ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 18
Avg Goals 3.11
Avg Home 1.89
Avg Away 1.22
Home Win % 38.9%
Draw % 27.8%
Away Win % 33.3%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 18
Avg Brier Score 0.5131
Pick Accuracy 55.6%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5708
Market Brier 0.4961
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 18 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit -4.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 16.5% 0.0% 8
20–30% 26.5% 22.7% 22
30–40% 33.1% 37.5% 8
40–50% 44.8% 33.3% 9
50–60% 56.3% 100.0% 5
60–70% 63.1% 100.0% 1
70–80% 71.8% 100.0% 1
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
03.03.24 SC Genus RO vs Barcelona FC RO 1-1 30% 29% 0.5 31% 34% -11.4 40% 49% -18.2
24.03.24 SC Genus RO vs Uniao Cacoalense 0-1 46% 52% -11.6 27% 29% -7.4 27% 31% -12.5
27.03.24 Porto Velho FC vs Vilhena EC 4-2 55% 66% -16.9 25% 26% -3.6 20% 19% 3.1
08.05.24 Vilhena EC vs Porto Velho FC 2-5 15% 13% 13.7 22% 22% 2.1 63% 76% -17.3
12.05.24 Barcelona FC RO vs Uniao Cacoalense 1-0 45% 48% -5.0 29% 33% -12.6 26% 31% -18.1
29.05.24 Barcelona FC RO vs Porto Velho FC 0-1 28% 28% 2.2 28% 31% -7.9 43% 53% -19.1
13.02.25 Ji Parana vs Rolim de Moura 1-1 40% 45% -11.1 29% 31% -8.8 31% 36% -12.9
22.02.25 Porto Velho FC vs Rolim de Moura 2-0 59% 70% -15.2 25% 26% -5.5 16% 15% 2.7
06.03.25 Porto Velho FC vs Guapore RO 2-1 60% 71% -15.6 25% 26% -5.3 15% 14% 6.3
13.03.25 Rolim de Moura vs Ji Parana 1-2 42% 47% -10.8 29% 32% -9.6 29% 33% -12.0
23.03.25 Rolim de Moura vs Guapore RO 2-2 22% 22% 0.6 28% 31% -8.6 50% 60% -16.8
27.03.25 Ji Parana vs Barcelona FC RO 2-0 45% 49% -7.4 30% 34% -12.5 25% 29% -13.8
03.04.25 Ji Parana vs Porto Velho FC 0-0 23% 25% -7.8 33% 39% -15.7 44% 49% -10.1
09.02.26 Uniao Cacoalense vs Porto Velho FC 1-2 20% 16% 22.8 26% 27% -3.4 55% 69% -21.4
12.02.26 Guapore RO vs Barcelona FC RO 3-0 53% 58% -9.9 28% 32% -12.6 19% 22% -12.1
26.02.26 Uniao Cacoalense vs SC Genus RO 1-2 36% 38% -4.2 30% 34% -11.3 34% 41% -17.3
01.03.26 Ji Parana vs Uniao Cacoalense 9-0 72% 86% -16.7 18% 16% 12.8 10% 8% 27.2
13.03.26 Guapore RO vs CA Rondoniense 2-2 48% 60% -19.2 27% 29% -5.5 25% 24% 4.6

Home Ratings

7 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Ji Parana 1741.75
2 Genus Rondoniense/RO 1667.68
3 Porto Velho FC 1661.17
4 Guapore RO 1627.40
5 CA Rondoniense 1476.75
6 Uniao Cacoalense 1458.45
7 Barcelona FC RO 1454.79

Away Ratings

7 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Porto Velho FC 1564.88
2 Guapore RO 1542.02
3 CA Rondoniense 1517.91
4 Barcelona FC RO 1473.08
5 Genus Rondoniense/RO 1395.31
6 Ji Parana 1372.08
7 Uniao Cacoalense 1328.76