72% 78% -8.2
15.01.26 Sport Recife vs Retro FC Brasil 2-0 19% 17% 7.2 23% 24% -5.7 58% 70% -16.6
17.01.26 Decisao PE vs ADJG Jaguar PE 2-0 45% 49% -8.7 28% 32% -13.0 27% 31% -11.0
17.01.26 Santa Cruz vs AAD Vitoria Tabocas PE 1-0 71% 74% -2.8 19% 24% -23.6 10% 14% -28.1
Showing the 100 most recent of 128 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Sport Recife 1783.63
2 Nautico 1772.14
3 Santa Cruz 1749.66
4 Retro FC Brasil 1689.13
5 AA Maguary 1666.82
6 Decisao PE 1473.09
7 ADJG Jaguar PE 1436.23
8 Vitoria das Tabocas 1364.33

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Sport Recife 1757.18
2 Santa Cruz 1686.31
3 Nautico 1617.20
4 AA Maguary 1579.07
5 Retro FC Brasil 1570.92
6 ADJG Jaguar PE 1364.20
7 Decisao PE 1357.66
8 Vitoria das Tabocas 1238.12