ratings1x2
soccer match ratings

Home and away ratings by league.

Choose a country and league, then compare venue splits side by side.

Continents 5
Countries 150
Status Live
Live data — not yet cached in the database
No cached league history dataset for this league yet.
Matches 1490
Avg Goals 2.17
Avg Home 1.29
Avg Away 0.88
Home Win % 47.5%
Draw % 29.9%
Away Win % 22.6%

Team Comparison

Select teams to calculate odds, or build a full round of fixtures.
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Rows Created0
Rows Ready0
Margin0.00%
Each row shows 1X2, DNB, O/U 2.5, and BTTS prices for one matchup.

Replays every completed match stored for this league through the ratings-only model and compares it against the bookmaker odds recorded at the time.

Market weight: how much of the reported probability comes from the de-vigged market versus the ratings-only model (0 = pure model, 1 = pure market). Edge threshold: a relative edge against the raw (vigged) price actually on offer — model_p / raw_implied_p − 1 — since that's what you'd actually pay, and a flat percentage-point gap means very different things at a 10% price versus a 70% one. Recalculating…
Matches Backtested 1010
Avg Brier Score 0.6203
Pick Accuracy 47.9%
Source postgres
Raw Model Brier 0.6181
Market Brier 0.6195
Blended Model Beats Market? No
Market Weight 0.7
"Avg Brier Score" and the calibration/match tables below use the model blended 70% toward the de-vigged market (raw ratings-only model shown separately as "Raw Model Brier") — edges and value bets are computed from this blended view.
Value Bets Found 11
Value Bet Hit Rate 9.1%
ROI (flat stake) -34.1%
ROI Trustworthy? No
Before trusting this ROI:
  • The blended model's Brier score does not beat the market's — ROI may reflect leftover model bias rather than genuine skill.
  • 72.7% of value bets are on 'away' — ROI may just be measuring a systematic model bias toward that side, not real edge.
Relative edge ≥ 10.0% (against the raw, vigged price actually on offer) flags a value bet · 11 of 1010 matches had at least one · staked 11.00, profit -3.75 units.
Side Bets Hit Rate Staked Profit ROI
home 3 33.3% 3.00 4.25 141.7%
draw 0 - 0.00 0.00 -
away 8 0.0% 8.00 -8.00 -100.0%
Value bets broken down by outcome side — a lopsided book (almost all bets on one side) means the ROI above is more likely measuring a systematic model bias toward that side than real per-match mispricing.
Predicted Range Predicted Avg Actual Freq Samples
10–20% 17.2% 14.9% 202
20–30% 26.2% 24.1% 991
30–40% 33.1% 32.6% 1146
40–50% 44.6% 50.7% 438
50–60% 53.9% 53.1% 209
60–70% 63.1% 77.3% 44
Date Match Result HOME (1) DRAW (X) AWAY (2)
Model Price Edge Model Price Edge Model Price Edge
18.07.23 Botafogo SP vs Criciuma EC 1-0 34% 36% -6.9 33% 37% -9.9 33% 36% -9.9
18.07.23 Tombense FC vs CRB Maceio 2-1 42% 48% -12.8 31% 33% -7.7 28% 29% -5.8
19.07.23 Ponte Preta vs EC Juventude 0-0 37% 42% -10.4 32% 35% -8.7 31% 33% -8.1
20.07.23 Atletico GO vs Mirassol 2-2 45% 50% -10.7 30% 32% -7.6 26% 28% -8.1
20.07.23 Avai SC vs Sampaio Correa 2-0 44% 50% -11.9 31% 34% -9.1 25% 26% -4.1
20.07.23 Ceara Sporting Club vs Vila Nova-GO 1-0 35% 39% -9.8 33% 36% -9.8 32% 35% -8.8
20.07.23 Novorizontino vs Londrina PR 3-0 60% 67% -11.2 25% 27% -5.2 15% 15% 2.2
20.07.23 Sport Recife vs EC Vitoria Salvador 1-2 52% 60% -13.0 28% 30% -6.6 20% 20% -0.5
22.07.23 CRB Maceio vs Ponte Preta 1-0 47% 53% -11.4 30% 32% -7.3 23% 24% -3.4
22.07.23 Criciuma EC vs Novorizontino 0-1 39% 43% -9.4 32% 35% -8.6 29% 31% -7.9
22.07.23 Ituano vs Avai SC 0-1 46% 52% -11.6 30% 33% -8.6 24% 25% -5.0
22.07.23 Vila Nova-GO vs ABC 1-1 61% 69% -12.8 25% 27% -5.5 14% 13% 6.7
23.07.23 EC Juventude vs Ceara Sporting Club 1-0 47% 54% -12.4 29% 31% -6.0 23% 24% -2.4
23.07.23 Guarani SP vs Atletico GO 1-0 40% 44% -10.9 31% 34% -8.3 29% 32% -9.1
23.07.23 Sampaio Correa vs Sport Recife 1-2 29% 30% -5.2 32% 34% -7.9 40% 45% -13.1
25.07.23 Londrina PR vs Botafogo SP 1-2 37% 40% -7.5 32% 35% -8.9 31% 35% -10.8
29.07.23 ABC vs Londrina PR 0-0 44% 49% -10.1 31% 34% -8.7 25% 27% -6.7
29.07.23 Atletico GO vs Sampaio Correa 2-2 54% 62% -12.7 27% 29% -5.2 19% 19% -0.4
29.07.23 Avai SC vs Guarani SP 1-2 40% 44% -10.7 32% 35% -9.1 28% 31% -7.6
29.07.23 Botafogo SP vs EC Juventude 0-2 38% 42% -9.3 32% 35% -8.9 30% 33% -9.2
29.07.23 Ceara Sporting Club vs Ituano 1-1 51% 60% -14.1 29% 31% -6.8 20% 20% 0.8
29.07.23 Sport Recife vs CRB Maceio 2-0 55% 63% -12.4 27% 29% -6.5 18% 18% -1.9
30.07.23 Novorizontino vs Vila Nova-GO 3-1 44% 49% -10.5 32% 36% -9.8 24% 25% -3.5
30.07.23 Ponte Preta vs EC Vitoria Salvador 2-2 38% 42% -10.4 32% 34% -8.2 31% 33% -8.3
30.07.23 Tombense FC vs Criciuma EC 2-2 39% 44% -12.2 31% 33% -7.2 30% 32% -6.8
02.08.23 CRB Maceio vs Atletico GO 2-1 38% 42% -9.8 32% 35% -8.8 31% 34% -9.6
02.08.23 Mirassol vs Avai SC 2-2 53% 60% -12.7 28% 30% -7.7 19% 20% -3.0
02.08.23 Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo SP 0-0 42% 47% -10.0 32% 36% -9.9 26% 28% -6.5
03.08.23 Criciuma EC vs Ponte Preta 2-1 52% 59% -12.3 29% 31% -7.1 20% 20% -0.9
03.08.23 EC Juventude vs Novorizontino 1-0 38% 43% -10.1 33% 36% -9.0 29% 31% -6.5
03.08.23 Guarani SP vs Ceara Sporting Club 0-0 43% 49% -12.3 31% 34% -8.5 26% 28% -5.6
03.08.23 Londrina PR vs Chapecoense 1-1 38% 41% -7.2 32% 35% -9.1 30% 34% -10.9
03.08.23 Vila Nova-GO vs Sport Recife 0-1 41% 45% -9.4 32% 36% -9.7 27% 29% -6.9
05.08.23 Avai SC vs Criciuma EC 1-0 36% 40% -9.9 32% 36% -9.2 32% 34% -8.6
05.08.23 CRB Maceio vs Botafogo SP 0-0 46% 51% -10.7 31% 34% -8.8 23% 24% -4.4
05.08.23 Sport Recife vs Novorizontino 1-0 47% 53% -11.3 30% 33% -8.6 23% 24% -4.1
06.08.23 Ceara Sporting Club vs ABC 1-0 54% 62% -13.0 27% 29% -5.0 18% 18% 1.8
06.08.23 Ponte Preta vs Chapecoense 1-0 41% 44% -8.3 32% 35% -9.4 28% 31% -10.0
07.08.23 EC Juventude vs Vila Nova-GO 0-2 40% 44% -10.7 33% 37% -9.8 27% 28% -3.0
08.08.23 Atletico GO vs Tombense FC 3-2 51% 58% -12.2 28% 29% -5.8 21% 22% -3.8
08.08.23 Londrina PR vs EC Vitoria Salvador 2-0 31% 34% -7.2 31% 34% -7.3 37% 42% -12.0
12.08.23 Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta 0-0 42% 45% -8.5 33% 36% -10.4 26% 28% -7.1
12.08.23 Criciuma EC vs Londrina PR 2-0 56% 65% -12.6 26% 28% -5.5 17% 17% -0.1
12.08.23 Novorizontino vs Mirassol 2-1 43% 48% -9.3 32% 36% -10.7 25% 27% -7.8
12.08.23 Sampaio Correa vs CRB Maceio 1-1 39% 44% -11.4 32% 35% -9.0 29% 31% -7.5
12.08.23 Tombense FC vs Sport Recife 0-0 33% 36% -8.6 31% 33% -6.8 36% 41% -11.1
12.08.23 Vila Nova-GO vs Avai SC 1-1 54% 62% -11.9 27% 29% -6.6 18% 18% -0.4
13.08.23 Chapecoense vs Atletico GO 0-1 36% 39% -8.3 32% 35% -9.2 32% 36% -11.4
13.08.23 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Ceara Sporting Club 1-0 44% 49% -10.5 31% 33% -7.6 26% 27% -5.5
13.08.23 Guarani SP vs EC Juventude 0-1 39% 43% -9.5 33% 37% -10.5 27% 29% -6.5
18.08.23 Londrina PR vs Atletico GO 0-2 30% 32% -5.5 31% 34% -7.8 38% 44% -14.0
18.08.23 Vila Nova-GO vs Mirassol 2-0 46% 51% -10.3 31% 35% -10.1 23% 24% -4.8
19.08.23 ABC vs CRB Maceio 1-2 34% 36% -6.8 34% 38% -10.5 32% 36% -9.6
19.08.23 Avai SC vs Tombense FC 4-2 45% 52% -12.3 30% 32% -7.0 25% 26% -4.2
19.08.23 EC Juventude vs Sampaio Correa 0-0 53% 61% -13.0 28% 30% -7.0 19% 19% 0.2
19.08.23 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Botafogo SP 2-0 51% 58% -11.9 29% 32% -8.7 19% 19% 0.1
19.08.23 Guarani SP vs Sport Recife 3-1 35% 38% -8.4 34% 38% -10.8 32% 35% -9.4
19.08.23 Ituano vs Criciuma EC 3-0 36% 39% -8.5 32% 35% -8.4 32% 36% -9.9
20.08.23 Ceara Sporting Club vs Ponte Preta 1-1 54% 61% -12.7 28% 29% -6.3 19% 19% -0.8
20.08.23 Novorizontino vs Chapecoense 1-2 55% 62% -12.6 27% 29% -7.1 18% 18% -0.9
23.08.23 Criciuma EC vs Vila Nova-GO 1-0 43% 49% -11.5 32% 34% -8.1 25% 26% -2.1
23.08.23 Mirassol vs EC Juventude 0-1 46% 51% -10.7 31% 34% -9.3 23% 24% -3.7
24.08.23 Botafogo SP vs Chapecoense 1-2 43% 48% -10.3 32% 36% -10.3 25% 27% -6.6
24.08.23 CRB Maceio vs Avai SC 1-1 50% 58% -12.8 29% 31% -7.3 21% 21% -1.1
26.08.23 CRB Maceio vs Novorizontino 1-0 36% 40% -9.3 32% 34% -8.3 32% 36% -10.1
26.08.23 Ponte Preta vs Londrina PR 1-0 47% 53% -10.9 30% 32% -7.9 23% 25% -6.3
26.08.23 Sport Recife vs Ituano 1-2 60% 68% -12.4 25% 27% -4.9 15% 14% 6.4
26.08.23 Tombense FC vs Ceara Sporting Club 2-2 39% 44% -11.7 31% 33% -7.3 30% 32% -7.5
27.08.23 Atletico GO vs EC Vitoria Salvador 0-0 45% 51% -12.0 30% 32% -7.2 25% 26% -5.2
27.08.23 Chapecoense vs Avai SC 0-0 44% 49% -10.7 31% 34% -8.5 25% 27% -5.9
29.08.23 Botafogo SP vs ABC 0-0 49% 55% -11.2 31% 34% -9.4 21% 21% -1.4
31.08.23 Novorizontino vs Ituano 2-0 52% 58% -10.8 29% 31% -8.5 19% 20% -3.7
01.09.23 EC Juventude vs Chapecoense 0-0 50% 56% -11.9 30% 33% -9.2 20% 20% -0.2
02.09.23 Avai SC vs Atletico GO 0-2 35% 38% -8.6 31% 34% -7.7 34% 38% -11.1
02.09.23 Ceara Sporting Club vs Criciuma EC 1-0 44% 51% -12.1 30% 32% -6.9 26% 27% -5.3
02.09.23 Guarani SP vs Ponte Preta 1-0 49% 55% -11.7 31% 34% -9.5 21% 21% -1.2
02.09.23 Londrina PR vs Tombense FC 1-1 36% 39% -8.3 32% 35% -8.4 32% 36% -10.0
03.09.23 Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife 1-1 28% 29% -4.5 33% 37% -9.7 38% 43% -11.5
03.09.23 Vila Nova-GO vs CRB Maceio 0-1 50% 56% -11.2 30% 33% -8.7 19% 19% 1.9
07.09.23 Ceara Sporting Club vs Londrina PR 3-1 58% 66% -12.1 26% 28% -6.2 16% 15% 2.2
08.09.23 Ituano vs Vila Nova-GO 1-2 36% 39% -9.4 34% 38% -10.7 31% 33% -7.7
09.09.23 Ponte Preta vs Sampaio Correa 0-0 41% 45% -10.3 33% 36% -10.4 27% 29% -6.8
10.09.23 Atletico GO vs EC Juventude 3-0 44% 50% -11.1 31% 33% -8.3 25% 27% -6.2
10.09.23 CRB Maceio vs EC Vitoria Salvador 6-0 41% 45% -10.8 32% 35% -9.0 28% 29% -6.4
10.09.23 Mirassol vs Botafogo SP 1-0 53% 60% -11.9 29% 32% -9.3 18% 17% 1.6
10.09.23 Sport Recife vs Criciuma EC 3-3 51% 58% -12.8 29% 31% -6.9 21% 21% -1.8
12.09.23 Avai SC vs Novorizontino 1-0 29% 31% -4.4 32% 35% -8.2 39% 44% -13.2
14.09.23 Londrina PR vs Ituano 2-2 37% 41% -8.8 32% 36% -9.2 30% 33% -8.9
16.09.23 ABC vs Sport Recife 0-1 21% 21% 2.8 30% 32% -5.5 48% 56% -14.9
16.09.23 Botafogo SP vs Atletico GO 1-0 31% 32% -4.2 33% 36% -8.7 36% 42% -12.4
16.09.23 Criciuma EC vs Mirassol 2-1 40% 43% -8.8 32% 35% -9.1 28% 31% -8.9
16.09.23 EC Juventude vs CRB Maceio 3-1 45% 51% -11.4 31% 34% -9.5 23% 24% -4.2
16.09.23 Vila Nova-GO vs Ponte Preta 1-1 55% 62% -12.4 28% 30% -7.4 17% 17% 3.1
17.09.23 EC Vitoria Salvador vs Avai SC 3-0 51% 57% -11.4 29% 31% -7.5 20% 21% -2.7
19.09.23 Novorizontino vs Ceara Sporting Club 4-1 49% 56% -11.8 30% 32% -7.9 21% 22% -2.1
20.09.23 Sampaio Correa vs Vila Nova-GO 2-1 34% 37% -8.7 34% 38% -10.7 32% 36% -9.1
23.09.23 Atletico GO vs Criciuma EC 3-1 49% 56% -12.4 29% 30% -5.8 23% 24% -4.2
23.09.23 Chapecoense vs Ceara Sporting Club 1-1 39% 43% -10.7 32% 35% -8.7 29% 31% -6.8
23.09.23 CRB Maceio vs Guarani SP 1-0 42% 48% -10.8 31% 34% -8.8 26% 28% -6.0
23.09.23 Ponte Preta vs Mirassol 0-3 28% 29% -1.4 33% 36% -8.9 39% 44% -12.9
Showing the 100 most recent of 1010 evaluated matches.

Home Ratings

20 teams
Home team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Novorizontino 1968.52
2 CRB Maceio 1911.77
3 EC Juventude 1898.03
4 Atletico GO 1882.18
5 Cuiaba 1875.90
6 Criciuma EC 1862.53
7 Fortaleza EC 1861.41
8 Vila Nova-GO 1838.97
9 Goias EC 1811.07
10 Ceara Sporting Club 1806.60
11 Operario Ferroviario EC 1791.06
12 Sport Recife 1783.63
13 Nautico 1772.14
14 Botafogo SP 1764.12
15 Athletic Club SJdR/MG 1763.93
16 Londrina PR 1720.13
17 Avai SC 1718.81
18 Sao Bernardo FC 1716.28
19 America MG 1682.61
20 Ponte Preta 1429.65

Away Ratings

20 teams
Away team ratings and rankings based on historical performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Novorizontino 1834.18
2 Criciuma EC 1804.09
3 Fortaleza EC 1803.59
4 CRB Maceio 1800.53
5 EC Juventude 1788.99
6 Atletico GO 1785.28
7 Cuiaba 1765.32
8 Sport Recife 1757.18
9 Vila Nova-GO 1756.55
10 Goias EC 1729.25
11 Operario Ferroviario EC 1726.79
12 Ceara Sporting Club 1726.69
13 Sao Bernardo FC 1708.65
14 Avai SC 1685.14
15 Botafogo SP 1668.84
16 Athletic Club SJdR/MG 1663.37
17 Londrina PR 1618.48
18 Nautico 1617.20
19 America MG 1596.88
20 Ponte Preta 1385.33