ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 59
Avg Goals 2.34
Avg Home 1.29
Avg Away 1.05
Home Win % 42.4%
Draw % 27.1%
Away Win % 30.5%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 59
Avg Brier Score 0.6046
Pick Accuracy 45.8%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6028
Market Brier 0.6072
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 0
Value Bet Hit Rate -
ROI (flat stake) -
ROI Trustworthy? No
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 0 of 59 matches had at least one · staked 0.00, profit 0.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 9.4% 0.0% 2
10–20% 16.4% 25.0% 8
20–30% 26.3% 18.2% 66
30–40% 33.2% 37.7% 61
40–50% 44.9% 44.0% 25
50–60% 53.2% 70.0% 10
60–70% 64.7% 100.0% 4
70–80% 73.0% 0.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
14.01.24 AA Corisaba PI vs AA Oeirense PI 0-1 21% 23% -9.3 28% 29% -6.4 52% 60% -12.9
14.01.24 Parnahyba SC vs Fluminense EC 1-0 33% 36% -8.7 31% 35% -10.1 35% 41% -13.1
17.01.24 IV de Julho vs AE Altos 0-1 12% 12% 1.1 24% 25% -3.8 64% 74% -14.0
20.01.24 AE Altos vs River AC 0-3 38% 43% -13.2 30% 32% -8.4 33% 37% -11.7
21.01.24 AA Corisaba PI vs Fluminense EC 1-2 21% 25% -14.8 27% 29% -7.5 51% 58% -10.9
27.01.24 AE Altos vs SE Picos 1-1 73% 81% -10.3 18% 19% -5.5 9% 10% -9.4
28.01.24 Fluminense EC vs AA Oeirense PI 0-1 47% 52% -9.6 29% 32% -10.6 24% 29% -14.8
28.01.24 Parnahyba SC vs AA Corisaba PI 3-0 57% 62% -9.5 26% 29% -10.2 18% 21% -14.7
31.01.24 AE Altos vs IV de Julho 2-1 69% 74% -5.7 21% 25% -16.3 10% 12% -19.4
03.02.24 Fluminense EC vs Parnahyba SC 1-1 40% 44% -9.9 31% 35% -11.1 29% 33% -13.0
07.02.24 River AC vs AE Altos 0-2 47% 58% -18.6 28% 29% -5.3 25% 25% 0.3
08.02.24 Fluminense EC vs AA Corisaba PI 4-0 64% 71% -10.1 22% 24% -7.6 14% 17% -14.4
09.02.24 Parnahyba SC vs AA Oeirense PI 1-0 37% 40% -6.3 30% 34% -10.3 32% 38% -16.5
25.02.24 Fluminense EC vs AE Altos 0-3 30% 36% -15.3 31% 35% -10.7 39% 42% -8.4
29.02.24 AE Altos vs Fluminense EC 2-1 49% 55% -11.7 28% 31% -8.8 23% 27% -12.1
10.03.24 AE Altos vs AA Oeirense PI 0-0 50% 55% -8.0 28% 32% -12.2 21% 26% -16.4
11.01.25 Clube Atletico Piauiense PI vs River AC 2-1 41% 49% -16.5 30% 33% -9.3 29% 31% -5.5
11.01.25 IV de Julho vs Piaui EC 3-4 14% 16% -13.1 24% 26% -6.8 62% 69% -10.4
12.01.25 AE Altos vs Fluminense EC 1-0 44% 50% -12.7 29% 32% -9.0 27% 30% -10.9
18.01.25 River AC vs AE Altos 0-3 36% 40% -9.2 30% 32% -8.3 34% 40% -14.8
19.01.25 Fluminense EC vs Clube Atletico Piauiense PI 1-0 23% 26% -13.3 29% 32% -9.6 48% 54% -11.2
25.01.25 Fluminense EC vs River AC 4-1 45% 54% -16.0 29% 31% -7.2 26% 28% -6.3
26.01.25 AA Oeirense PI vs Piaui EC 0-1 37% 43% -14.6 31% 34% -9.5 32% 35% -8.2
27.01.25 AE Altos vs Clube Atletico Piauiense PI 1-1 44% 53% -17.7 30% 32% -8.4 26% 27% -2.2
31.01.25 Fluminense EC vs AE Altos 0-0 32% 38% -17.9 30% 33% -10.0 38% 42% -7.8
01.02.25 Piaui EC vs IV de Julho 1-1 53% 58% -9.0 24% 26% -6.1 23% 29% -19.4
03.02.25 River AC vs Clube Atletico Piauiense PI 1-1 27% 31% -14.7 28% 31% -7.5 45% 51% -11.1
08.02.25 AE Altos vs River AC 1-0 49% 56% -11.3 27% 29% -6.6 24% 28% -13.5
09.02.25 Clube Atletico Piauiense PI vs Fluminense EC 1-1 32% 34% -4.5 31% 34% -10.5 37% 44% -17.3
09.02.25 IV de Julho vs AA Oeirense PI 1-2 32% 39% -17.9 31% 34% -9.9 37% 39% -5.0
15.02.25 Clube Atletico Piauiense PI vs AE Altos 2-2 39% 42% -7.9 31% 35% -11.3 30% 36% -15.4
15.02.25 Piaui EC vs AA Oeirense PI 0-0 36% 41% -11.4 30% 33% -9.2 34% 38% -12.7
17.02.25 River AC vs Fluminense EC 1-1 27% 29% -6.9 30% 32% -8.4 43% 51% -16.1
22.02.25 IV de Julho vs AE Altos 1-0 20% 24% -17.2 27% 29% -8.9 53% 59% -9.1
22.02.25 River AC vs Piaui EC 1-0 44% 48% -6.8 28% 31% -9.6 28% 34% -19.3
28.02.25 Fluminense EC vs AA Oeirense PI 1-3 50% 54% -8.1 29% 32% -11.5 22% 26% -15.1
01.03.25 Piaui EC vs River AC 2-0 30% 33% -9.7 30% 32% -7.9 40% 47% -13.6
02.03.25 AE Altos vs IV de Julho 4-0 56% 61% -7.9 27% 30% -12.2 18% 21% -15.7
09.03.25 Fluminense EC vs AE Altos 1-0 31% 31% -0.7 31% 35% -11.1 38% 47% -18.8
16.03.25 AE Altos vs Fluminense EC 3-2 46% 51% -8.9 30% 33% -11.3 24% 29% -14.5
22.03.25 Fluminense EC vs Piaui EC 2-2 44% 48% -7.1 31% 36% -12.7 25% 29% -13.9
29.03.25 Piaui EC vs Fluminense EC 2-0 38% 44% -14.0 31% 35% -10.5 31% 33% -8.2
10.01.26 AA Oeirense PI vs Fluminense EC 1-2 20% 22% -7.2 28% 30% -7.4 52% 60% -14.1
10.01.26 Piaui EC vs AE Altos 0-1 24% 29% -17.8 31% 35% -12.2 45% 48% -5.5
17.01.26 Fluminense EC vs Piaui EC 1-2 36% 39% -7.7 31% 34% -9.9 33% 39% -15.2
18.01.26 Teresina EC PI vs AE Altos 1-1 26% 30% -15.2 29% 32% -9.2 45% 50% -10.0
23.01.26 Teresina EC PI vs AA Oeirense PI 1-0 48% 51% -5.9 30% 35% -13.6 22% 26% -15.8
24.01.26 AE Altos vs Fluminense EC 2-2 48% 51% -5.9 29% 33% -13.0 23% 28% -18.1
31.01.26 Clube Atletico Piauiense PI vs Piaui EC 4-1 43% 47% -8.2 29% 32% -9.5 28% 33% -15.7
07.02.26 AE Altos vs Clube Atletico Piauiense PI 0-0 40% 43% -5.9 33% 38% -13.8 27% 32% -15.0
08.02.26 Teresina EC PI vs Piaui EC 0-2 39% 44% -12.2 30% 34% -10.3 31% 35% -12.3
11.02.26 Clube Atletico Piauiense PI vs Teresina EC PI 1-0 56% 62% -10.4 26% 29% -10.2 18% 20% -11.9
22.02.26 Fluminense EC vs Clube Atletico Piauiense PI 1-3 37% 43% -12.2 30% 32% -7.9 33% 37% -11.1
28.02.26 Fluminense EC vs Piaui EC 1-2 37% 40% -7.7 30% 33% -9.7 33% 39% -15.9
02.03.26 AE Altos vs Clube Atletico Piauiense PI 0-0 32% 36% -11.5 32% 36% -10.8 37% 41% -10.4
07.03.26 Clube Atletico Piauiense PI vs AE Altos 2-1 45% 51% -11.5 29% 32% -9.9 26% 30% -13.5
14.03.26 Piaui EC vs Fluminense EC 3-1 40% 44% -11.0 30% 33% -9.8 30% 35% -13.4
18.03.26 Piaui EC vs Clube Atletico Piauiense PI 1-0 29% 34% -14.3 29% 31% -7.7 42% 48% -11.6
21.03.26 Clube Atletico Piauiense PI vs Piaui EC 4-1 52% 58% -10.7 27% 30% -9.4 20% 23% -11.8

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 AE Altos 1685.66
2 Clube Atletico Piauiense PI 1684.05
3 Piaui EC 1580.48
4 Teresina EC PI 1573.00
5 Fluminense EC 1565.56
6 Parnahyba SC 1478.68
7 AA Oeirense PI 1427.31
8 AA Corisaba PI 1358.84

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Clube Atletico Piauiense PI 1646.93
2 AE Altos 1514.58
3 Piaui EC 1502.94
4 Parnahyba SC 1494.56
5 Teresina EC PI 1472.12
6 AA Oeirense PI 1456.16
7 Fluminense EC 1436.26
8 AA Corisaba PI 1298.91