ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 148
Avg Goals 2.47
Avg Home 1.39
Avg Away 1.09
Home Win % 43.2%
Draw % 27.0%
Away Win % 29.7%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 148
Avg Brier Score 0.5750
Pick Accuracy 53.4%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.5764
Market Brier 0.5761
Blended Model Beats Market? Yes
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 4
Value Bet Hit Rate 0.0%
ROI (flat stake) -100.0%
ROI Trustworthy? Yes
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 3 of 148 matches had at least one · staked 4.00, profit -4.00 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
draw 1 0.0% 1.00 -1.00 -100.0%
away 2 0.0% 2.00 -2.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 6.9% 0.0% 11
10–20% 15.5% 14.9% 74
20–30% 25.4% 26.6% 143
30–40% 32.9% 30.3% 89
40–50% 44.6% 48.9% 45
50–60% 55.1% 52.3% 44
60–70% 64.4% 65.5% 29
70–80% 75.5% 83.3% 6
80–90% 83.7% 100.0% 3
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
13.01.24 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Olimpico EC Itabaianinha 3-1 79% 89% -11.7 15% 14% 6.6 6% 6% 7.3
13.01.24 Atletico Gloriense vs CS Sergipe 1-4 16% 20% -18.0 28% 31% -10.3 56% 61% -8.3
13.01.24 Falcon Futebol Clube vs Dorense FC 2-3 69% 74% -7.0 20% 23% -11.5 11% 13% -20.0
14.01.24 America FC Propria vs Lagarto FC 1-2 18% 23% -20.0 26% 28% -6.7 56% 61% -8.9
14.01.24 AO de Itabaiana vs AD Carmopolis SE 0-2 56% 67% -16.4 26% 26% -1.3 18% 18% -1.3
20.01.24 AD Carmopolis SE vs Atletico Gloriense 1-0 59% 70% -16.4 26% 27% -3.2 15% 14% 4.7
20.01.24 Lagarto FC vs Falcon Futebol Clube 1-1 51% 58% -12.7 28% 29% -5.6 21% 24% -11.1
21.01.24 CS Sergipe vs America FC Propria 1-1 73% 81% -9.9 19% 20% -6.8 9% 10% -13.2
21.01.24 Dorense FC vs AD Confianca Aracaju 0-1 8% 10% -13.9 18% 18% -0.0 74% 83% -10.9
27.01.24 AD Confianca Aracaju vs AD Carmopolis SE 2-1 54% 65% -15.9 26% 27% -2.2 20% 21% -6.6
27.01.24 Dorense FC vs America FC Propria 0-2 33% 39% -15.6 30% 32% -6.1 37% 41% -10.3
28.01.24 AO de Itabaiana vs CS Sergipe 0-2 28% 31% -10.5 30% 32% -6.1 42% 49% -14.4
28.01.24 Lagarto FC vs Atletico Gloriense 2-1 57% 65% -12.0 27% 29% -8.7 16% 17% -10.0
31.01.24 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Falcon Futebol Clube 1-0 57% 65% -12.5 26% 27% -4.9 17% 19% -10.2
31.01.24 Atletico Gloriense vs AO de Itabaiana 2-3 26% 31% -14.0 31% 34% -8.9 42% 48% -11.5
01.02.24 America FC Propria vs AD Carmopolis SE 2-0 26% 32% -19.7 31% 34% -9.9 43% 45% -5.3
01.02.24 CS Sergipe vs Lagarto FC 0-0 45% 51% -10.7 31% 34% -9.3 24% 28% -13.0
03.02.24 Lagarto FC vs Dorense FC 3-1 74% 81% -8.6 19% 21% -11.2 7% 8% -13.8
04.02.24 CS Sergipe vs AD Confianca Aracaju 2-1 33% 36% -8.7 31% 33% -7.3 36% 43% -16.1
05.02.24 Falcon Futebol Clube vs Atletico Gloriense 3-1 61% 71% -15.1 24% 24% 0.2 15% 16% -3.3
08.02.24 AO de Itabaiana vs America FC Propria 2-0 50% 54% -8.4 30% 33% -11.2 21% 25% -16.4
10.02.24 AD Carmopolis SE vs CS Sergipe 0-1 24% 27% -10.6 31% 33% -7.8 45% 53% -13.7
10.02.24 America FC Propria vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-2 19% 23% -17.7 28% 30% -8.1 53% 59% -9.7
10.02.24 Dorense FC vs Atletico Gloriense 1-0 33% 41% -18.5 31% 34% -8.7 35% 38% -6.6
17.02.24 CS Sergipe vs Dorense FC 1-0 78% 84% -6.9 16% 18% -13.9 6% 8% -20.3
17.02.24 Lagarto FC vs AD Carmopolis SE 2-0 53% 62% -15.5 27% 29% -4.1 20% 21% -5.2
18.02.24 AO de Itabaiana vs Falcon Futebol Clube 4-0 39% 47% -15.7 30% 32% -6.3 31% 34% -9.8
21.02.24 Falcon Futebol Clube vs America FC Propria 2-2 48% 55% -13.6 29% 31% -6.6 24% 27% -12.1
23.02.24 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Atletico Gloriense 4-0 76% 85% -11.6 18% 17% 0.8 7% 7% 3.8
24.02.24 CS Sergipe vs Falcon Futebol Clube 0-1 60% 67% -10.0 25% 27% -8.3 15% 17% -14.6
25.02.24 AD Carmopolis SE vs Dorense FC 2-3 56% 63% -10.9 26% 29% -7.8 17% 20% -13.7
02.03.24 Atletico Gloriense vs America FC Propria 0-4 34% 40% -15.2 32% 35% -8.5 34% 37% -8.2
02.03.24 Falcon Futebol Clube vs AD Carmopolis SE 0-0 52% 62% -16.4 28% 29% -3.1 20% 21% -2.2
03.03.24 AD Confianca Aracaju vs AO de Itabaiana 0-1 47% 56% -15.7 30% 32% -7.3 23% 25% -6.9
09.03.24 AO de Itabaiana vs Lagarto FC 2-2 37% 43% -14.2 32% 34% -8.6 31% 35% -11.1
13.03.24 Lagarto FC vs AD Confianca Aracaju 0-2 32% 37% -12.6 32% 34% -8.1 36% 41% -11.9
16.03.24 Dorense FC vs AO de Itabaiana 1-1 23% 28% -18.0 29% 32% -8.6 48% 53% -9.3
16.03.24 Falcon Futebol Clube vs Lagarto FC 0-0 31% 36% -15.1 30% 32% -6.1 39% 43% -10.7
17.03.24 Atletico Gloriense vs America FC Propria 1-1 22% 24% -9.5 27% 28% -2.1 51% 61% -15.4
23.03.24 America FC Propria vs Atletico Gloriense 2-1 51% 56% -8.8 28% 31% -9.7 21% 26% -17.5
23.03.24 Lagarto FC vs Falcon Futebol Clube 1-1 55% 64% -13.4 27% 29% -5.2 18% 19% -6.7
11.01.25 CS Sergipe vs Barra FC SE 1-1 64% 78% -18.7 23% 22% 7.3 13% 10% 28.2
11.01.25 Dorense FC vs Falcon Futebol Clube 0-2 25% 29% -15.9 31% 34% -9.5 44% 49% -9.7
12.01.25 AO de Itabaiana vs AD Carmopolis SE 2-1 61% 69% -12.8 25% 27% -5.8 14% 15% -7.0
13.01.25 AD Confianca Aracaju vs AA Guarany SE 5-1 69% 83% -16.2 21% 20% 6.2 10% 7% 28.7
14.01.25 America FC Propria vs Dorense FC 1-0 46% 50% -7.0 30% 34% -12.1 23% 29% -18.8
16.01.25 AD Carmopolis SE vs CS Sergipe 1-2 23% 26% -10.8 29% 30% -5.0 48% 56% -14.5
16.01.25 Falcon Futebol Clube vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-3 19% 22% -13.1 27% 29% -4.8 54% 62% -12.7
18.01.25 Dorense FC vs AD Carmopolis SE 0-0 40% 47% -14.7 31% 33% -7.8 30% 33% -11.2
18.01.25 Lagarto FC vs AA Guarany SE 4-0 63% 75% -15.8 23% 22% 2.5 14% 14% 0.9
19.01.25 AO de Itabaiana vs CS Sergipe 1-1 43% 49% -11.0 32% 36% -11.0 25% 29% -13.2
20.01.25 Falcon Futebol Clube vs Barra FC SE 4-0 52% 65% -19.5 27% 28% -1.7 21% 20% 3.8
22.01.25 AA Guarany SE vs AO de Itabaiana 1-1 16% 18% -13.1 26% 27% -4.3 59% 67% -12.6
24.01.25 Barra FC SE vs Lagarto FC 0-5 4% 4% 10.2 11% 8% 43.0 85% 96% -11.8
25.01.25 America FC Propria vs AO de Itabaiana 1-1 23% 24% -6.5 32% 36% -9.7 45% 53% -14.6
25.01.25 CS Sergipe vs Falcon Futebol Clube 0-1 45% 49% -8.4 31% 34% -10.8 25% 29% -16.5
26.01.25 AD Carmopolis SE vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-2 9% 10% -7.6 23% 25% -6.2 67% 76% -11.4
26.01.25 Lagarto FC vs Dorense FC 1-1 68% 76% -10.7 21% 22% -5.3 11% 13% -12.4
29.01.25 America FC Propria vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-1 17% 17% -5.0 26% 26% -0.1 58% 68% -14.9
01.02.25 AO de Itabaiana vs Falcon Futebol Clube 4-0 50% 56% -9.7 27% 29% -6.0 23% 28% -17.3
01.02.25 Dorense FC vs CS Sergipe 0-1 24% 28% -13.9 31% 33% -8.2 45% 51% -11.3
02.02.25 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Lagarto FC 4-0 46% 50% -8.9 33% 38% -13.3 21% 24% -11.3
02.02.25 America FC Propria vs AA Guarany SE 3-0 52% 57% -9.6 28% 31% -9.2 20% 24% -16.4
03.02.25 Barra FC SE vs AD Carmopolis SE 3-2 22% 24% -7.0 27% 28% -1.6 51% 61% -16.6
08.02.25 Dorense FC vs AA Guarany SE 1-2 41% 48% -13.7 31% 33% -7.5 28% 31% -10.3
08.02.25 Lagarto FC vs AO de Itabaiana 0-1 39% 43% -10.9 31% 34% -8.7 30% 34% -13.6
09.02.25 AD Confianca Aracaju vs CS Sergipe 2-1 54% 60% -9.9 28% 31% -9.6 19% 22% -14.7
09.02.25 Barra FC SE vs America FC Propria 1-0 21% 24% -12.5 27% 27% -1.7 52% 61% -14.1
10.02.25 Falcon Futebol Clube vs AD Carmopolis SE 3-2 57% 65% -12.2 25% 26% -5.3 18% 22% -15.2
15.02.25 AA Guarany SE vs Falcon Futebol Clube 2-0 32% 36% -12.8 32% 34% -8.2 37% 42% -12.0
15.02.25 AD Carmopolis SE vs America FC Propria 1-1 27% 32% -15.2 28% 29% -4.0 44% 51% -13.4
15.02.25 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Barra FC SE 8-1 86% 92% -6.7 11% 12% -10.3 4% 5% -19.8
16.02.25 AO de Itabaiana vs Dorense FC 4-1 66% 74% -10.9 22% 24% -6.0 12% 13% -10.1
16.02.25 CS Sergipe vs Lagarto FC 0-4 39% 45% -13.9 31% 34% -8.9 29% 33% -11.7
22.02.25 AD Carmopolis SE vs Lagarto FC 1-1 13% 15% -12.4 25% 26% -4.4 62% 70% -11.9
22.02.25 Barra FC SE vs Dorense FC 0-2 29% 33% -14.1 31% 34% -8.1 40% 45% -11.6
22.02.25 CS Sergipe vs AA Guarany SE 4-0 60% 67% -11.2 26% 28% -7.9 15% 17% -11.1
23.02.25 AD Confianca Aracaju vs AO de Itabaiana 0-0 48% 53% -11.1 28% 30% -6.7 24% 29% -15.3
24.02.25 Falcon Futebol Clube vs America FC Propria 0-1 44% 51% -13.0 30% 32% -7.0 26% 29% -11.3
01.03.25 AA Guarany SE vs AD Carmopolis SE 2-1 53% 62% -14.1 28% 29% -6.3 19% 21% -8.6
01.03.25 AO de Itabaiana vs Barra FC SE 4-2 81% 88% -8.8 13% 14% -4.3 6% 7% -17.4
01.03.25 CS Sergipe vs America FC Propria 0-1 57% 65% -12.7 26% 28% -6.4 17% 19% -11.2
01.03.25 Dorense FC vs AD Confianca Aracaju 2-1 19% 23% -19.6 26% 29% -7.3 55% 61% -9.3
01.03.25 Lagarto FC vs Falcon Futebol Clube 3-0 56% 64% -12.7 26% 28% -5.9 18% 21% -12.3
05.03.25 America FC Propria vs AA Guarany SE 1-0 49% 58% -15.8 29% 31% -5.8 22% 24% -6.0
06.03.25 AO de Itabaiana vs CS Sergipe 2-0 46% 53% -12.8 30% 33% -9.1 24% 27% -11.9
06.03.25 Lagarto FC vs Falcon Futebol Clube 0-0 58% 66% -12.5 26% 28% -6.3 16% 18% -9.9
08.03.25 Falcon Futebol Clube vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-2 14% 15% -8.9 25% 26% -3.8 61% 70% -13.2
09.03.25 America FC Propria vs AO de Itabaiana 1-1 24% 28% -15.3 34% 38% -12.6 43% 47% -7.8
15.03.25 AD Confianca Aracaju vs Falcon Futebol Clube 3-0 64% 71% -9.7 23% 24% -7.6 13% 15% -15.6
15.03.25 AO de Itabaiana vs America FC Propria 1-0 59% 67% -12.4 26% 28% -6.6 15% 17% -8.3
22.03.25 AO de Itabaiana vs AD Confianca Aracaju 1-2 28% 32% -12.6 34% 39% -12.2 37% 42% -10.2
29.03.25 AD Confianca Aracaju vs AO de Itabaiana 1-1 46% 53% -12.5 29% 32% -8.6 24% 29% -14.4
10.01.26 AD Aracaju SE vs AD Confianca Aracaju 0-3 14% 15% -7.2 23% 23% 1.4 63% 73% -13.9
10.01.26 Lagarto FC vs Falcon Futebol Clube 2-2 57% 64% -11.1 26% 29% -8.2 17% 20% -14.2
11.01.26 AA Guarany SE vs Dorense FC 3-1 39% 47% -16.2 30% 32% -6.0 31% 33% -7.9
11.01.26 America FC Propria vs CS Sergipe 2-2 27% 32% -17.3 32% 36% -11.0 41% 44% -7.9
11.01.26 AO de Itabaiana vs Atletico Gloriense 1-0 61% 68% -9.7 24% 27% -9.6 14% 17% -16.9
17.01.26 CS Sergipe vs AA Guarany SE 1-1 60% 67% -10.4 25% 27% -7.9 15% 17% -13.8
17.01.26 Dorense FC vs America FC Propria 2-2 26% 29% -11.7 32% 35% -8.6 42% 48% -11.5
Showing the 100 most recent of 148 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

12 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 AO de Itabaiana 1771.67
2 AD Confianca Aracaju 1730.37
3 CS Sergipe 1700.36
4 Lagarto FC 1621.47
5 Falcon Futebol Clube 1530.62
6 AA Guarany SE 1481.00
7 America FC Propria 1472.42
8 Dorense FC 1411.51
9 Atletico Gloriense 1403.03
10 AD Carmopolis SE 1297.63
11 AD Aracaju SE 1292.92
12 Barra FC SE 1236.55

Away Ratings

12 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 CS Sergipe 1635.35
2 AO de Itabaiana 1613.87
3 AD Confianca Aracaju 1565.82
4 Lagarto FC 1504.43
5 America FC Propria 1429.22
6 AA Guarany SE 1396.32
7 Falcon Futebol Clube 1389.53
8 Atletico Gloriense 1350.22
9 Dorense FC 1271.58
10 AD Carmopolis SE 1235.14
11 AD Aracaju SE 1198.06
12 Barra FC SE 1193.40