ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1505
Avg Goals 2.52
Avg Home 1.45
Avg Away 1.06
Home Win % 46.8%
Draw % 26.7%
Away Win % 26.4%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
Calculating…
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1158
Avg Brier Score 0.5966
Pick Accuracy 50.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6016
Market Brier 0.5966
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 7
Value Bet Hit Rate 28.6%
ROI (flat stake) -8.6%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 85.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 7 of 1158 matches had at least one · staked 7.00, profit -0.60 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 1 100.0% 1.00 1.90 190.0%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 6 16.7% 6.00 -2.50 -41.7%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
0–10% 8.2% 2.8% 36
10–20% 16.2% 14.5% 413
20–30% 26.3% 25.2% 1487
30–40% 34.0% 34.1% 607
40–50% 44.7% 47.6% 433
50–60% 55.0% 57.8% 303
60–70% 64.1% 65.2% 141
70–80% 73.2% 75.5% 49
80–90% 81.6% 100.0% 5
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
18.07.23 Goias EC vs Atletico-MG 0-0 22% 26% -14.1 27% 29% -9.8 51% 51% 0.3
22.07.23 Cuiaba vs Sao Paulo 2-1 34% 36% -5.3 31% 34% -9.1 35% 36% -2.7
22.07.23 EC Bahia vs Corinthians 0-0 44% 45% -3.8 29% 32% -8.9 27% 29% -5.9
22.07.23 Flamengo vs America MG 1-1 72% 74% -2.3 18% 20% -8.8 10% 11% -13.4
22.07.23 Palmeiras vs Fortaleza EC 3-1 65% 68% -4.8 22% 23% -5.0 13% 14% -4.4
23.07.23 CA Bragantino vs Internacional 0-0 52% 56% -7.3 27% 29% -6.1 21% 21% 0.3
23.07.23 Cruzeiro vs Goias EC 0-1 60% 61% -1.7 24% 27% -10.2 15% 17% -11.3
23.07.23 Gremio Porto Alegre vs Atletico-MG 1-0 41% 43% -5.9 29% 31% -7.2 30% 31% -3.7
23.07.23 Santos FC vs Botafogo-RJ 2-2 29% 29% -2.5 30% 33% -9.0 41% 43% -5.7
23.07.23 Vasco da Gama vs Athletico PR 0-2 35% 37% -4.8 30% 32% -7.7 35% 36% -3.9
25.07.23 Coritiba vs Fluminense 2-0 31% 34% -8.2 29% 31% -7.5 40% 41% -2.0
29.07.23 Athletico PR vs Cruzeiro 3-3 50% 53% -6.0 28% 30% -7.9 22% 23% -2.8
29.07.23 Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama 3-1 49% 49% -0.3 29% 32% -10.0 22% 24% -8.3
29.07.23 Fluminense vs Santos FC 1-0 65% 65% -0.4 22% 25% -12.1 13% 15% -15.8
29.07.23 Fortaleza EC vs CA Bragantino 0-3 41% 44% -8.6 29% 31% -6.6 31% 31% -0.4
29.07.23 Internacional vs Cuiaba 1-2 53% 56% -4.4 28% 31% -9.7 19% 19% -2.0
30.07.23 America MG vs Palmeiras 1-4 26% 30% -14.0 28% 30% -9.0 46% 45% 2.0
30.07.23 Atletico-MG vs Flamengo 1-2 45% 47% -2.5 28% 31% -7.9 26% 29% -8.0
30.07.23 Botafogo-RJ vs Coritiba 4-1 59% 62% -4.2 25% 27% -7.8 16% 17% -6.3
30.07.23 Goias EC vs Gremio Porto Alegre 1-1 32% 37% -12.6 29% 31% -7.9 39% 38% 3.0
30.07.23 Sao Paulo vs EC Bahia 0-0 60% 62% -3.3 24% 26% -7.0 16% 17% -7.5
05.08.23 Internacional vs Corinthians 2-2 43% 44% -2.5 31% 34% -10.1 26% 27% -3.7
05.08.23 Santos FC vs Athletico PR 1-1 39% 44% -11.8 30% 32% -8.0 31% 29% 5.8
06.08.23 Coritiba vs CA Bragantino 0-1 28% 31% -8.0 28% 31% -7.4 43% 44% -2.8
06.08.23 Cruzeiro vs Botafogo-RJ 0-0 43% 43% -1.6 29% 32% -9.2 28% 31% -9.2
06.08.23 EC Bahia vs America MG 3-1 49% 51% -5.0 26% 28% -5.1 25% 27% -6.4
06.08.23 Fluminense vs Palmeiras 2-1 43% 47% -8.2 29% 31% -6.7 29% 29% 0.0
06.08.23 Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG 0-2 46% 50% -7.3 29% 31% -7.8 25% 25% -0.6
06.08.23 Vasco da Gama vs Gremio Porto Alegre 1-0 33% 36% -7.7 29% 31% -6.9 38% 38% -1.3
07.08.23 Cuiaba vs Flamengo 3-0 29% 33% -12.0 29% 32% -9.0 41% 40% 3.3
13.08.23 Atletico-MG vs EC Bahia 1-0 62% 62% -1.5 24% 26% -10.0 15% 17% -11.5
13.08.23 Botafogo-RJ vs Internacional 3-1 42% 44% -6.6 30% 33% -8.6 28% 28% 0.9
13.08.23 Corinthians vs Coritiba 3-1 54% 58% -5.8 27% 29% -6.8 19% 19% -0.6
13.08.23 Flamengo vs Sao Paulo 1-1 54% 58% -6.1 26% 27% -5.6 20% 21% -4.0
13.08.23 Fortaleza EC vs Santos FC 4-0 64% 65% -2.4 24% 26% -10.5 13% 14% -8.1
13.08.23 Gremio Porto Alegre vs Fluminense 2-1 42% 45% -7.5 28% 30% -6.4 30% 30% -2.3
15.08.23 CA Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama 1-1 60% 61% -0.2 24% 27% -10.5 16% 18% -13.8
15.08.23 Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro 1-0 61% 62% -2.9 24% 26% -9.5 16% 17% -10.9
16.08.23 Athletico PR vs Cuiaba 2-0 47% 52% -8.7 29% 31% -6.9 24% 23% 4.0
19.08.23 Cuiaba vs Palmeiras 0-2 28% 30% -7.1 30% 33% -9.5 42% 43% -2.0
19.08.23 Fluminense vs America MG 3-1 65% 67% -2.7 21% 23% -7.3 13% 15% -10.2
19.08.23 Internacional vs Fortaleza EC 0-1 40% 42% -4.5 30% 32% -7.9 30% 31% -4.0
19.08.23 Sao Paulo vs Botafogo-RJ 0-0 49% 50% -1.3 27% 30% -9.5 23% 26% -11.7
20.08.23 Coritiba vs Flamengo 2-3 24% 27% -10.4 27% 29% -7.9 49% 50% -2.0
20.08.23 Cruzeiro vs Corinthians 1-1 53% 55% -4.2 28% 30% -9.1 20% 21% -4.9
20.08.23 EC Bahia vs CA Bragantino 4-0 38% 42% -7.8 29% 31% -6.8 33% 34% -2.9
20.08.23 Santos FC vs Gremio Porto Alegre 2-1 33% 37% -10.9 30% 32% -8.6 38% 37% 1.2
20.08.23 Vasco da Gama vs Atletico-MG 1-0 34% 38% -9.7 31% 34% -9.6 35% 35% 1.2
22.08.23 Goias EC vs Athletico PR 1-1 31% 35% -10.8 30% 33% -9.8 39% 38% 1.0
26.08.23 Flamengo vs Internacional 0-0 65% 67% -2.9 22% 24% -8.2 13% 14% -9.3
27.08.23 America MG vs Sao Paulo 2-1 34% 36% -5.6 29% 31% -6.5 38% 39% -4.4
27.08.23 Athletico PR vs Fluminense 2-2 50% 56% -10.4 27% 28% -4.1 23% 22% 6.0
27.08.23 Atletico-MG vs Santos FC 2-0 63% 65% -3.5 24% 26% -10.0 13% 14% -7.4
27.08.23 Botafogo-RJ vs EC Bahia 3-0 51% 53% -4.7 27% 29% -6.3 23% 24% -5.2
27.08.23 CA Bragantino vs Cuiaba 2-0 55% 57% -3.4 26% 29% -8.3 19% 20% -6.8
27.08.23 Corinthians vs Goias EC 1-1 49% 49% 0.1 29% 32% -10.2 22% 24% -8.9
27.08.23 Fortaleza EC vs Coritiba 3-1 64% 67% -4.1 22% 24% -7.3 14% 15% -9.0
27.08.23 Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama 1-0 70% 72% -2.1 20% 22% -10.2 10% 11% -12.2
28.08.23 Gremio Porto Alegre vs Cruzeiro 3-0 48% 50% -4.6 27% 29% -6.6 25% 26% -5.7
02.09.23 Athletico PR vs Atletico-MG 1-1 40% 43% -7.0 30% 32% -7.7 31% 31% -0.5
02.09.23 Goias EC vs Internacional 0-0 35% 37% -5.3 31% 34% -9.0 34% 35% -2.2
03.09.23 America MG vs Santos FC 2-0 45% 47% -4.2 28% 31% -7.4 27% 29% -5.7
03.09.23 Botafogo-RJ vs Flamengo 1-2 38% 41% -8.0 30% 32% -8.1 33% 33% -1.5
03.09.23 Corinthians vs Palmeiras 0-0 20% 23% -11.1 28% 32% -11.7 51% 51% 0.1
03.09.23 Cruzeiro vs CA Bragantino 0-0 40% 42% -4.8 30% 32% -7.9 30% 31% -3.7
03.09.23 EC Bahia vs Vasco da Gama 1-1 47% 49% -3.8 28% 31% -8.2 25% 27% -6.9
03.09.23 Fluminense vs Fortaleza EC 1-0 54% 55% -0.8 26% 29% -9.8 20% 23% -13.1
03.09.23 Gremio Porto Alegre vs Cuiaba 2-0 57% 60% -5.0 26% 28% -8.1 18% 19% -5.9
14.09.23 Flamengo vs Athletico PR 0-3 54% 56% -3.7 26% 28% -6.8 21% 22% -7.3
14.09.23 Internacional vs Sao Paulo 2-1 38% 42% -9.5 30% 33% -8.9 31% 31% 2.3
15.09.23 CA Bragantino vs Gremio Porto Alegre 2-0 54% 58% -7.4 25% 26% -4.2 21% 21% -2.0
15.09.23 Coritiba vs EC Bahia 2-4 38% 40% -5.7 29% 31% -6.9 33% 34% -3.8
15.09.23 Fortaleza EC vs Corinthians 2-1 58% 61% -6.2 26% 28% -7.2 17% 17% 0.1
15.09.23 Santos FC vs Cruzeiro 0-3 39% 42% -6.7 31% 34% -9.4 30% 31% -1.2
16.09.23 Palmeiras vs Goias EC 1-0 77% 78% -0.9 16% 18% -14.5 7% 9% -19.3
16.09.23 Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense 4-2 28% 29% -6.2 30% 32% -8.2 43% 43% -1.6
17.09.23 Atletico-MG vs Botafogo-RJ 1-0 45% 45% -0.8 30% 33% -10.1 25% 27% -7.8
19.09.23 Corinthians vs Gremio Porto Alegre 4-4 36% 40% -9.2 30% 32% -7.7 34% 33% 1.8
19.09.23 EC Bahia vs Santos FC 1-2 56% 59% -5.2 26% 28% -7.0 18% 19% -3.5
20.09.23 America MG vs CA Bragantino 0-2 31% 34% -10.2 28% 29% -6.2 41% 42% -1.8
21.09.23 Fluminense vs Cruzeiro 1-0 53% 53% -1.3 27% 29% -9.0 20% 23% -10.0
21.09.23 Goias EC vs Flamengo 0-0 32% 35% -8.7 30% 32% -8.0 39% 38% 0.1
21.09.23 Sao Paulo vs Fortaleza EC 1-2 41% 43% -2.7 30% 32% -8.5 29% 31% -6.9
22.09.23 Athletico PR vs Internacional 2-1 57% 61% -6.4 26% 28% -6.8 17% 17% 0.1
22.09.23 Gremio Porto Alegre vs Palmeiras 1-0 29% 32% -9.9 29% 31% -7.3 42% 42% 0.5
22.09.23 Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba 5-1 59% 62% -5.2 25% 27% -7.3 16% 17% -3.6
23.09.23 Corinthians vs Botafogo-RJ 1-0 34% 37% -7.4 30% 33% -8.8 35% 36% -1.1
24.09.23 Atletico-MG vs Cuiaba 1-0 61% 62% -2.0 25% 29% -11.3 14% 15% -8.1
26.09.23 America MG vs Vasco da Gama 0-1 34% 36% -4.0 29% 31% -6.4 37% 39% -5.8
28.09.23 Sao Paulo vs Coritiba 2-1 65% 67% -2.7 21% 23% -7.4 13% 15% -10.3
30.09.23 Cuiaba vs Fluminense 3-0 40% 43% -7.8 30% 32% -7.3 30% 29% 2.0
30.09.23 Flamengo vs EC Bahia 1-0 61% 66% -6.6 22% 23% -2.9 16% 17% -3.1
30.09.23 Fortaleza EC vs Gremio Porto Alegre 1-1 37% 39% -5.1 29% 31% -7.2 34% 36% -5.4
30.09.23 Sao Paulo vs Corinthians 2-1 63% 65% -3.7 24% 26% -9.1 13% 14% -4.7
01.10.23 CA Bragantino vs Palmeiras 2-1 52% 58% -11.9 26% 26% -2.2 23% 21% 9.1
01.10.23 Coritiba vs Athletico PR 2-0 26% 29% -10.3 29% 31% -8.6 46% 45% 0.7
01.10.23 Cruzeiro vs America MG 1-1 58% 59% -1.7 24% 26% -8.6 18% 21% -13.1
01.10.23 Internacional vs Atletico-MG 0-2 27% 28% -4.0 30% 33% -9.6 43% 45% -4.9
01.10.23 Santos FC vs Vasco da Gama 4-1 36% 38% -6.4 30% 32% -7.7 34% 35% -2.4
03.10.23 Botafogo-RJ vs Goias EC 1-1 62% 64% -3.3 24% 26% -9.4 15% 16% -8.9
Showing the 100 most recent of 1158 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

20 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Flamengo 2166.20
2 Palmeiras 2068.02
3 Cruzeiro 1999.16
4 Vasco da Gama 1960.88
5 EC Bahia 1956.23
6 Athletico PR 1952.52
7 CA Bragantino 1951.86
8 Corinthians 1949.75
9 Fluminense 1948.96
10 Sao Paulo 1939.23
11 Internacional 1937.34
12 Mirassol 1921.72
13 Santos FC 1921.27
14 Atletico-MG 1917.03
15 Botafogo-RJ 1916.61
16 EC Vitoria Salvador 1838.53
17 Gremio Porto Alegre 1834.31
18 Clube Do Remo 1821.12
19 Coritiba 1791.31
20 Chapecoense 1741.27

Away Ratings

20 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Flamengo 2085.93
2 Palmeiras 1998.63
3 Cruzeiro 1923.98
4 Vasco da Gama 1890.55
5 Fluminense 1888.50
6 Santos FC 1867.51
7 CA Bragantino 1865.35
8 EC Bahia 1839.99
9 Sao Paulo 1837.68
10 Corinthians 1836.66
11 Botafogo-RJ 1835.02
12 Atletico-MG 1827.87
13 Internacional 1813.12
14 Mirassol 1799.14
15 Athletico PR 1795.01
16 Gremio Porto Alegre 1772.14
17 EC Vitoria Salvador 1749.03
18 Coritiba 1727.63
19 Clube Do Remo 1703.98
20 Chapecoense 1638.94