ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 106
Avg Goals 2.63
Avg Home 1.53
Avg Away 1.10
Home Win % 40.6%
Draw % 30.2%
Away Win % 29.2%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
No rows yet Rows will be created automatically from the league size.
Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 106
Avg Brier Score 0.5659
Pick Accuracy 55.7%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5676
Market Brier 0.5624
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 1
Value Bet Hit Rate 100.0%
ROI (flat stake) 180.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 100.0% of value bets are on 'home' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 1 of 106 matches had at least one · staked 1.00, profit 1.80 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 100.0% 1.00 1.80 180.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.4% 7.3% 41
10–20% 15.6% 18.8% 64
20–30% 25.2% 27.8% 90
30–40% 34.5% 30.8% 26
40–50% 43.9% 55.6% 18
50–60% 55.2% 50.0% 24
60–70% 64.4% 61.9% 21
70–80% 74.7% 66.7% 21
80–90% 85.3% 77.8% 9
90–100% 92.6% 50.0% 4
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
06.08.23 Globo FC vs Alecrim FC 2-2 51% 53% -3.3 27% 31% -13.8 22% 28% -22.1
11.01.24 America-RN vs Santa Cruz RN 0-0 75% 76% -1.9 17% 23% -24.5 8% 12% -32.0
11.01.24 Baraunas RN vs CE Forca e Luz 2-0 73% 81% -9.1 18% 19% -6.8 9% 11% -15.5
11.01.24 Potyguar Seridoense vs Globo FC 4-0 64% 68% -6.0 23% 27% -14.0 13% 16% -19.9
18.01.24 ABC vs CE Forca e Luz 6-0 89% 95% -6.3 7% 8% -11.2 3% 5% -28.6
18.01.24 America-RN vs Potyguar Seridoense 1-0 72% 74% -2.3 19% 24% -22.1 10% 14% -30.6
18.01.24 Potiguar de Mossoro vs Baraunas RN 1-2 59% 59% -0.1 23% 27% -16.6 19% 26% -29.1
18.01.24 Santa Cruz RN vs Globo FC 1-1 74% 79% -6.3 17% 20% -14.2 9% 12% -25.4
20.01.24 CE Forca e Luz vs ABC 1-1 2% 2% -24.1 6% 7% -16.3 92% 98% -5.8
21.01.24 Baraunas RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 1-2 31% 32% -3.5 28% 31% -8.7 41% 49% -16.4
21.01.24 Globo FC vs Santa Cruz RN 0-2 21% 24% -15.7 25% 29% -11.5 54% 60% -9.0
21.01.24 Potyguar Seridoense vs America-RN 0-1 18% 21% -11.8 26% 30% -12.9 55% 61% -10.0
25.01.24 America-RN vs Globo FC 4-0 87% 92% -4.9 9% 12% -23.5 4% 6% -32.3
25.01.24 Baraunas RN vs ABC 0-2 19% 21% -8.7 26% 29% -10.9 55% 62% -11.6
26.01.24 Potiguar de Mossoro vs CE Forca e Luz 3-0 82% 84% -2.2 13% 19% -29.4 4% 7% -33.9
26.01.24 Potyguar Seridoense vs Santa Cruz RN 0-1 50% 53% -5.6 27% 30% -11.6 23% 29% -19.5
28.01.24 Potiguar de Mossoro vs ABC 2-3 26% 25% 3.4 26% 27% -5.1 49% 60% -19.5
29.01.24 Globo FC vs America-RN 0-7 2% 3% -21.8 6% 7% -10.5 92% 97% -5.7
31.01.24 CE Forca e Luz vs Potiguar de Mossoro 2-1 3% 3% -19.1 10% 11% -16.6 88% 93% -6.2
01.02.24 ABC vs Baraunas RN 1-0 78% 83% -5.0 14% 17% -15.9 8% 11% -28.6
01.02.24 Santa Cruz RN vs Potyguar Seridoense 4-0 47% 51% -7.0 27% 30% -10.1 26% 31% -17.4
06.02.24 Globo FC vs Potyguar Seridoense 2-1 11% 13% -15.4 17% 17% -4.8 73% 80% -9.3
08.02.24 ABC vs Potiguar de Mossoro 1-0 65% 66% -1.7 21% 26% -17.8 14% 20% -28.8
08.02.24 Santa Cruz RN vs America-RN 2-2 20% 22% -7.9 26% 29% -10.3 53% 61% -12.3
24.02.24 ABC vs Santa Cruz RN 2-2 65% 66% -1.2 22% 27% -19.9 13% 18% -29.1
25.02.24 America-RN vs Baraunas RN 3-0 75% 78% -3.2 17% 22% -21.9 8% 11% -30.3
03.03.24 America-RN vs ABC 0-0 46% 45% 1.4 28% 33% -15.6 26% 34% -25.3
09.03.24 ABC vs Potyguar Seridoense 2-2 79% 84% -6.4 15% 17% -14.7 7% 9% -25.1
09.03.24 Santa Cruz RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 2-3 44% 47% -4.4 28% 31% -11.6 28% 35% -20.5
10.03.24 Baraunas RN vs America-RN 0-0 14% 16% -12.7 22% 24% -9.5 64% 71% -9.7
16.03.24 Potiguar de Mossoro vs Globo FC 1-0 80% 83% -3.6 13% 17% -24.0 7% 11% -33.3
16.03.24 Potyguar Seridoense vs Baraunas RN 2-4 38% 39% -3.1 28% 31% -9.9 34% 42% -18.8
17.03.24 America-RN vs ABC 0-0 48% 48% -0.1 29% 34% -15.3 24% 31% -22.9
28.03.24 Globo FC vs Baraunas RN 0-4 23% 26% -14.1 26% 29% -10.0 52% 57% -9.6
11.01.25 America-RN vs Baraunas RN 5-0 74% 76% -3.7 18% 23% -20.4 8% 12% -28.7
11.01.25 Santa Cruz RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 0-2 51% 56% -8.5 27% 31% -11.2 21% 25% -14.8
12.01.25 ABC vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 1-1 72% 78% -7.5 20% 23% -13.7 9% 11% -19.4
12.01.25 Globo FC vs CE Forca e Luz 2-1 40% 36% 12.8 26% 29% -12.5 34% 48% -28.7
15.01.25 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs CE Forca e Luz 1-1 67% 67% 0.6 20% 26% -23.6 13% 20% -33.2
15.01.25 Globo FC vs America-RN 1-2 3% 3% -25.2 7% 9% -17.9 90% 95% -5.5
15.01.25 Santa Cruz RN vs Baraunas RN 4-2 60% 63% -5.2 24% 29% -15.5 16% 21% -24.0
16.01.25 Potiguar de Mossoro vs ABC 0-3 17% 19% -8.4 25% 27% -9.3 58% 65% -11.2
18.01.25 ABC vs Santa Cruz RN 3-0 65% 68% -4.8 23% 27% -16.4 13% 17% -24.2
18.01.25 America-RN vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 0-0 81% 84% -3.9 14% 18% -24.2 5% 8% -31.6
18.01.25 CE Forca e Luz vs Potiguar de Mossoro 0-2 28% 31% -9.0 28% 31% -9.4 44% 50% -12.6
19.01.25 Baraunas RN vs Globo FC 2-0 55% 51% 7.1 23% 29% -20.4 22% 33% -33.0
25.01.25 ABC vs America-RN 1-0 39% 42% -5.5 34% 41% -16.7 27% 30% -12.1
25.01.25 Santa Cruz RN vs CE Forca e Luz 5-1 73% 75% -1.9 17% 22% -22.9 10% 14% -32.2
26.01.25 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs Globo FC 5-0 60% 59% 2.7 24% 30% -21.9 16% 23% -31.0
26.01.25 Potiguar de Mossoro vs Baraunas RN 2-0 52% 55% -6.1 29% 34% -14.5 19% 23% -15.9
29.01.25 Baraunas RN vs ABC 0-1 6% 7% -17.0 17% 20% -17.1 77% 83% -6.5
29.01.25 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 3-2 43% 47% -7.6 29% 32% -10.9 28% 33% -15.2
29.01.25 Globo FC vs Santa Cruz RN 2-0 13% 14% -6.1 21% 22% -5.5 67% 75% -11.5
30.01.25 America-RN vs CE Forca e Luz 2-0 95% 99% -3.8 4% 5% -27.2 1% 1% -32.5
01.02.25 ABC vs Globo FC 0-0 91% 96% -5.0 6% 9% -29.6 3% 4% -34.5
01.02.25 CE Forca e Luz vs Baraunas RN 1-1 20% 19% 2.6 25% 27% -5.9 55% 66% -15.9
02.02.25 Potiguar de Mossoro vs America-RN 0-1 15% 21% -27.9 21% 26% -19.3 64% 65% -1.6
02.02.25 Santa Cruz RN vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 1-1 47% 45% 2.5 27% 31% -14.0 27% 36% -25.7
08.02.25 America-RN vs Santa Cruz RN 3-0 73% 75% -2.6 18% 23% -21.9 10% 14% -31.1
08.02.25 Baraunas RN vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 1-2 32% 29% 7.3 28% 31% -9.9 40% 52% -22.2
15.02.25 Santa Cruz RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 2-0 53% 53% -1.1 26% 31% -15.4 21% 28% -24.7
16.02.25 Globo FC vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 0-0 17% 17% 2.2 23% 23% -2.3 60% 71% -15.4
22.02.25 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs Globo FC 2-1 68% 68% -0.0 21% 28% -24.3 11% 16% -31.6
23.02.25 Potiguar de Mossoro vs Santa Cruz RN 0-1 40% 43% -5.4 28% 31% -9.5 31% 38% -16.6
08.03.25 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs ABC 0-0 14% 17% -17.0 25% 29% -16.4 62% 65% -5.8
09.03.25 Santa Cruz RN vs America-RN 2-1 17% 19% -12.0 25% 28% -11.4 59% 65% -9.1
15.03.25 America-RN vs Santa Cruz RN 2-0 74% 77% -3.3 17% 22% -21.7 8% 12% -30.1
16.03.25 ABC vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 1-0 68% 68% -0.3 22% 29% -24.4 11% 15% -31.3
22.03.25 America-RN vs ABC 1-1 43% 41% 4.4 36% 45% -20.7 21% 26% -18.9
29.03.25 ABC vs America-RN 0-1 40% 40% -0.5 33% 39% -16.4 27% 33% -17.8
10.01.26 America-RN vs Potyguar Seridoense 4-1 77% 82% -6.5 16% 19% -15.1 7% 10% -24.5
11.01.26 ABC vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 2-0 67% 66% 0.5 20% 27% -23.1 13% 19% -32.2
11.01.26 Globo FC vs Quinho FC RN 0-1 14% 18% -23.2 23% 29% -18.7 63% 65% -3.9
11.01.26 Santa Cruz RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 0-1 41% 40% 2.9 29% 34% -13.8 30% 38% -22.9
14.01.26 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs Quinho FC RN 1-4 36% 37% -3.9 30% 34% -12.2 34% 41% -16.3
14.01.26 Potyguar Seridoense vs Santa Cruz RN 1-3 37% 37% 1.2 30% 34% -12.7 33% 42% -20.9
15.01.26 Potiguar de Mossoro vs ABC 0-2 16% 17% -7.8 28% 32% -14.7 56% 62% -9.7
16.01.26 Globo FC vs America-RN 1-4 5% 7% -29.2 12% 16% -23.8 83% 86% -4.0
17.01.26 ABC vs Santa Cruz RN 5-0 76% 78% -2.2 16% 21% -23.2 8% 12% -31.7
17.01.26 Quinho FC RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 0-0 59% 64% -7.4 25% 29% -12.0 16% 19% -16.6
18.01.26 America-RN vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 4-1 79% 83% -4.8 14% 17% -18.6 7% 10% -30.3
18.01.26 Potyguar Seridoense vs Globo FC 1-0 53% 50% 6.4 25% 31% -19.6 22% 31% -30.7
24.01.26 America-RN vs ABC 0-0 39% 42% -5.4 32% 38% -15.9 28% 33% -15.3
25.01.26 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs Globo FC 5-1 74% 76% -2.1 19% 26% -26.1 7% 10% -31.3
25.01.26 Potiguar de Mossoro vs Potyguar Seridoense 2-0 59% 60% -1.5 25% 31% -18.4 16% 21% -26.1
25.01.26 Santa Cruz RN vs Quinho FC RN 1-4 25% 27% -7.3 28% 31% -10.6 47% 55% -13.3
31.01.26 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 0-1 41% 43% -4.7 29% 33% -12.7 29% 36% -19.0
31.01.26 Quinho FC RN vs America-RN 0-1 14% 16% -10.0 24% 27% -11.3 62% 68% -9.6
01.02.26 Globo FC vs Santa Cruz RN 2-2 20% 21% -5.2 24% 26% -5.9 56% 65% -14.2
04.02.26 Santa Cruz RN vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 3-3 35% 35% -0.4 29% 33% -11.9 36% 44% -19.7
05.02.26 ABC vs Globo FC 2-2 71% 69% 2.9 16% 23% -29.2 12% 19% -35.8
05.02.26 Potiguar de Mossoro vs America-RN 0-0 14% 16% -13.8 23% 27% -13.3 63% 69% -9.2
07.02.26 ABC vs Quinho FC RN 1-1 60% 58% 2.0 25% 32% -21.4 15% 21% -28.8
07.02.26 Potiguar de Mossoro vs Globo FC 3-1 73% 75% -2.3 18% 23% -22.5 9% 13% -31.1
08.02.26 America-RN vs Santa Cruz RN 3-0 88% 92% -4.5 9% 12% -25.8 3% 5% -32.8
08.02.26 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs Potyguar Seridoense 2-2 67% 70% -4.8 21% 24% -15.5 12% 17% -25.8
28.02.26 Clube Laguna SAF RN vs Potiguar de Mossoro 0-0 37% 43% -12.1 30% 34% -11.9 33% 36% -9.9
28.02.26 Santa Cruz RN vs Quinho FC RN 1-1 19% 20% -7.3 25% 28% -9.5 56% 65% -12.7
04.03.26 Quinho FC RN vs Santa Cruz RN 2-0 66% 66% -0.6 21% 26% -20.5 13% 19% -30.4
05.03.26 Potiguar de Mossoro vs Clube Laguna SAF RN 1-0 48% 49% -2.0 28% 32% -13.3 24% 31% -21.2
Showing the 100 most recent of 106 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

8 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 America-RN 1867.10
2 ABC 1829.82
3 Potiguar de Mossoro 1487.45
4 Clube Laguna SAF RN 1368.28
5 Santa Cruz RN 1296.15
6 Baraunas RN 1260.83
7 Globo FC 1196.00
8 CE Forca e Luz 1112.41

Away Ratings

8 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 America-RN 1810.31
2 ABC 1732.25
3 Potiguar de Mossoro 1456.16
4 Santa Cruz RN 1340.02
5 Clube Laguna SAF RN 1337.88
6 Baraunas RN 1327.74
7 Globo FC 1268.41
8 CE Forca e Luz 1103.59